My take on things is that Nintendo will try to do a mix of both GC and Wii strategy, to sum things up:
- a inovative/unique take on gaming that will allow it to differentiate itself, again
- fair tech for its day being profitable at a low (200-250$) but overall a "fair" price given the HW (like GC)
- try to be competitive on stuff like online
- a realization that gamers need/want more games than they can give so more 3rd party
The rumured controler (for me):
- seems like a step back if it is going to loose all the motion controls
- too expensive
- low battery
- looking at the controler and at the screen at the same time seems a bad idea
- lot of good small ideas in the foruns, but to small to be significant IMO
- after the DS/3DS/iPhone/Ipad/NGP/... it is not innovative!
So HW wise I think if you look at a low end late 2011/early2012 DX11 PC you will get a idea of the kind of raw performance you will get, plus some customizations for a better price/power/performance ratio. Personally they would be perfectly well with a custom low end liano...
On the controller I dont have problems in beliveing in a SMALL touch/hepatic screen, but I really doubt that the controler will be a "desktop" NGP. they would need a big twist if it is only the touch screen, like we knew about dual screen of the DS but we didnt knew about one of them being a touch screen.
It is very hard to predict what Nintendo will do in the controller, but I wouldnt be surprised if instead of a revolution it is a very fast paced evolution with small revolutionary elements (much like 3DS), where the innovation come not from one big thing but from a few small(er) things and all of those could have many small applications in many games to put them in a category of its own. I also doubt they will lose the motion controllers, specially not when so many devs are starting to put some nice efforts in the move generation (UFC trainer, Virtua Tennis, PS3 shooters...), and the industry in general is starting to expect it.
Still, in this, too much is possible to have any prediction...
Anyway I think that nintendo will try get a new distinctive innovation for gameplay plus FAIR hardware,online and third party (even if "easy ports") and try to increase it own IP portfolio to get some more mature gamers, with a hybrid GC/Wii strategy not very distant from 3DS.
That is because those arent bad strategy's, but incomplete one, the GC lacked a proper reason to get GC instead PS2, the Wii lacked the proper infrastructures for a long term/many games per console chance (both HW, online) maybe to much casual marketing too.