NPD June 2008

[Laa-Yosh]

And MS has so far nothing that can match KzII, whether it's a software or a hardware problem is irrelvant, they already suffering about a constant baching about their system not being potent enough to last.

You mean Killzone 2? Gears 2 is more than able to stand up to that game, both in graphics and sales appeal. In fact I'd be surprised if KZ2 can catch up to that monster, the first game sold something like 5 million copies by now on the x360.

And IMHO, Rage is going to beat them both in graphics.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Just to reign this thread back on target, KZ2 versus Gears 2 talk is totally OT and inapplicable to the NPD discussion. Suffice to say both are top draw titles with attraction for shooter fans that are likely to sell well. There's nothing to be gained from trying to argue which will outsell which. The NPD thread for the months of release will be the place to talk about these games impact on their console install bases.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

For reference,

Halo3, 3.3 million, Xbox360 527k (3.3m looks fake, more like 1.5m...)
Gears of War, 1 million, Xbox360 511K

Yeah, the FF13 announcement will just screws sony's just gained momentum.

There is something pretty bad going on if your just gained momentum from 1 game gets destroyed just by the announcement of 1 games going MP.... Its more like not having any momentum to begin with in that case, just a bump by 1 game.

 

[eastmen]

Yes and "nearly" one million means at least 900,000. She didn't say "nearly" because she was guessing, she said "nearly" because it's almost, nearly 1 million copies (according to NPD data). When I say I'm nearly 24, it doesn't mean I don't know if I'm 24, it means I'm almost 24 (within say 3 months of my birthday).

BTW we're only talking about NPD data.

Where do you get at least 900 thousand . It never says that . 850k is also near 1m . so is 999 thousand .

Its best not to read into something like that and just wait for real numbers

 

[deepbrown]

Where do you get at least 900 thousand . It never says that . 850k is also near 1m . so is 999 thousand .

Its best not to read into something like that and just wait for real numbers

Yes I agree. Anything is near 1 million. 200 is near one million. We won't be getting real numbers. We can only use our wits to extrapolate what the reality is, and with given a hell of a lot of hints. For example, Tap In below seems to using his old noggin.

This conversation is over.

 

[Tap In]

makes sense to me.

I would guess that without MGS4 that PS3 would have sold like other months this year (~ X360 sales) which would mean around 200k.

so I can easily extrapolate ~200k MGS bundles sold to make up for the difference in HW sales (~400k) so I can see ~900k+ in MGS4 sales total in this NPD

cased closed.

 

[woundingchaney]

Although arent we discrediting the 100usd off coupon at Walmart by this scenario. I know that many stores honored Walmarts offer and surely this sparked sales of the console if only for a BD player (after all I know of 3 consoles sold to me, my father, and my cousin none of which purchased MGS4 with the new console). A promotional coupon of roughly 25% of the total cost can do wonders for moving a product. I believe the offer was advertised here locally although I am unsure if it was widespread knowledge. I cant help but believe that we are underestimating the ability of Walmart to push an item (whether it be a console or toilet paper).

While the MGS4 editions were rather rare is there any information available as to how many were available for purchase??


Regardless of such precise speculation I believe it is fair to say that MGS4 sold in the vicinity of 1 million upon release (or release window), whether that vicinity is 800k or 950k I dont see it mattering much.

 

[patsu]

There is something pretty bad going on if your just gained momentum from 1 game gets destroyed just by the announcement of 1 games going MP.... Its more like not having any momentum to begin with in that case, just a bump by 1 game.

MS is obviously trying to rebuild their own momentum at the expense of Sony's.

At very high level, Sony has expected developers to go multiplatform. This is why they invested in first party studios from the get go. However, I feel that, mentally and psychologically, they are not very well prepared and even half hearted about their "go alone" effort. As in... they lack the true sense of urgency to upkeep their performance level as if there is no 3rd party exclusives. Granted, they have demonstrated marked improvement during the last few months. But there are a few key issues they need to deal with:


* Profitability vs marketshare. Make up their mind and prepare for the worst consequences. It seems that they made up their mind but are unprepared for the likely outcomes when competing against MS.


* Focus, and deliver services end-to-end from consumers' point of view. I don't know why "Life with Playstation" was announced at all. After focusing Home on the gaming experience, they should throw even more weight behind Home (to help build 3rd party content) instead of starting yet another information service.

PSP is another example. The new video store is yet another one. They have started too many shallow projects because perhaps these are started by different units but they are inter-related to each other. Engineering may become a bottleneck as a result. It's a problem with management, not necessarily engineering.


* Redefining PS3 with new experience (e.g., Game 3.0, Home, PS Eye) as opposed to relying on familiar franchises. There are MUCH challenges but they should expand and finish what they started, keep us posted, or kill them right away. e.g., What happened to PS Eye ? Why is SingStar gimped ? Can real guitars be used for Guitar Heroes using Cell ? Only Sony knows.


Other than these, I don't really mind FF going multiplatform. It's great for consumers and hopefully, new FF experiences. It also exposes Sony's weaknesses rather well (and I am happy coz I have been complaining about these deficiencies). Hopefully, they move/regroup to accelerate their momentum. Once they fixed these shortfalls, I sincerely believe that they will become a new force to be reckoned with.

To me, the multi-platform event was an unpluggable hole long known. It's called the inconvenient future as long as MS is willing to throw money while Sony's user base is not "big enough" to sustain risky development yet.

 

[NavNucST3]

My vote is that every time NPD gets released we have a sticky pointing to the gamerscore blog interview with a MSFT Business Analyst explaining NPD. I can't remember which NPD month I posted the link but here goes again. For those who have never listened to it, maybe it will answer some questions for you.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

And maybe it is, but it's a mystery to me what sort of methodology would be used to do so. Heck, does NPD even follow extraordinary events? Their model certainly doesn't require it.

As long as you have enough data, and NPD has more than enough of that, making predictions with econometric software isn't particularly hard. If your interested in having accurate predictions all the time (and i believe NPD has a high interest in having the most accurate predictions, otherwise companies would just use their own internal sales tracking.)

Anyway I could very well be wrong, but I'm going to maintain that NPD likely estimated Wal-Mart's contributions by the same scale they do every month, rather than giving them outsized consideration w/regard to the $100 promotion.

As long as NPD have enough sales data\consumer data of similar $100 promotions, making a good guesstimate with regression is not particularly hard with good accuracy (in theory, there could ofcourse be unexplained factors, but that is shown with RSS anyway.

NPD should have plenty of sales data, so it would take very little time to do some regression and get something with decent accuracy that includes the promotion, with todays econometrics software, as long as you know what you do, and as long as you have the right data, these things take very little time on a computer.

 

[patsu]

It's not that simple. Even based on your post, there are heavy assumptions on "as long as they have enough data", "similar $100 promotions". Data collection is often a problem because people don't foresee the need to collect data differently "this time round" until it's too late.

Also regression has its limitations. And yes, A LOT of data is needed. My professor usually insisted on 1-2 years worth. If it's lesser, he'd need to estimate even the raw data.

Clearly, NPD will try their best. That may be enough for people to pay for them since everyone else is so behind.

In any case, for forum discussions, you can do whatever you want since it's mostly for informal chatting.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

It's not that simple. Even based on your post, there are heavy assumptions on "as long as they have enough data", "similar $100 promotions". Data collection is often a problem because people don't foresee the need to collect data differently "this time round" until it's too late.

Im just going under the assumption that they have some access to a decent sample size of real sales data and a decent sample sized consumer panel. If they are competent at their jobs and have this, its not particularly hard to estimate sales like this with good enough accuracy.

People estimate much harder things every day with good accuracy over longer periods of time in the finance market. This should be peanuts.

Going by that NPD gets paid for their data, i assume that they are competent, if the data was rather innacurate, internal sales tracking would be used instead. (Its not like its hard to compare your own internal data vs npd numbers).

 

[patsu]

Yes I know, but innovative, hi-tech products are notorious for forecasting, unlike fast moving consumer goods.

For comparing internal numbers, that applies to the brand owners. But they are susceptible to other stuff like Bullwhip effect, which makes comparison difficult. They can use their internal numbers to weed out ridiculous data but not all errors.

These are real day to day challenges. They are not a solved problem yet.

 

[Akumajou]

I think he means that MS does not have a Spring '09 release to deflect the KZ2 hype train.

Gears 2 is going up against Resistance 2 this Winter season. KZ2 hits in February, 3 months after Gears 2, crucially after Christmas, but before Sony's Financial Year End.

I would expect Gears 2 to have a 2:1 sales ratio against Resistance 2, much like what happened with GTA4, with the size of the relative install base for each console. But these games appeal to the same demographies, fans on both sides should be satisfied. I'm looking forward to getting both titles.

Actually you also have to take into account that over time Resistance FoM sold 2 million copies and although I don't believe its receiving its fair share of coverage this year most people who played the first game are aware of Resistance 2 shipping this year so its very likely that the 2 million copies sold upon release or at least the first two months is assured.

Gears sold a million initially but sold alot more copies and may 360 people will buy it so there is no question or doubt there, I am sure MS is using XBL to advertise the living crap out of that game.

My opinion is that KzII looks better, moves better. I've the subjective feeling that I'm watching at something more advanced.
It's my opinion, just mine
(between I don't like FPS that much so I'm more attract by GeoW2 anayway).

In US only I think GeoW II can do better than that but Ms has to do what it takes

KZII and resistance are two different types of games and will offer two different types of experiences, the best kind of comparison I can give is how on 360 most people still play Halo 3 and CoD4 as the most played games so I believe its possible for PS3 online fps gameplay to be similar once both KZII and R2 have been released.

MS is obviously trying to rebuild their own momentum at the expense of Sony's.

At very high level, Sony has expected developers to go multiplatform. This is why they invested in first party studios from the get go. However, I feel that, mentally and psychologically, they are not very well prepared and even half hearted about their "go alone" effort. As in... they lack the true sense of urgency to upkeep their performance level as if there is no 3rd party exclusives. Granted, they have demonstrated marked improvement during the last few months. But there are a few key issues they need to deal with:


* Profitability vs marketshare. Make up their mind and prepare for the worst consequences. It seems that they made up their mind but are unprepared for the likely outcomes when competing against MS.


* Focus, and deliver services end-to-end from consumers' point of view. I don't know why "Life with Playstation" was announced at all. After focusing Home on the gaming experience, they should throw even more weight behind Home (to help build 3rd party content) instead of starting yet another information service.

PSP is another example. The new video store is yet another one. They have started too many shallow projects because perhaps these are started by different units but they are inter-related to each other. Engineering may become a bottleneck as a result. It's a problem with management, not necessarily engineering.


* Redefining PS3 with new experience (e.g., Game 3.0, Home, PS Eye) as opposed to relying on familiar franchises. There are MUCH challenges but they should expand and finish what they started, keep us posted, or kill them right away. e.g., What happened to PS Eye ? Why is SingStar gimped ? Can real guitars be used for Guitar Heroes using Cell ? Only Sony knows.


Other than these, I don't really mind FF going multiplatform. It's great for consumers and hopefully, new FF experiences. It also exposes Sony's weaknesses rather well (and I am happy coz I have been complaining about these deficiencies). Hopefully, they move/regroup to accelerate their momentum. Once they fixed these shortfalls, I sincerely believe that they will become a new force to be reckoned with.

To me, the multi-platform event was an unpluggable hole long known. It's called the inconvenient future as long as MS is willing to throw money while Sony's user base is not "big enough" to sustain risky development yet.

Sorry, I refuse to believe that SquareEnix "just decided" to go MP with FFXIII on a whim based on the need for more money when Microsoft is known to have thrown $50 million USD for a title just so that a former company rep can make a shocking advertisement with another tattoo.

I believe Microsoft has been getting ready for all this time and even Sony knew they could not compete with Microsoft in a bidding war as the real behind the scenes reason that Sony announced/conceded that "more 3rd party games may go multiplatform"

This years E3 is following a pattern that has worked well for Microsoft, make shocking announcements and host a game that previously did not seem to go to their console, they did it with GTAIV as a way to hurt the possibility and mindshare of PS3 in 05 and they believe they are doing it again as a way to steal the thunder of the momentum the PS3 is gathering and as damage control for the well known RRoD fiasco that is being swept under a media rug.

Anyways to stay on topic I am very surprised that MGS4 sold that low as so many people have made claims that they just purchased a PS3 bundle or the game that I know in real life and they represent but a fraction but I am far more interested to see if MGS4 will reach a certain mediocre game that sold 7 million copies called Assasins Creed in the longer run to the holidays.

 

[patsu]

Sorry, I refuse to believe that SquareEnix "just decided" to go MP with FFXIII on a whim based on the need for more money when Microsoft is known to have thrown $50 million USD for a title just so that a former company rep can make a shocking advertisement with another tattoo.

I believe Microsoft has been getting ready for all this time and even Sony knew they could not compete with Microsoft in a bidding war as the real behind the scenes reason that Sony announced/conceded that "more 3rd party games may go multiplatform"

Sure... I didn't say the decision is based on a whim. However SE did publicly declared that they need more cash (or something to that extent). It may very well be a long drawn discussion.

The funny thing here is Jack Tretton's reaction to the news. He doesn't seem well prepared at all. His own presentation was in a disarray.



Meanwhile, on a related news:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=19463

Sony Computer Entertainment president and CEO Kazuo Hirai has reaffirmed his belief that overall PlayStation 3 operations are expected to turn profitable by March 2009 - the end of Sony's 2008 fiscal year, according to a report from Japanese wire service Jiji Press.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Sorry, I refuse to believe that SquareEnix "just decided" to go MP with FFXIII on a whim based on the need for more money when Microsoft is known to have thrown $50 million USD for a title just so that a former company rep can make a shocking advertisement with another tattoo.

MS loaned $50 million.

I believe Microsoft has been getting ready for all this time and even Sony knew they could not compete with Microsoft in a bidding war as the real behind the scenes reason that Sony announced/conceded that "more 3rd party games may go multiplatform"

If MS wanted to buy it, they could have just bought SE and canned the ps3 version right? You're just assuming MS paid for it, but really its quite possible that Sony just wouldn't pay for it to be exclusive. If no one is paying, it makes no sense to remain exclusive. If MS was paying, I think you would be seeing a 360 version in Japan.

This years E3 is following a pattern that has worked well for Microsoft, make shocking announcements and host a game that previously did not seem to go to their console, they did it with GTAIV as a way to hurt the possibility and mindshare of PS3 in 05 and they believe they are doing it again as a way to steal the thunder of the momentum the PS3 is gathering and as damage control for the well known RRoD fiasco that is being swept under a media rug.

Anyways to stay on topic I am very surprised that MGS4 sold that low as so many people have made claims that they just purchased a PS3 bundle or the game that I know in real life and they represent but a fraction but I am far more interested to see if MGS4 will reach a certain mediocre game that sold 7 million copies called Assasins Creed in the longer run to the holidays.

Near 1m in the summer against a user base of less than 5 million, is not low. The clamor on the forums of a few thousand rabid fans is nothing compared to the apathy of the general public.

 

[Akumajou]

MS loaned $50 million.



If MS wanted to buy it, they could have just bought SE and canned the ps3 version right? You're just assuming MS paid for it, but really its quite possible that Sony just wouldn't pay for it to be exclusive. If no one is paying, it makes no sense to remain exclusive. If MS was paying, I think you would be seeing a 360 version in Japan.

No I never implied that MS was paying or buying the title, its obvious they cannot do that and that was never my intention however if they can loan $50 million for GTA4 they can loan $fill in the blank for Final Fantasy.

It is business, expensive business but the way the went about to announce it made me feel a deja vu effect:

E3 2003: Halo 2 is announced and dated with a tattoo

E3 2005: GTA4 is also announced and dated with a tattoo

Both presentations were intended to shock and they did.

I forget what expo it was but way back in 2000 at a GDC I believe (working from memory here) Bill Gates steps out and talks about Microsoft stuff, then he leaves and puts on a black jacket with a huge X on it and talks X-box.

E3 2008: at the end of the MS presentation SquareEnix's Yoichi Wada shows up to talk about SE games previously announced for X360, then he leaves and comes back to make a shocking announcement.

Meanwhile in the background Sony had previously announced that more 3rd party games may go MP, now while I do not believe Jack Tretton was surprised (he obviously knew it months ahead) he did feel ackward since he could not make a similar, shocking announcement like Gears or Halo or a Bungie game on PS3.

Near 1m in the summer against a user base of less than 5 million, is not low. The clamor on the forums of a few thousand rabid fans is nothing compared to the apathy of the general public.

My concern was more about how the game will do in the long run to beat the sales record a non-sequel like Assasins Creed made (of course that title had plenty of free coverage going on despite being a mediocre game) though I will reveal to you if you care to know that although I do own a PS3 I did not buy MGS4, not because I won't as I will get the game this year, I just currently am not in a situation to do so but I know alot of people offline so it did surprise me to know it was that low in sales so if for the rest of the year MGS4 just fails to sell, and show up in sales charts it will go down in history right next to Dragon Quest VIII imho.

 

[-tkf-]

The PS3 beat the 360, for the 3rd month? and with a healthy plus this time. Obviously this was helped by MGS4. The momentum we have talked about before is still on the PS3 lets hope it keeps it.

 

[Akumajou]

The PS3 beat the 360, for the 3rd month? and with a healthy plus this time. Obviously this was helped by MGS4. The momentum we have talked about before is still on the PS3 lets hope it keeps it.

Thats what I am interested in, the momentum.

Specially after being told that games like Uncharted and Ratchet and Clank Future ToD did not help sales by not make significant sales, implying that PS3 owners are not buying them or even hearing someone like Adam Sesler state that "MGS4 isn't going to be a system seller" or hearing things like "PS3 owners don't buy games ... they only buy Blu-Ray movies"

Now obviously MGS is not for everybody but I have seen the commercials in some tv channels during this month of July in the US so that has to show or reflect eventually in next NPD through the holidays and if not then its a sad, sad day in the console industry.

 

[AlphaWolf]

My concern was more about how the game will do in the long run to beat the sales record a non-sequel like Assasins Creed made (of course that title had plenty of free coverage going on despite being a mediocre game) though I will reveal to you if you care to know that although I do own a PS3 I did not buy MGS4, not because I won't as I will get the game this year, I just currently am not in a situation to do so but I know alot of people offline so it did surprise me to know it was that low in sales so if for the rest of the year MGS4 just fails to sell, and show up in sales charts it will go down in history right next to Dragon Quest VIII imho.

It's going to be virtually impossible for MGS4 to beat Assassin's creed's numbers for the US (which is what NPD covers) because the PS3 has less than half the user base AC sold to, and it sold well. Unless you mean only AC's numbers for PS3, but its ahead of that pace already.