NPD June 2008

how about we drop it? personally, i think what deepbrown said was ok... certainly nothing to make a fuss about.

 

Yep, but you didn't make the reason very clear why you would think that their pool of consumers is somehow presenting the AV-people inaccurately. I would believe that NPD has very good methods of predicting Walmart sales with more than reasonable accuracy.

 

PS2 sales:
PlayStation 2 - 188,800

 

haven't been paying much attention to PS2 sales lately... but for a system nearing its 8th year, that seems pretty good, no?

 

I think that NPD has, as you say, very good methods of predicting Wal-Mart sell through. But those methods are geared to: a) track the Wal-Mart demographics, and b) to offer a model that is consistent month to month in its statistical accuracy... thus I believe it to be more or less a static rotation. I simply don't think that the gamer/technophile sets are a large portion of the audience they track, and to note that even within this group at large, awareness of this deal was essentially concentrated within forum circles...

Let me put it like this, if NPD came out tomorrow and said that their tracking methods didn't/couldn't account for the viral phenomenon that led to an outsized amount of PS3 sales at Wal-Mart, would we be surprised?

I remember the drama that was NPD's tracking late last year around the time of the HD DVD Wal-Mart sale for example - that was a mess on the forums. Luckily there was a very clear sense outside of NPD numbers of exactly how many players Wal-Mart had sold, and this figure was used to composite an estimate with NPD's release that later was checked against Toshiba's own claims.

Here's an article I found from June 10th that speaks to the under-the-surface energy the Wal-Mart deal had: http://www.tvpredictions.com/walmart061008.htm

I'm not saying that I believe NPD couldn't have accounted for this, but I am saying that for a singular sale effecting a singular product, drawing in a lot of non-Wal-Mart shoppers, it's worth at least the mention...

...in the context of an NPD thread. Again, it's not as if I think there's any positive or negative value associated with the number of consoles Sony sold. But I'd feel remiss from an analytical standpoint if we didn't at least put issues of out-of-the-ordinary consideration on the table.

 

Sure their accuracy might suffer with certain events, but the fact is the numbers could be off either way. Perhaps they estimated higher than Wal-marts actual sell through because of the sale or perhaps lower. It's even possible that they have some idea how many bundles were allocated to wal-mart which could give them some indication.

NPD does do this for money, they've got a lot of time and effort invested, they have a number of very significant customers who pay for their services. I think its safe to assume their methods are not haphazard and it's certainly not the first time they've dealt with a sale.

 

Alpha I'm with you 100%, I'm just wondering whether the analyst(s) that covers the gaming group was cognizant of the sale and the scope of its effect. Like I said, I myself was unaware save for someone posting it on this forum, and there may be some others reading this thread that were unaware of this thing until now s well, retroactively.

Let me just harp on my old refrain that analysts... a) generally suck (it is guesswork afterall), and b) aren't even usually expert in the areas they cover. I'm a full NPD supporter because their numbers are derived statistically, but - again, you wouldn't ever see me bring up the Wal-Mart angle when it comes to the NPD's if it weren't for this sale, and the effects it had. As you say, it may have been fully compensated for though... even overcompensated. I didn't want to turn this into an issue at all.

 

If you were going to be an NPD analyst for gaming you'd be remiss if you didn't at least glance at NeoGAF.

 

I do agree with you, one would think that they would have been aware of this.

At the end of the day I could care less, I didn't think it would turn into the thread's central focus! NPD numbers are NPD numbers; it's apples to apples and I do think that they should be viewed as the numbers of record for these discussions.

 

Here's an idea. If NPD was so off, companies wouldn't be paying them for data and importantly using it for PR (good or bad numbers). Someone at MS was interviewed a while back on validity of NPD numbers. He stated that the numbers are very close to the their internal formS of tracking and thus they valid.

Carl,

How off do you think Walmart numbers are? The point is, we have no better information than NPD. Sony has not, to my knowledge, contested the NPD numbers. Let's remember than this isn't the first time or likely the last when NPD will have to deal with adversity. I'm sure they have procedures for such as these things do occur in retail land.

I'd say MGS software sold ~1million. Even a 50k +/- isn't earth shattering when taking in all the factors and comparing it overall volume.

Btw, I completely agree that analysts are a complete joke. Follow a field closely and you'll how much analysts are a joke to that community. The scary part is, people do rely on analysts for info on unfamilier fields for investment and purchase decisions. Scary.....

 

On back to NPD numbers. One thing I forgot to mention was BF:BC I figured with the "Battlefield" name and it being a shooter, it'd do a lot better. Like Rainbow Six good. Guess not. I remember EA/Dice commenting on 1million+ downloads. Guess it didn't take off? I bought a copy btw. Will hold onto it till the patch and see how the community is but if that is coming out during Holiday season, I might as well sell or trade while it still has value. Too many fresh games coming out later. Anyone know when that patch is expected?

 

We definitely have no better information, and I'd have no idea where even to start estimating what "correct" Wal-Mart numbers would be, since we have no idea how much of the sales NPD has ascribed to them to begin with.

I just wanted to raise a point... I surrender!

 

Houston, we have a problem... customer interest dropping rapidly. Need price cut?

Seriously, MS should already be worried about this. They're dead in Japan, falling back in Europe, and the PS3's far from realizing its full sales potential. If the 360 is lacking now, then what are they going to do against a sub-$300 console with GT5 next year?

 

Yes and "nearly" one million means at least 900,000. She didn't say "nearly" because she was guessing, she said "nearly" because it's almost, nearly 1 million copies (according to NPD data). When I say I'm nearly 24, it doesn't mean I don't know if I'm 24, it means I'm almost 24 (within say 3 months of my birthday).

BTW we're only talking about NPD data.

 

I strongly agree.
The priceis need now, and they have to make people dream about theirs up coming titles.
GT5 will have a huge impact in Europe, absolutely huge.
And MS has so far nothing that can match KzII, whether it's a software or a hardware problem is irrelvant, they already suffering about a constant baching about their system not being potent enough to last.
(ie it's clearly not my opinion, but you can read a bunch of time every day on any gaming site...)

They needto react on both fronts soft/hard, (i don't think that they sleeping on the soft front but they need to inform gamers better).

 

I think Gears of War 2 is a close match to KZ2.

 

Goon numbers for Sony it's PS3 game sales should do much better now that trophies can be included.

 

I think he means that MS does not have a Spring '09 release to deflect the KZ2 hype train.

Gears 2 is going up against Resistance 2 this Winter season. KZ2 hits in February, 3 months after Gears 2, crucially after Christmas, but before Sony's Financial Year End.

I would expect Gears 2 to have a 2:1 sales ratio against Resistance 2, much like what happened with GTA4, with the size of the relative install base for each console. But these games appeal to the same demographies, fans on both sides should be satisfied. I'm looking forward to getting both titles.

 

Just a note: GT5 may be delayed into 2010 -- in the meantime GT5 would get upgrades.

 

My opinion is that KzII looks better, moves better. I've the subjective feeling that I'm watching at something more advanced.
It's my opinion, just mine
(between I don't like FPS that much so I'm more attract by GeoW2 anayway).

In US only I think GeoW II can do better than that but Ms has to do what it takes