NPD June 2008

Status
Not open for further replies.
Next month hardware will be interesting to watch, MGS4 residuals vs 360 20GB sales.

It's going to be virtually impossible for MGS4 to beat Assassin's creed's numbers for the US (which is what NPD covers) because the PS3 has less than half the user base AC sold to, and it sold well. Unless you mean only AC's numbers for PS3, but its ahead of that pace already.

How did AC sell in US?
 
Houston, we have a problem... customer interest dropping rapidly. Need price cut?

Seriously, MS should already be worried about this. They're dead in Japan, falling back in Europe, and the PS3's far from realizing its full sales potential. If the 360 is lacking now, then what are they going to do against a sub-$300 console with GT5 next year?

Er... dropping rapidly? Compare June 2007 NPD to June 2008 NPD. MS are up 11%.
 
Thats what I am interested in, the momentum.

Specially after being told that games like Uncharted and Ratchet and Clank Future ToD did not help sales by not make significant sales, implying that PS3 owners are not buying them or even hearing someone like Adam Sesler state that "MGS4 isn't going to be a system seller" or hearing things like "PS3 owners don't buy games ... they only buy Blu-Ray movies"

Now obviously MGS is not for everybody but I have seen the commercials in some tv channels during this month of July in the US so that has to show or reflect eventually in next NPD through the holidays and if not then its a sad, sad day in the console industry.

I think the "Game X did not help sales of Hardware" discussion has been doing a few rounds. One of the things that we can´t measure, is how would the PS3 have done without those titles? I think the software is there, the good titles just has to keep on dropping every month now to keep the momentum going.

As a weird sidenote, a friend of mine said "the next console i want is a Wii". I then said to him, but the games you play most is on the Playstation? Specifically R&C.

I asked him what he wanted with a Wii, and he didnt have a clear answer. For some reason the Wii just has a that "it´s the one i should get" message in so many peoples mind when they want to pickup a console.
 
How did AC sell in US?

It did 1.87 million on the 360 alone by end of 2007 (2 months). It's first month was ~400k for PS3. So it was probably around 2.5 million in the US last year, maybe another 500k since (price drops etc).

MGS4 will need over 50% penetration to match it.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
It did 1.87 million on the 360 alone by end of 2007 (2 months). It's first month was ~400k for PS3. So it was probably around 2.5 million in the US last year, maybe another 500k since (price drops etc).

I guess that's the benefit of releasing a title early in a consoles life cycle before the bar has really been set. Assassin's Creed is a very ambitious title that really did look next-gen. It's not spectacular but I think the concept and the look generated a lot of interest.
 
Sorry, I refuse to believe that SquareEnix "just decided" to go MP with FFXIII on a whim based on the need for more money when Microsoft is known to have thrown $50 million USD for a title just so that a former company rep can make a shocking advertisement with another tattoo.

That money will be paid pack from GTA4 DLC profits. It's basicaly a zero interest loan. Considering the development costs of the game I can see how the studio needed some more money.
Making it sound like MS payed off Rockstar is FUD...
 
Er... dropping rapidly? Compare June 2007 NPD to June 2008 NPD. MS are up 11%.

Of the ~ 650K people willing to pay $400 for a game console, only a third decided to go for the Xbox.

I do realize that on first sight the boost in PS3 sales is mostly an effect of MGS4's release - but at this point in its life cycle (close to halfway point) a console should be selling a lot better then the Xbox360 does. It has a huge games library and a very promising future with a lot of AAA franchises migrating to the platform. It has amazing multimedia features with the Live Marketplace already, and the Netflix stuff should make it look even better. It should be a very appealing purchase, and yet its sales basically stagnate.

Microsoft will never get near even the half of PS2's marketshare if they don't start to move units seriously, especially not if they allow Sony to get their stuff together and start releasing high quality exclusive titles. MS is lucky that GT5 is still beyond the horizon, that game's going to be a monster of a system seller particularly in Europe. It's hard to judge the potential of titles like Resistance/Motorstorm 2 and even KZ2, but 2009 is actually really looking like a strong year for the PS3.

The answer is just as obvious as it has been for many months now, Microsoft should drop the price on the Premium unit. I wonder how long it'll take.
 
Final Fantasy XIII going multiplatform is not a cause, but an effect of the past 3 years. It should be pretty obvious and I can't understand the debate about it. The math has been clear even a year ago and it only got simpler - there aren't enough PS3 users in the West to support a title with a budget of this magnitude. Particularly when combined with the small japanese user base.

Ever since we've seen Devil May Cry, Silent Hill, Resident Evil and especially GTA appear on the Xbox, it should have been clear that the time for third party exclusives is over. Even MGS4 is almost guaranteed to take this step within the next year - if it's worth releasing Bioshock this late on the PS3, imagine how much money MGS4 could make on a 20+ million user base.

So no need for conspiracy theories, just do the math, really.
 
That money will be paid pack from GTA4 DLC profits.
Revenues not profits. Otherwise it would be really tough. MS got $1 or so from $10 Gears DLC.
It's basicaly a zero interest loan.
Mostly refundable advanced payment.
Making it sound like MS payed off Rockstar is FUD...

But they did, and you don't need to defend them, it's just a much better deal for MS than people seem to think.
 
Of the ~ 650K people willing to pay $400 for a game console, only a third decided to go for the Xbox.
nicely put ;)
I do realize that on first sight the boost in PS3 sales is mostly an effect of MGS4's release - but at this point in its life cycle (close to halfway point) a console should be selling a lot better then the Xbox360 does. It has a huge games library and a very promising future with a lot of AAA franchises migrating to the platform. It has amazing multimedia features with the Live Marketplace already, and the Netflix stuff should make it look even better. It should be a very appealing purchase, and yet its sales basically stagnate.
I think that the product somewhat suffers from bad reputation especially in Europe.
And as Brand Sony is clearly stronger on this market then...
Microsoft will never get near even the half of PS2's marketshare if they don't start to move units seriously, especially not if they allow Sony to get their stuff together and start releasing high quality exclusive titles. MS is lucky that GT5 is still beyond the horizon, that game's going to be a monster of a system seller particularly in Europe. It's hard to judge the potential of titles like Resistance/Motorstorm 2 and even KZ2, but 2009 is actually really looking like a strong year for the PS3.
Agreed too, Sony has clearly managed to regain momemtum, they even managed to sell an outstanding number of Haze copies in regard to title quality.
Confidence in the brand is still strong, lot of people are waiting lower price to buy a "nextgen".
By it's brand strengh and its attitude in regard to upcoming games sony manages to keep ps2 owners focus on the ps3 without considering too much what competition offers.

They have a really strong 2009 line up, in this reagrd MS is not culprit to have advert the titles coming for this fall but have to good glimpse at what is coming next during the remaining 2008 gaming event.

Between with almost announced Too human failure (supposed to be a three part game) may be encountering a hole in their calendar?
The answer is just as obvious as it has been for many months now, Microsoft should drop the price on the Premium unit. I wonder how long it'll take.
Yes it's time but I feel like it's not the whole story.

Ms is at a crossing, they have an heathy enough user base to be profitable.
They are now an undisputable actor of this market.
the machine is reaching more or less its mid life and I feel like it's still not clear for them after which market they are running after.
I guess it's time for a reality check:
Sony has managed to overcome a disastrous launch.

hardware problem has hurt 360 reputation

the Wii is in its own league.

So far they have been succesful on the hardcore gamers segement and while competing on this segment with Sony I would dare to say that they have did better so far.
That their main strengh.
At some point they have to admit which goal are achievable and play theirs strenghts.
I belivee in Sony comments, a lot of gamers are still waiting, the incredible succes of the Wii must not hide this.
It's more and more liely that this gen will be long for both Sony and Ms.


So can they beat Nintendo at its game it's clear that they can't.
Can they beat Sony at its game?
I don't think so a draw is a more likely scenario (and not a given).
But they can make money and add strenght to their brand.
Social/party gaming push is fine but it won't make the 360 into a Wii.

there are in good situation to end on parity with Sony, which is a in my book great achievement for them and their future on the market.

It's time to assume this state and move to a more coherent offer.

They need the jasper, viral campaign proving its reliability would not hurt.
RroD wether is still a huge issue or not is still present in mindshare.
They need to clean it (as much as they can).

It's time for them to forget about the arcade pack, I see a lot of reason here:
for me it has not made its proof
theirs offers would be more "readable" for the costumer
Game would benefit from it.
the market has evolved patchs more than once needed.
And what should be the most significant advantage for them, they can make a lot more money on the other SKU. And while their making money they are also adding strengh to their brand. Ms can't afford the live to not be significant to any of its costumers.

Then come games:
Ms IMHO need one more "top level" studio, wether they buy it or have a "special relation with it they need it.
Exclusives are THE big differentiating factors for gamers, nothing new here.
Especially as editor have realised that their hurting themselves more than anything else when they provide "better" games on the 360. The advantage of the 360 is diminishing on this front.

So MS need to focus and it must mostly translate into games.
They have FFXIII now...

So the exclusive war must begins!!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Final Fantasy XIII going multiplatform is not a cause, but an effect of the past 3 years. It should be pretty obvious and I can't understand the debate about it. The math has been clear even a year ago and it only got simpler - there aren't enough PS3 users in the West to support a title with a budget of this magnitude. Particularly when combined with the small japanese user base.

Ever since we've seen Devil May Cry, Silent Hill, Resident Evil and especially GTA appear on the Xbox, it should have been clear that the time for third party exclusives is over. Even MGS4 is almost guaranteed to take this step within the next year - if it's worth releasing Bioshock this late on the PS3, imagine how much money MGS4 could make on a 20+ million user base.

So no need for conspiracy theories, just do the math, really.

Off topic:
But this doesn't explain why they didn't release smaller titles (exclusive or not) to boost hw sales first.
Looks to me like the rest of japanese developers, they were never keen to support the ps3 all along.
 
Laa Yosh is right on the money (as he tends to be every month). It's not that the 360 is failing, it's just not setting the world on fire. All the pieces are in place except... price. It has lots to offer generalist gamers except being a relatively disposable price. The "price drops" we saw recently were a start but IMO it won't make a lasting or real dent.
 
Isn't XB360 tracking XB1's sales pretty closely, something like 25% up? That's the real issue here - MS aren't greatly branching out to a wider audience. They've 'niched' their brand and aren't getting appeal outside of it. That's why they've gone with 'Lips' and 'At The Movies' at E3, to try to develop traction outside of the existing core XB fanbase. In this respect, AAA titles like Gears 2 aren't actually going to help them. They're not going to net a needed broader demographic through a high-class shooter. PS3 on the other hand is mostly being held back by price, it seems to me. Thankfully for MS, Sony aren't shifting theiur stance there, so they have the opportunity to add to their library and offer a system that offers something for everyone at a more palatable price. I dare say though that if they can't turn things around this year, they never will, maybe not even on a new box.

It's very interesting how both MS and Sony have apparently fumbled their great opportunities at the start of this gen!
 
Of the top 20 selling titles, blu-ray sales accounted for 12%.

I read that as the top 20 Blu-ray titles sold 12% of those same 20 titles combined on DVD and Blu-ray, but the actual top 20 DVDs only list would of course have different titles. Batman Begins was released 2006 on DVD and this list compares the new Blu-ray release against a sales of two year old DVD title. I don't know the DVD vs BD release dates of the other 19 titles, but at worst case this list has the current 20 biggest Blu-ray movies against 20 random DVD-titles (of course the list isn't the worst case, but you get the picture). Batman alone screws the marketshare numbers quite a bit.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top