NPD June 2008

[AlphaWolf]

I read that as the top 20 Blu-ray titles sold 12% of those same 20 titles combined on DVD and Blu-ray, but the actual top 20 DVDs only list would of course have different titles. Batman Begins was released 2006 on DVD and this list compares the new Blu-ray release against a sales of two year old DVD title. I don't know the DVD vs BD release dates of the other 19 titles, but at worst case this list has the current 20 biggest Blu-ray movies against 20 random DVD-titles (of course the list isn't the worst case, but you get the picture). Batman alone screws the marketshare numbers quite a bit.

You are probably right, but I'm not sure the top 20 list would be all that different. Batman Begins was just also released in a special edition pack for DVD. While that might not make it a #1 DVD title for the week I'm sure it managed top 20 as I don't think there was anything remotely big out on DVD last week (well almost 2 weeks now). Blu-ray accounted for 7.3% of sales in $, meaning probably 5% or less in volume.

But I'm not sure what this discussion is even doing in an NPD thread.

 

[catisfit]

Kudos to MGS4 for bagging top spot, despite effectively selling to only 1/5 of the market in the US.

It seems to me MS need to decide which of the Wii or PS3 they really want to compete with.

 

[AlphaWolf]

It seems to me MS need to decide which of the Wii or PS3 they really want to compete with.

I'll look for you to bag on Sony when they announce a casual title.

MS is way out in front in the US for the traditional gaming market (sports/action/shooters/racing/fighting), if they want to pick up market share in the US its going to be in the casual market. MS could probably sneak a geow2 into stores without mentioning it and still sell 2m+ copies, but the casual crowd might need a bit more enticing.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

You are probably right, but I'm not sure the top 20 list would be all that different. Batman Begins was just also released in a special edition pack for DVD. While that might not make it a #1 DVD title for the week I'm sure it managed top 20 as I don't think there was anything remotely big out on DVD last week (well almost 2 weeks now). Blu-ray accounted for 7.3% of sales in $, meaning probably 5% or less in volume.

Yep the list is probably quite similar for both formats, but Batman is listed as both the normal version and the new gift set version. So it definately helps Blu-ray numbers, Patsu did mention that though. I think the Blade Runner collection and the Planet Earth box set also favour Blu-ray in a big way.

The numbers you posted give far more accurate picture of the situation.

hmm.. Even the Cloverfield was released two months earlier on DVD, April vs June to be exact, so no wonder it has pretty high Blu-ray marketshare.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

A lot of the current discussion isn't really on topic. I'm getting the impression this thread has run its course and would be better served locked up so discussions about other topics get placed in the sorts of places people would actually look for them . I'll keep it open for now pending a return to sales number talk.

 

[patsu]

That 12% is unit sales, not revenue sales (The URL has a footnote that indicated "Top 20 unit volume").

The studios are experimenting with various approaches for both Blu-ray and digital downloads. Both channels received (or will receive) some "timed exclusives" to combat piracy and also maximize revenue. Your Cloverfield example is only one of them.

This sub-thread should probably be moved to the other Sony strategy thread. Shifty, would you be able to help ?

The Batman movies (two of them) occupy #1 and #2 on the Top 20 DVD list and the Top 20 Blu-ray list, except that the order is reversed.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i7c9fb5e8533a7a9ca31ca180d18fbead


EDIT: Or you can delete my posts here. I can repost in the other thread.

 

[Nesh]

If there is one console that desperately needs a price drop is the PS3

 

[Archgamer]

If there is one console that desperately needs a price drop is the PS3

Sony is looking to turn green next fiscal year and can do so if they keep the 399 price tag through the holidays. It has the momentum right now.

 

[-tkf-]

If there is one console that desperately needs a price drop is the PS3

Okay, maybe because you need one?

Right now it´s actually selling and doing better than it used to do, i wouldn´t drop the price unless i had some serious savings done on the manufactoring price.

 

[Nesh]

Sony is looking to turn green next fiscal year and can do so if they keep the 399 price tag through the holidays. It has the momentum right now.

Its time they start boosting their momentum. Its userbase that ensures the health of the product. Their momentum is slim. It is not big enough to be considered secure.

All they are doing is try to convince people that the price is reflective of value.

But sometimes you need to have a price that is low enough to turn their heads and see what that value is all about.

Also Sony still has many holes to fill before it is considered a certain buy. So far it doesnt convey the difference in value that Sony wants to present between their product and MS's.

Sony has all the room to deliver a superb experience both gaming and non-gaming related. Their PSN inteface is brilliant for example, and it shows how brilliant it can become. Its potential though havent been reached. But Sony moves very slowly with their content. Their internal cross functionality still isnt there yet and as focused as MS's.

Considering that Sony is doing that good in worldwide sales, despite underdelivering in some areas compared to MS and with such a price, is a two sided sign. It shows that Sony has the opportunity to increase their appeal and userbase a lot with a lower price point now that they can. But at the same time it shows that they can lose that opportunity by strategic moves from the competition.

The more they wait, while the competition makes their move both in price and service improvements the more this opportunity gap is narrowed.

Sony gives me the impression (right or wong) that it prefers to wait and make their own predictions while they discount the competition's strategies. Which is outright wrong

And I am surprised that Sony ignores factors they aknowledge that helped them with their previous systems. One of which is exclusive content from third party support or acquiring titles that were originally exclusive to another platform.

From a strategic point, third party exclusive content and support makes huge sense than relying excessively or solely on first party support. It reduces personal risk, it reduces the amount of investment needed to create an exclusive content and it helps shift focus where it is needed like for example the Playstation Network Serviceability and content. Additionally it passes the message to the consumer that the product is healthy and indeed supported by others than just the company who wants to sell it for their own interest.

MS did what Sony did with the PS1 and that was to approach third party developers and acquire big thrid party titles.

Since Sony isnt commited to this as much anymore (or so it seems) a more attractive price that may boost momentum and turn heads towards the console sounds like a good option to me. And one thing it can do for sure is reduce uncertainty and perceived risk from developers. Because although the PS3 isnt as big a success as the PS1 or PS2, some big developers do aknowledge Sony for their older generation success. If a huge improvement is made on sales, it will improve expectations regarding the console's success and health and support will be encouraged and provided with less relactance.

 

[Rangers]

One of the things that always strikes me about NPD is having two HD consoles makes them seem a lot less succesful than they are.

Consider June, combined (let us imagine there was no PS3 only 360, or no 360 only PS3 and the combined HD console sales all shifted to the remaining platform, not much of a stretch ) PS3 and 360 sold 620k units. Suddenly, they are almost as large as the Wii market, and probably much larger in terms of hardware $. Suddenly the perception of the HD market as some sort of failure seems mistaken.

Sure, the Wii is STILL supply constrained, but nonetheless things would seem a lot different each month.

 

[Xenus]

I swear the fact that nintendo was supply constrained for so long do to their simple inability to push out more then 1 million a month for a year in a half seems to have helped them. It seems to be a self fulfilling cycle. Wii is sold out. It must be the hot thing. I must buy one and on continues the self perpetuation.

 

[Arwin]

Except that this month the PS3 actually did double of what it did last month, and Wii + PS2 seem to sell about double PS3 and 360 ...

Mind you this is coming from someone who looks down at the Wii as a gamer. But it's what the people seem to want. I'm thinking that they're stupid, but really and obviously they're not ... Well not completely, anyway - a lot of people are using the Wii to get into gaming, and who can blame them for that? More than anything I"m going to be angry at Microsoft and Sony if they don't take the new controller method on board in the near future. Especially with WiiMotionPlus, we've reached a level of technical proficiency that I am satisfied with. Combine it with the graphics and physics prowess of a HD console and there's no telling what great things we can do. I'm grateful that at least the sixaxis has some motion controls on board, because a lot of the games I really like happen to use that feature well and even on the PS3 it helps bring in the casuals, even if they don't know the PS3 has this functionality as well ...

 

[Xenus]

I want my VR videogames like in Star Ocean 3.

 

[scificube]

Except that this month the PS3 actually did double of what it did last month, and Wii + PS2 seem to sell about double PS3 and 360 ...

Mind you this is coming from someone who looks down at the Wii as a gamer. But it's what the people seem to want. I'm thinking that they're stupid, but really and obviously they're not ... Well not completely, anyway - a lot of people are using the Wii to get into gaming, and who can blame them for that? More than anything I"m going to be angry at Microsoft and Sony if they don't take the new controller method on board in the near future. Especially with WiiMotionPlus, we've reached a level of technical proficiency that I am satisfied with. Combine it with the graphics and physics prowess of a HD console and there's no telling what great things we can do. I'm grateful that at least the sixaxis has some motion controls on board, because a lot of the games I really like happen to use that feature well and even on the PS3 it helps bring in the casuals, even if they don't know the PS3 has this functionality as well ...

I think that is should also be consider who is buying the console and for what purpose.

Besides being cheaper than the other consoles Nintendo benefits greatly from being perceived and "family safe." Whether true or not this is the perception I continually come across.

Sony has responded highlighting PS2 titles as "family safe" in turn. Not to mention PS2 is a fairly cheap piece of kit to pick up.

I happen to believe this is has a much to do with Wii's success in NA and EU as the motion controls.

In the next generation I expect Sony and MS to rebrand the PS3 and X360 as cheap family safe machines while they again target the rabid hardcore base with their latest and greatest.

It's not a bad strategy. Even with the runaway success of the Wii the amount of market share consumed by hard core gamers is rather significant and the hard core is the group willing to pay a premium for their entertainment needs making the introduction of new expensive hardware to the market as always...painful...but palatable. All bases are covered quite nicely. What will also be interesting is what Nintendo will do when the PS3 and X360 begin to retail for $150-$200. It will be difficult to undercut that on the price front and there will still be a need to out perform the old guard. To Nintendo's credit Sony and MS will have to continue to develop family friendly titles which they sorely lack to keep PS3/X360 afloat while Nintendo has that sort of software stock piled and ready to go.

At least I find it interesting to see what will happen.

 

[Rangers]

Partial Canadian June NPD

http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/07/18/video-game-sales.html

1. DS=68k
2. Wii=64.5k
3. PS3=39k

No other hardware given.

That looks like ~10% of USA NPD. If so 360 probably has about 1m LTD in Canada, PS3 500k etc.

Heres also a top 20 software, should be reliable, no numbers after 10

01 NE [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4, Konami: 774,647 (775k)
02 NE [NDS] Guitar Hero On Tour: 422,300 (422k)
03 NE [360] Ninja Gaiden II: 372,700 (373k)
04 03 [Wii] Fit: 372,700 (1.06m)
05 05 [Wii] Play: 359,100 (6.12m)
06 NE [360] Battlefield: Bad Company: 346,800 (347k)
07 02 [Wii] Mario Kart Wii: 322,400 (2.23m)
08 NE [Wii] LEGO Indiana Jones: 294,500 (295k)
09 NE [NDS] LEGO Indiana Jones: 267,800 (268k)
10 NE [PS2] LEGO Indiana Jones: 260,300 (260k)
11 01 [360] Grand Theft Auto IV
12 NE [Wii] Rock Band
13 06 [Wii] Super Smash Bros: Brawl
14 NE [Wii] Guitar Hero: Aerosmith
15 RE [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games
16 NE [360] Guitar Hero: Aerosmith
17 NE [PS2] Guitar Hero: Aerosmith
18 15 [NDS] New Super Mario Bros
19 04 [PS3] Grand Theft Auto IV
20 NE [360] LEGO Indiana Jones

 

[catisfit]

I'll look for you to bag on Sony when they announce a casual title.

It's more than just announcing a casual title. It's undercutting the Wii price point. It's hiring David Gosen from Nintendo Europe to lead the focus on the casual market. It's an advertising campaign proclaiming the 360 as the cheapest console, with not a Halo 3 or a Gears of War in sight. All of these things have happened in the UK, and equivalents will presumably happen in the US shortly if they haven't done so already.

That shift in focus doesn't really make sense when you look at the last 6 months NPD:

3,483,000 Wii
1,608,100 PS3
1,341,000 360

In light of that I think diverting focus from the core gamer (Aaron Greenberg has already proclaimed victory here ) and heading after the casual crowd is at best premature and at worst self-damaging.

 

[bkilian]

Of the ~ 650K people willing to pay $400 for a game console, only a third decided to go for the Xbox.

I do realize that on first sight the boost in PS3 sales is mostly an effect of MGS4's release - but at this point in its life cycle (close to halfway point) a console should be selling a lot better then the Xbox360 does. It has a huge games library and a very promising future with a lot of AAA franchises migrating to the platform. It has amazing multimedia features with the Live Marketplace already, and the Netflix stuff should make it look even better. It should be a very appealing purchase, and yet its sales basically stagnate.

Well, if you look at it in terms of the fact that the 360 is still selling better than it did last year, with essentially only a $50 price drop, and if you think of it in terms of "10 year life cycle", MS can take their time getting to $199 and below (Where the sales really pick up). Also, comparing an outlier month (One where the software releases are very unbalanced) doesn't say anything about the consumer trends.

I guess that's the benefit of releasing a title early in a consoles life cycle before the bar has really been set. Assassin's Creed is a very ambitious title that really did look next-gen. It's not spectacular but I think the concept and the look generated a lot of interest.

I loved Assassin's Creed. It's one of my favorite titles, and one of the few games I've ever finished. Apparently a lot of other people did too.

Isn't XB360 tracking XB1's sales pretty closely, something like 25% up? That's the real issue here - MS aren't greatly branching out to a wider audience.
...
It's very interesting how both MS and Sony have apparently fumbled their great opportunities at the start of this gen!

The 360 is tracking at higher than the XBox, despite being significantly more expensive. Two of the main reasons people didn't pick up the XBox were cost and lack of games. Lack of games is no longer a problem, but cost is still prohibitive. Luckily we're in a much better position this go-round to control the cost of the device.

It's more than just announcing a casual title. It's undercutting the Wii price point. It's hiring David Gosen from Nintendo Europe to lead the focus on the casual market. It's an advertising campaign proclaiming the 360 as the cheapest console, with not a Halo 3 or a Gears of War in sight. All of these things have happened in the UK, and equivalents will presumably happen in the US shortly if they haven't done so already.

That shift in focus doesn't really make sense when you look at the last 6 months NPD:

3,483,000 Wii
1,608,100 PS3
1,341,000 360

In light of that I think diverting focus from the core gamer (Aaron Greenberg has already proclaimed victory here ) and heading after the casual crowd is at best premature and at worst self-damaging.

Except none of the things you mention happened in the US, where the NPD results come from. We have no clue what the european campaign of price cuts and advertising has done to the sales there.

 

[catisfit]

Except none of the things you mention happened in the US, where the NPD results come from. We have no clue what the european campaign of price cuts and advertising has done to the sales there.

Let me help you out then. The UK is the last European country where the 360 has any decent lead over the PS3 to speak of (~1m).

The 360 price cut/advertising/shift in focus occurred in week 11, and saw 360 sales increase by 40% directly afterwards. This still wasn't quite enough to match PS3 sales, although it closed the gap considerably.

The PS3 was 10% up overall on the first 21 weeks of 2008. Of course that doesn't quite reach up to the release of MGS4, so it's likely to be higher now.

In comparison, if we exclude the June NPD and hence MGS4 effects, the PS3 is just over 7% higher on sales than 360 on NPDs Jan-May, so the US looks like it could be heading to the same situation the UK was in a few months ago.

Therefore, as the numbers are becoming similar, and Microsoft's focus on the casual gamer seems to be getting more emphasis in the US as it did in the UK, the UK could be a useful indicator of what may happen in the US in the future, could it not?

Including MGS4 in the US, the PS3 is 19.9% higher than 360 in sales this year. Is it wise for Microsoft to lose focus on the PS3 when it's turning these numbers? That is my question.

 

[assen]

The 360 price cut/advertising/shift in focus occurred in week 11, and saw 360 sales increase by 40% directly afterwards. This still wasn't quite enough to match PS3 sales, although it closed the gap considerably.

You conveniently forgot to mention that that was the week when GT5 Prologue launched...