NPD June 2008

[Carl B]

Err, how do we know that?

What is a source on MGS4 bundle numbers?

We know that because NPD registers SKU tracking at check-out; the bundle registers as a PS3, not an MGS4 game. The MGS4 bundle numbers are a subset of the total PS3's sold - we don't have the exact figures, so it's partly guesswork.

 

[RobertR1]

oh. 1 of those 80GB bundles is me. And yay! for no controller drops with the DS3.

 

[patsu]

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasnt this a $100 gift card offer (I honestly don't know), which cannot be used on the current purchase or was this $100 off out the door. Without pigeon-holing everyone that shops at Wal-Mart as poor (probably too late on my part for that) I am saying that expensive electronics are not necessarily what they are known for moving, of course, I just looked at their website and they have the 360 pro on the front-page so maybe I am way off. Anyway, my original "argument" was that NPD should be able to account for bumps if the participants are representative of the market as a whole.

The "market" should also include some Blu-ray enthusiasts who flocked to the deal. June is a weird month because I think 80Gb PS3 became more available. And of course the MGS4 bundle helps too. Yet there were stock outs in different areas (depends on Sony's allocation). In the midst of all this, the Walmart number is largely based on estimates since the beginning.

The PS3 demand model would somehow figure it all out by looking at old figures.

 

[eastmen]

We know that because NPD registers SKU tracking at check-out; the bundle registers as a PS3, not an MGS4 game. The MGS4 bundle numbers are a subset of the total PS3's sold - we don't have the exact figures, so it's partly guesswork.

Yes but there are 2 ps3 skus . So how do we know how many were metal gear solid 4 skus .

The game could have not hit 1m the first month

 

[Rangers]

Err, how do we know that?

What is a source on MGS4 bundle numbers?

Yes and I thought I heard something like 34k MGS4 bundles, plus as far as I know amazon sold out of them nearly instantly and didn't get replenished. This had led me to believe MGS4 bundles were pretty low numbers.

But I dont really have any hard evidence either, and I wasn't paying that much attention.

But assuming 230k+ MGS4 bundles seems like a lot to me without a hard source.

Anyways great month for PS3, 360 needs a price drop badly. Perhaps this will spur MS into action, they did drop in early august last time after all.

Next month will be interesting, no more Wal Mart $100 gift cards, no MGS4/bundles, and 299 360 pro while supplies last. If 360 still loses by a significant margin next month, MS should be worried.

 

[Carl B]

Yes but there are 2 ps3 skus . So how do we know how many were metal gear solid 4 skus.

We don't know how many of them were MGS4 bundles, as previously established.

The game could have not hit 1m the first month

Right, it might not have. But why is that important?

But assuming 230k+ MGS4 bundles seems like a lot to me without a hard source.

I'm not seeing where 230k+ bundles was assumed in this thread.

 

[betan]

Yes but there are 2 ps3 skus . So how do we know how many were metal gear solid 4 skus .

The game could have not hit 1m the first month

True, maybe it did maybe not.

It probably did at least 950K though, looking at the previous month and year.

 

[eastmen]

well i'm sure it hit 1m by now.

Just saying that estimating like that isn't hte best way to go. Just use the offical numbers and thats it .

 

[deepbrown]

well i'm sure it hit 1m by now.

Just saying that estimating like that isn't hte best way to go. Just use the offical numbers and thats it .

I'm not estimating. I'm reading the source.

"The top ten software titles for the month were led unsurprisingly by Metal Gear Solid 4, which moved 774.6K unbundled units."

NPD Industry Analyst Anita Frazier "As expected, Metal Gear Solid 4 realized significant retail sales and drove PS3 hardware acquisition. While the attached media report does not include units bundled with hardware, if included MGS4 sold-through nearly 1 million units."

If this is true, that means around 200k MGS4 bundles were sold. Sounds about right.

 

[eastmen]

yes i read it too , notice how they have no defnite proof and said the word nearly. Nearly does not equal 1m and using nearly means they don't have an even semi acurate number as they would havep posted it as they did with the unbundled units.

 

[patsu]

Actually, what's more interesting to me personally is what else MGS4 help sold ? Old MGS games, T-shirts, and other merchandizes. And whether in-game advertising worked for them. But it's kinda OT.

 

[betan]

I'm not estimating. I'm reading the source unlike anyone else apparently.

True enough (for me)

 

[deepbrown]

yes i read it too , notice how they have no defnite proof and said the word nearly. Nearly does not equal 1m and using nearly means they don't have an even semi acurate number as they would havep posted it as they did with the unbundled units.

THEY? They is not the source. They is the NPD analyst. She's not guessing. She knows the numbers.

So one, we know MGS4's numbers dont include bundles, and know its actual numbers were near 1 million (which means at least 900k)

 

[eastmen]

Actually, what's more interesting to me personally is what else MGS4 help sold ? Old MGS games, T-shirts, and other merchandizes. And whether in-game advertising worked for them. But it's kinda OT.

sold alot of head sets thats for sure .

 

[Rangers]

I'm not estimating. I'm reading the source unlike anyone else apparently.

"The top ten software titles for the month were led unsurprisingly by Metal Gear Solid 4, which moved 774.6K unbundled units."

NPD Industry Analyst Anita Frazier "As expected, Metal Gear Solid 4 realized significant retail sales and drove PS3 hardware acquisition. While the attached media report does not include units bundled with hardware, if included MGS4 sold-through nearly 1 million units."

If this is true, that means around 200k MGS4 bundles were sold. Sounds about right.

Ok yeah, that is a good source, I just didn't know that.

 

[Rangers]

I'm not aware of Target doing it, not that I doubt you, but whatever the case I would be very surprised if NPD extrapolated the effects of a promotional event on the sales of a store they don't cover. Normally what they would do for Wal-Mart is to add to the NPD figures a scaled percentage of what their market share in the space is, and I would imagine that that's what they did here as well. For NPD to take a stab at how many extra PS3's Wal-Mart sold based on the $100 offer though would be going too far on their end in taking liberties with their data approximations.

I mention this dozens of times across different boards, but there was a Major Nelson podcast with a MS guy who deals with NPD once, and he said NPD has a a panel of Wal Mart customers that they poll to help extrapolate Wal Mart sales of course not just of video games but of everything down to socks. And I think the number of panelists was 30,000.

So yeah, AFAIK NPD goes to great lengths to estimate Wal Mart. When a lot of people fling around the idea that NPD doesn't even attempt to account for Wal Mart at all.

 

[eastmen]

2. with close approximation: a nearly perfect likeness.

Notice that its not ap erfect likness .

Your also using a source that estimates certian retailers .

They are guessing , it may be more accurate than other guesses as they get a large amount of data , but its still a guess and they themselves aren't sure if its 1m or not .

its very simple , the evidence of disproving oyu is in what your using as proof .

 

[obonicus]

Notice that its not ap erfect likness .

Your also using a source that estimates certian retailers .

They are guessing , it may be more accurate than other guesses as they get a large amount of data , but its still a guess and they themselves aren't sure if its 1m or not .

its very simple , the evidence of disproving oyu is in what your using as proof .

Then we should toss out NPD entirely. As was discussed earlier in the thread, the numbers they publish include Walmart data, which is based on (very) educated guesses.

 

[Carl B]

I mention this dozens of times across different boards, but there was a Major Nelson podcast with a MS guy who deals with NPD once, and he said NPD has a a panel of Wal Mart customers that they poll to help extrapolate Wal Mart sales of course not just of video games but of everything down to socks. And I think the number of panelists was 30,000.

So yeah, AFAIK NPD goes to great lengths to estimate Wal Mart. When a lot of people fling around the idea that NPD doesn't even attempt to account for Wal Mart at all.

Rangers, I'm wondering if you've read the thread through until this point; this aspect has been discussed like three times over now, including the consumer panelists.

 

[eastmen]

Then we should toss out NPD entirely. As was discussed earlier in the thread, the numbers they publish include Walmart data, which is based on (very) educated guesses.

No you should just stick to what they have said . They gave numbers for non bundled but didn't give numbers for bundled .

thats all .