I think you're close, Jon. Very close. But after reading the Ars interview
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2013/06/microsoft-defends-the-xbox-ones-licensing-used-game-policies/
It becomes clear that there's something else at work here.
In fact, after reading that interview, I'm 95% certain that those rumors about a DD only console was a very real consideration for MS, and I'll bet they went extremely far down the design path of creating a console without an optical drive before somebody made the decision that BR had to be included. Whether it was because they didn't want an all out war with retailers at this time, or whether it was because it's difficult to market an All-In-One media box right now without BR, or whatever.
Yusuf admits in the article above that the problem with the DRM confusion stems
entirely from physical disc sales.
If you examine their policies, including how to sell digital copies, how to gift digital copies, how to share digital copies with multiple "family" members, etc.. everything is based upon actually
expanding consumers' rights regarding digital property.