Ben, that is a nice speculation, but apparently they had the hardware already planned for that launch date and it was P2-400 and GF2.
Everything we saw back then clearly indicated that MS was going with an Athlon, including all of the information from those working on the project. In late 2K early '01 there was a considerable amount of discussion when MS decided to go with Intel over AMD as a supplier(AMD made public comments about it, paraphrasing, Intel was 'giving the chips away, we can't match their price point').
I have a hard time believing the claims of what the XBox would have been as concrete based on any single claim particularly when we had dozens of comments, including from the companies directly, that refute the claim you are referring to.
Even in your case, the difference between PS2 and Xbox would be so small that most people probably wouldn't bother considering that platform and went where the hype was.
No, it would likely have had a compounded effect making the PS2 look quite a bit worse at the time then it ended up looking when the XBox first hit. Using DX and PC native hardware developers were utilizing GF1 level techniques for XBox launch titles and they
still managed to easily outdo what the PS2's second/third generation titles looked like. Compare the XBox launch titles that don't use pixel shader effects to the PS2 launch titles on a visual basis. You think they can port Mafia from the PC to the PS2 without reducing the texture quality an enormous amount? GeForce1 hardware can run the game with full texture detail.
Given that ports, which most titles are today, use the PS2 as the baseline dev platform the XBox is lacking in its more advanced capabilities being taken advantage of with the exception of superior texturing. This would be no different if the XB had NV1X level hardware the only difference would be the PS2 wouldn't have the built in lead from launching earlier so the XBox would have had a legit chance at being lead dev platform.
As far as using the Naomi2 hardware, check what the non lit or single light poly throughput is for the hardware. Considering the typical amount of HW lights used, I don't think picking a platform that couldn't keep up with a GeForce1 would be a good idea. Not to mention, dealing with SH4 over x86 and the WindowsCE build over the more robust OS cores, it would have been a very bad choice. The effective fillrate is useless to discuss, this is a console not a PC. When you remove the need for bandwith to fill fillrate PVR's technology loses a lot. It is cheap, doesn't use many transistors and uses a lesser amount of bandwith for rasterization then an IMR. None of those are major factors to a console. Poly throughput most certainly is, and there the all important PR peak theoretical rate is a card that is used extensively in marketing numbers. Naomi2 comes up extremely short on that end, as does its weak texture filtering and the extremely poor texture filtering hack needed to avoid massive performance hits when utilizing trilinear filtering(particularly evident if you utilize Dot3 or other DX7 level effects).