Xbox 360 Sales Data

[Joe DeFuria]

I'm starting to wonder how big of a headstart they will actually get on Sony.

I'm still wondering when Sony will actually get around to shipping a product....

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yes, it's not initial sales as much as sustained production that counts. Assuming all XB360s and PS3s sell out, the one with the most will be the one who can make the most. The only way that won't be the case if the demand for one decreases the demand for the other, so if XB360's sell out but people want them over PS3s, PS3's will sit on the shelves and they won't get the sales.

 

[mckmas8808]

I'm still wondering when Sony will actually get around to shipping a product....

Spring 06.

 

[mckmas8808]

By this logic, they would have sold 52 million consoles in the first year (at 1 million a week).

.Sis

Sony sold about 650,000 to 700,000 PSPs the first week in NA. It's called a launch for a reason.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Gates actually said it best at CES...the first year of any console launch (assuming it's a console that people actually demand) is going to be supply constrained.

It won't be until sometime mid to late 2007 that both MS and Sony have consoles on the market that are not supply constrained. It won't actually be until then that sales number comparisons will be apples to apples.

 

[Phil]

It won't be until sometime mid to late 2007 that both MS and Sony have consoles on the market that are not supply constrained. It won't actually be until then that sales number comparisons will be apples to apples.

That really depends on how high demand is for each console and I'm still not convinced Xbox360 is going to keep selling through until then - if anything, I expect numbers to go back when PS3 debuts (that depending on how big the hype / good the software-quality and marketing and when it launches where, obviously).

 

[Joe DeFuria]

That really depends on how high demand is for each console and I'm still not convinced Xbox360 is going to keep selling through until then

I repeat, for the first year, sales are basically supply constrained.

PS3 won't be on the market (worldwide) until a year after 360 has shipped.

In other words, 360 will be supply constrained for the first year of 360's life. PS3 will then be supply constrined for the first year of PS3s life.

So it won't be until sometime late 2007 that both consoles will be in a "non supply constrained" environment.

 

[London Geezer]

X360 Japan sales aren't supply limited though, and i wouldn't be too happy about that if i were MS. Not that they care much, they can just fall back on US and EU sales but still...

 

[Phil]

I repeat, for the first year, sales are basically supply constrained. <snip>

You can repeat all you want, it's still going to be demand that's going to dictate if the console is supply constrained or not (see Japan). We can only guess at how well Xbox360 will continue [in NA / Europe if that's what you're refering to] to sell and if demand will continue to be higher than supply.

 

[London Geezer]

You can repeat all you want, it's still going to be demand that's going to dictate if the console is supply constrained or not (see Japan). We can only guess at how well Xbox360 will continue to sell and if demand will continue to be higher than supply.

WRONG! (kinda)

Demand will drive sales only up until the point where there's enough supply. If there is no supply, you can have all the demand you want, you're not gonna sell (any more than your supply dictates). And obviously we could start talking about how limited supply drives demand up and all economics theories we all know, but it's not really for this forum.

Point is, demand only dictates sales if there's enough of a product to go round for everyone wanting the product.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

You can repeat all you want, it's still going to be demand that's going to dictate if the console is supply constrained or not (see Japan).

Of course. This is why Japan was allocated the fewest units. And other territories are still waiting for their first shipments. (Supply constraints).

We can only guess at how well Xbox360 will continue to sell and if demand will continue to be higher than supply.

We do know that MS claims to be on track to sell its 5 million or so the first 6 months.

 

[pipo]

That really depends on how high demand is for each console and I'm still not convinced Xbox360 is going to keep selling through until then - if anything, I expect numbers to go back when PS3 debuts (that depending on how big the hype / good the software-quality and marketing and when it launches where, obviously).

And depending on how big the hype / good the software-quality and marketing for the 360 will be then.

And that other detail called prices.

That's always been the stated goal, 4.5 to 5.5 for June.

Missed that. I only heard the 'end of March' number.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Which seems to be the concern. They only managed to make 1.3 million units in 4 months or so.

they sold 1million in the 4 weeks following the nov 22 launch. i don't see any reason they can't sell 1.7million in the next 8 weeks.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

they sold 1million in the 4 weeks following the nov 22 launch. i don't see any reason they can't sell 1.7million in the next 8 weeks.

The only reason to think they can't is if they can't make that many. Production started end of August IIRC. That's about 4 months from start of production to 4 weeks after launch in which they sold that million (or 1.3 million, or whatever it is). That's an average of 250,000 a month. The next 2 months they need four times that output. We've no way of knowing if they've got the production up to snuff as they were having trouble with chip yields IIRC. And 1 million consoles a month seems about average for a mature production line to me. 1 million units a month 4 months after first production is a very good capacity level to attain.

Not saying it won't happen, just pointing out that it's not an easy task given the current track record of XB360 and other hardwares.

 

[scooby_dooby]

That's not a logical way to look at the #'s.

We know what they had on the 22nd, ~330,000 units. Assuming 2 weeks shipping time or so, it's logical to assume that is everything they were able to create from August > early Nov.

Then we know that in the following 5 weeks the sold around 1million units, so this is everything they have produced from early Nov > mid Dec.

So if we had to guess at a CURRENT manufacturing capacity, it would be in the range of 800k units/month.

It's also only logical to assume that production is continually ramping-up, so whatever they were producing in early Nov, they are now producing more than that, and will be producing even more in February.

They should easily hit 3mill based on the #'s for the month of Dec.

 

[Rodéric]

The "word of the street" (rather of the local videogame shop) about X360 atm, is that the X360 is a wait console until the Revolution & PS3 arrive, and that only people with a lot of money are buying it, everyone else waiting for Nintendo or Sony console...

Even heard some people saying that X360 is gonna be like the Dreamcast, but without any good game...

What I'm really interested in, is seeing the X360 sales once the Revolution and the PS3 are available...

 

[mckmas8808]

New Xbox 360 sales data from Japan

Shinobi reports that around 60,000 copies of DOA 4 are sold in Japan
during the same period around 10,000 X360 are sold
over half of the DOA4 buyers have already bought X360 before DOA4 on sale
and the total units of X360 hardware sold in Japan are less than 100,000

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/entry-10007726816.html

Well there goes that "once DOA4 comes out the X360 well sale alot more" theory. Will the same happen with there JRPGs?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Titles will have to reach a certain critical mass before Japanese gamers feel safe enough to jump on board. They don't want to get stuck with another 1 or 2-game console.

Hopefully BD and LO + DOA and the other lower profile japanese games will be enough to slowly regain the trust.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That's not a logical way to look at the #'s.

We know what they had on the 22nd, ~330,000 units. Assuming 2 weeks shipping time or so, it's logical to assume that is everything they were able to create from August > early Nov.

Where's that figure from? Surely the initial batch is North American stock + EU stock + Japanese stock, which was...800,000. 1,000,000?

So if we had to guess at a CURRENT manufacturing capacity, it would be in the range of 800k units/month.
They should easily hit 3mill based on the #'s for the month of Dec.

Going by this info
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=665711&postcount=159
they're targetting 4.5 million by June. That means 3 million between now and then, which is nearer 500,000 per month. And that means between now and the end of February, it's more likely they'll be making around 1 million units rather than 2 million. If they can make 2 million units between now and the end of the 90 day period, they should be targetting 6+ million units by June, no?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Which#'s? 330k is the sales figures for the first week in NA. 1.3mil is the total sold up to Dec.

"Going by this info
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpo...&postcount=159
they're targetting 4.5 million by June. "

You completely mis-read the information. They are SHIPPING 4.5 between NOW and JUNE. That's 750k/month. looks like I was pretty damn close, with 800k/month.

And if they've already sold 1.3million, and expect another 4.5million shipped by june, then they are predicting ~6million sold around june(1.3+4.5). The latter # is shipped, not sold, but it's probably safe to assume demand will be high enough to sell out these systems fairly quickly in june, only 7 months after launch so shipped essentially = sold.

So they are predicting 6million shipped by June, and 4.5-5.5million sold.