XBox 360 launched in Japan

[expletive]

Listen guys, just to get a few things settled before we go on:

1. The xbox 360 will be nothing but a failure, by any measure, in japan
2. THere is no series of events, pricing, software, services that can change this
3. IF you think it there is a way it can be successful, by any measure, youre foolish
4. When it actually does fail in Japan, those who thought it could be successful will look very silly and stupid (and foolish)
5. Launches of products never lie and always determine its eventual success, which only proves further the 360 will be a failure
6. No one in JP cares about mistwalker, BD, LO, and no one will buy them

Can we close this thread now?

 

[Mmmkay]

Where are the figures for number of votes?

www.gamefront.de provide the full most wanted data:

1. (1 / 1) Final Fantasy XII PS2 Square Enix 2.836
2. (3 / 5) Mother 3 GBA Nintendo 1.207
3. (4 / 4) Metal Gear Solid 4 PS3 Konami 1.203
4. (5 / 6) Biohazard 5 PS3 Capcom 1.081
5. (9 / 8) Monster Hunter 2 PS2 Capcom 769
6. (6 / 7) Kimi Kiss PS2 Enterbrain 743
7. (7 / 9) Final Fantasy III NDS Square Enix 700
8. (8 /13) Blue Dragon Xbox 360 Microsoft 588
9. (11/24) Sengoku Musou 2 PS2 Koei 543
10. (10/10) The Legend of Zelda GC Nintendo 535
11. (12/14) Devil Summoner: Kuzunoha Raidou PS2 Atlus 429
12. (13/11) Dead or Alive 4 Xbox 360 Tecmo 408
13. (14/12) Dirge of Cerberus: Final Fantasy VII PS2 Square Enix 387
14. (17/22) Genso Suikoden V PS2 Konami 376
15. (16/19) Xenosaga Episode III PS2 Namco 355
16. (20/15) Onimusha Dawn of Dreams PS2 Capcom 345
17. (19/25) Ar-Toneliko: Sekai no Owari de Shi Tsudzukeru Shoujo PS2 Banpresto 297
18. (21/21) Front Mission 5 PS2 Square Enix 285
19. (22/27) Gyakutan Saiban 4 NDS Capcom 281
20. (23/23) Okami PS2 Capcom 276

Pretty sure they're not in 'hundreds of thousands' though, given that readers have to post their submissions via mail.

 

[Nicked]

It's on Famitsu's most wanted list, it has been for a long time. I don't know how many people vote for that list, but it must be alot if these guys are buying 500,000 DS's every single week. No link right now sorry.

Isn't it about 3000 for #1? They publish the number with the poll.

http://www.360monster.com/newspost.php?id=0000000274

Thats some positive spinning Moore would be proud of.

DOA4 will continue to sell units, and it will add up to much more than 60k so lets not play stupid little games.

What constitutes much more? 200-250k would be generous for its lifetime.

It doesn't matter. I said there are at millions of gamers that want to 'play' Blue Dragon. That poll proves this, if BD can get hundreds of thousands of votes in a poll, it stands to reason that there are many others who also want to play the game, who did not partake in the poll.

Lol.

So you can't count it out, when a system is bringing in a game that ranks higher than Zelda, and only a few spots below RE5, and also happens to be an RPG, you can't count that out as a major killer app and system seller.

Neither RE5 or Zelda:TP will sell that well in Japan. Rethink reasoning?

What we're talking about is the 360 building a large enough userbase in japan that japanese DEVELOPERS feel safe releasing games for it, in addition we're talking about MS proving that JRPG's can sell well on 360.

Yeah, those titles would have to increase sales ten-fold. And sustain it. In the face of competition from the PS3 and Revolution. Thats not going to happen.

If BD sell millions worldwide

Unlikely. I'm not sure of its gameplay, but the only turn-based JRPG (which I assume it is seeing as how its "targetted" for Japanese tastes) that sells well over here in the west is Final Fantasy. It would really have to sell the Xbox360 in Japan.

I would add a third: it ties up some high profile developers, diverting their work from appearing on Sony's platform.

Who are the high-profile developers?
Mistwalker don't develop games, they're designers. Whose directors last work was a collosal failure (FF:TSW). If MS hadn't wooed the studio (and funded its whole operation) its likely they would've had very little prominence.

Can we close this thread now?

I could create an equally asinine list that snidely notes the flaws in your line of thinking, but nothing good will come of it.

 

[Nicked]

Found some numbers for Famitsu's Most Wanted:
This site has tracked the Mother 3 rankings and number of votes for 2 years.

What does it take to get to #2 on the list the week BD got #8?

1207.

I think we can rule out that as a credible source of popularity.

 

[Magnum PI]

the problem for this is that on NDS or PS2 people have plenty games to choose whereas on xbox360..
so votes for xbox360 are a lot less diluted

 

[expletive]

Found some numbers for Famitsu's Most Wanted:
This site has tracked the Mother 3 rankings and number of votes for 2 years.

What does it take to get to #2 on the list the week BD got #8?

1207.

I think we can rule out that as a credible source of popularity.

ONly if you assume that the sampling size is not statistically relevant. How do you know these results wont scale with a larger sampling?

 

[expletive]

the problem for this is that on NDS or PS2 people have plenty games to choose whereas on xbox360..
so votes for xbox360 are a lot less diluted

Theres nothing forcing people to vote for ANY X360 game. Its not like the all star game where each team gets to send at LEAST one player.

 

[Hardknock]

Listen guys, just to get a few things settled before we go on:

1. The xbox 360 will be nothing but a failure, by any measure, in japan
2. THere is no series of events, pricing, software, services that can change this
3. IF you think it there is a way it can be successful, by any measure, youre foolish
4. When it actually does fail in Japan, those who thought it could be successful will look very silly and stupid (and foolish)
5. Launches of products never lie and always determine its eventual success, which only proves further the 360 will be a failure
6. No one in JP cares about mistwalker, BD, LO, and no one will buy them

Can we close this thread now?

Ummm, the PS1 didn't have a strong launch either. The Xbox 1 did have a strong launch and we see how those two turned out. You're not making any sense.

 

[expletive]

I could create an equally asinine list that snidely notes the flaws in your line of thinking, but nothing good will come of it.

As if lots of good has come out of the last 3 pages of this thread. If you disagree with anything on the (tongue in cheek) list then by all means disagree and make your point.

 

[expletive]

Ummm, the PS1 didn't have a strong launch either. The Xbox 1 did have a strong launch and we see how those two turned out. You're not making any sense.

Should the have been a instead?

 

[Hardknock]

the problem for this is that on NDS or PS2 people have plenty games to choose whereas on xbox360..
so votes for xbox360 are a lot less diluted

I'm pretty certain that people get to vote for multiple games on any of the systems. For 2 360 games to make the list is quite the accomplishment.

 

[Hardknock]

Should the have been a instead?

Haha You had me going there for a second, nice

 

[Shifty Geezer]

www.gamefront.de provide the full most wanted data:

1. (1 / 1) Final Fantasy XII PS2 Square Enix 2.836
8. (8 /13) Blue Dragon Xbox 360 Microsoft 588

So statistically these figures seem fairly useless. They come from a 'hardcore gaming mag' don't they, so likely don't represent the general public as a whole. I don't think we can even guess sales figures based on relative position either. If we assume FFXII goes on to sell...5 million in Japan (didn't DQ8 do 6M?), BD got 1/5th the votes, so would it sell 1/5th the copies? 1 million? And yet Zelda is rated below BD and that'll sell multimillions for sure. And DOA4 at 400 votes vote, if votes correspond to sales, be expected to get hundreds of thousands.

I don't count XB360 out at all in Japan, as I'm sure greater interest can be generated with a stronger Japanese game lineup. But I can't see any reason, certainly not from a very limited Famitsu poll, to believe millions of people, or even hundreds of thousands of people, want to play BD and may be convinced to buy an XB360 if BD is released with other games they're interested in.

 

[Sis]

Who are the high-profile developers?
Mistwalker don't develop games, they're designers. Whose directors last work was a collosal failure (FF:TSW). If MS hadn't wooed the studio (and funded its whole operation) its likely they would've had very little prominence.

Listen, I see your point on some of the arguments, but this one is just silly. They are indeed high profile through name alone, not because MS "wooed the studio"--as if where MS spends money somehow drives popularity.

And using a movie's popularity to justify this point of view?

.Sis

 

[expletive]

So statistically these figures seem fairly useless. They come from a 'hardcore gaming mag' don't they, so likely don't represent the general public as a whole. I don't think we can even guess sales figures based on relative position either. If we assume FFXII goes on to sell...5 million in Japan (didn't DQ8 do 6M?), BD got 1/5th the votes, so would it sell 1/5th the copies? 1 million? And yet Zelda is rated below BD and that'll sell multimillions for sure. And DOA4 at 400 votes vote, if votes correspond to sales, be expected to get hundreds of thousands.

I don't count XB360 out at all in Japan, as I'm sure greater interest can be generated with a stronger Japanese game lineup. But I can't see any reason, certainly not from a very limited Famitsu poll, to believe millions of people, or even hundreds of thousands of people, want to play BD and may be convinced to buy an XB360 if BD is released with other games they're interested in.

I think the core relevance is not necesserily about 'numbers' per se but more the mindshare component. The poll shows at least people are aware of the game, they know its COMING. A game on the list thats not due out until the end of the year on a console with less than 100K units sold says something, i dont know exactly what but it bodes better for MS to have titles on the last rather off it. The list may not be as significant as some are arguing but theyre certainly not useless are they?

 

[Mmmkay]

So statistically these figures seem fairly useless. They come from a 'hardcore gaming mag' don't they, so likely don't represent the general public as a whole.

Yep, pretty much. I don't think I would dare to draw conclusions on sales, from the most wanted numbers. It is however quite good to get an impression of popularity, even if it is among a niche community. You know that if a game is on the list then it will at least sell to some degree of success.

I vaguely recall seeing the coupon thing they ask you to fill in a while ago. I may be wrong but I believe they ask you to submit like 3 to 5 entries, which might account for discrepancies when you try to make proportional sales arguments.

 

[Hardknock]

Who are the high-profile developers?
Mistwalker don't develop games, they're designers. Whose directors last work was a collosal failure (FF:TSW). If MS hadn't wooed the studio (and funded its whole operation) its likely they would've had very little prominence.

Uhhh, Mistwalker is VERY high profile. Sakaguchi just won a poll for most important man in the Japanese game industry. Surely that's high profile enough for you? Secondly they do develop games. They are currently developing a DS game in-house.

Also they are designing the game mechanics, story and gameplay of LO and BD. The most important things about a game, so I don't understand why you're trying to downplay their role?

 

[Powderkeg]

Listen guys, just to get a few things settled before we go on:

1. The xbox 360 will be nothing but a failure, by any measure, in japan
2. THere is no series of events, pricing, software, services that can change this
3. IF you think it there is a way it can be successful, by any measure, youre foolish
4. When it actually does fail in Japan, those who thought it could be successful will look very silly and stupid (and foolish)
5. Launches of products never lie and always determine its eventual success, which only proves further the 360 will be a failure
6. No one in JP cares about mistwalker, BD, LO, and no one will buy them

Can we close this thread now?

Yeah, just as soon as you can clearly define what constitues a failure in Japan.

Until then you're making baseless claims. Empty air with nothing in reality to base it on other than your own personal opinion.

 

[Nicked]

ONly if you assume that the sampling size is not statistically relevant. How do you know these results wont scale with a larger sampling?

Obviously I can't for sure, but I'd guess because the sample size is too small and the audience not representative of the population?

Casual gamers read Famitsu? Probably not. Most hardcore gamers vote? Obviously not.

Ummm, the PS1 didn't have a strong launch either. The Xbox 1 did have a strong launch and we see how those two turned out. You're not making any sense.

Yes it did. It didn't blitz the Saturn in Japan right away but it was definitely a strong, successful launch.

But since you mentioned the Xbox you must mean in the U.S, where the PSOne also enjoyed a fantastic launch (an unheard of 100k units moving in two days with fantastic software available).

Uhhh, Mistwalker is VERY high profile. Sakaguchi just won a poll for most important man in the Japanese game industry. Surely that's high profile enough for you?

Yeah, that was credible until you fact in it was an online poll and Bill Gates ranked ahead of Miyamoto.

Secondly they do develop games. They are currently developing a DS game in-house.

ASH? I forgot about that. What do you know.
Still....

Also they are designing the game mechanics, story and gameplay of LO and BD. The most important things about a game, so I don't understand why you're trying to downplay their role?

...its not their role, its their games impact when the developers are Artoon and Cavia.

And I said "would've had very little prominence". Meaning they do have prominence now. Which is undeniable.

Until then you're making baseless claims. Empty air with nothing in reality to base it on other than your own personal opinion.

You do realise he is being sarcastic?

 

[Powderkeg]

Yep, pretty much. I don't think I would dare to draw conclusions on sales, from the most wanted numbers. It is however quite good to get an impression of popularity, even if it is among a niche community. You know that if a game is on the list then it will at least sell to some degree of success.

I would check to see if Shenmue ever appeared on that list before I made that assumption.