Xbox 2007 or bust?
- Thread starter blakjedi
- Start date
I said simply that the Wii WILL surpass the 360 in sales this year...
heres your link :http://www.vgchartz.com/?w=x1
Check the july sales... http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=471
Now beat it!
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
No, what you did is what many others have done, which is put the 360 in second place despite the fact that it is first and has never been anything but first.
You are attempting to predict the actions of MS based upon perspective that the 360 is 2nd in sales to Nintendo and needs to 'catch up'.
Those are your words.
Its rather difficult to try to predict the actions of another when you can't find their perspective because the facts you are using are distorted.
The 360 is the market leader, not the Wii. The 360 doesn't need to 'catch up' to anybody.
You are predicting the Wii will overtake the 360 by the end of the year?
Interesting.
How many 360 sales are you expecting after the launch of Halo 3 and over the holiday season?
You and others, act as if MS needs to react to Nintendo and you do so based on future predictions not current reality.
Whether you like it or not as a consumer, MS is very much acting like the market leader. A market leader who believes their software library for the rest of the year combined with only a $50 price drop will be enough to maintain and strengthen their position. Their position as the console with the most sales. Not the console with the 2nd most sales. Not a console that needs to take drastic measures to 'catch up'.
You are attempting to predict the actions of MS based upon perspective that the 360 is 2nd in sales to Nintendo and needs to 'catch up'.
Those are your words.
Its rather difficult to try to predict the actions of another when you can't find their perspective because the facts you are using are distorted.
The 360 is the market leader, not the Wii. The 360 doesn't need to 'catch up' to anybody.
You are predicting the Wii will overtake the 360 by the end of the year?
Interesting.
How many 360 sales are you expecting after the launch of Halo 3 and over the holiday season?
You and others, act as if MS needs to react to Nintendo and you do so based on future predictions not current reality.
Whether you like it or not as a consumer, MS is very much acting like the market leader. A market leader who believes their software library for the rest of the year combined with only a $50 price drop will be enough to maintain and strengthen their position. Their position as the console with the most sales. Not the console with the 2nd most sales. Not a console that needs to take drastic measures to 'catch up'.
Are you the chief architect of the x360? or the chief marketing director or sales manager? If not then relax.
"Question is: the wii will overtake x360 in sales this year... will the PS3 overtake MS next year? If the x360 manages to stay second in effect it "wins" for lack of a better term... MS' plan needs to be staying ahead of Sony.. not catching up to Nintendo."
All trends in terms of sales which i needlessly pointed out to you using the vgchartz is that "the wii WILL overtake x360 in sales this year" Period. WILL denotes a future activity. "This year" is an intermediate timeframe for that activity... Reading is very easy... and your tone is very discordant.
As far as Halo 3 etc... sure sales will rise but all console sales will rise this christmas/holiday period... not everyone plays or likes Halo. Evidently the 8 or so million people who in the last TEN MONTHS who bought a wii (as opposed to the 10 milliion who bought a 360 in the last 22 months) dont give a rats ass about it. If Halo sells 5 million copies and half of those are new consoles sales also then we can say that of the 12 million people who own an x360, less than half wanted Halo3... see how that works?
On catching up... Yes x360 needs to catch up because its sales are lagging both its competitors in the most recent sales period. Wii is beating 360 4:1 worldwide... if the consoles were selling in parity then i would agree with you but since THE FACTS say something different why even argue about it.
Also I am not the ONLY person predicting Wii domination this year. For whatever reason its managed to catch up to x360 in sales in less than half the time x360 has been available... A console which has also had TWO christmas seasons under its belt and superior technology and games to go with it. Why is that?
Wii may not hold on but in 2007 it will be hard not to concede market leadership. I also specifically said MS need NOT react to Nintendo but rather to staving off the PS3. So you've got your argument all wrong today.
And I dont even own a friggin wii lol
scooby_dooby
Legend
No, he said "WILL pass the 360 THIS YEAR". Reading comprehension FTW
BlackJedi said:
Which it will, probably in the next two months on the strength of it's japanese sales. 360 is still pretty far ahead in the US though.
This is simply, factualy NOT TRUE. 360 sells about 2:1 above the PS3 in the US, both sell statistical errors in Japan, and the EU data, as sparse as it is, shows a parity after the initial blip of the delayed launch of the PS3 in Europe.
July
wii PS3 360
Totals 1010087 374290 239571
North America 372603 181823 132163
Japan 365088 75408 23257
Total Others 272396 117059 84152
No need for me to add more.
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
No, he said "WILL pass the 360 THIS YEAR". Reading comprehension FTW
Need a dictionary, Scoob?
Access to them is free on the interweb. WILL means 'expected to, required to, supposed to, determined to'
And none of that is factually correct.
As I stated rather clearly, his entire theory for the relevance of this particular thread determining if it's "2007 or bust" for the Xbox, is based upon future speculation not current reality.
He is using straight line forecasting to predict future sales for ALL consoles assuming their current sales rates will continue for eternity, which is logically flawed.
Because the basis of his logic is flawed, he can't possibly reach any conclusions about the importance of 2007 for the Xbox based upon that logic.
And he certainly can't hope to predict what MS will do, when MS is most certainly operating based upon real data which shows that MS is not in 2nd place and doesn't need to do anything to 'catch up to Nintendo'.
People from forums, to industry analysts, to TV talking heads, to mainstream media have been referring to the Wii as the 'lead' console for months.
I find it highly interesting that the metric used to determine the sales leader has suddenly changed from 'consoles sold' to 'rate of sales'. Why don't we change the metric to 'consoles shipped' and discuss what needs to be done to catchup to the PS3?
scooby_dooby
Legend
So you're taking the month PS3 dropped price $100, and using that single month to argue that 360 is lagging behind PS3??
No, you're definately wrong on that point. 360 is not lagging behind both of it's competitors at all, it's still clearly outselling PS3 since it's launch.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Whjen something is 'expected' how can it be a fact?? Sorry but you're not making much sense.
I don't need a dictionary to have a little common sense.
Take a look at a linegraph of console sales, the 360 is being outsold 3:1 every single month by the Wii worldwide, it doesn't take a genius to realize it will be outsold by the end of this year.
There's little reason to believe Wii sales are simply going to jump off a cliff, and that's what they would have to do to not pass 360 this year.
Even if 360 manages to obtain parity with the Wii in the US during the holidays (doesn't seem likely), the few million units that will sell in Japan will close the gap anyways.
It doesn't get anymore clearer than this:
Ok think about it like this then. The 360 needs to sell a bit closer to what the PS3 sold in July to stay ahead in the generation... two more months of the Wii selling a million consoles a month and x360 selling less than a quarter million will put 360 second at least for a time... though if Wii can sell 1million consoles during the middle of the summer... I cant imagine what it will sell during holiday time Halo notwithstanding...
Speaking of Halo, Halo will pop sales in September and then again Black Friday and then again on christmas... no GT4 so no spike for that to be considered.
Lets see if the $50 drop provides teh momentum to move 360 sales back ahead of PS3's... if it doesn't well then ... that would be bad.
Yes, you need to add the source of these numbers. NPD will be published 22 Aug, if I'm not mistaken. And 360 has been selling a rock-solid 40k/week in the US only for the past few months, even with the Elite being out of stock for May and June - reports from retailers say that they are flying off the shelves now - and still only 132k, with Canada?
These numbers are suspect. Japan seems a bit high for both ps3 and xb360. The US numbers for 360 seem low. ps3 US numbers are plausable though with the price drop.
It'll be interesting to see how close these numbers are to the NPD #'s.
vg seems hit or miss in their past predictions. Some remarkably close, others, not so much.
I wonder how/where they got their "Total others" numbers from.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Agreed.
The July #'s for 360 would signal it's worst month, by a mile, since launch. I'm a little skeptical of those numbers.
If these numbers are accurate, it would seem MS scheduled it's pricedrop just in the nick of time.
It'll be interesting to see how close these numbers are to the NPD #'s.
vg seems hit or miss in their past predictions. Some remarkably close, others, not so much.
I wonder how/where they got their "Total others" numbers from.
You go to their page they describe their methodology. Their numbers are based on retail shipments reported by vendors... I dont know if what portion of teh actual vendor universe they capture but NPD is roughly underestimated by 30% itself... :shrug:
vgchartz #s should be used with caution. Their weekly #s have changed if they didn't coorelate to NPD numbers in the past, which has happen quite often. This especially true for Europe as there isn't much public data to go by and thereby no real standard for them to do error correction by.
Data for past months and years are more reliable (influenced by more respectable tracking companies) then their present data (pre NPD) which is based strictly on their own methodology.
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