For MS to "win" it needs to make the xbox 360 a profitable venture. This isn't a beauty contest or a spectator sports, its a business. If the PS3 goes on to sale 10 million consoles this generation and the 360 sell just 15 million, I doubt MS would consider that a win, since 15 million console can't support the the total cost of investment into the 360.
Xbox 2007 or bust?
- Thread starter blakjedi
- Start date
For MS to "win" it needs to make the xbox 360 a profitable venture. This isn't a beauty contest or a spectator sports, its a business. If the PS3 goes on to sale 10 million consoles this generation and the 360 sell just 15 million, I doubt MS would consider that a win, since 15 million console can't support the the total cost of investment into the 360.
No.
Do the math on how much the PS3 should sell more than the 360 every month to compensate for the ever widening difference in installed base, then look at the price tags and the game catalogs.
It is possible for the PS3 to have a decent Xmas 2007 and a stellar Xmas 2008; but to overtake the overall install base of the Xbox 360 by January 1st, 2009, seems impossible to me.
Bioshock being exclusive to the 360 is going to put a lot of wind into Microsofts wings, then of course Halo 3 hits.
The install base is going to so large for the 360 by the end of 2007, it will be impossible for publishers to ignore the system. Any exclusive that Sony wants to keep for the PS3 will cost them a fortune. Enormous pressure is going to be put on the Sony 1st party developers to generate consummer excitement in the platform. Probably too much.
The install base is going to so large for the 360 by the end of 2007, it will be impossible for publishers to ignore the system. Any exclusive that Sony wants to keep for the PS3 will cost them a fortune. Enormous pressure is going to be put on the Sony 1st party developers to generate consummer excitement in the platform. Probably too much.
scooby_dooby
Legend
PS3 can't overtake 360 next year.
However, if Sony can aggresively lower the price, and release their established franchises, PS3 could be the hot ticket item in Xmas 08, with the 360 faltering. On the strength of FF13 and GT5, PS3 could easily look like the console to own.
That momentum could carry through into 09 and see the PS3 pass 360 fairly easily.
Now, as some have pointed out, the low cost of the 360 in 2008 essentially precludes that scenario imo.
The only way MS could really get themselves in trouble, is if they continue this laissez-fair attitude with regards to their pricing.
If they are even midldly aggressive with pricedrops next year, then there's no way a $350-400 PS3 will overtake them. Sony has an edge in 1st party, but not THAT much.
Of course, if MS continues to cripple the core, and decides to drives sales to their $299 premium in Holiday 08, then they are in trouble. If they reduce peripheral pricing, and drive sales on the $199 core, they have it made in the shade.
For what it's worth, aren't that kind of comparisons forbidden here, Johnny-boy
Com'on, at least be fair about it.
You got to show quest55720 some love, too. Johnny is only replying to a future comparison, in which the only argument he could draw up is what's currently out. As this is what quest55720 said:I give you GT5, but if past performance of Square Enix is any indication, and guessing at most (earliest) Q2/2008 in Japan, FF13 won't be localized for the West in time for Xmas 08.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Ya, I agree. I can't see it happening either, but as of now it's an '08 title.
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
The first sentence of your post fails to provide the sales figures that demonstrate that the 360 is "second" and needs to "catch up to Nintendo".
Was my request for that information confusing?
The market doesn't want a $199.00 Core, its wants a $199.00 Premium. A $199.00 Core isn't going to be a major sales driver in comparsion to its big brother with a similar price cut. Even if MS threw in a free memory card into the Core sku, it would still sell poorly. The Core can't drive sales of the 360 brand because people want the HDD, the Live Starter Kit, the HD cables, the headset, wireless controller, chrome trim and also the name "Premium" . Most buyers see the extra $100.00 as a worthy investment.
MS would be better served cheapen the "Premium" experience rather than augmenting the "Core" experience.
quest55720
Regular
It is because the core is a poor value if the core was a better value people would buy it in droves at 199 or even 249. The core is to bare bones right now the premium gives you 180 dollars worth of stuff for only 100. A falcon core with HDMI/memory card or internal storage/premiums av cables would be fantastic for the majority who don't want to take a console online. If you don't take your console online the head set is worthless and the hard drive is just a huge memory card.
The reason for the core is to hit the 199 price point ASAP and then 179/149/129 like the PS2.
quest55720
Regular
It is more about sony than MS this for the boom or bust 2007. Right now sony does not have the game library and the pricing is insane. Come 2008 both of those should be fixed. MS needs to clean up now while sony is still getting their act together. MS needs that killer instinct it has sony down and with a falcon and agressive price cuts can finish them in NA this fall. Europe is a lost cause they are sony land for some unknown reason. Japan is a disaster for both HD consoles MS needs NA to carry them this generation.
While I agree 100% with everything you said, but MS must be hurting with the RRoD warranty. And they about to settle with Eolas Technologies at a tune of 0.5 Billion USD. So I can understand them not wanting to reduce the price so quickly. Especially if everyone start using the 360 as a media extender. BTW, it works really great as a media extender, I'm very impressed.
BTW Does anyone knows how much money Sony get for game license vs BR license? I mean if everyone start buying the PS3 as a BR player, how money would Sony get? Do you think the different as great as 2:1? (in favor of game)
So are you saying if MS doesn't sealed the deal in 2007, Sony has a chance in 2008?
Hmm, I wouldn't count Sony out of the running for the land of the rising sun. I would count MS out...but they have stay in that market to save face.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Give me a break.
The 'market' consists of the 150+ million people who bought a PS2/Xbox/Gamecube last generation.
Not the 9 million people who purchased 360 premium's in the last 2 years.
That's why I said they must de-cripple the Core. By that I mean, drop peripheral pricing across the board.
People do want (some of) those things.
By lowering the price of a few key peripherals, MS would allow people to buy what they want, when they want without feeling ripped off. And allow people to realistically enter at lower pricepoints.
There doesn't need to be a $200 gap in value between the Core and Premium. If the premium only offered $130 - 140 in extra value over the Core, the core would sell much better.
MS could accomplish this by lowering the price on the HDD by $40, and bundling HD cables with the Core.
The cost of the base experience for the Core and the Premium is the same. If all you wanted was the base experience then extra cost of a memory card is going to dissuade from buying a Core just because a Premium is just $75.00 dollars away. What $80 in saving for a bunch of peripherals that you don't want or need anyway?
Yes, the Core exist to get the 360 to the $199.00 price cut in a time frame that would have been impossible for the Premium. What it is not meant to do is be the key sales driver for the 360 brand. The Premium will out sell the the Core at any price point even though it will get there at a later time. MS intended for this or they wouldn't have priced the Premium and Core so close together nor introduced such a large saving into the Premium bundle.
A $199 Premium vs. a $199 Core is just as different as a $199 GC and $199 PS2. $199 doesn't mean anything if you console isn't the console of choice.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Other than the fact their game libraries are identical :smile:
They aren't, unless you augment the Core with a HDD or a big memory card.
just joking.
Last edited by a moderator:
I've just find something interesting on a french site.
An online retailer has announced a bundle including a premium pack+ Halo III + one months free subscription to live gold for 379Euros.
http://www.rueducommerce.fr/Jeux-Co...10085-Pack-Xbox-360-Premium-System-Halo-3.htm
So far the product is sold out or invalid... They were supposed to start delivery after September 26
I guess someone mess with the scheduler and disclose informations to early.
But this is a good clue of what the MS pricing politic will consist in in Europe.
It smells like a 50 euros price cut + interesting bundle.
If true and if Ms do the same in US I guess that 360 will fly off the shelves this fall.
379$ + retailers special offers + possibly credit card deal could put the bundle dangerously close to 300$
Maybe MS won't even need to drop the price by more than 50$ and make quiet an astounding chrismass in US.
An online retailer has announced a bundle including a premium pack+ Halo III + one months free subscription to live gold for 379Euros.
http://www.rueducommerce.fr/Jeux-Co...10085-Pack-Xbox-360-Premium-System-Halo-3.htm
So far the product is sold out or invalid... They were supposed to start delivery after September 26
I guess someone mess with the scheduler and disclose informations to early.
But this is a good clue of what the MS pricing politic will consist in in Europe.
It smells like a 50 euros price cut + interesting bundle.
If true and if Ms do the same in US I guess that 360 will fly off the shelves this fall.
379$ + retailers special offers + possibly credit card deal could put the bundle dangerously close to 300$
Maybe MS won't even need to drop the price by more than 50$ and make quiet an astounding chrismass in US.
Last edited by a moderator:
Similar threads
