Wii success will not last, says developer
- Thread starter nidave
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tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
However the amount of gfx whores vs people who care little about gfx is very little. Lets say there are 10million gfx whores out there, which is alot higher than reality I think but lets assume that for the sake of argument. Now how much of a impact do those 10million have if you have 100+million that care little about the gfx?
Also I think what he says is just not true. Ofcourse there is a certain group who want the best of the best, and ofcourse nobody would complain about better gfx. Next gen started 1.5 year ago, wii was introduced half a year ago and still wii is outselling x360 and ps3 every time. If people really cared that much about gfx that would never have happend because even when Wii was introduced its gfx were already outdated alot especially since the launch games looked like mid range ps2 games.
I also think there is a difference between bad, and less good gfx. Its not like the wii isnt capable of good gfx, just look at mario and mp3. Those arnt bad gfx, they are just less good than ps3/x360 gfx and I think with the exeption of the gfx whores no sane person would complain about wii gfx.
The question is whether or not the casuals care. My impression is that if the gameplay is good, then no, they won't care.
Graphics only really start to matter when other consoles can give a similar gameplay, but with better graphics. This won't matter much until all the consoles cost less than $300. This is of course excluding all other factors that influence people (friends, TV sets, etc.).
Graphics only really start to matter when other consoles can give a similar gameplay, but with better graphics. This won't matter much until all the consoles cost less than $300. This is of course excluding all other factors that influence people (friends, TV sets, etc.).
I have mixed thoughts on this.
On the one hand, the WII is certainly a phenomenon selling more than most would have predicted a year ago. It offers a unique (NOT a GIMMICK!) style of control.
People such as my wife and daughter who are not gamers have said that it looks like it would be fun. When you have people that don't know/care two bits about how game are "supposed" to look now a days interested in the thing it bodes well for future sales.
On the other hand, you have people like my son and I who look at the offerings on the PS3/360 and start to salivate!
We like the "flash and sparkle" if you will of the HD games. I have no doubt that these consoles will in time come down to an acceptable mass market price. What that price is will be determined by the market alone.
When that happens, I believe we will see the Wii popularity wane a little, but I also believe by that time the install base will be sufficient to see quite a library of third party games make a good impression.
On the one hand, the WII is certainly a phenomenon selling more than most would have predicted a year ago. It offers a unique (NOT a GIMMICK!) style of control.
People such as my wife and daughter who are not gamers have said that it looks like it would be fun. When you have people that don't know/care two bits about how game are "supposed" to look now a days interested in the thing it bodes well for future sales.
On the other hand, you have people like my son and I who look at the offerings on the PS3/360 and start to salivate!
We like the "flash and sparkle" if you will of the HD games. I have no doubt that these consoles will in time come down to an acceptable mass market price. What that price is will be determined by the market alone.When that happens, I believe we will see the Wii popularity wane a little, but I also believe by that time the install base will be sufficient to see quite a library of third party games make a good impression.
If they keep launching games that are both good and exclusive, given the market they can possible have (gamers that like those games and cant have them anyhere else, people how dont care with gfx, good games that arent possible in others consoles, people that just prefer cheaper and fun than pricei and complex...to many to mention) I dont see why wouldnt they keep having sucess.
The truth is, there is a big market for the kind of thing that Wii is, as long as they keep the good work there is no reason to not have sucess, at least till they have some real competition in this new market.
The truth is, there is a big market for the kind of thing that Wii is, as long as they keep the good work there is no reason to not have sucess, at least till they have some real competition in this new market.
Rainbow Man
Veteran
I think all he said is nothing but bunk.
"Fact is", if people cared as much about graphics as he says they do Wii hadsn't started selling at the rate it does in the first place.
There were plenty enough graphiical reasons to pick another console even from the first day Wii launched and even more so today.
Peace.
"Fact is", if people cared as much about graphics as he says they do Wii hadsn't started selling at the rate it does in the first place.
There were plenty enough graphiical reasons to pick another console even from the first day Wii launched and even more so today.
Peace.
If we look back, casuals didnt stick with successful but outdated consoles despite the amount of quality games and their mass appeal.
For example Playstation1 and 2. When their newer versions came, sales started to drop. We never saw people going by millions to shops to get a PS1 or a PS2.
Wii doesnt attract because casuals dont care about graphics and care more about gameplay.
It feels newish and the idea alone behind the control makes them go "wow it is the future".
Even its games arent that ground braking. Some of its best games are the same or of similar style Nintendo were making for ages on their previous consoles. These games were the least preferable years ago. Suddenly people care.
Well if the parent wants to buy something new to his kid. Wii is the option. Then it is the fact that it is considered cheap so people are a lot more forgiving for low quality aspects in many of its games, while a 360 or a PS3 due to high price people are more strict with them because they want the price justified. Wii can get away with mediocre or the same old games, but offers the illusion of something unique. Many non-gamers will also buy the console since it is considered something new, different and most importantly cheap without worrying "I paid that amount of money for something I want be using much. The price makes them think "even if I am not going to use it extensively it wont cost me much if I buy it so no prob". Then its people that dont care much about the games themselves they will be playing but the motion control itself. They want a game to swing that controller and see what it does.
I was waiting for E3 to show me a plethora of advanced games but things havent changed much which says what kind of gamers buy Wii.
I am not sure though if Wii's success wont last. There is another factor which is word from mouth to mouth. The more gamers buy a Wii the higher the chances even more will buy it. My neighbor has it, my friend has it, the kids in school has it, they are all playing and sharing games,they are playing online together this or that game. What games do they play? They are playing these games specific Wii games and they are having fun.......i want fun too
For example Playstation1 and 2. When their newer versions came, sales started to drop. We never saw people going by millions to shops to get a PS1 or a PS2.
Wii doesnt attract because casuals dont care about graphics and care more about gameplay.
It feels newish and the idea alone behind the control makes them go "wow it is the future".
Even its games arent that ground braking. Some of its best games are the same or of similar style Nintendo were making for ages on their previous consoles. These games were the least preferable years ago. Suddenly people care.
Well if the parent wants to buy something new to his kid. Wii is the option. Then it is the fact that it is considered cheap so people are a lot more forgiving for low quality aspects in many of its games, while a 360 or a PS3 due to high price people are more strict with them because they want the price justified. Wii can get away with mediocre or the same old games, but offers the illusion of something unique. Many non-gamers will also buy the console since it is considered something new, different and most importantly cheap without worrying "I paid that amount of money for something I want be using much. The price makes them think "even if I am not going to use it extensively it wont cost me much if I buy it so no prob". Then its people that dont care much about the games themselves they will be playing but the motion control itself. They want a game to swing that controller and see what it does.
I was waiting for E3 to show me a plethora of advanced games but things havent changed much which says what kind of gamers buy Wii.
I am not sure though if Wii's success wont last. There is another factor which is word from mouth to mouth. The more gamers buy a Wii the higher the chances even more will buy it. My neighbor has it, my friend has it, the kids in school has it, they are all playing and sharing games,they are playing online together this or that game. What games do they play? They are playing these games specific Wii games and they are having fun.......i want fun too
I think he's just confused himself with everyone, that's all. A lot of times, when people say "No one wants that," they mean, "I don't want that." X360 has already had all kinds of graphical flash and sizzle the market hasn't seen before...anyone here played Gears of War? Wii keeps selling anyway.
Rainbow Man
Veteran
That's because new software releases dropped off as well.
Sony was clearly gearing up for the new generation of console and thus original PS went to the chopping block.
Besides. Sony/PS never specifically targetted a 'casula' market demographic like Wii is doing so I don't really see how your comparison would be valid in the first place..
Not rocket science this is..</yoda>
Peace.
I would agree to a point, in my opinion there is now more of a split than ever before - the casual games are looking for something they can pick up have a blast for 20 min or so and fill some time, graphics are not that important - as long as its fun and simple. Gameplay is king. As the Wii has been gaining popularity this section is growing all the time and Microsoft and Sony would be mad not to get some simalar games out there.
I am a casual gamer and have a 360 (as I am also graphics whore) I want my games to look good but dont want to get that involved with them, My favourate game at the moment is Boom Boom Rocket. (I cant wait to get DiRT - demo is amazing )
I think Dave Perry is (what I would call) a proper gamer - they want it all and are prepared to invest time in a good game give it the atttnetion it needs - they feel graphics play a very large part of the experance.
Readykilowatt
Regular
Wii is a fad
This argument is sooo outdated.
This argument is sooo outdated.
Don't be a snob. You think all the people that own the Wii have been "tricked" into buying it, or fallen into some weird social system of gaming peer pressure? It doesn't have the best graphics so people must not have been thinking right when they bought it?
Most people have fun playing with their Wii. It's not for everyone, especially the puritans, and that's fine. But playing with your Wii doesn't make you any less of a person ... I mean gamer.
There should be enough good high-quality games, even if most of them are made by Nintendo, to keep the system going and make it a success. With their current install base, they should be able to good amounts of software if they're releasing some AAA titles. And financially, it doesn't have to achieve the same sales figures as PS3 and Xbox360 do for Sony and MS, respectively, because Nintendo didn't put in as much investment. If the Wii tapers off earlier than the other two, Nintendo can work on a quicker cycle and put out the Wii2 a year or two before Sony and MS are finished with their current systems.
Think of Nintendo as the Apple of consoles. People rag on Apple because they have a low market share in the PC, but I don't think Apple really cares. They have their goals, and as long as their meeting those goals and making money, they're happy. There will probably always be enough people to support Nintendo and keep them successful, even if they're the third player in the market.
What exactly did E3 tell you about "what kind of gamers buy Wii?"
Considering that the difference in graphics between the Wii and the PS3/360 is already pretty big, I don't think the future will be effected much. Developers will get better with Wii hardware, just like devs will with PS3/360 hardware.
Heck, if Wii does surpass the 360 and PS3 in install base, it might even gain a little ground on the other two.
And Gears of War already looks better than Halo 3 (in my opinion), so I'm going to have to say he's wrong about that.
No console will be left without good games, though. But I think by the time the other two get down to mass-market price, the Wii will already be to far ahead. It's already almost caught up with the 360, for heaven's sake.
Heck, if Wii does surpass the 360 and PS3 in install base, it might even gain a little ground on the other two.
And Gears of War already looks better than Halo 3 (in my opinion), so I'm going to have to say he's wrong about that.
No console will be left without good games, though. But I think by the time the other two get down to mass-market price, the Wii will already be to far ahead. It's already almost caught up with the 360, for heaven's sake.
I dont feel like discussing when someone assumes too much and puts words into my mouth.
Actually both consoles had plenty of games for casuals and they targeted all audiences. Especially PS1. It werent just for its hardcore games that it gained such a huge success. This was the absolute route Saturn chose and failed. PS1 on the other hand offered a huge plethora of games that people in general wanted to play.
The only difference is that the games that gained the most popularity on these consoles werent aimed solely to casuals despite that such games were always there. Other than the absence of motion sensor controller they didnt differ much from the audiences Wii is targeting today (excluding the non-gamer consumers). This thing about Wii targeting casuals for the first time is a misconception.
What Wii manage to do that previous consoles failed to do was capture people's interest on the type of games that always existed but people didn't notice or didnt have the motive to try. It also doesnt differ much from the type of games Nintendo tried to offer on GC. The same type of games were ignored or unnoticed on the GC. Wii manages to add some spice on the experience and people begin to notice, casuals and non-gamers alike. Which is a good thing
It's the Wii controller that does the work of success and not casual's love for gameplay. Hardcore gamers care as much about gameplay if not more
No rocket science.
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People have been saying this since the DS came out.
The Wii and DS are both absolute marvels in the marketplace. There's simply no questioning their utter dominance at this point. Anyone that thinks either is going to die out as a fad is deluding themselves, period.
The Wii's position, when you get right down to it, can only improve as time goes by. The price will drop. Availability will improve (KEEP IN MIND THE DAMN THING IS STILL SUPPLY CONSTRAINED! scary thought really).
And most importantly, the games will improve.
Many developers were 'on the fence' about Wii before its launch, because it seemed novel and fascinating but hey, so did Virtual Boy and we all know how that one panned out.
Fast forward to the launch and, while there are no horror stories of deaths/killings like with the PS3, the bloody machine is still by and large sold out worldwide some 7-8 months later! I worked at a Circuit City during the launch until the end of January or so and we still had lines forming outside the store almost every single weekend we got shipments of Wiis till the day I left.
There's no way the game developers are ignoring Wii's roaring success. Katamari has already jumped onto the Wii and more games will follow. New projects were surely started when develoeprs realized Wii is being received phenomenally well by consumers.
Next year, I predict Wii sales will probably improve even more, considering the supply will finally catch up to the demand, and the software selection will improve dramatically.
Just wait and see.
The Wii and DS are both absolute marvels in the marketplace. There's simply no questioning their utter dominance at this point. Anyone that thinks either is going to die out as a fad is deluding themselves, period.
The Wii's position, when you get right down to it, can only improve as time goes by. The price will drop. Availability will improve (KEEP IN MIND THE DAMN THING IS STILL SUPPLY CONSTRAINED! scary thought really).
And most importantly, the games will improve.
Many developers were 'on the fence' about Wii before its launch, because it seemed novel and fascinating but hey, so did Virtual Boy and we all know how that one panned out.
Fast forward to the launch and, while there are no horror stories of deaths/killings like with the PS3, the bloody machine is still by and large sold out worldwide some 7-8 months later! I worked at a Circuit City during the launch until the end of January or so and we still had lines forming outside the store almost every single weekend we got shipments of Wiis till the day I left.
There's no way the game developers are ignoring Wii's roaring success. Katamari has already jumped onto the Wii and more games will follow. New projects were surely started when develoeprs realized Wii is being received phenomenally well by consumers.
Next year, I predict Wii sales will probably improve even more, considering the supply will finally catch up to the demand, and the software selection will improve dramatically.
Just wait and see.
At some level I really hope he's right, because Nintendo cleaning up this gen will mean the end of the technology arms race in consoles and the end to big budget game in a lot of game genres I happen to enjoy.
However I think he's wrong in this case where I do think the phenomenem will calm down probably running into this Xmas, I don't really see Wii being anything other than a major player over the 4 or 5 year console lifespan.
However I think he's wrong in this case where I do think the phenomenem will calm down probably running into this Xmas, I don't really see Wii being anything other than a major player over the 4 or 5 year console lifespan.
The hardcore market would likely shift to PC's esp. if Games for Windows actually do provide convience for PC users. Right now, the PC maintainence is a pain to deal with.
PC gaming could be marketed well towards the hardcore crowd if the arms race ended due to Wii dominance.
Personally, I have no interest in the Wii at this moment but I certainly do not agree with the analyst. It'll be a long term success.
quest55720
Regular
I don't think it would end the arms race at all. I think there is room for both to do very well. I don't see the Wii slowing down for a long time. That does not mean MS or sony can not get off their butts get pricing under control. I think the 360 and PS3 can both be very profitable and do very well if they get pricing under control asap. I think a 100 dollar price drop and we would see 360s flying off the shelf with the fall line up MS has. The only thing that has screwed up HD gaming is the cost of blue ray and the adoption of HD-TVs.
