Unofficial MS Target: 10M X360's sales in 12-16mo timeframe

[sonycowboy]

Errr...they're not talking about 10m by the end of the year, but 10m by the time their competitors launches.

6m this year is not going to happen...I don't think they could even manufacture that number by year's end. When has any home system sold 6m in 2 months? I think they'll sell 3-4m tops by year's end. 3-4m would be bloody great in fact. You're talking about 6 weeks here.

Actually, they're saying 10M within 12-16 months, which means by Nov 2006 - March 2007. Again, it's a slam dunk unless something really, really bad happens to them (production problems, a shocking number of gamers wait for the PS3, or Sony signs every single exclusive known to man).

 

[Magnum PI]

yes the timespan between the x360 and the PS3 will be a lot shorter than the one b/w DC and PS2.

consumers will be even more tempted to wait for the launch of the PS3, and sony will use every mean (FUD, hype, vaporware...) to entice them to do so..

if there was no PS3, i think MS would easily reach this target, but..

 

[BlueTsunami]

No one seems to be counting the fact that people will probably get TWO SYSTEMS. You know...it does happen....its not like someone gets a Xbox360 and thats the end all system they'll be getting. Somewhere down the line alot of gamers end up getting a second system (I have all three current generation systems). So even if 360 gets more sales than Xbox1, the reason may be because there pulling in Playstation users..if thats the case then those users may go out and get a PS3 in which case both Sony and Microsoft made a sale.....

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Well most consumers only have one system (PS2) and are happy to stick with one system. It's your more hardcore gamers that has two or more, seems to me. I'd love to know what percentage of XB owners also have PS2s, and how many of these intend on getting both XB360 and PS3. I think primarily MS is aiming for the one-only console audience, that market Sony has a grip on. These are the people who will only be using one content gateway and you what them to funnel all their money down your microtransactions plughole; not go sharing it between two systems.

 

[SanGreal]

Errr...they're not talking about 10m by the end of the year, but 10m by the time their competitors launches.

6m this year is not going to happen...I don't think they could even manufacture that number by year's end. When has any home system sold 6m in 2 months? I think they'll sell 3-4m tops by year's end. 3-4m would be bloody great in fact. You're talking about 6 weeks here.

Actually, they're saying 10M within 12-16 months, which means by Nov 2006 - March 2007. Again, it's a slam dunk unless something really, really bad happens to them (production problems, a shocking number of gamers wait for the PS3, or Sony signs every single exclusive known to man).

While I think they have a rather good chance, I wouldn't call it a slam dunk. Isn't that like 1/2 of the xbox sales to date?

 

[wco81]

The people who buy more than one system do so after a couple of big price cuts.

So that means not until 2007 or 2008.

MS is shooting for 10 million around the end of 2006.

Even among people who buy multiple consoles, which is a growing number, how many buy more than one console within a generation at launch prices?

 

[Magnum PI]

No one seems to be counting the fact that people will probably get TWO SYSTEMS.

IMHO very few people get two systems or more..

if i get the PS3 or the PS3bis (x360) and i want to buy one more system... would i buy its sibling ?

better buy a system that brings something different, especially if its cheaper and means a lesser investment. i see more "revolution" having some success as a second system. but i must be wrong: if you made the choice to buy a system for the grown-ups, why would you by a kiddy console as a second system ?

 

[BlueTsunami]

More or less 1st party games that you wouldn't be able to touch on a different system. If its a matter of money, then ok...but if its true that most people only buy one system...then that really surprises me. I see it as normal to have two NEW systems so I can get a flavor of both systems Exclusive games. Thats just me I guess....

 

[sonycowboy]

More or less 1st party games that you wouldn't be able to touch on a different system. If its a matter of money, then ok...but if its true that most people only buy one system...then that really surprises me. I see it as normal to have two NEW systems so I can get a flavor of both systems Exclusive games. Thats just me I guess....

Multiple console owner is an interesting proposition. The "hardcore" will, at a high percentage, buy both systems, but their number is relatively small. Say less than 2M in the US?? Maybe less than that even.

The other multiconsole owners, IMO, are more likely to jump on another system MUCH later in the console lives when the systems have a much lower price point ($199 and less) when the weight of a competing libary helps to convince them.

For most people asking people to drop $400+ twice within a year might be a bit much. (cost of console, accessories + 1 game) in addition to their normal gaming purchases.

 

[PC-Engine]

Sony has already done this with the PS3.

No comment.

 

[jvd]

I don't think so. How many consumers who waited after the X360 launch to purchase one will do so later instead of buying the "new" PS3?

It depends

Why did they wait ? Did they wait becaue it didn't have enough games ? Did they wait because it was hard to find and figured they would get it after the holidays ? Did they wait cause they wanted a ps3 ? Did they wait because it was too expensive ?

THe majority will be the last option. And then it really doesn't matter if the ps3 launches . They will still be waiting for them to cost less

 

[Almasy]

Sony has already done this with the PS3.

No comment.

What is there to laugh about?

Sony already has GT, DMC, FF, MGS, GTA in the bag and comming. People already know amazing games are coming for PS3. So, I´m puzzled by your comment, even if fueled by Sony hate.

 

[jvd]

Sony already has GT, DMC, FF, MGS, GTA in the bag and comming. People already know amazing games are coming for PS3. So, I´m puzzled by your comment, even if fueled by Sony hate.

Same with ms

Gow , halo 3 , froza 2 , Gta , quake 4 .


So both companys have major games coming for them and some of the titles you listed for the ps3 like gta and perhaps ff may not just be on the ps3 . Which muddys the water more

 

[SanGreal]

Take-Two has stated (multiple times, I believe) that GTA's future home(s) is up in the air.

edit:

http://www.ps3land.com/news/article119.php

We haven't announced anything yet. It's a good position to be in, because we have the world's biggest brand and we have the hardware companies asking us, and certainly they want that product on their system. We will be finalizing that decision as we study the market.

 

[Mordecaii]

I agree jvd, MS does also have some great games coming out for them... the only problem I see with your MS list is that 2 of the bigger games are coming out on PC, and they in all honesty would play better on PC as well (due to mouse/keyboard controls and a bigger fanbase on PC). The games I'm referring to are of course Quake 4 and GoW (besides, isn't Quake 4 coming out on PS3 as well? I have no information to back this up, other than I never heard id software say they were supporting one system over another, and the D3 engine is written for OpenGL). In any case, it's true both systems have killer titles coming out for them, but just looking at the two lists provided in the posts above me I'd have to say that Sony's lineup is stronger when you look at it from a sales point of view. The Sony titles listed have sold more copies than the MS titles listed (especially since a couple of them are new franchises). I think that a lot of people buy game consoles expecting sequels to their favorite games (such as a new FF game, the new Madden, the next Halo, etc). So in my opinion, it'll be a good mixture of existing franchises and new ones that will help one company win. If a company focuses too much on just bringing out new franchises then I don't think it will do as well, and if a company has too many rehashes on past games then I think that will hurt it as well. Bottom line? How many people buy a console based on its past success and franchises that they've grown to love will be the biggest deciding factor in who wins the console war.

 

[SanGreal]

Also, MGS4 is not necessarily a PS3 exclusive

MGS4 doesn't seem to be limited exclusively to the PS3, though. While Kojima states that the game is, at this point, only set for the PS3, he wouldn't mind porting it to other hardware. However, this would require a large staff and lots of development funds. He also adds that if he were making a game for the Revolution or Xbox 360, he'd want to make something completely different from the Metal Gear Solid series -- an original title that fits in with the market for those systems.

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/625/625702p1.html?

 

[Mordecaii]

True, but by your quote it says that it's slated only for PS3 at the point, so until we hear otherwise then it is a PS3 exclusive (although they could go the route of GTA and port it to another system a year or two after initial launch on PS3).

 

[therealskywolf]

By your point then GOW as of now its still exclusive to the Xbox 360, because as of now there is no PC version announced and they are also not working on one at the moment, all their efforts are torwards GOW on the Xbox 360, and if after that MS decides that they want it on the PC then expect to wait at least 1 full year for the port.

 

[JasonLD]

Sony already has GT, DMC, FF, MGS, GTA in the bag and comming. People already know amazing games are coming for PS3. So, I´m puzzled by your comment, even if fueled by Sony hate.

Same with ms

Gow , halo 3 , froza 2 , Gta , quake 4 .


So both companys have major games coming for them and some of the titles you listed for the ps3 like gta and perhaps ff may not just be on the ps3 . Which muddys the water more

It is just that people will expect that Playstation will automatically have those games just like they did last 2 generations...I know MS is not up to that level in terms of dominating mindshare. Sony came from 2 consecutive generations of dominating the market and Playstation brand is really big mountain to climb even for MS. Big test for MS will not be how many units they can sell before PS3 arrives but how many they can sell with PS3 out on the market.

 

[Mordecaii]

Exactly, and if that is the case (which I didn't know whether GoW has been announced for PC or not, or even hinted at) then I would consider GoW a 360 exclusive until announced for PC, although Allard is saying that GoW will be for PC as well. (http://pc.ign.com/articles/618/618711p1.html). A question that I've had for a while about FPS games is, I wonder how many people would buy an FPS on a console if they could also get it on PC, and how many people prefer a mouse/keyboard to a controller... That's one of the reasons that I haven't bought a FPS on a console to date, as I'd rather play them on PC. I know there are others with the same opinion, although I have no idea how many. In either case, that's a bit off topic, and my point was just that some people will buy a FPS (such as GoW and Quake 4) on PC rather than on a console so I wonder just how much of a system seller they are... although for all I know they could be huge on the 360.