MS not to reach 3 million in 90 days Target

[Shifty Geezer]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1982&Itemid=2

Microsoft now admits it will not meet its target of up to 3 million Xbox 360 sales within 90-days of the console's launch.

In a report in today's Financial Times, the company shifted its attention to the longer-term target outlined at CES last week. The firm now says it will hit sales of 4 million to 5.5 million by the end of its financial year, in June.

The article has analysts estimating 1.3 million systems by the end of the holiday period.

Going by Moore's comments, I return to a suggestion I had before. If MS's aim was a quick and strong entry to the market, perhaps a simpler console would have been a better choice? XB360's design, as a poweful and competant piece of kit, isn't iodeally suited for a 'Blitzkrieg' attack on the market.

 

[Synergy34]

I wonder what the issue is, lack of a compontent being produced in a timely fashion or just that they can't put them together fast enough.

 

[Carl B]

I still think their plan was a bold one, and had/has it's advantages.

But no doubt things aren't going 'best case' for them.

@Synergy: The article's implication is different issues different days, and they're having a cumulative effect on volumes able to be shipped.

 

[_xxx_]

XB360's design, as a poweful and competant piece of kit, isn't iodeally suited for a 'Blitzkrieg' attack on the market.

I think it's rather because of the lack of blockbuster launch titles, if anything.

 

[Guden Oden]

If you're going to do something, aim high. (Unless you're Nintendo. ) MS definitely took the right choice in making the 360 a high-performance piece of kit.

Anyway, these sales target topics are boring and pointless. It's not anything that should concern us as 3D tech fanboiiis IMO. If anyone find this interesting, why not go to a board centering on financials/marketing or such?

 

[Carl B]

Anyway, these sales target topics are boring and pointless. It's not anything that should concern us as 3D tech fanboiiis IMO. If anyone find this interesting, why not go to a board centering on financials/marketing or such?

I'd love for there to be a financials/marketing sub-section of the console forum.

But that said, for the traffic these sorts of threads get, it's clear that plenty of individuals here are drawn to them. If you find them boring by all means you're not forced to post in them. Just like I avoid threads such as PDZ's 360 power utilization and threads with new pics of games x, y, and z - there's something for everyone here.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think it's rather because of the lack of blockbuster launch titles, if anything.

It's not that XB360's are having trouble selling! Seems more that they can't be made fast enough to sell them quickly.

 

[Phil]

hmm, so from an average throughoutput of about 1 million units per month (90 days => 3 million units), they downshifted to [ (4 million / 7 months) || (5.5 million / 7 months ) ] ... 570'000 - 800'000 units...

depending on wether this is a longer term problem or not, it could have quite an impact on their strategy since it could make for up for a factor of nearly 2 or more on the userbase and therefore their headstart...

Anyway, these sales target topics are boring and pointless. It's not anything that should concern us as 3D tech fanboiiis IMO. If anyone find this interesting, why not go to a board centering on financials/marketing or such?

because strong sales / launch impact has a direct effect on potential support...

 

[inefficient]

One can only asume Sony is taking notes right now.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

hmm, so from an average throughoutput of about 1 million units per month (90 days => 3 million units), they downshifted to [ (4 million / 7 months) || (5.5 million / 7 months ) ] ... 570'000 - 800'000 units...

depending on wether this is a longer term problem or not, it could have quite an impact on their strategy since it could make for up for a factor of nearly 2 or more on the userbase and therefore their headstart...

The 1 million in 3 months doesn't factor the 3 months stockpiling before launch. Monthly production is going to be hard to estimate. They're also getting a new fab online soon. I think the targets dropped from 6 million by june to 4 - 5.5, so worst case a 2/3rds anticipated capacity. What seems most different from previous reports is this is setting the target to 4 - 5.5, whereas a previous discussion suggested 4.5 extra units by June. It'd be nice to have some real post-Christmas sales figures. How likely is it the analysts are right with their 1.3 million mark?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Anyway, these sales target topics are boring and pointless. It's not anything that should concern us as 3D tech fanboiiis IMO. If anyone find this interesting, why not go to a board centering on financials/marketing or such?

In this case I'm interested in the produceability of the hardware design. We talk about console power, techniques and costs, but another factor oft overlooked is how well they can actually make the things. The dual GPU die for example is a different approach that seems to have traded (one assumes) lower costs with slower manufacturing.

Of course we're all really just killing time until the February PlayStation event now, but it gives something to yack about in the interim time

 

[Phil]

The 1 million in 3 months doesn't factor the 3 months stockpiling before launch. Monthly production is going to be hard to estimate. They're also getting a new fab online soon. I think the targets dropped from 6 million by june to 4 - 5.5, so worst case a 2/3rds anticipated capacity. What seems most different from previous reports is this is setting the target to 4 - 5.5, whereas a previous discussion suggested 4.5 extra units by June. It'd be nice to have some real post-Christmas sales figures. How likely is it the analysts are right with their 1.3 million mark?

Yeah, I am actually aware of that, but I just wanted to get a quick number to visualize the difference between x at y vs. q at r. You're right though, that doesn't factor in the production rate, but I would assume that production rate is non-linear and would increase as yields improve and the production matures.

If we factor in that they had roughly 1'000'000+ untis at the launch-window of two weeks [300'000 NA, 300'000 Europe, 150'000 Japan + x (second shipment to NA)]...

It would be really good to know how often they ship how many unit to derrive a meaningfull number...

 

[Powderkeg]

hmm, so from an average throughoutput of about 1 million units per month (90 days => 3 million units), they downshifted to [ (4 million / 7 months) || (5.5 million / 7 months ) ] ... 570'000 - 800'000 units...

depending on wether this is a longer term problem or not, it could have quite an impact on their strategy since it could make for up for a factor of nearly 2 or more on the userbase and therefore their headstart...

There are other factors at play as well.

Console sales are always weaker during the spring/early summer than they are during the holiday season. Even if the supply problems were corrected now they wouldn't be able to sell as many systems as they could ahve a month ago.

 

[fulcizombie]

Wasn't MS' ORIGINAL plan "2.75-3 million in the first 90 days,4.5-5.5 million until June"(taking into account the slower period in retail between January-June.)????

That just seems like usual negativity for MS by next generation to me.

 

[Powderkeg]

Wasn't MS' ORIGINAL plan "2.75-3 million in the first 90 days,4.5-5.5 million until June"(taking into account the slower period in retail between January-June.)????

That just seems like usual negativity for MS by next generation to me.

Yes, and I'd be willing to bet most of the discrepency is in preordered systems that were expected to have shipped out before the holidays but are now backordered all the way into March through some retailers.

 

[wco81]

Microsoft's whole strategy is based on beating Sony out of the gate.

Allard has been saying first one to reach 10 million will reach the critical mass and momentum to win the war outright.

MS doesn't just want to close the gap, they want to win the thing.

So many of the design decisions were predicated on getting to that point, whether we're talking about costs, manufacturability, marketability and availability of things like HD-DVD.

You can't talk about technology in a vacuum. We know there will never be technology developed purely for the sake of technology. It's always technology which people believe will make money and win share.

 

[scooby_dooby]

MS is kinda shooting themselves in the foot with these supply issues, it will be very interesting to see how many they can sell by the time PS3 is released, like Oct or Nov, that's what really matters.

 

[3roxor]

Microsoft's whole strategy is based on beating Sony out of the gate.

Allard has been saying first one to reach 10 million will reach the critical mass and momentum to win the war outright.

MS doesn't just want to close the gap, they want to win the thing.

So many of the design decisions were predicated on getting to that point, whether we're talking about costs, manufacturability, marketability and availability of things like HD-DVD.

You can't talk about technology in a vacuum. We know there will never be technology developed purely for the sake of technology. It's always technology which people believe will make money and win share.

What does he mean with "critical mass" ..? I still believe that in the end quality wins over quantity.

 

[Carl B]

MS is kinda shooting themselves in the foot with these supply issues, it will be very interesting to see how many they can sell by the time PS3 is released, like Oct or Nov, that's what really matters.

Well, released where though?

Because we all know the PS3 is going to 'launch' sooner than October.

(I am serious, though I jest)

 

[Alpha_Spartan]

I think it's rather because of the lack of blockbuster launch titles, if anything.

Yes, because we know that Xbox 360's are just sitting on the shelves collecting dust everywhere...