MS not to reach 3 million in 90 days Target

[Joe DeFuria]

From what I've read in this thread and am basing the following on, it seemed the sales of Dreamcast fell rapidly after the launch of PS2.

Actually developer support for DC had had problems from the beginning...lack of EA support, for example.

Devs never really seemed to get on board with the DC, which I believe is the single largest difference between DC and Xbox360. To say that the 360 has a lack of developer support, or that there are any signs of of developer support waning, would be lunacy.

This doesn't mean that devs could at some point abandon 360 for whatever reason...but the situation is drastically different between DC and XBox 360.

 

[Fox5]

I agree primarily with the highlighted part. It does seem Sony would need to make several mistakes with the PS3 to alter our expectations based on historically what's happened--and I've yet to see them make one.

But let's talk about the Dreamcast some more: 10 million units shipped/maybe sold in that first year, and you say that Sega lost well before they threw in the towel? This doesn't make sense to me (which is why I'm thinking it was 10 million shipped and hardly that number sold). My thinking is that it's too simple to suggest that simply shipping before Sony is doomed to failure--or as put forth earlier, that consumers view the Xbox 360 in the same light they did the Dreamcast. Note that the quote that started this by me was:

"I'm more inclined to think that once PS3 releases and they hit shortages, and Xbox 360s are readily available and 2nd gen games are starting to be released, then consumers will continue to buy large quantities of Xbox 360s."

This statement does not mean, as Fox5 put it, "When people are given a choice between what they want, and something that's 'Pretty much just as good, I think they'll wait rather than go with what's available." My statement is pretty clear that if consumers still want Xbox 360 in large quantitities and PS3 hits a shortage, it is an advantage for the Xbox 360. At which point all this talk of a failed launch would be forgotten.

Well, Dreamcast also had some very aggressive price cutting and bundling. Besides that Dreamcast had additional functionality beyond games, it did come with a modem and an Internet browser, the dreamcast suffered a $50 price cut within the first 6 months of its launch. Then over the summer, it had an aggressive rebate program that effectively made its cost $100, not to mention I think there was some free stuff included in the bundle. After the summer, Dreamcast received a permanent price cut to $100, just in time for PS2. I'm not sure how Dreamcast faired in Japan or Europe, but a $100 price cut on a $200 system within its first year doesn't bode well.
Then, despite being a $100 system in the face on an unavailable $300 PS2 and having a large selection of critically acclaimed games against the PS2's nothing...Dreamcast sales still bombed. Around this time Sega announced they wouldn't be sticking with the Dreamcast, though they didn't end support for it until the Gamecube and Xbox launched, they also dropped the price to $50 at this time to clear out inventory.

That said, if Sega had stuck things out, there's a good chance they could have finished 2nd this generation...but Sega was in way too much debt to stick it out, plus how would they revitalize interest in a failed system? By the time the actual software mattered for sales, the other 3 systems would have used their hype to catch up in sales and Sega's advantages would have been being the cheap system with Internet play. Also, within that 1 year from PS2's launch to Sega's complete withdrawal of support, I think the PS2 surpassed the Dreamcast's total sales.

Devs never really seemed to get on board with the DC, which I believe is the single largest difference between DC and Xbox360.

I believe the Dreamcast had more developer support than the Gamecube, and certainly more exclusives (most of the developers of which later became Xbox or PS2 exclusive developers). It only lacked major companies like EA and Square, who Nintendo had to pay for or make other deals to get their support on GameCube. Dreamcast also had quite a few PC ports, it was quite the Xbox in training.

 

[Sis]

Fox5--I agree with your conclusions about the Dreamcast fate. It lines up with what I remember of that time. And many of their actions, such as the price cutting, seemed to be out of desperation but always felt that if they had only stuck with it, they would have done "ok".

That said, I still see very little similarity between the DC and the Xbox 360, outside of releasing earlier. If in the next few months we start seeing desperation from the Microsoft camp, particularly by way of unusual price cuts, then I'll change my opinion :smile:

 

[Fox5]

Fox5--I agree with your conclusions about the Dreamcast fate. It lines up with what I remember of that time. And many of their actions, such as the price cutting, seemed to be out of desperation but always felt that if they had only stuck with it, they would have done "ok".

That said, I still see very little similarity between the DC and the Xbox 360, outside of releasing earlier. If in the next few months we start seeing desperation from the Microsoft camp, particularly by way of unusual price cuts, then I'll change my opinion :smile:

Well, out of all the things that are dissimilar, I just saw two things that were similar.
Saturn had a rushed launch with limited availability.
Xbox 360 had a rushed launch with limited availability. Except the 360's limited was about 10x the quantity of the Saturn, with an actual quality lineup of games. Not to mention it was expected, while the Saturn was a surprised release.

The other thing in common is that both the 360 and the Dreamcast came out a year before a much more anticipated and supposendly more powerful Playstation system. The original PSX didn't have that luxury, and took some time to catch on. Sega had a string of mistakes, Microsoft just has one mistake that means it won't have a substantial lead over Playstation 3 in sales, and there's no guarantee that the sales and momentum it has in the first year will mean jack when PS3 finally launches. Even if 360 reached the 10 million critical mass point Peter Moore talked about (kind of ironic considering the DC reached that point as well and Moore was CEO or COO or President or something of Sega at the time), there's no guarantee that the sales momentum will continue. I don't see a price drop in the 360's future for the 1st year though, and Dreamcast never had a killer app like Halo. Dreamcast had tons of solid releases, but it doesn't even have anything on par with Sonic from the rather unmemorable Genesis. If you look back at the big games that shaped the industry, Sonic is probably the only one that appeared exclusively on a Sega system.

 

[pegisys]

the PS2 didn't single handedly kill the dreamcast, it's hard to come back after a flop like the saturn

I think the biggest think Sony could do to hurt the Xbox would be to release PS3 at $299 for the full system even if it doesn't have a harddrive or accessories because I think more people will see it as a better value then the core pack

 

[Powderkeg]

I think there is one other factor you are forgetting about the Dreamcast.

It was the 3rd new system from Sega in just 5 years time, and that has a lot of influence on consumer confidence and developer support. With 2 short lived failures right before it, it's questionable how much long term demand there would have been for the system no matter what happened.

 

[Sis]

Well, out of all the things that are dissimilar, I just saw two things that were similar.
Saturn had a rushed launch with limited availability.
Xbox 360 had a rushed launch with limited availability. Except the 360's limited was about 10x the quantity of the Saturn, with an actual quality lineup of games. Not to mention it was expected, while the Saturn was a surprised release.

I believe this is your opinion. The "rushed" launch was in works since almost immediately after the Xbox launched, and it's my understanding that they've targeted Fall of 2005 since almost that time. Now whether that is still considered "rushed" is probably more opinion than anything.

Which leaves the other similarity being Xbox 360 is shipping before the PS3.