Unofficial MS Target: 10M X360's sales in 12-16mo timeframe

[Mefisutoferesu]

I can't make heads or tails out of you're flow chart...

As to Ubi/EA/MS 's localization records... though I can't comment specifically the general consensus I've gotten from Japanese gamers (dunno how it is in Europe) is that the translations are just as slow/bad/wonky as the J to E are.

EDIT -- Anyone have a rough idea of MS's production throughput on a monthly basis?? I remember hearing something along the lines of 500,000 XBoxes a month - no sure how accurate that is though - so assuming the same yields for Xbox 360 MS needs 6 months to produce 3 million.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I think MS can do 2-3 million by the end of Dec 05 and probably 11 millon by the end of Dec 06.

 

[mckmas8808]

Yeah is very possible. 10M doesn't seem that hard to me if they can stop people from buying PS3s. You have to remember most people aren't going to buy both consoles, better yet all three consoles in the first year. So somebody be it Sony, Nintendo, or MS will do horrible in comparision in the year 2006.

There will be a clear loser within the first year easy. Who that company is no one knows.

 

[BlueTsunami]

Yeah is very possible. 10M doesn't seem that hard to me if they can stop people from buying PS3s. You have to remember most people aren't going to buy both consoles, better yet all three consoles in the first year. So somebody be it Sony, Nintendo, or MS will do horrible in comparision in the year 2006.

There will be a clear loser within the first year easy. Who that company is no one knows.

Exactly, 10M would be an achievable amount if Microsoft was the only console in the business. By Dec having 10M you would have to pull in alot of hardcore gamers but most importantly casual gamers that are willing to shell out $299.99 (Not alot of money honestly but regular consumers would probably be more reluctant to pay that much) for the system. Factor in the people who are waiting for the PS3 or the Revolution then 10M to me, is a little to optomistic...

 

[wco81]

That 10 million figure is like a talisman for the Xbox guys.

Allard said first one to 10 million just wins, as if it's an astral body which has accreted enough mass to become a star.

 

[sonycowboy]

Yeah is very possible. 10M doesn't seem that hard to me if they can stop people from buying PS3s. You have to remember most people aren't going to buy both consoles, better yet all three consoles in the first year. So somebody be it Sony, Nintendo, or MS will do horrible in comparision in the year 2006.

There will be a clear loser within the first year easy. Who that company is no one knows.

The market has grown to be able to support 3 markets, IMO. Certainly, it will support the 360 and the PS3 at a high rate. 2006 won't show anything other than if Microsoft can have an absolute killer sell through for the whole year. The PS3 should sell like gangbusters for the period that it's out in 2006.

Holiday 2007 is where we'll start to see which horse will make the move. That's when the casual market will join full force and we'll see monster franchises going head-to-head on 2nd and 3rd generation games.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

I don't think so.

I think 2006 is the year thats going to be important and MS had better sell 10 million units by that time.

The biggest 'problem' with the X360 is that it is launching first. This is both an advantage and disadvantage. However, if X360 isn't available in significant quantity to meet the demand, they lose. Additionally, if the demand doesn't exist due to a lack of quality launch titles, they lose again. MS either has a huge advantage by launching first, or a huge disadvantage.

Very few of the 10 million consumers who buy a X360 through 2006 are going to buy a PS3 at launch. They've already chosen their console and will probably hold just one until the PS3 price falls.

IMO, its absolutely critical that the X360 is produced in large enough numbers to meet the demand and its absolutely critical that the X360 has enough high-quality, clearly next generation titles available AT launch in order to convince people not to wait for the PS3.

Pretty much, if X360 doesn't hit its target figures of 10 mil units sold through 2006, I don't think 2007 matters at all. MS will have lost.

 

[jvd]

I def think that is doable . This is about what the ps2 did in its first year world wide. Since ms has the launch advantage they may be able to get to 6 or so by the end of 2005 depending on how many they can make

6m by the end of 05? 6m in less than 2 months?

I know you're optimistic about X360 but seriously..

6 million is easy . 3 million usa , 2 million europe and 1 million japan

Anyway 10 million should be doable .

You have a good all around launch line up . I'm sure they can sell how ever many they can put out (same will go for sony and nitnendo when they launch naturaly )

Then in march you have a killer app in the name of gears of war . This game is breath taking and really is the first gmae to leap frog everything in terms of graphics . Its not just doing more , its not just doing higher quality its doing all this at the same time . Then whenever the ps3 launches u will get halo 3 plus some other suprises from ms .

After the ps3 launch your going to have some interesting stuff happening. But what will really matter is the cost of the consoles . If sony launches i n a higher price bracket ms may not have anything to worry about because the price + game line up + halo 3 may be enough to keep ms's sales up and sortages from a rumored world wide release of the ps3 may help them keep sales up also .


Ms is harping on the 10 million number because in an interview they said by the time they sold thier first million consoles sony already was at 10 million units

 

[JasonLD]

I def think that is doable . This is about what the ps2 did in its first year world wide. Since ms has the launch advantage they may be able to get to 6 or so by the end of 2005 depending on how many they can make

6m by the end of 05? 6m in less than 2 months?

I know you're optimistic about X360 but seriously..

6 million is easy . 3 million usa , 2 million europe and 1 million japan

MS's target is 2-3 million before end of year...10 million before 12-16 months...which is realistic target. Forgot the exact numbers but I heard the news somewhere..i forgot where though

 

[scooby_dooby]

PS3's biggest test wil be it's launch line-up. The X360 is gonna have a slew of good games by the PS3 launch, approx 60-100 games in total.

If it comes out with a weak or sub-par launch line-up it's gonna have a real hard time taking back the US from X360.

 

[sonycowboy]

I don't think so.

I think 2006 is the year thats going to be important and MS had better sell 10 million units by that time.

The biggest 'problem' with the X360 is that it is launching first. This is both an advantage and disadvantage. However, if X360 isn't available in significant quantity to meet the demand, they lose. Additionally, if the demand doesn't exist due to a lack of quality launch titles, they lose again. MS either has a huge advantage by launching first, or a huge disadvantage.

Very few of the 10 million consumers who buy a X360 through 2006 are going to buy a PS3 at launch. They've already chosen their console and will probably hold just one until the PS3 price falls.

IMO, its absolutely critical that the X360 is produced in large enough numbers to meet the demand and its absolutely critical that the X360 has enough high-quality, clearly next generation titles available AT launch in order to convince people not to wait for the PS3.

Pretty much, if X360 doesn't hit its target figures of 10 mil units sold through 2006, I don't think 2007 matters at all. MS will have lost.

That's assuming a Dreamcast scenario, that while there are some surface similiarities, is not going to happen to the 360.

 

[Evil_Cloud]

I def think that is doable . This is about what the ps2 did in its first year world wide. Since ms has the launch advantage they may be able to get to 6 or so by the end of 2005 depending on how many they can make

6m by the end of 05? 6m in less than 2 months?

I know you're optimistic about X360 but seriously..

6 million is easy . 3 million usa , 2 million europe and 1 million japan

Anyway 10 million should be doable .

You have a good all around launch line up . I'm sure they can sell how ever many they can put out (same will go for sony and nitnendo when they launch naturaly )

Then in march you have a killer app in the name of gears of war . This game is breath taking and really is the first gmae to leap frog everything in terms of graphics . Its not just doing more , its not just doing higher quality its doing all this at the same time . Then whenever the ps3 launches u will get halo 3 plus some other suprises from ms .

After the ps3 launch your going to have some interesting stuff happening. But what will really matter is the cost of the consoles . If sony launches i n a higher price bracket ms may not have anything to worry about because the price + game line up + halo 3 may be enough to keep ms's sales up and sortages from a rumored world wide release of the ps3 may help them keep sales up also .


Ms is harping on the 10 million number because in an interview they said by the time they sold thier first million consoles sony already was at 10 million units

Xbox is at 467,985 units sold in Japan. Three years!

The rest of Asia is a far more important market than Japan, about 1,2 million units have been sold in countries such as Korea and Singapore.

('Asia' = 1,7 million Xbox'es sold)

1 million is IMHO crazy to expect in such a time margin.

 

[jvd]

That's assuming a Dreamcast scenario, that while there are some surface similiarities, is not going to happen to the 360.

We already know it wont be a dreamcast scenario and those who keep bringing up the comparisons are just trying to troll .

The dreamcast was out 18 months before the ps2 . The dreamcast was launched at a much lower price point and was breaking even while the ps2 was lossing a 100+ per system .

The x360 will be out 6 months or so before the ps3 , the x360 should be loosing 75+ per system even at the 300$ price range .

The x360 has major support from major publishers , it has a good public image unlike sega and has alot of nifty features going for it .

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

PS3's biggest test wil be it's launch line-up. The X360 is gonna have a slew of good games by the PS3 launch, approx 60-100 games in total.

If it comes out with a weak or sub-par launch line-up it's gonna have a real hard time taking back the US from X360.

I don't think so. How many consumers who waited after the X360 launch to purchase one will do so later instead of buying the "new" PS3?

Not very many I'd imagine, unless there's a significant price difference between the two. Which means PS3 would either have to come to market much higher than those people who chose to wait expected, or the X360 will have to have a price cut in order to make it more attractive at that point.

People who see what the X360 has to offer at launch and make the decision to wait are going to be VERY difficult to convince to turn around and purchase the console they very well could have had 6 months ago.

The X360 is going to require a very strong launch, and then build on it by continuing to release quality titles and THEN will still need either a price cut or Halo 3 or some other blockbuster available at PS3 launch. But if they don't have that strong launch, the others won't be enough to help them recover.

Unless ofcourse the PS3 has an incredibly weak launch, but I doubt that will happen because PS3 launch will have the benefit of numerous X360 ports.

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

One thing that occured to me about the Xbox 360 launch... EA is launching across multiple platforms.

That is to say the games that EA will have on the Xbox 360 will also be available on the Xbox/PS2. This could be a bit of a danger, since (knowing EA) we won't see much of a graphical improvement on the games aside from a bit of an IQ up. As such, I imagine the average gamer won't really notice the difference and will just opt to buy the game for the current gen, especially since it would bypass having to spend 300 dollars. It could go the otherway, but seeing how it's EA and people are cheap... it seems like something to worry about.

Then again, how much of a system seller is EA in general??

 

[Oda]

By referencing the 360 to the DC I was not in any way implying that the 360 will have the same fate as the DC (ie. MS bails on it 2 years later), because we all know this won't ever happen. My point is that MS is approaching this launch of theirs in the exact same mindset as Sega did; no coincedence that Peter Moore, now with MS, was with Sega at that time.

Anyways, I think one interesting factor to keep in mind is Japan. Clearly MS is trying somewhat to get more JP developers, going so far as to bankroll the entire production processes for 3 different up and coming JP devs. However, none of the titles that MS hopes will appeal to the Japanese audience will release for the 360 before 2006 at the earliest, as stated by the respective developers.

That means MS isn't going to have any advantage in terms of launching first in Japan, as virtually no one there will care about the system until those titles release. And I think you'd all agree, that the 360 going head-to-head against the PS3 in Japan will lose, by a large margin. The fact alone that Japanese gamers know that the next Final Fantasy is PS3 bound will cause them to snatch up the system post-haste, whether it releases in 2006 or 2007.

I'm predicting that because of this, the PS3 will once again gain the lionshare of the Japanese dev support, and we'll have to see if this has the same effect on next gen as it did on this.

The reason the PS2 sold so freakin' well in its first year is that we all knew we had magnificent gaming ahead of us. Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, etc. MS needs to focus less on believing this early launch will solve all their problems, and focus more on letting gamers know that a crap load of established franchises from proven devs are coming soon.

Sony has already done this with the PS3.

 

[BlueTsunami]

As long as the Dragon Quest series is on the Playstation, it will ALWAYS kill in Japan....

 

[Titanio]

6 million is easy . 3 million usa , 2 million europe and 1 million japan

Anyway 10 million should be doable .

...


Ms is harping on the 10 million number because in an interview they said by the time they sold thier first million consoles sony already was at 10 million units

Errr...they're not talking about 10m by the end of the year, but 10m by the time their competitors launches.

6m this year is not going to happen...I don't think they could even manufacture that number by year's end. When has any home system sold 6m in 2 months? I think they'll sell 3-4m tops by year's end. 3-4m would be bloody great in fact. You're talking about 6 weeks here.

 

[EndR]

As I see it, for MS.. it is a win/win situation.
Microsoft is bound to gain more marketshare with 360 and this will be noticed by consumers and by developers and "certain" dev:cos that have been making exclusive content for Playstation, will not do this any longer, because their goal is to maximize sales and by going multiplatform, they will do this. This will also affect the gfx of games.. devs will be using more and more middleware solutions and therefore, the games will look the same on both 360 and PS3. If MS can sell the 360 for a lower price, then consumers will see this also...

Now for the win/win situation...
MS will without a doubt gain marketshare and will probably make some profits with the 360. MS will probably not "win" (maybe they do, might have some aces on their sleves)... but they will make a huge impact and shorten the gap to sony marketshare-wise..

Now, enter the generation after 360 and PS3.. Sony should be scared because then it is more likely that MS passes Sony. MS is in it for the long run and if they don´t win it now, they will win it the next time. For Sony, it is crucial to not let MS gain that much marketshare, but there is nothing Sony can do about it.. MS will gain marketshare with 360 and will therefore make the next next gen wars more difficult for Sony...

So.. bottom line, MS will, in time, pass Sony... no questions about it...

 

[Magnum PI]

So.. bottom line, MS will, in time, pass Sony... no questions about it...

to keep it short: you have the faith