Should Nintendo or Microsoft adopt Blu-ray for their next console?

[DeadlyNinja]

Where does Cost factor into your equations?

Like I said, how about flash memory? The prices are pretty cheap now for 4 gigs. I hope this generation will last a bit so when we do make the switch, 16 gigs or even 32 gigs would be relatively cheap.

Oh and I like storing stuff within the game for various reasons. If your harddrive dies, it wipes out EVERYTHING; all your game saves, patches, DLC, the works. Even if a single game dies, at least it won't affect everything else. That's why I want to see someone explore this option of writable media for game storage.

 

[obonicus]

Cost is ubiquitous. I'd rather stakeholders argue and bicker over how to maximise return-on-investment, and other such metrics that feed their families; and feed their ideas of progress... : )

Aren't we stakeholders (I assume you mean something diferent from shareholders)? Are we willing to start paying $100 a game again?

 

[DeadlyNinja]

When were games ever 100 bucks? The most I paid was $69.99. During the late N64 days, I was paying $49.99 for huge games like Paper Mario and Ogre Battle 64. That's 10 dollars cheaper than today's 360/PS3 game.

 

[I.S.T.]

old school RPGs cost that much due to the added cost of the SRAM. Specifically, I think it was Phantasy Star 4.

 

[DeadlyNinja]

I bought Chrono Trigger for $59.99. I've never seen an SNES game go above $69.99. I know about Neo Geo games being in the 100s.

 

[liolio]

My contribution to the topic is "yes"

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Like I said, how about flash memory? The prices are pretty cheap now for 4 gigs.

That debate has been had here. 'Pretty cheap' is still way, way more expensive than pressing optical disks. Unless that cost is passed onto the buyers, it won't happen. I can't say I'd be totally opposed to paying an extra 5 quid for a dinky little SD card that runs the game with virtually instantly load like the good old days, but I'm not expecting it.

 

[j^aws]

Aren't we stakeholders (I assume you mean something diferent from shareholders)? Are we willing to start paying $100 a game again?

Yes, I don't mean "shareholders". I mean "stakeholders" in the sense of actively/ knowingly being involved in a business model/ project to launch such a venture... Both get 'paid' in some sense, but "stakeholders" are more closely involved...

The business model can incorporate whatever contraints and metrics you want to throw at it; changing one will undoubtedly affect another. Pricing and profit are undoubtedly important elements; but as I mentioned earlier, I personally want speed emphasised, and the rest will take whatever form that fits an arbritary model...

 

[zed]

That debate has been had here. 'Pretty cheap' is still way, way more expensive than pressing optical disks. Unless that cost is passed onto the buyers, it won't happen. I can't say I'd be totally opposed to paying an extra 5 quid for a dinky little SD card that runs the game with virtually instantly load like the good old days, but I'm not expecting it.

you might wanna forget about the idea of instant load as well, IIRC(*) flash aint much faster than optical media (true seeking times would be quicker I assume)

(*)wikipedia is down for me at the moment so cant check

 

[slapnutz]

Online only is a long way away. Why, coz the entire world doesnt have ISPs with good bandwidth/cost ratios.

Download speed is one thing, actual month data cap vs cost is a whole other problem.

Simpy put, the market isnt big enough for it yet for devs to consider a profitiable medium. (compared to the market size of "people buying discs". You have to think outiside US and Europe.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

you might wanna forget about the idea of instant load as well, IIRC(*) flash aint much faster than optical media (true seeking times would be quicker I assume)

Yes. That was discussed in the big thread on this topic. Hypothetically I wouldn't mind, but at the moment it's not a valid option. I'd like to hear where j^aws is going to extract extra speed from. Load times seem inevitable, unless someone produces a DRAM/flash combination replacement of non-volatile but fast memory!

 

[Crossbar]

you might wanna forget about the idea of instant load as well, IIRC(*) flash aint much faster than optical media (true seeking times would be quicker I assume)

(*)wikipedia is down for me at the moment so cant check

If you settle for SD Cards the bandwidth will of course be limited by the card interface, but even if we use the currently fastest SD Card from Sandesk which has a read/write speed of 30 MB/s, any game for the PS3 and 360 should load all content within about 10 seconds as there are no seek times (assuming some memory is used for dynamic content: variables, framebuffers etc.). Which is not to bad IMO compared to many current games.

Of course faster flash cards can be developed if there is a market for it. The fast Sandesk SD card was developed to enable recording full HD 1920x1080 videos at a data transfer rate of 24MB/s.

It is of course also easier to improve read speeds than write speeds.

 

[j^aws]

[...] I'd like to hear where j^aws is going to extract extra speed from. [...]

Okay, so what's really being asked here? Does one take an arbitrary budget, and make it profitable in N years? Design goals: Bring back the nostalgic days of console cartridges; exploit modern state-of-the-art technologies; instantaneous feel, i.e. minimize any waiting experience?

What would Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony design?

What would a new competitor design?

What would be the ideal design?

What would I personally design? A Holodeck . : )

 

[RudeCurve]

If you settle for SD Cards the bandwidth will of course be limited by the card interface, but even if we use the currently fastest SD Card from Sandesk which has a read/write speed of 30 MB/s, any game for the PS3 and 360 should load all content within about 10 seconds as there are no seek times (assuming some memory is used for dynamic content: variables, framebuffers etc.). Which is not to bad IMO compared to many current games.

Of course faster flash cards can be developed if there is a market for it. The fast Sandesk SD card was developed to enable recording full HD 1920x1080 videos at a data transfer rate of 24MB/s.

It is of course also easier to improve read speeds than write speeds.

I'd rather have a game stored on a optical disc and then installed onto a HDD. Even an average 7200rpm HDD with 32MB of cache can transfer data at 70MB/s.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Okay, so what's really being asked here? Does one take an arbitrary budget, and make it profitable in N years? Design goals: Bring back the nostalgic days of console cartridges; exploit modern state-of-the-art technologies; instantaneous feel, i.e. minimize any waiting experience?

You pitched the idea of retro carts and the console companies aiming for speed of loading, no? So I guess the question is, what solution is practical for a next-gen console to reintroduce a 'cart' based system that elliminates much of the loading times, but which remains a practical, affordable implementation?

 

[Boxercide]

You pitched the idea of retro carts and the console companies aiming for speed of loading, no? So I guess the question is, what solution is practical for a next-gen console to reintroduce a 'cart' based system that elliminates much of the loading times, but which remains a practical, affordable implementation?

Keep in mind when he says that, he means for game companies who have to pay for millions of these carts. right now, pressing discs is ridonkulously cheap.

These hypothetical "cartridges" will cost them quite a bit more. Especially when they have to engineer them with read only game area that can never be erased, and then the patch and game save space which is basically going to have to be open to the consumer.

 

[j^aws]

You pitched the idea of retro carts and the console companies aiming for speed of loading, no?

Well, it wasn’t really a “pitch”, but more of a ‘what I’d like to see’ emphasised; I sidestepped the “Cost” argument by passing it to the “stakeholders” earlier… But I’ve given more thought to the points in your rephrased question and points raised by damienw: I can see your points, but I can also develop a business model and a strategy to counter them…

What I don’t have are ‘nailed’ down numbers, nor a proof-of-concept/ prototype, but I do have a skeleton model in mind, and even a marketing strategy. This road would probably suit Microsoft the most, or a new competitor, but it can be applied to anyone really; depending on partnerships involved and existing strategies etc... It takes into consideration retailers, publishers, developers, consumers, used market etc. without really adding more risk. It does 'attack' the optical media though, and those that have an interest in maintaining its 'status quo'...

It’s a cunning plan; more cunning than Professor Cunning from Cunningham University!

Well, maybe not, but it’s cunning enough for me to consider it a “pitch” with merit, and think: “Why wouldn’t/ couldn’t anyone else think of this?”… So what is the plan? I could reveal moar, but I’ll hafta shoot-chya! : )

 

[Boxercide]

from: http://www.studiobriefing.net/studi...STREAMING_LIKELY_YEARS_AWAY,_SAYS_REPORT.html

"It is likely to be at least five years years before high-definition movies can be streamed to home theaters with the same resolution as Blu-ray discs, according to a study by PriceWaterhouseCoopers and reported on the Video Business magazine's website. Although millions of homes are already connected to video services that claim to offer HDTV titles, via streaming, the quality doesn't even match that of standard DVDs and the "flow" is sometimes jerky. The problem in many cases is that most consumers' broadband connections are too slow to stream HD video which ideally requires an 18- to 20-megabits-per-second connection. (The average broadband subscriber's connection is about 2.5 mbps.) "

2.5 mbps would make downloadable only games the biggest pain ever, especially when combined with usage caps.

 

[V3]

Yep, In some country I've seen usage cap as low as 5 GB/month on 25 Mbits connection.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Ouch, thank goodness at least in the US and Japan the broadband is still mostly uncapped. Well with the exception of some cable providers in the US.

I may only have a 7 mbps connection but not having to worry about a cap makes it just peachy for most things. Although I do so miss my 100 mbps FTTH connection in Japan. Although a downside of that was that almost all connections out of the country were throttled down to between 2-10 mbps. Multiple downloads could still max it though. But wouldn't be very good for reliable streaming outside the country.

Anyway, I really wouldn't mind downloadable delivery of games for next gen consoles. Perhaps provide an option external drive (for additional cost) for those that still want physical media.

I've already started purchasing most of my PC games entirely online through Steam or sometimes Direct2Drive. The only time I bother with physical media anymore is if it includes nice pre-order bonuses or has a key to basically make it into a Steam game.

Even better if they allowed games to be downloaded onto any machine at home and then transferred to the console. Heck that right there would be yet another way people could use "legacy" physical media to get a game onto a "driveless" console.

Regards,
SB