Rumor: Xbox 360 Japanese launch may slip to Q1 2006

[mckmas8808]

The point is that unless bluray movies are all both dvd and bluray versions on one disc then the fact that some of the titles can not play on dvd players will affect the buying choices of consumers. The average consumer in a house who has 4 tvs each with a dvd player who then gets a ps3 aren't going to buy a bluray only disc and unless we have an announcement that each disc will have both formats on it this point will still stand .

Now if I can only get Howard Stringer to read your comment. I think it will be kinda stupid not to make all movies Tri-layed. To me the adoption rate would pick you quicker. I think HD-DVD should do that also. Buying one disc and being able to play it on my PS3 and my DVD player upstairs is important.

 

[jvd]

Now if I can only get Howard Stringer to read your comment. I think it will be kinda stupid not to make all movies Tri-layed. To me the adoption rate would pick you quicker. I think HD-DVD should do that also. Buying one disc and being able to play it on my PS3 and my DVD player upstairs is important.

oh i agree on both formats . However we don't know the limitations of this .

Pc-engine posted a link about problems with dual layer discs . Now i don't know if this is the rom or the write discs . However it may just be a matter of the sl bluray with dual layer dvd discs being harder to produce and thus being much more expensive . Same on the hd-dvd . HOwever I believe for the hd-dvd disc its 2 layers of hd-dvd on one side and then basicly a dual layer dvd on the other .

 

[Iron Tiger]

Quote:
In 2000, Sony released its PlayStation 2 console in Japan. In addition to playing video games developed for the system, it was also able to play DVD movies. In Japan, this proved to be a huge selling point due to the fact that the PS2 was much cheaper than many of the DVD players available there. As a result, many electronic stores that normally did not carry video game consoles carried PS2s.
Source

Same article

By the spring of 1999, the price of a DVD player had dropped below the US $300 mark. At that point Wal-Mart began to offer DVD players for sale in its stores. When Wal-Mart began selling DVDs in their stores, DVDs represented only a small part of their video inventory; VHS tapes of movies made up the remainder. As of today, the situation is now completely reversed; most retail stores offer mostly DVDs for sale, while VHS copies of movies are now the minority of sales. The price of a DVD player has dropped to below the level of a typical VCR; a low-end player can be purchased for under US$30 in a number of retail stores. Most, but not all, movie "sets" or series have been released in box sets, as have some entire seasons or selected episode volumes of older and newer television programs. In June 2005, Wal-Mart and several other retailers announced plans to phase out the VHS format entirely, in favor of the more popular DVD format. [1]

So it already hit below 300$ the year before . So what gives . Even by the part you posted they said there were already cheaper dvd players .

NOt to mention that once again it was out from 96 and had 4 years to build up a library and hype

We're talking about Japan here, and you quoted the details of the US sales. In Japan, DVD players cost way more than the PS2 at its launch, even though they cost ~$80 less than it in the US by that time.

And I think it's too early to say that BR (or even HD-DVD) won't be of value to people that don't have HDTVs. When I got my first DVD player, I had a crappy TV with just coax RF input. The DVD player made me want something more, so I upgraded to one with composite. Then I upgraded again to one with S-video and component. And eventually I got an HDTV to get the most out of my DVDs. For somebody with a crappy RF only TV, DVD doesn't look much better than VHS, but there's STILL people that have such TVs and own DVD players, so some of the other features of DVDs have to be of value to those people

That is you . For every person who upgrades that often there is a person who has had the same tv for 18 years and is trying to get through another year for it . Not to mention people who spent thousands a few years ago for big projection tvs that aren't going to spend thousands to replace them right now .

Once again for someone with a sd set bluray only adds cost and nothing else . Saying it will future proof your purchase doesn't help as it could be years before they go hd-tv and thus years to recoup thier money .

That's why I said it's too early to say DVD will offer no value to SD owners. The picture and audio quality improvement may be noticeable (DVD is far from perfect, even on an SDTV), and we don't yet know what extras might be offered. When I started buying DVDs, it was mainly for the extras. For years prior, I had no incentive to buy movies because commercial VHS tapes offered no discernable advantage to just getting HBO and recording stuff myself.

One advantage I'd expect BR (and HD-DVD) to have over DVD is less or no compression artifacting visible on SD/EDTVs. I have plenty of DVDs that look like crap on my SDTVs because of compression. If people can be assured of flawless pictures, they may decide it's worth the expense.

It depends on how many see these artifacts . Alot most likely don't or don't care or want to spend the money on the bluray or hd-dvd disc.

Again, it could just come down to the extras. All the tech companies are banking heavily on the next gen disc formats, so they have to be offering up some incentive. The next gen will either come from noticeable improvement in image/audio quality, accelerated adoption of HDTV, or the industry acting together to kill off DVD and push the new technology. Hype is a mighty powerful sales tool, and if you've got enough people thinking their current media format is about to die, they'll adopt its replacement eventually.

Once again according to your link dvds were out in japan 4 years before the ps2 meaning there was a huge library of content out there . Bluray will just be launching and even if they put out a 100 titles that still is nothing compared to dvd . It will also carry a price premium and can't be played on other tvs .

But we don't know that it will carry a price premium. They may cost more than current DVDs to manufacture, but companies may choose to absorb those cost initially to promote sales, as they know costs will decrease as the format gains widespread popularity.

randy

...a market that is reaching forward to embrace HD- a perfect time to enter the market, indeed.

a low percentage of a market that has adopted it dispite being out for a good 4 or 5 years now ?

A small sum that will still take the rest of the decade to over take the sd installed base ?

I refer you to your comments about DVD and the PS2. Wasn't the format out for 4 or 5 years before the PS2 came out? But the PS2 played a significant role in its widespread adoption. Who's to say the same won't happen for HDTV with HD native consoles coming out.

a weaker rival, that has also lost its trojan horse. It might as well not be a rival, at all, at this point. So yes, BR is well poised to be the defacto successor, at this point.

Weaker says who ? Hd-dvd is set to launch this year with a ton of titles and has some big movie franchises from the past few years . The only weakness it has is not being in a console . However that may not even matter depending on prices of the hd-dvd drives and the media released for it .

You may think its well poised but others don't believe so .

What have you got against BR that makes you so blind to the facts? The specs give it an edge over HD-DVD, it already launched in Japan last year, and should hit other territories this year with plenty of support from movie studios. Not to mention, the top-grossing movie of 2004 is going to be on it exclusively.

The cost increase to the consumer may be negligible, so "5" is shakey.

Your saying sony will release hd content at the same price as sd content ?

Remember dvds came out at 30-35$ for a dvd . You can now get new titles for 10-15$ We will most likely see them hit 10$ when these hd options come out . So even if sony puts it out for 20-25$ your still going to have a 10-15$ price diffrence . Which is the cost of a dvd . To many thats alot.

There are UMDs that SELL for $30, and even higher in Japan. If the content is worth it, I bet a lot of SDTV owners would be willing to pay up to $30 for a next gen DVD.

As for your next point that is shakey . Few people will claim something looks bette rwhen it doesn't . If they are told it should then they will be at the store asking why its not looking better and returning it .

I don't know who your talking about that will fool themselves into thinking something is alright when it isn't

Remember the Dreamcast vs. the PS2? I'll say it again, hype is a powerful sales tool.

 

[randycat99]

I don't know who your talking about that will fool themselves into thinking something is alright when it isn't

That's gotta be quote-worthy in somebody's sig, people! C'mon, somebody scoop that one up. This is pure gold!

 

[Ty]

Pc-engine posted a link about problems with dual layer discs . Now i don't know if this is the rom or the write discs .

He apparently was wrong about the article as others pointed out.

 

[jvd]

We're talking about Japan here, and you quoted the details of the US sales. In Japan, DVD players cost way more than the PS2 at its launch, even though they cost ~$80 less than it in the US by that time

Hmm i read it as the price had droped below the us 300$ mark . Meaning 300$ usd . Not that it only droped below the 300$ mark in the usa .

Amd I reading it wrong .

Aside from that the other part said that there were cheaper units on sale in japan when the ps2 launched .

That's why I said it's too early to say DVD will offer no value to SD owners

I take it u mean bluray

1) extras ? I don't see extras being vastly diffrent . Dvds have an extra disc with them anyway . That wont change. I can't really think of an extra that isn't offered on a dvd and certianly not one that warrents a price premium

yes i bought them for the extras , mainly commentery . But can you think of something not offered on a dvd that they can offer on bluray ? Personaly it may be the other way with dvds getting more features as ther eis the huge installed base .

The next gen will either come from noticeable improvement in image/audio quality, accelerated adoption of HDTV, or the industry acting together to kill off DVD and push the new technology

They wont kill off dvds . It will be a cash cow for the next 4 or 5 years befoe it start slipping . Esp not now when its finaly hitting cars and portable players in mass

It will simply change hands with dvds like vhs did . Slowly as more people get hdtvs they will switch over esp once the content starts coming . For dvds that took a few years . Which is why i keep saying that dvd was at a diffrent point in its life cycle when the ps2 launched than bluray will be when the ps3 launches .

But we don't know that it will carry a price premium. They may cost more than current DVDs to manufacture, but companies may choose to absorb those cost initially to promote sales, as they know costs will decrease as the format gains widespread popularity.

there is almost no chance this will happen .

It didn't happen with dvds or vhs and it wont happen now . They will sell them higher and make money off it . That is the whole reason why they want to replace them . Because they know they can charge a preimum for a few years over dvds .

If it was all about sales they wouldn't introduce a format to start to kill off a still growing format .

refer you to your comments about DVD and the PS2. Wasn't the format out for 4 or 5 years before the PS2 came out? But the PS2 played a significant role in its widespread adoption. Who's to say the same won't happen for HDTV with HD native consoles coming out.

Its diffrent . dvd players are much cheaper and had much more content than hd-tv has 4 years in .

Its two diffrent things . Just like dvds in 2000 are diffrent than bluray in 2006 .

Not only that but the ps2 did not play a significant role in its wide spread adoptions.

2000

8.5 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 13,922,000.)
About 46 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
Over 10,000 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S.
Belgium: 100 thousand installed base
France: 1.2 million installed base
Germany: 1.2 million installed base
Italy: 360 thousand installed base
Netherlands: 200 thousand installed base
Spain: 300 thousand installed base
Sweden: 120 thousand installed base
Switzerland: 250 thousand installed base
UK: 1 million installed base

I was off on the number of stand alone players

But in 2000 you had 14 million stand alone players and 46 million dvd roms world wide . with a 10k titles in the usa .

When bluray launches in 2006 you will have under a 100 titles and a hand full of bluray players released .

That is a world of diffrence .

It took ps3 over a year to sell 10 million units world wide .

In 2001

12.7 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 26,629,000.)
Over 45 million DVD-ROM drives in the U.S.
Over 90 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
UK: 3 million installed base

So world wide you had 17 million more players than ps2s shipped . And 80 million more dvd-rom drives all capable of playing dvd movies .

bluray and dvd are not at the same point in thier lives when the respective systems launch/ed

What have you got against BR that makes you so blind to the facts? The specs give it an edge over HD-DVD, it already launched in Japan last year, and should hit other territories this year with plenty of support from movie studios. Not to mention, the top-grossing movie of 2004 is going to be on it exclusively.

Err hd-dvd clearly has a price advantage . It wlil have lord of the rings tirlogy and batman begins along with other big titles .

I don't see bluray having an edge at all . IN fact i see both having strong points .

Its obvous that some big studios feel that way too or no one but toshiba would be supporting hd-dvd

There are UMDs that SELL for $30, and even higher in Japan. If the content is worth it, I bet a lot of SDTV owners would be willing to pay up to $30 for a next gen DVD.

What else are you going to do with your shinny new psp ?

IN america there are 15$ umds that don't sell . However every owner of a psp cna take advantage of umd . Every owner of a ps3 wont be able to take advantage of bluray .

Remember the Dreamcast vs. the PS2? I'll say it again, hype is a powerful sales tool.

heh many based thier opinions on tech demos from sony . By the time actual game content was shown and hitting store shelves in japan the dc was already a year old .

Bluray wont have that advantage as the only way to see the diffrence is to own hdtv and if you own hdtv you don't fit into the people i'm talking about .

 

[jvd]

Pc-engine posted a link about problems with dual layer discs . Now i don't know if this is the rom or the write discs .

He apparently was wrong about the article as others pointed out.

Is that how it ended ? I don't remember it ending that way . Do you have the link ?

 

[Ty]

Is that how it ended ? I don't remember it ending that way . Do you have the link ?

Didn't you lock it? /shrug. Anyhow you replied after it was shown he got the article wrong.

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=565424&highlight=chinese#565424

 

[Iron Tiger]

Amd I reading it wrong .

Aside from that the other part said that there were cheaper units on sale in japan when the ps2 launched .

Yes you are reading it wrong. Go back to the part I quoted. It was about the Japanese territory and it says that the PS2 cost less than most DVD players. The word "most" leaves open the possibility that there were some players that cost less, but those few were likely comparable to the crap reject ones you find at Wal-Mart and only buy for people your granny because she'd forever be behind the times if you didn't.

But we don't know that it will carry a price premium. They may cost more than current DVDs to manufacture, but companies may choose to absorb those cost initially to promote sales, as they know costs will decrease as the format gains widespread popularity.

there is almost no chance this will happen .

It didn't happen with dvds or vhs and it wont happen now . They will sell them higher and make money off it . That is the whole reason why they want to replace them . Because they know they can charge a preimum for a few years over dvds .

If it was all about sales they wouldn't introduce a format to start to kill off a still growing format .

They're already absorbing costs when they sell those packages with 1 or 2 additional discs worth of extra content.

refer you to your comments about DVD and the PS2. Wasn't the format out for 4 or 5 years before the PS2 came out? But the PS2 played a significant role in its widespread adoption. Who's to say the same won't happen for HDTV with HD native consoles coming out.

Its diffrent . dvd players are much cheaper and had much more content than hd-tv has 4 years in .

You can get an HDTV for $400 now. That's not much too more than the cost of a DVD player 4 years in. Not to mention the greater value as anything you watch on it may look better. Also, there's digital satellite services, HD digital cable, OTA HD broadcasts, and next gen consoles. That's plenty of content right there.

Not only that but the ps2 did not play a significant role in its wide spread adoptions.

2000

8.5 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 13,922,000.)
About 46 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
Over 10,000 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S.
Belgium: 100 thousand installed base
France: 1.2 million installed base
Germany: 1.2 million installed base
Italy: 360 thousand installed base
Netherlands: 200 thousand installed base
Spain: 300 thousand installed base
Sweden: 120 thousand installed base
Switzerland: 250 thousand installed base
UK: 1 million installed base

I was off on the number of stand alone players

But in 2000 you had 14 million stand alone players and 46 million dvd roms world wide . with a 10k titles in the usa .

When bluray launches in 2006 you will have under a 100 titles and a hand full of bluray players released .

That is a world of diffrence .

It took ps3 over a year to sell 10 million units world wide .

In 2001

12.7 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 26,629,000.)
Over 45 million DVD-ROM drives in the U.S.
Over 90 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
UK: 3 million installed base

So world wide you had 17 million more players than ps2s shipped . And 80 million more dvd-rom drives all capable of playing dvd movies .

bluray and dvd are not at the same point in thier lives when the respective systems launch/ed

The idea is to get a single DVD player into your home (the Trojan Horse), which you start buying movies for. Then you end up wanting more players, so you can watch your movie collection in other rooms of your house. So, of course, standalone DVD players are going to outsell your Trojan Horse. That's exactly what they want! Remember, BR is mainly backed by consumer electronics manufacturers which produce players as well as TVs. HD-DVD is mainly backed by disc media manufacturers. The Trojan Horse tactic is gonna work out better for the guys that make the hardware. Or at least it will with the next gen format, as it's going to sell HDTVs as well as players.
Also notice how there was a big surge in sales between 2000 and 2001, precisely the time the PS2 was introduced. That's the Trojan Horse tactic in affect.

What have you got against BR that makes you so blind to the facts? The specs give it an edge over HD-DVD, it already launched in Japan last year, and should hit other territories this year with plenty of support from movie studios. Not to mention, the top-grossing movie of 2004 is going to be on it exclusively.

Err hd-dvd clearly has a price advantage .

No price advantage yet, because no titles are on the market. It has a cost advantage, which is why the media manufacturers are backing it.

There are UMDs that SELL for $30, and even higher in Japan. If the content is worth it, I bet a lot of SDTV owners would be willing to pay up to $30 for a next gen DVD.

What else are you going to do with your shinny new psp ?

IN america there are 15$ umds that don't sell . However every owner of a psp cna take advantage of umd . Every owner of a ps3 wont be able to take advantage of bluray .

Bluray wont have that advantage as the only way to see the diffrence is to own hdtv and if you own hdtv you don't fit into the people i'm talking about .

We haven't seen any BR movies yet, and DVD quality has a lot of room to improve. BR can definitely capitalize on that and people may see the difference. Besides, they really don't have to with this hype machine that can simply throw up graphs and pie charts and convince people that something is worth buying.

 

[jvd]

Is that how it ended ? I don't remember it ending that way . Do you have the link ?

Didn't you lock it? /shrug. Anyhow you replied after it was shown he got the article wrong.

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=565424&highlight=chinese#565424

Prob , iread every post on in here though , after awhile its hard to remember everything .

 

[jvd]

Iron tiger.

My point is that bluray is not in the same place at the ps3 launch that dvd was at the ps2 launch .

You have yet to prove it .

I really don't care the about bluray and how it will do in the future as it has nothing to do with my point nor my posts .

You are arugeing something that has nothing to do with my ponit or my posts .

Yes in 4 years bluray or hd-dvd will have sold alot of units like dvd did in 200 , have 10k titles like dvd had in 2000 and may be the standard .

 

[jvd]

TY

(iv) Why single layer ? In spirit and essence, they feel that the proper single layer "specs" will preserve the long term investment of the blue ray industry, especially from consumer perspective. e.g., Once a consumer buy a 1st gen BR disks, it'd be "wrong" to force them to upgrade to a 2nd gen BR disk. They believe that once they optimize the 1L BR-RE (in terms of manufacturing investments, and BR performances), making multi-layer disks can come naturally (so Matushita's 50Gb 2L disk may be obsoleted).

Is this settled yet ? It sounds like he is saying if they put out a 25 gb disc and then a year later up it to 30 gig disc then anyone with the older drives wont work ? Am i reading that right

 

[Iron Tiger]

Yes, the PS3 is going to be introduced in a different market than the PS2 was. And taking into consideration all the differences, I feel it's all the more likely that the PS3 will act as a catalyst to BR adoption. There's going to be few BR players on the market when the PS3 hits, so it'll be the biggest seller of BR titles. The PSP shows that people are willing to buy redundant media if it offers up something different. The advantage that BR has over UMD movies is that you'll be able to play those movies on more than one device. Lots of companies will produce the players, costs will go down, a lot of credit will be due to the PS3.

To get back on topic, Japanese consumers are going to see the PS3 as offering up more than the X360, and the BRD playback is only one of those advantages. A stable of domestically tailored games is another one. If the X360 launches early, it won't have enough Japanese games. If it launches too late, it'll be going up against the PS3 which has more features.

We really don't know enough about the Japanese HD market to even be making comparisons to DVD or anything, so I apologize for any derailment I may have caused. I still think the X360 is in a no-win position in Japan. The only thing they can hope for is to keep the Japanese developers they have so us folks in other territories can have more variety in our selection of games.

 

[PC-Engine]

Is that how it ended ? I don't remember it ending that way . Do you have the link ?

Didn't you lock it? /shrug. Anyhow you replied after it was shown he got the article wrong.

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=565424&highlight=chinese#565424

I was wrong because the thread got locked?

Try again.

I was right actually, but it was referring to RW BD.

Why do you think I mentioned $50 DL BRDs??? I'm not aware of any $50 BRDs that are ROMs.

 

[jvd]

Its fine it took me awhile to figure out what was going on . You were just missing my statement and point .

Bluray will omst likely succeed because of ps3 . However I think its adoption is going to still be stuntent by hd-dvd .

I'm only currently interested in hd-dvd because of evil dead .

But i may get really interested in it if the hd-dvd-rs are cheap as i currently go through a ton of dvds between myself and my sister .

 

[PC-Engine]

BR adoption will be pretty slow considering HD DVD has most of the big name movies that people actually want to buy. People are pretty tired of the same old Spiderman 2.

The thing about BR is that they're hyping recording capacity from the beginning but are now backpedaling to SL recordable BRDs.

I see HD DVD having a huge advantage in pricing of blank 30GB DL HD DVD-Rs.

 

[jvd]

Pc engine do not start flames in this topic . We've been having a very good conversation so far . Do not flame it

 

[PC-Engine]

Pc engine do not start flames in this topic . We've been having a very good conversation so far . Do not flame it

Just getting the facts out for those who said I was wrong.

 

[Ty]

Prob , iread every post on in here though , after awhile its hard to remember everything .

Haha, no problem. You guys got a crazy busy job.

Is this settled yet ? It sounds like he is saying if they put out a 25 gb disc and then a year later up it to 30 gig disc then anyone with the older drives wont work ? Am i reading that right

To be honest I don't understand that bit as well. He mentions from the consumer POV but then also mentions from the manufacturing POV. Your guess is as good as mine! Maybe it's these engineers that are hoping to simply hit 30GB per layer as the first established target.

I was wrong because the thread got locked?

What are you talking about? You weren't wrong because "the thread got locked" - whatever that means. You were wrong because you didn't understand the article as everyone who responded to you in that thread pointed out.

Try again.

I was right actually, but it was referring to RW BD.

And no one is talking about RW here.

Why do you think I mentioned $50 DL BRDs??? I'm not aware of any $50 BRDs that are ROMs.

And no one is talking about RWs here. I'm not aware of BR RW that are hybrid DVD/BRD.

What's with the immature emoticons again?

pc engine do not start flames in this topic . We've been having a very good conversation so far . Do not flame it

Thank you for this. Every response except for a couple of them has been nice and open with no hint of bravado. I think we should try to keep it that way.