PS3 sales

[Carl B]

Finally, and this more directed at XB than anyone though others may answer if they wish, does it not worry you at all, despite your reasoning given earlier about the wrong sorts of stores having stock on shelves, that PS3 is not sold out everywhere? Surely there can't be that many people not looking in these big stores such as Walmart to mean they're not selling simply because people are looking in the wrong places. It seems to me that when you have what you'd assume to be several million people interested in a PS3, the law of averages would mean they'd still go quite quickly, yet some here are reporting them sitting on the shelves not for hours but for days

Paul why would I be 'worried?' My life goes on whether or not PS3's are selling at a breakneck pace.

Do I think it's a negative for Sony? Well, compared to the alternative, of course it is... but it simply is what it is now. My emphasis in these posts is to try and highlight that I don't think the rapid sales slowdown is tied to any disillusionment in the public eye with the PS3 so much as a rapid die-down of hype from the way everything went down at launch. And of course this does have a material effect... could mean that even were Sony able to ship 6 million consoles by March 31st, they may not sell that many. My advice to them would be to take some of their predicted US shipments and set them aside to increase the European allotment. As for Japan, that seems to be going in the typical 'launch momentum' fashion, so I think it's only the US that's going to have an anomalous launch.

I would also defer to Patsu's reasoning above; when everything's said and done, let's just compare sales numbers to one another as the months go by.

 

[Paul_G]

Actual sales number across multiple months.

Most importantly, data can be skewed if you just look at individual cases (even 20 cases). You need large enough dataset to make some sense out of it.

Some have pointed out that PS3 *may* have a longer "shelf life", but it does not mean that the unit sales per month was lower than 360s during launch (i.e., something like latency <> bandwidth).

Another way to look at this is stock out does not equal huge demand. If the overall demand is not as high, but the supply is even lower, you can still have lot's of stock out (Thanks to one's vgchart numbers). Naturally, huge demand does not mean stock out.

I'm not saying one or the other just yet, why can't we wait for the official numbers ?

Would you not expect Sony to sell everything they could make in the first few months, i.e. whether they launch with a sparse 200K, or with a huge 2 Million, they should sell out within days? I understand what you're saying but it just seems odd to hear so many stories, anecdotal or otherwise.

Also, won't sales figures tell you little of how they are actually doing? To truely dispel these suggestions of consoles sitting on shelves for days, we'd also need shipped numbers too wouldn't we?

 

[Carl B]

Also, won't sales figures tell you little of how they are actually doing? To truely dispel these suggestions of consoles sitting on shelves for days, we'd also need shipped numbers too wouldn't we?

They'll tell us how PS3 is doing compared to its competition at the equivelent point in time. Does anything else matter? No one's arguing that PS3's aren't sitting on shelves; they are. But now... what is it that you're saying should be of concern in that regard? If by March 31st 2007 Sony has sold more PS3's than Microsoft sold 360's at the end of March 2006, you won't see me starting a thread saying "Do the sales trends favor Sony?" Because it would be meaningless. But that's the same sort of single-planar logic we're applying to the PS3 sales figures here when we say, 'should we be worried?'

The first thing to establish is, are sales slowing down? The answer seems to be: yes. Now... more importantly is why is that happening. That's something I've sought to answer, and IMO the reasons are not reasons that will hang negatively over the console in the longrun.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Would you not expect Sony to sell everything they could make in the first few months, i.e. whether they launch with a sparse 200K, or with a huge 2 Million, they should sell out within days? I understand what you're saying but it just seems odd to hear so many stories, anecdotal or otherwise.

Ya know, every time I walk into a chemist, there's a shelf-load of Gillette razor blades sitting there. I guess Gillette aren't selling any blades at all. Similarly PS2's are always available. I guess Sony sell none of those either...

Also, won't sales figures tell you little of how they are actually doing? To truely dispel these suggestions of consoles sitting on shelves for days, we'd also need shipped numbers too wouldn't we?

That would be a bonus to determine how much demand < shipped, but not necessary to see if PS3 is selling okay or not. Shipped covers released to distribution channels (left factory) and not arrived at destination, so this early on you might even have 10% discrepency as a boat-load of PS3s is heading out. Thus shipped versus sold isn't a real indicator either. Shipped will always be higher than sold, and unless you know the ins and outs of the distribution network, you can't derive from that how much stock sits on shelves not being bought.

The presence of stock on shelves is more indicative of a healthy resupply channel balanced to demand, and with no crazy buying frenzy where people buy something just because others are buying it without knowing whether they want it or not. As I said, earlier in this thread I believe, if we expect the US market to lap up 3 million PS3s in the beginning without question, that's only 1% of the population. That means only 1% of customers to a store are interested in buying a PS3 just now. The moment PS3's are put on a shelf, you can't expect all that 1% to be in the store waiting to get their hands on it. Not every one of those is a die-hard shopper who's desperate to get one ASAP. A good many want one, and will buy when they see it, rather than go hunting for one. Now there is a market phenomenum that people buy something because it's popular, and the moment you put one on the shelf people buy it just to be sure of getting one. Those are the items that stay on shelves for all of 2 minutes. Obviously Sony would have loved that, but at this price-point it'd be quite a reach to expect PS3 to manage that.

 

[mckmas8808]

Kokatu is reporting average ebay prices down to $724; if demand was super high, even with high availability, you would expect prices to be driven higher. At least I would.

What's the average price that the Wii on ebay is going for?

 

[Swervedriver]

Give Sony a good year before you write them off as being in serious trouble. 360 didn't do so well when it was first released, now it's doing pretty good, especially in North America. PS3 hasn't even launched in Europe yet...

 

[Paul_G]

Ya know, every time I walk into a chemist, there's a shelf-load of Gillette razor blades sitting there. I guess Gillette aren't selling any blades at all. Similarly PS2's are always available. I guess Sony sell none of those either...

But these blades aren't much anticipated, they didn't have people queuing around the block for them, nor is there precedent for them remaining scarce on the shelf this long after launch. No one is saying Sony is selling no PS3s either, but what some are saying is that this console that was reduced from 4m to 2m to 1m units, which should be flying off the shelf as soon as they're put there, is taking longer to shift than anticipated.

That would be a bonus to determine how much demand < shipped, but not necessary to see if PS3 is selling okay or not. Shipped covers released to distribution channels (left factory) and not arrived at destination, so this early on you might even have 10% discrepency as a boat-load of PS3s is heading out. Thus shipped versus sold isn't a real indicator either. Shipped will always be higher than sold, and unless you know the ins and outs of the distribution network, you can't derive from that how much stock sits on shelves not being bought.

The presence of stock on shelves is more indicative of a healthy resupply channel balanced to demand, and with no crazy buying frenzy where people buy something just because others are buying it without knowing whether they want it or not. As I said, earlier in this thread I believe, if we expect the US market to lap up 3 million PS3s in the beginning without question, that's only 1% of the population. That means only 1% of customers to a store are interested in buying a PS3 just now. The moment PS3's are put on a shelf, you can't expect all that 1% to be in the store waiting to get their hands on it. Not every one of those is a die-hard shopper who's desperate to get one ASAP. A good many want one, and will buy when they see it, rather than go hunting for one. Now there is a market phenomenum that people buy something because it's popular, and the moment you put one on the shelf people buy it just to be sure of getting one. Those are the items that stay on shelves for all of 2 minutes. Obviously Sony would have loved that, but at this price-point it'd be quite a reach to expect PS3 to manage that.

Understood about shipped vs. sold. Still, taken in isolation, don't sales numbers mean very little? If this months NPD figures say Sony sold 400K, but, for instance, they shipped 500K, you may think "that's a good result" assuming as you say, some are in the channel etc. However if they shipped 1M, that's not so good. If you don't have that number, you can't guage just how well it's really doing.

Also I consider your logic flawed in terms of how many interested people there are. For a start, your example assumes 1 store per person. In reality, a person will visit many stores. Also, you make it sound like finding a PS3 is a random encounter, people who want one will not wait to stumble upon on one, they will actively look for it until they find it, so a store such as Walmart may see, for example, 1,000 people come in per day of which 10 would be interested in a PS3 in your example. I would contend that some shoppers will be exclusively looking for a PS3 and there will be 20 or even 50 people interested, not 10. If this were true, PS3 would be selling those 20 odd consoles we're hearing about, even if you were right, and it's 1%, in 2-3 days they should be sold, but there are reports that they're not.

I agree with Patsu, i'd like to see what happens and will wait for the official numbers, it just seems a little odd compared to a historic launch. Maybe XB is right and it's an anomoly

 

[Shifty Geezer]

However if they shipped 1M, that's not so good. If you don't have that number, you can't guage just how well it's really doing.

That example wouldn't mean that PS3 was selling badly. It would mean that Sony's estimates were wrong. Good sales are relative to the market. If a launch console historically sells 4 million in it's first year, and XB360 and Wii sell 4 million in their first year, and PS3 sells 4 million in it's first year despite Sony making 12 million units, it's still sold well compared to normal. That's why XBD is talking about comparing to XB360, as that's the only current-gen reference point. If PS3 is selling better than XB360, it's showing better growth at this point in its lifecycle than XB360, which is a good sign. And vice versa.

In reality, a person will visit many stores. Also, you make it sound like finding a PS3 is a random encounter, people who want one will not wait to stumble upon on one, they will actively look for it until they find it...

There's different types of shoppers, and I'd say that the type of shopper you describe might already have been catered for. London-Boy can probably provide us with the official names, but if I coin my own names, to begin with you'll have super-buyers. These are people who desperately want the product, and camp out overnight or buy on eBay for silly prices. Then you have keen-buyers, who actively go searching, ring up stores, learn when one becomes available to buy. Then you have interested-buyers who are keeping their eye open and when they see one available, they'll buy it, but they don't mind waiting a few weeks for one to show up if that's what it takes.

In the same way not everyone who wants a launch-period PS3 will camp outside a store for it, not everyone who wants a launch PS3 will actively go searching for one. I think the people who have gone actively searching for a PS3 have been catered for by now, and I don't find the idea of people waiting until they see one to buy it particularly surprising. Perhaps you yourself are a keen-shopper? Whereas I'm definitely not!

 

[Paul_G]

That example wouldn't mean that PS3 was selling badly. It would mean that Sony's estimates were wrong. Good sales are relative to the market. If a launch console historically sells 4 million in it's first year, and XB360 and Wii sell 4 million in their first year, and PS3 sells 4 million in it's first year despite Sony making 12 million units, it's still sold well compared to normal. That's why XBD is talking about comparing to XB360, as that's the only current-gen reference point. If PS3 is selling better than XB360, it's showing better growth at this point in its lifecycle than XB360, which is a good sign. And vice versa.

Understood, but that's only on the basis of there being 4m buyers, and we're not talking a year, we're talking the period shortly a consoles launch when historically, sales numbers are supply limited. Sony should, this early in the game sell what they make surely, and all i was saying with my 1m shipped comment, assuming Sony weren't estimating wrong, is that the difference implies stock sitting around.

There's different types of shoppers, and I'd say that the type of shopper you describe might already have been catered for. London-Boy can probably provide us with the official names, but if I coin my own names, to begin with you'll have super-buyers. These are people who desperately want the product, and camp out overnight or buy on eBay for silly prices. Then you have keen-buyers, who actively go searching, ring up stores, learn when one becomes available to buy. Then you have interested-buyers who are keeping their eye open and when they see one available, they'll buy it, but they don't mind waiting a few weeks for one to show up if that's what it takes.

In the same way not everyone who wants a launch-period PS3 will camp outside a store for it, not everyone who wants a launch PS3 will actively go searching for one. I think the people who have gone actively searching for a PS3 have been catered for by now, and I don't find the idea of people waiting until they see one to buy it particularly surprising. Perhaps you yourself are a keen-shopper? Whereas I'm definitely not!

Interesting...I probably am that as well, I did queue for the xbox, so maybe i'm on the road to recovery

In all seriousness you're right, and i'm sure all these buyers are floating around but then how does one explain the sales of the 360 last year, or the Wii this year? The Wii is slightly different in that the target audience is a little different, but there is some overlap, and that overlap is often the super-buyers and keen-buyers, so if there are that many shopping for a Wii, why not the PS3?

 

[pcchen]

Couldn't it only measure forces 3G or greater?

No, it's +/-3G. It can't measure outside the range.
According to the datasheet, the sensitivity is 330mV/g, with 10% accuracy. So it probably can't make good position estimation. However, a game can still require a constant acceleration over a few seconds and making small moves not sufficient for a proper game action.

 

[mrcorbo]

You know after thinking about it for a while, I don't really see this as that big of a deal either. If PS3 can keep its numbers within a reasonable distance of the 360's numbers in NA they can possibly negate the advantage by outselling it in Europe and Japan. This is not out of the realm of possibility.

Now having said that, I think MS are in a good position to improve the sales of the 360 vs PS3 in NA by adressing two of the factors that may be keeping sales of both consoles down: Price and Games Selection. They seem to be in a better position that Sony to address both these issues as of now.

This is really still too close to call in terms of an overall "winner". But as long as the 360 is a viable console for developers and continues to push out top content throughout its lifetime I (as a 360 owner) will be satisfied.

 

[Fox5]

I'd say PS3 sales may be suffering from a few things, including...

Competition - The Xbox brand is disproportionally strong in America compared to its actual sales. Despite not doing anywhere near as well as playstation, it is considered a true playstation competitor.
The Wii is also off to an unexpectedly strong start.

Price - $600 is a lot of money for a console with no games. Most of the die hard Playstation owners I know personally are waiting for their favorite games to come out. The type of people who jump on the latest hardware just because it's the latest don't see enough difference over an Xbox 360 (which they already spent a ton of money on) to warrant buying a Playstation 3 as well.

Launch Weariness - High ebay prices, lack of games, and rampant console failure....yep, these happen with every console launch, and people may be at the point where they don't want to deal with it anymore. I expect future console launches to go more like the Wii, shipping out weaker hardware just so production can be ramped up quickly. (speaking of which, can anyone find a wiimote?)

 

[Shifty Geezer]

...but then how does one explain the sales of the 360 last year, or the Wii this year? The Wii is slightly different in that the target audience is a little different, but there is some overlap, and that overlap is often the super-buyers and keen-buyers, so if there are that many shopping for a Wii, why not the PS3?

Price! I'd say that'd account for a lot of it. If PS3's were $300, they'd probably be flying off the shelves before reaching them. Plus the PS3 is a bit feeble at the moment and anyone keeping in the know, which is probably a fair proportion of early adopters/innovators, might be waiting for it to get sorted out. By which I mean a multitasking OS, some stronger software diversity, better 3rd party titles, etc.

PS3's certainly isn't seeing the demand of other devices, but neither does it look to be in trouble either at this point. Everything Sony are making is being sold it seems, and it'll need a few months of ramping production before any disinterest is shown in stores stockpiling and cutting back orders.

 

[mckmas8808]

PS3's certainly isn't seeing the demand of other devices, but neither does it look to be in trouble either at this point. Everything Sony are making is being sold it seems, and it'll need a few months of ramping production before any disinterest is shown in stores stockpiling and cutting back orders.

Exactly. People are acting like the difference between all 20 PS3s selling in one hour is hugely different that them selling in 2 days. Either way Sony can't ship enough to consumers right now.

 

[Tap In]

Exactly. People are acting like the difference between all 20 PS3s selling in one hour is hugely different that them selling in 2 days. Either way Sony can't ship enough to consumers right now.

no doubt, only thing noting is that it appears that many of the frantic, "gotta have one now" buyers have gotten theirs which is why they have no lines for them. IMO

the problem now is only how many can they sell at that price?

I'm guessing the can install about 7-9 million units at the $500-$600price. After that sales will slow considerably to the point that a price reduction will be necessary. I'm predicting Holiday 2007 for that.

 

[mckmas8808]

no doubt, only thing noting is that it appears that many of the frantic, "gotta have one now" buyers have gotten theirs which is why they have no lines for them. IMO

the problem now is only how many can they sell at that price?
.

I can promise you that all the "gotta have a PS3" crowd hasn't gotten one yet. They are not THAT easy to find. You are listening to the forums a little bit too much. But I agree with you that 7-9 million will probably be the best Sony could do (less than 10 million but more than 5 million) at their current price.

 

[Kryton]

I can promise you that all the "gotta have a PS3" crowd hasn't gotten one yet. They are not THAT easy to find. You are listening to the forums a little bit too much. But I agree with you that 7-9 million will probably be the best Sony could do (less than 10 million but more than 5 million) at their current price.

An overlooked point too.. the 360 is selling globally, the PS3 is in NA/Japan only. These sales figure comparisons miss that?

 

[mckmas8808]

An overlooked point too.. the 360 is selling globally, the PS3 is in NA/Japan only. These sales figure comparisons miss that?

No. Not from me. When I agree that Sony can do up to 7-9 million sold at $499-$599, I mean easily. After those sales the product stops selling itself and the "games" and Sony's marketing has to step in BIG TIME.

Just like the PSP (yes it's a super great device) could have sold at least 8 million with its name and specs alone. After some point the games, price, and marketing have to kick in and make sense to people to make them spend their money on it.

So far the gaming lineup I see for the PS3 equals a system that should cost $399 for the 20 GB and $499 for the 60 GB version. Europe will buy a few million PS3s regardless, but at some point they will also want a better comparitive price for what they are getting relative to the competition.

 

[patsu]

Would you not expect Sony to sell everything they could make in the first few months, i.e. whether they launch with a sparse 200K, or with a huge 2 Million, they should sell out within days? I understand what you're saying but it just seems odd to hear so many stories, anecdotal or otherwise.

Also, won't sales figures tell you little of how they are actually doing? To truely dispel these suggestions of consoles sitting on shelves for days, we'd also need shipped numbers too wouldn't we?

Paul_G, PS3 does not exactly follow traditional marketing practices (for better or worse). Whether Sony will sell their inventory within days or not, the market will decide. I have no expectation. It's Sony's problem.... not mine

If we are talking about demand, then the sales numbers can give us a reference. We look at supply (too) if it is constrainted. I was making the assumption that Sony can deliver more than they can sell (like everyone else).

EDIT:

Give Sony a good year before you write them off as being in serious trouble. 360 didn't do so well when it was first released, now it's doing pretty good, especially in North America. PS3 hasn't even launched in Europe yet...

That's correct. As I mentioned in an earlier post, 1-2 years of data would be good. In real life, the industry folks have to cope with incomplete information in the mean time.

Regardless of what people may think of my anecdotal PS3 sighting, in no-way, was my post in the other thread, to be construed as a knock against the PS3, my only intention was to inform people in my area, Chicago, that if they wanted a PS3 they could be found at the specific Circuit City location.

I posted in one of the threads for this purpose too. Some blogs like to make sensational articles out of forum posts to attract traffic. I run a website too so I can understand their urge. Not saying everything's not true, but really we should wait for the real numbers.

EDIT: I'm still seeing complains from people who cannot find a PS3. This may also mean that there are room for improvement in the allocation. But as more shipment arrives, this problem should go away.

 

[Tap In]

well I don't think anyone is saying that sony will fail with PS3. if they are, they are silly.

all that some are saying is that $599 is way to high for some people (evidently) as 6 weeks after a shortage and less than a million in NA, you would think they could not stay in stock. By looking here and at online stores and in my local B&M's (Phoenix AZ) and other forums.... they are not flying off the shelf as a must have item.

$599 is not near an impulse price (neither is $399 but it's a bit more palatable). Sony needs to get there... soon. The Pre-Christmas "must have" group seems to have simmered down somewhat. i DO wonder how much of an effect the mainstream press has had on mind share as well There have been a lot of stories in the US about PS3 not being worth it "yet".

Software wil drive the sales as well (obviously)