PS3 sales

Maybe (from the same site there is a piece on it), but can we apply the same reasoning utilsing eBay for the Wii demand indicator?

 

But this does not explain why certain people over-react. The Kotaku article does have a controversial title.

Even with anecdotal evidences, what do we want to conclude meaningfully at this point ? In the first place, at US$599, is it supposed to have the same demand as other console ?

It does not mean Sony spent lot's of marketing $$ to achieve the awareness. The only ones I have seen are the 1111 Japanese commercial and 2-3 Playstation websites. Most media would report the launch date and the PS3 queue on their own (without Sony spending a single cent). BUT this is just awareness. There are other forms of marketing that can help to sustain PS3's demand (Well, they can still do them now).

This compared to MS's Ring of Light, Origen, and other viral marketing programs. What about the MTV and the 100 lucky (early) Xbox 360 owners. All these were done to generate the awareness and the *desire* to buy an Xbox 360. They are obviously driven by MS.

On the supply side, PS3 has limited availability in the first month. Some potential buyers may have bought another console, or are turned off by the buying experiences.

1.5M was for worldwide. I think in NA, the numbers were 900K shipped/sold (some were probably in transit).

In your post, you mentioned the 360 drought lasts until late fall/early spring. I'm commenting on the early spring part (because I was looking for one then, but decided to pass due to all the overheating reports). At this point, if Sony is delivering sufficient quantity to NA retail, then they should have no problem sustaining and stock piling from now until early spring.

Sony has already sold more PS3 than 360s in Japan, after price adjustments from both sides. In US, I think their fumbling will cost them something. Don't know what yet. As for Wii, how does the historic trend in traditional consoles apply to Wii today ?

The answer must also take into account Wii targets a broader base ? And does Wii selling out have anything to do with PS3 selling out (or not) ? (i.e. Assuming Wii is not launched this year, would PS3 still sell out or not ?).

Yes, these are good, possible explanations but my point is let's wait until after the official number before we arrive at any conclusion.

Why not ? Like I said, we have not really concluded anything yet just by these individual sightings.

Sure, but it doesn't tell me anything I don't already know. Some people will pass... at US$599.99 and especially in Walmart. It doesn't tell us how many people will get to the systems once they found out about them. It also doesn't tell us how well/badly the online sales are doing (They seem fine).

Regardless of whether your opinion is popular or not...

Again, price is a (partial) function of value. You can either argue that the price is not right or the perceived value is not high enough. All I'm saying is Sony marketing has failed to address the issue.

And most importantly, let's wait for the numbers.

 

*gasp*

god, help us!

 

I called the local Targets, BestBuys, Walmarts, and GameStops on the 28th and they were all out of PS3s. Frys had some, but they were bundle only. I finally found a Toys R Us with some returns and picked one up. Someone said BestBuy would have a minimum of 25 per store by weekend so it will be interesting to see how those sell.

 

Kokatu is reporting average ebay prices down to $724; if demand was super high, even with high availability, you would expect prices to be driven higher. At least I would.

 

If the product can be easily found, why would anyone want to pay a premium for it, by buying it on Ebay?

The law of supply and demand drives the prices on Ebay. If prices drop, the reason for that drop can be a lower demand, yes, or it can be that there is enough supply, on the whole market and/or on the Ebay market only, to drive the prices down.

 

Skyring I want to highlight the part in bold, because I want to make sure something's clear.

I answered the question, and exactly as I wanted to. I'm not here trying to create reality by the way I 'spin' the PS3 sales numbers, I'm simply trying to explain reality... at least as I see it. I agree, right now there's no pressing reason for a random individual to own a PS3. In fact, there's not even a good reason for a 'hardcore' Playstation fan to own one!

But there's a certain momentum at launch that carries itself forward for a bit... just the excitement of a new product, and the desire to own something you are "into." There's no more or less reason to own a PS3 at launch than there was a 360, but what I'm saying is that the 360 had a 'consistent' launch, whereas the PS3's has been, IMO, derailed both in execution and in coverage by the conflicting perceptions vs realities on the ground. Right now, I think the 'hype' levels in PS3 are low... but the console is a great one. People will come in again slowly, and for better reasons, as the games and feature set expands.

I *do* have a problem though with the notion that PS3 should be 'selling better.' I mean, I could arbitrarily say the same about the 360, and what would it mean? Not much. Because it's all in relation to arbitrary benchmarks. They sell like they sell. For what it's worth, Sony has sold a lot more consoles than some people thought they'd manage to this year, and less than some others thought they'd manage.

To me it's all a wash. It's been a bad launch for Sony by most measures, and it'll take a bit of time to shake this stall and get things on track, both in the channel and public perception-wise. Ultimately, a headline of "PS3's on Shelves" does convey a sort of what's wrong thought process (which is in part my problem with the even more exaggerated presentation by sites like Kotaku). But nothing inherent in the console is wrong. This rollercoster ride has resulted in a very short launch honeymoon for Sony; from here on out they'll sell on their offerings and not on hype. I maintain though that they would have gotten a lot more 'hype' sales if not for the initial, massive, distorting effect of the profiteers.

 

True, and good point. Looking at the chart prices have been sub $1000 for a month now, which seems to predate a lot of local availability to a degree. We will see though. I think the brand is strong, but ultimately any platform lives by the software. The PS3 has Motorstorm and Heavenly Sword in 3 months, and that will probably tell us more than anything... at least until fall.

 

Actually, those games could be the greatest thing since sliced bread but both being new IPs, it's hard to imagine them moving consoles or selling in big numbers.

Hope I'm wrong though.

 

Gears of War says hello

 

It seems the supply bottleneck for the PS3 was already worked out as the Sony president suggested in the last month. The next thing to observe is how it will look like with the sales of the Xbox 360 in the launch period in 2005 - 2006.

http://www.vgcharts.org/usamonthly.php?date=38657&console=
Xbox 360
Nov 2005 - 362,000
Dec 2005 - 312,500
Jan 2006 - 277,000
Feb 2006 - 178,000
Mar 2006 - 213,000

http://www.vgcharts.org/usamonthly.php?date=39022&console=
PS3
Nov 2006 - 226,000

 

Couldn't it only measure forces 3G or greater?

 

A sad thing about the PS3 hype is that the majority of people buying the unit before Christmas were attempting to sell it on eBay. Around 400 people lined up at the Best Buy I work at. People got there 5 days prior to the release. Talking to nearly all of them I found out that the vast majority were buying it to sell on eBay. Very few were actually keeping it.

Several times before Christmas we had a PS3 returned and the customer said they couldn't sell it on eBay (no bids or setting too high of a reserve). The supply of PS3s on eBay outweighed the actual demand for them. It also took from 20 minutes to an hour for a customer to purchase the returned (and unopened) PS3. Also, in that time, the number of 360s sold was from ~8 to ~20. And oddly enough the majority of 360s were NOT the core system.

Another shocking trend was the Nintendo Wii. Once again people lined up 5 days prior to launch and sold out instantly. Two more shipments of Wiis came into the store (I think a total of ~50) were also sold out before Christmas.

Now that Christmas has passed, most customers inquire about Wii shipments over the PS3. We received 26 PS3s and were placed on a table at the front of the store Sunday and after 2 business days 23 still remain.

The huge downfall to the PS3 is the lack of true backwards compatibility for the majority of their games. The PS3 will require an online update to correct this problem however that doesn't change the fact that not everyone has a high speed Internet connection or even the Internet for that matter. However, the users which the PS3 targets are Internet gamers and die hard Playstation fans.

All in all, the PS3 had a strong launch day but I would expect to see sales of the unit slip under both the Wii and the 360 in the future.

Plus who wouldn't want to use the Wii Remote on their PC or Mac?
Wii Remote For PC
Wii Remote For Mac

 

Someone pass me that large bag with the bricks please.

Scenario #1: PS3 sold out evewywhere.
"Sony production is poo! Doom! Launch a catastrophe!"
Scenario #1b: PS3 turns into its own branch of the Ebay economy.
"Attachment rates garbage! Doom! Launch a catastrophe!"
Scenario #2: PS3 not sould out everywhere.
"PS3s discover dust particles as collectibles! Doom! Launch a catastrophe!"

When you contrast ... this with things that happen elsewhere, like f.e. when a certain external device is purported to positively exceed all expectations while actually, as in numerical data, selling in half a year far below, and I quote, first week's "rounding error quantities", and than picture that, another certain stand-alone device sells every other kid into the wall but nobody even bothers to posts a shred of poop about it, even our most vigorously hard-trying-to-be-fair-and-balanced members should at some point be expected to realize that the spin is not only alive, but off medication and leash. Srsly.

IOW what in Ra's name would be an acceptable development for Sony and the PS3 to undergo that would make the weekly lambasting cease? Anyone here believe that there exists a way to please and appease the Kotaku?

edit:
Dave Baumann mentioned in another thread that all of this is naturally and incidentally just happening, as a reflection of the balance of things in the real world. Heh. In that spirit I request (or maybe wish) that every console is covered as is the Wii (hint: sparsely, only when there's something to report). Badabum.

 

It sounds like the Sony critics need to decide whether Sony is making too few or too many PS3s Thanks for the enlightening post.

 

Having read what i missed since last night, it seems there are some who call evidence put forward both by members of this board and Kokatu anecdotal at best, and others who say the sheer volume of admittedly anecdotal evidence means this is now something more than that. I'm curious...

to the group saying it is still simple anecdotal evidence, what more would you need to change your mind?

To those who think it is now more than that, what made it more than anecdotal evidence? Would you say having seen it yourself makes a big difference? Living in the UK, i have no chance to see them sitting on the shelves and guage things for myself, yet i will say seeing so many people say similar things means i am putting some stock in this now.

I really am curious as to why some people believe anecdotal evidence is no evidence at all, and others are now putting some stock in it.

Finally, and this more directed at XB than anyone though others may answer if they wish, does it not worry you at all, despite your reasoning given earlier about the wrong sorts of stores having stock on shelves, that PS3 is not sold out everywhere? Surely there can't be that many people not looking in these big stores such as Walmart to mean they're not selling simply because people are looking in the wrong places. It seems to me that when you have what you'd assume to be several million people interested in a PS3, the law of averages would mean they'd still go quite quickly, yet some here are reporting them sitting on the shelves not for hours but for days

 

Huh? Since when has console been doomed if it didn't offer good enough backwards compatibility?

I think there's another console in the market at the moment which offers minimum backwards compatibility and its still doing pretty well.

In this world we live in, anyone who can afford a PS3, or Xbox360, and even Wii, should afford an internet connection, and I'm pretty sure 99% of the users do have one available.

 

Why online update?
I take any bets that Games will ship with any update necessary to run them. Just look at PSP.
But well, you are right, those people that buy a PS3 without Internet, that dont want to play PS3 Games, and just want to use it for playing PS2 Games are doomed

 

PS3 on the shelves OMG.

Sony is obviously doing a much better job than Microsoft did last year.

 

Actual sales number across multiple months.

Most importantly, data can be skewed if you just look at individual cases (even 20 cases). You need large enough dataset to make some sense out of it.

Some have pointed out that PS3 *may* have a longer "shelf life", but it does not mean that the unit sales per month was lower than 360s during launch (i.e., something like latency <> bandwidth).

Another way to look at this is stock out does not equal huge demand. If the overall demand is not as high, but the supply is even lower, you can still have lot's of stock out (Thanks to one's vgchart numbers). Naturally, huge demand does not mean stock out.

I'm not saying one or the other just yet, why can't we wait for the official numbers ?