If their numbers are right though, it sounds like the total installed base will be significantly smaller than what it is now.
Those are North America numbers, so they are estimating 68M units in the NA alone, which is only marginally lower in the NA sales last gen, if at all. e.g. Stats for North America in the last go around saw combined American sales of 71M (PS2 - 43M (America), June 2006; Xbox - 16M (North America), Dec 2005; GCN 12M (America), June 2006).
3M is pretty marginal difference. Of course world wide sales are much higher at ~151M (PS2 106M; Xbox 24M; GCN 21M).
There could be a reason for projected lower sales in NA by 2011. First is length of time. The PS3 is going to have Fall 2006 and 2007-2010 to generate those sales, a little over 4 years. Whereas looking at the current figures Sony has sold 43M units in the US in about 6 years. To compare by length, as of 1 January 2005 Sony had sold 33M units in NA in the same 4+ years. So the estimates are projecting
almost identical sales for the PS3 as the PS2 in a similar time span.
Another factor is price. People can do inflation estimation all they want, but at the end of the day electronics tend to get cheaper over time. Nintendo has released 4 home consoles at the $199 price tag over a 15 year span. The Xbox 360 Core is an expensive console at $299; the Premium is darn right expensive at $399. The PS2 20GB is a step beyond that and at $599 the 60GB PS2 is nearing 3D0 and other infamous console territory. Just compare the console makers last gen to this one (last gen price followed by this gen price):
Sony:
$299 [vs]
$499/$599 (+ $200-300)
Microsoft:
$299 [vs]
$299/
$399 (+ $0-$100)
Nintendo:
$199 [vs]
$199 ??
I think Sony/MS would be very pleased to see identical sales numbers with the price increases they both have introduced this gen. It would be a significant accomplishment to maintain similar sales while significantly increasing product retail cost (up to 100%
)
Other factors are price drops. As mentioned in the report, and discussed here, the PS2 benefited from very timely price drops that greatly spurred on adoption. Can Sony keep up this pace? Some say yes, others say no. The analyst thinks Sony will only cut $50 in 2007.
Xbox 3 release will also be a significant factor. Whereas the PS2 was the first out and had the longest shelf life it is hard to think the Xbox 3 will launch after the PS4, and in most likely scenarios would most likely come out a year earlier. The Xbox 3 may even be out in 2010. Technology moves fast and the typical 5 year gen time seems to hold pretty strongly in general. Another factor could be Nintendo--maybe they ride Wii for 4 years. So while Sony may be aiming for 6 years, Nintendo may feel that Wii, with its affordable design and consumer cost, can cut short to 4 and introduce a new console then.
Anyhow, if we were comparing Summer 2011 projected unit sales (which would be comparable to our stats right now in 2006 for last gen sales) the analysists numbers would have shown growth, so I don't see any significant decrease in his estimations.
For those interested there is more info on the report at
FiringSquad. He actually does explain his perspective and various market influences. A lot of stuff to argue with in there
