PS2 outselling XBox 360

wco81 said:
If X360 successor came out in 2010, that would indicate that the X360 lost out in the market share battle and that they were still losing money.

Because if the X360 was still selling well in 2010, MS should be able to rake in the bucks with a cost-reduced design.
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Not necessarily. Sales can begin to significantly slide after year 5, and there is no guarantee that

a.) N6 would not release early due to Wii being primarily a GCN upgrade
b.) Sony moving to a 4 year cycle if MS eats into their market share

By going 6 years they also run the risk of co-launching the same year as Sony if Sony runs a 5 year course before PS4.

On the other hand if MS released in 2010 with a solid piece of hardware they get yet another year (or more) lead on Sony if Sony goes 5-6 years. Sony could put Sony in a difficult position where they have to decide how long of a lead they give MS. 18+ months could be detrimental.

Of course they could go the milking route and assume Sony will go 5-6 years and still be able to come out a year early in 2011 and get those nice cheap sales. A lot may depend on

a. How long it takes developers to begin really hitting the wall on design with the consoles
b. How new technologies and process node development are going and are projecting over the lifespan of the device
c. Sales of current consoles and games

Anyhow, too many assumptions to arrive at the conclusion that a 2010 launch means MS has "lost" and is losing money. I don't think they are going to win market share (they don't WW it seems either) but their goal is to make money. If money is the issue I would actually expect a 2011 launch for the reason you note: the 360 will be very cheap to make in 2010/11 and will have a lot of software. A new console launch is very expensive and guaranteed lost.

But we will see. All conjecture at this point. I have to believe that 27M in the US alone for MS would be considered "good". That is 11M more in the US than last time around (plus additional sales after 2010 unlike the Xbox that has pretty much ceased production). With those sort of numbers MS could get close to doubling their install base this generation which would have to be seen as a win for MS in most perspectives.
 
Another factor is price. People can do inflation estimation all they want, but at the end of the day electronics tend to get cheaper over time. Nintendo has released 4 home consoles at the $199 price tag over a 15 year span. The Xbox 360 Core is an expensive console at $299; the Premium is darn right expensive at $399. The PS2 20GB is a step beyond that and at $599 the 60GB PS2 is nearing 3D0 and other infamous console territory. Just compare the console makers last gen to this one (last gen price followed by this gen price):

Sony: $299 [vs] $499/$599 (+ $200-300)
Microsoft: $299 [vs] $299/$399 (+ $0-$100)
Nintendo: $199 [vs] $199 ??
Click to expand...

this is only valid in north america (dont know the launchprice in japan, but surely more then 299us$)

launchprice in europe was 500euro and a bit. this is 6years ago already
europe was as a matter of fact subisdising the low ps2 of the USA for many years
 
Acert93 said:
...
Click to expand...

Not to mention that MS could easily have two consoles on the market, with a $99 X360 and a $4-500 X3 just as Sony did with PSOne + PS2, as the X360 will probably be cheap enough to manufacture at that time thanks to MS owning all rights for the hardware.
 
Bump...here's the NPD stats for the month of August:

"..the PlayStation 2, which saw a rise of just three percent. "

"During the month, around 205,000 Xbox 360s were sold, a slip of one percent compared to July. So far in 2006, the console has sold some 2.4 million units, according to NPD."

And you would've thought that with August decent software that the hardware (X360) would've sold more?
 
Highest sales for August have been in 2002 by the PS2: 450K. The average sales for any console are around 150-300K, and the original Xbox's best August sales is about 216K. It's actually one of the slowest months every year, but noone was really bothered about it previously.

So we can conclude that people don't really buy too many consoles in August, no matter the software. And I wouldn't consider DR or Madden system sellers anyway.
 
I cant see a dramatic cut in prices this holiday but it is always a possibility.

For the 360s cost and library its sales are respectable its averaging about approx 200 - 220 thous. consoles a month in the summer. Thats pretty decent sales for the summer months.

In 2001 Sony sold about 190 thous. consoles a month in Q2 (on average). Its extremely hard to compare sells of a console with a monstrous library and userbase and the plus of having a much lower price.
 
Mythos said:
Bump...here's the NPD stats for the month of August:

"..the PlayStation 2, which saw a rise of just three percent. "

"During the month, around 205,000 Xbox 360s were sold, a slip of one percent compared to July. So far in 2006, the console has sold some 2.4 million units, according to NPD."

And you would've thought that with August decent software that the hardware (X360) would've sold more?
Click to expand...
As Dave mentions in another thread, NPD data is more useful in indicating trends. The fact that the 360, at it's current price, is not seeing a sales dip yet is in itself promising. The PS2's sales numbers were so good that it confuses the issue. Basically, we have success on one hand: PS2-like sales numbers, and failure on the other: all other sales. I believe this to be too simple.

Instead, we need to look at what happens once the hardcore market is saturated--we saw that at the 2 million mark, based on my own estimates (primarily based on when sales typically fell off for all consoles except the PS2). The 360 passed that mark and didn't see a fall off. Next, we look at the sales of the original Xbox, which hit 2.7 million by this point. If, after hitting this mark we see a fall-off, then that would be cause for concern, since it implies that the 360 is trending towards Xbox-like numbers.
 
FWIW, Saints Row was only out for 2 days as part of this month's calculations.

Also, i found it odd that PS2 Madden sold around 1 million copies whereas the 30 version sold 1/2 that. Does anyone else think its kinda odd that a platform with such an installed base advantage would only sell 2x the amount of a benchmark title like that?
 
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expletive said:
Does anyone else think its kinda odd that a platform with such an installed base advantage would only sell 2x the amount of a benchmark title like that?
Click to expand...

Not really.

How many Maddens has PS2 already seen? I don't think most people buy them every year. The changes are marginal at best.

That said, Madden on PS2 will probably continue sell for much longer.
 
Sis said:
Next, we look at the sales of the original Xbox, which hit 2.7 million by this point. If, after hitting this mark we see a fall-off, then that would be cause for concern, since it implies that the 360 is trending towards Xbox-like numbers.
Click to expand...

Remebering that XBOX fell off almost entirely in early 2002 until the price was reduced by $100.
 
expletive said:
Also, i found it odd that PS2 Madden sold around 1 million copies whereas the 360 version sold 1/2 that. Does anyone else think its kinda odd that a platform with such an installed base advantage would only sell 2x the amount of a benchmark title like that?
Click to expand...

yep 360 owners are buying games which is more important than how many consoles are sold IMO. How many millions just bought a PS2 to play 1-2 games and use it as a 2nd DVD player? tons.

I'm thinking people who make the games will notice that and is one reason why 360 is/will be getting so much more support than last gen.
 
expletive said:
FWIW, Saints Row was only out for 2 days as part of this month's calculations.

Also, i found it odd that PS2 Madden sold around 1 million copies whereas the 30 version sold 1/2 that. Does anyone else think its kinda odd that a platform with such an installed base advantage would only sell 2x the amount of a benchmark title like that?
Click to expand...

Apart from what was mentioned earlier, that many will already own a previous version of Madden, you also have to remember that there are simply a lot more titles (budget or no) for the PS2 already out there. Thousands. The 360 afaik still is under 200. The number of perceived to be 'must have' titles on the 360 platform are much smaller and therefore will be bought by a larger percentage of the gaming population. Finally, and very unfortunately, you'll also have to add a percentage of illegal copies to the mix, though I've heard that in the U.S. modding a PS2 isn't quite as popular as it is in, say, the E.U.
 
The funny thing is when xbox sales surpassed ps2 sales the npd group numbers was very precise :)
 
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NPD must be pretty accurate.

Even Nintendo uses their sales data.

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=13755

Despite the 360's momentum lately, Deutsche Bank analyst Jeetil Patel is concerned by the console's "sluggish" sell-through in August. "According to NPD, Xbox 360 sell-through came in at 205K in August-06, its third lowest monthly sell-through since launch. We are concerned that the Xbox 360 continues to significantly underperform the PS2 which was consistently selling in excess of 300K units per month in 2001. With gamers apparently waiting for a PS3 or Wii, potential launch disappointments will only prolong the industry transition," explained Patel.
Click to expand...
 
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