PS2 outselling XBox 360

[Dave Baumann]

In the context of the discussion of relating NPD sales to overall sales (which is what this conversation is about), yes it is a big deal. NPD data shouldn't be used to give an accurate figure for overall sales of the region it covers; externally it can be used to give trends (be that seasonal or static relative figures).

 

[avaya]

I'm consistently amazed that some analysts were expecting the 360 to match PS2's intial run-out. 360 isn't even in the same ball park, PS2 was stupidly hyped, was cheaper and rode on the back of a console that at that point had sold some 90mn worldwide. To cap that off PS2 was still going like the clapper's just post-launch with a title selection that defined "meh".

 

[ZiFF]

In the context of the discussion of relating NPD sales to overall sales (which is what this conversation is about), yes it is a big deal. NPD data shouldn't be used to give an accurate figure for overall sales of the region it covers; externally it can be used to give trends (be that seasonal or static relative figures).

I don't buy it. Have to call BS on that claim.

Shipment numbers tell that NPD is overall very accurate.

 

[Mythos]

I do understand the seasonal thing with console sell through, however why in one month when there are a few demand games and the other month more- would you not have more consoles sold?

 

[Dave Baumann]

I don't buy it. Have to call BS on that claim.

Shipment numbers tell that NPD is overall very accurate.

You read the report that details how the NPD data is gathered then?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I already posted about NPD. Must be another thread. According to that Macromedia report, NPD reckon they capture about 75% of the market, and with estimates cover 85%. That would place the margin of error at between 15-25%. In the case of consoles, I imagine the larger stores that are captured by NPD represent pretty much entirety of console sales. EB, Amazon, Best Buy, etc. are all there. Is there a major store chain that's not appearing in NPD's numbers somehow? A UK equivalent would be if NPD has Amazon and GAME but doesn't have Play. If there isn't such a major retailer missing, unless a significant proportion of gamers buy their console goodies from minor independent companies, NPD numbers can be taken as uniformly equal but under-rated by say 20%. Thus you can add 20% to all figures which still leaves relative comparisons between sales as the same. That isn't true if the NPD capture group has changed over time. eg. If in 2001 NPD didn't capture Amazon, and Amazon had 50,000 sales of PS2, a 190,000 PS2 sold in August figure would be under the real sales figure. I think it's safe to take the NPD figures as fairly uniform from 2000. I presume the later additions to the capture group were newer companies taking a part of the sales from the older companies, rather than being 20% of the market that NPD didn't count before their addition. Certainly from 2002 the capture group has remain unchanged, but that's too late to consider early hardware comparisons!

 

[Tap In]

.... Is there a major store chain that's not appearing in NPD's numbers somehow?...

Wal-Mart iirc

they're pretty big

 

[Shifty Geezer]

They're included as estimates.

 

[fearsomepirate]

I already posted about NPD. Must be another thread. According to that Macromedia report, NPD reckon they capture about 75% of the market, and with estimates cover 85%. That would place the margin of error at between 15-25%.

The margin of error would be significangtly smaller than that. When you assume your sample size is basically infinitely small compared to your sample space, you can approximate the margin of error for a 99% confidence level by 1.29/sqrt. So you can get your margin of error under 3% just by taking about 2000 samples, assuming they're totally random.

So to make a long story short, NPD's numbers are good with a very high probability. In other words, the odds of that remaining 15-25% of the market radically changing the picture are very small.

 

[Sis]

Remebering that XBOX fell off almost entirely in early 2002 until the price was reduced by $100.

I believe that falloff was after it hit 2 million, which I had mentioned the 360 already passing with no visible downward trend.

 

[Dave Baumann]

I already posted about NPD. Must be another thread. According to that Macromedia report, NPD reckon they capture about 75% of the market, and with estimates cover 85%. That would place the margin of error at between 15-25%.

No, that actually places a 25% non-capture, with 10% of that having margin for error as its estimated. Ergo, using the reports to give total sales is not accurate and gives rise to these totally stupid circular arguments that you constantly get in here saying "Look, NPD sales they've only sold 2.4M, how can they have sold 5M?"

 

[ZiFF]

Ergo, using the reports to give total sales is not accurate and gives rise to these totally stupid circular arguments that you constantly get in here saying "Look, NPD sales they've only sold 2.4M, how can they have sold 5M?"

What? If they have shipped 3.3M to NA and NPD tells that they have sold 2.4M in USA..

You are saying that's all wrong? NPD takes broad enough sample to calculate the overall sales with a very small error margin.

 

[scooby_dooby]

What? If they have shipped 3.3M to NA and NPD tells that they have sold 2.4M in USA..

You are saying that's all wrong?

It's pretty obvious what he's saying, how hard is to understand? NPD numbers are not accurate for gauging total sales, bottom line.

 

[Dave Baumann]

What? If they have shipped 3.3M to NA and NPD tells that they have sold 2.4M in USA..

Good lord! NPD data has captured (in sum of their monthly data) 2.4M of sales, but NPD data accurately captures only 75% of the retail chain, 25% is not captured and some of it is estimated, ergo the NPD data does not equal a totalled some of units sold for the region(s) it covers.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Actually, I pointed it out first in this thread, but memories are short...

Now that it has been mentioned, I've compared NDP PS2 sales statistics with Sony shipment numbers. Total consoles shipped to Noth America are 43 million, which includes boxes sitting on shelves; and it also includes Canada, which is said to be about 7-8% of US sales.

So, we know that according to NDP, US sales are 34.3 million; if you add 7%, then you have 36.7 against 43 million. So I think that NDP's data accounts for more like 80-85% of the US market, at least regarding PS2 sales.

 

[ZiFF]

NPD numbers are not accurate for gauging total sales, bottom line.

They are very accurate.

Discussing overall Xbox 360 sales, Wedbush Morgan noted: "Through August, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.4 million units, and sales in August were at the low end of our 200,000 – 300,000 unit estimate. The Xbox 360 is now readily available and we expect Microsoft to sell another 200,000 – 300,000 hardware units in September and October, with a lift to 750,000 – 1.2 million units during the holidays when a strong lineup of Xbox 360 games is anticipated."

Have fun in.. denial.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Have fun in.. denial.

Apparently the most basic of facts is beyond your ability to comprehend.

Look at Laa Yosh's post, Sony has shipped 43million, yet NPD only shows 37. How much simpler could it be for you to understand?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Good lord! NPD data has captured (in sum of their monthly data) 2.4M of sales, but NPD data accurately captures only 75% of the retail chain, 25% is not captured and some of it is estimated, ergo the NPD data does not equal a totalled some of units sold for the region(s) it covers.

So you only need add 25% onto the NPD numbers to get real numbers, in a worst case scenario. Realistically the actual amount NPD are out from real numbers is probably 15% give or take a little. They estimate two major retailers in their figures and the margin for error there could affect that percentage up or down, but not by a lot unless WalMart's sells are totally different to the rest of the market. And it could be less than 15% if the 15% of uncovered retail provides a smaller than 15% of sales for a console or game, which seems quite likely.

Thus if NPD says 100,00 consoles are sold, it's likely 115,000 in reality. 1 million is more like 1.15 million. It's not accurate, but it's a good sort of approximation. You're not looking at NPD saying 10 million sold and the reality's 15 million! And if NPD say Console A sold 200,000 in June and Console B sold 175,000, you can be sure that they sold the same relative amounts. There's no chance Console B actually outsold Console A. The only this can't be true is if the 15% not captured are specialists with a disproportionate sell-through of certains brands. eg. If Nintendo releae a Nintendo Store that isn't captured in NPDs figures, you can expect Nintendo products to sell more highly than the 15% expected from non-captured sales.

"Look, NPD sales they've only sold 2.4M, how can they have sold 5M?"

I'm not quite sure what this is supposed to be arguing. That it's possible for 5 million units to be sold, but NPD only report 2.4 million? You think that the 25% not captured can be responsible for over half of the sales, when that 25% includes the small-fry stores? Or do you think when NPD estimate WalMart's figures, they're out by a factor of 1000% and WalMart can sell two and a half million with NPD guessing they only sell a couple hundred thousand? Or does that 15% include another massive chain or three with huge market presence, which unlike WalMart NPD decided not to estimate?

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Look at Laa Yosh's post, Sony has shipped 43million, yet NPD only shows 37.

Just to make it clear: NDP shows 34.3 million units for the US. I've upped it to 37 by assuming that Canadian sales are an additional 7% to US numbers. That's because Sony's 43 million is for the entire North American continent.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I think Shifty is making the most sense in this thread by a mile.