Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[bitsandbytes]

LOL! No, he is saying he doesn't know what's in Orbis. He is using the made up Orbis number (18) as a reference, because he DOES know Durango's number.

Got it. Read it completely wrong.

 

[Ruskie]

I was using the rumor of a 1.8TF GPU in Orbis, which at about 750MHZ comes to 18 CUs

I'll also speculate that both MS and Sony will pull a Nintendo this round and not talk about the hardware specifics at all. It'll be all about the capabilities and actual games, with nary a mention of RAMs and cores and gigahertz.

Wondering what can you run with 1.8TF GPU...Like Carmack said, you up the resolution and frame rate and not much is left. PCs came such a long way that I think if there is not solid jump in console space, the whole industry is going to collapse.

As far as I can tell, that doc was a vision doc, and not part of any product planning other than big picture ideals to aim for. I mean, seriously, that thing has 3 CPUs for a total of 13 cores, including a full xenon, and two GPUs (not including what looks to be at least another 3-4 cores for codecs and NUI) . Only an insane person would ever try to design something like that for real.

Yea...and the SOC chip at 50W. Wouldn't that be lovely console...

 

[bkilian]

Really?
The Yukon architecture from the leaked MS roadmap seems to quite different to whats in the dev kits (it had PPC cores for backcompat, 2 GPUs, and a choice between ARM or x86 cores).

As far as I can tell, that doc was a vision doc, and not part of any product planning other than big picture ideals to aim for. I mean, seriously, that thing has 3 CPUs for a total of 13 cores, including a full xenon, and two GPUs (not including what looks to be at least another 3-4 cores for codecs and NUI) . Only an insane person would ever try to design something like that for real.

 

[NRP]

I'll also speculate that both MS and Sony will pull a Nintendo this round and not talk about the hardware specifics at all. It'll be all about the capabilities and actual games, with nary a mention of RAMs and cores and gigahertz.

This is bkilian's way of saying "Lower your expectations, people!"

 

[anexanhume]

I was using the rumor of a 1.8TF GPU in Orbis, which at about 750MHZ comes to 18 CUs

I'll also speculate that both MS and Sony will pull a Nintendo this round and not talk about the hardware specifics at all. It'll be all about the capabilities and actual games, with nary a mention of RAMs and cores and gigahertz.

Sony had no problem talking about the hardware in the Vita. Why change course a year or so later?

 

[ERP]

Sony had no problem talking about the hardware in the Vita. Why change course a year or so later?

It's only really interesting to talk about hardware if you think you have an advantage that's easily marketable. Cell's peak flop numbers being the somewhat classic case.

Though I agree, Sony has usually discussed broad hardware numbers, it'll be interesting to see if they do the same thing this time.

 

[Ruskie]

This is bkilian's way of saying "Lower your expectations, people!"

If its something like dev kits are equipped with (HD6870-HD6950) than I think thats not too bad.

 

[bitsandbytes]

It's only really interesting to talk about hardware if you think you have an advantage that's easily marketable. Cell's peak flop numbers being the somewhat classic case.

Though I agree, Sony has usually discussed broad hardware numbers, it'll be interesting to see if they do the same thing this time.

Wasn't it the RSX where the numbers were slightly exaggerated? 1.8TF IIRC, when the reality is ~250GF?

 

[anexanhume]

It's only really interesting to talk about hardware if you think you have an advantage that's easily marketable. Cell's peak flop numbers being the somewhat classic case.

Though I agree, Sony has usually discussed broad hardware numbers, it'll be interesting to see if they do the same thing this time.

They'll both definitely think they have a hardware advantage over the Wii U.

 

[ERP]

They'll both definitely think they have a hardware advantage over the Wii U.

Sure but I'm not sure they'll consider it direct competition.
I know if I were in marketing, I'd message WiiU as a late entry into the PS3/360 generation, and just demonstrate a good leap in visuals over what that generation is doing.

You have to be careful with numbers, they're easily manipulated and can become very confusing, once you get away from my number is bigger than your number.

 

[anexanhume]

Wasn't it the RSX where the numbers were slightly exaggerated? 1.8TF IIRC, when the reality is ~250GF?

Here's MS's press release for poo and giggles:

With more than one teraflop of system-floating point performance, a three-core PowerPC-based CPU for the most-advanced artificial intelligence and physics processing, a custom ATI graphics processor, and more than 512 MB of memory for the ultimate in visual fidelity, the Xbox 360 hardware is a perfect blend of power, elegance and balance. Xbox 360 also features software so smart it remembers what gamers have achieved, continually evolving and enhancing the game experience. When the system is combined with unrivaled Microsoft® XNA™ software development tools, game creators can produce truly believable, thriving worlds.

There was a similar disclosure for the PS3:

Sony also laid out the technical specs of the device. The PlayStation 3 will feature the much-vaunted Cell processor, which will run at 3.2GHz, giving the whole system 2 teraflops of overall performance. It will sport 256MB XDR main RAM at 3.2GHz, and it will have 256MB of GDDR VRAM at 700MHz.
Sony also unveiled the PS3's graphics chip, the RSX "Reality Synthesizer," which is based on Nvidia technology. The GPU will be capable of 128bit pixel precision and 1080p resolution--some of the highest HD resolution around. The RSX also has 512MB of graphics render memory and is capable of 100 billion shader operations and 51 billion dot products per second. It also has more than 300 million transistors, larger than any processor commercially available today. It will be manufactured using the 90nm process, with eight layers of metal. The RSX is more powerful than two GeForce 6800 Ultra video cards, which would cost roughly $1,000 total if purchased today.

I don't know that we'll get that much info.

Seems like we should do a divide by 8 rule though. Thus, I'll be disappointed if the claim for next gen is anything below 16 TF.

 

[Ruskie]

Sure but I'm not sure they'll consider it direct competition.
I know if I were in marketing, I'd message WiiU as a late entry into the PS3/360 generation, and just demonstrate a good leap in visuals over what that generation is doing.

You have to be careful with numbers, they're easily manipulated and can become very confusing, once you get away from my number is bigger than your number.

History shows = more confusing, the better.

"...hardware so powerful that scientific calculator shows syntax error when mesuring flops* "

*FLOP count is multiplied by 10^16 for better marketing effect.

 

[function]

They'll both definitely think they have a hardware advantage over the Wii U.

Never fight a cripple - however much you win by you'll look bad.

It's especially bad if the cripple has charisma - all you'll do is draw attention to how much people people the cripple, while you're losing money on expensive protein shakes.

 

[bitsandbytes]

Here's MS's press release for poo and giggles:

There was a similar disclosure for the PS3:


I don't know that we'll get that much info.

Seems like we should do a divide by 8 rule though. Thus, I'll be disappointed if the claim for next gen is anything below 16 TF.

Amazing to read these today.

 

[NRP]

Amazing to read these today.

Yeah, but a whole lot of people drank that Kool Aid back then. And some still have it in their system.

 

[ERP]

We've had the cell sucks/rocks threads before, can we not have it again in the middle of this thread.
And I absolutely hate using platform exclusives to compare anything....
What exactly are you comparing them to?

 

[Sonic]

Anywho. I had always thought a cut down quad core Power7 with 4 SPE's per core would make for a decent next gen CPU. You get the advantages of the Power7 side, plus the SPE's come back to offer even more computational performance even with the advent of GPGPU. Actually. I guess I do have a question regarding CELL and its SPE's. Is GPGPU functionality provided by the graphics processor able to completely negate SPE's or are there some tasks that GPGPU will be weak in that SPE's excel at?

 

[AlNom]

From what little I've seen compute shaders are more often constrained by memory than ALU count.
If your bandwidth constrained doubling the CU count isn't going to help much, you could probably take the current PC figures as what NVidia/ATI believe are useful ALU to bandwidth ratios. Though both are likely optimized for current PC games.

hm... so 154GB/s for a fully operational Pitcairn.

What about ROP considerations (with MSAA)?

 

[ultragpu]

I was using the rumor of a 1.8TF GPU in Orbis, which at about 750MHZ comes to 18 CUs

I'll also speculate that both MS and Sony will pull a Nintendo this round and not talk about the hardware specifics at all. It'll be all about the capabilities and actual games, with nary a mention of RAMs and cores and gigahertz.

So, knowing the spec of Durango and you speculated 1.8TF for Orbis, what to make of this ? I think you're trying to say both consoles are around the 1.8-2TF mark in GPU power. This would somehow debunk the xbox3 being 2-3x of ps4 rumor since it's not likely we get a 3.6TF or 5.4TF gpu in any nextgen consoles.
Yeah I get the feeling there wont be too much of a difference in power between the two and neither sound like a beast of a any kind.
Prove me wrong.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Aren't there already Cell threads elsewhere?