Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[lefizz]

But Windows 8 rt must be quite lightweight considering the hardware it runs on. However i am more talking about the look n feel of the os, the back end would almost certainly be cut back since it's not required to do loads of the stuff a PC or even a windows tablet is expected to do.

Better put the services running would be limited and planned for in advance rather than like in a general OS where the user can keep installing Apps which keep adding background services and slowing the machine down

 

[ERP]

But Windows 8 rt must be quite lightweight considering the hardware it runs on. However i am more talking about the look n feel of the os, the back end would almost certainly be cut back since it's not required to do loads of the stuff a PC or even a windows tablet is expected to do.

Better put the services running would be limited and planned for in advance rather than like in a general OS where the user can keep installing Apps which keep adding background services and slowing the machine down

I'm not even talking about that level.
As soon as you have to deal with arbitrating hardware resources between apps, you go from almost no overhead to having to buffer/save and restore state.
Traditionally on consoles the App has had "exclusive" (not exactly but close enough) access to the GPU, i.e. you never have to worry about something else submitting a triangle or changing state.

 

[bitsandbytes]

Highly unlikely. I could see some clock rates changing, but even that would be unlikely. Any change at this point would likely result in a release slip of months at the minimum. Also folks (like Charlie) have been rumbling that the new console was originally one architecture and then changed to another one. That's simply not true, there has only been one architecture considered for the device from the start of the project. A few things did change, but not big changes. It's how I know Charlie is full of crap.

I don't like how he has no source/inside info on Orbis so therefore it will be 2014. Also from all the forums the next gen consoles have been discussed that I read, nobody has got confused about the code names.

 

[Proelite]

Highly unlikely. I could see some clock rates changing, but even that would be unlikely. Any change at this point would likely result in a release slip of months at the minimum. Also folks (like Charlie) have been rumbling that the new console was originally one architecture and then changed to another one. That's simply not true, there has only been one architecture considered for the device from the start of the project. A few things did change, but not big changes. It's how I know Charlie is full of crap.

Charlie likes to latch on to the whatever makes most sense to him in his delusional world and jumps off a cliff with it.

His articles on MS are comedy.

One more question, were there enough time after the evaluation of the first set of silicon from the fab to make changes to core count, ram count, bus type, etc?

 

[Ruskie]

I don't like how he has no source/inside info on Orbis so therefore it will be 2014. Also from all the forums the next gen consoles have been discussed that I read, nobody has got confused about the code names.

Of course no body was confused, he was just lurking around and noted that codenames appear to be legit so he took liberty to post it on his own site to "clear the confusion" while indirectly saying his "sources" confirmed it. He is full of crap, that much is clear.

His article about PS4 screams "idiot".

 

[MrFox]

I'm not even talking about that level.
As soon as you have to deal with arbitrating hardware resources between apps, you go from almost no overhead to having to buffer/save and restore state.
Traditionally on consoles the App has had "exclusive" (not exactly but close enough) access to the GPU, i.e. you never have to worry about something else submitting a triangle or changing state.

What if the game would runs "native" on a thin OS, but windows8 is running through all abstractions, like a VM?
The game would have exclusive access to the hardware on request, and when you pop the menu, the game pauses and saves state to let windows use the GPU...

 

[Proelite]

Charlie does bring up an interesting point though. 32 nm SOI or 28nm bulk?

 

[Acert93]

It is time for my CYQ4'12 predictions: The, "Lower your exceptions... ok, good, now a little lower... no, I mean really low" Edition.

This edition will be looking at the recent Jaguar and AMD GPU rumors.

CPU
Reasonable, "We should not ask for too much" CPU: 8 x Jaguar with AVX.
Disappointed Edition: 1 x 4 Jaguar

GPU
Reasonable, "We should not ask for too much" GPU: 8xxx revision Pitcarn-class. 20 CUs (1280 stream processors), 80 TMUs, 32ROPs, in the 800-1000MHz range (TDP constrained).
Disappointed Edition: 7xxx derived, neutered edition: 18 CUs, 50 TMUs, 8 ROPs, 750MHz.

Memory
Reasonable, "We should not ask for too much" Memory: High bandwidth 80MB full read/write memory pool and 8GB of main system memory // or 4GB of GDDR5 (10 year console, etc).
Disappointed Edition: 64MB of Xenos style eDRAM (frame buffer only writable by ROPs) and 4GB of slow system memory // or 2GB of GDDR5. Oh and the OS is going to take 500MB and suck up 1 CPU core. All the time.

Price
Reasonable, "We should not ask for too much" Price: $299. There has to be a tradeoff to the cheaper components, right? Silicon footprint is probably going down a lot and the longer generation has allowed technology to play out with lower risks. WiiU is $299-$349 and the PS3 is $199 and 360 4GB infrequently $149. $349 with a good pack in game seems about top end for the above hardware.
Disappointed Edition: $399--and more if you want a HDD of any legitimate size. Supply-and-Demand and people will be lining up for these things, period. Watch the slew of $199 "on contract" deals come flying around, too ($20/mo). Toss in online fees going up (hey, but we are going to throw in more crap you don't want on a gaming console--and by paying we will give you access to stuff like Netflix and Hulu which are free on set top boxes) and AAA games going to $70 and "budget" games coming in at $50.

Marker Solidarity and User Friendliness
Reasonable, "We should not ask for too much" A standard platform: Yeah, things like motion controls, cameras, controllers, hardware configurations, etc will all be standard at launch, every unit, for the first couple years. You can play any game with the unit you buy. The unit will have a snappy interface that always works and updates seamlessly.
Disappointed Edition: You HDD is too small, you don't have a camera--and if you buy one no good games will use it in a good way, you lack 2x magic wands, and your OS is 5 minutes old so please wait 50 minutes while we update. Oh, and the unit is locked down so tight instead of being a media hub it will inform you of all sorts of violations of the DRM because you tried to play you movie on two different players--you need to pay $10 for that and it is keyed to this unit and expires in 30 days. Which doesn't matter because the dashboard is so slow it will expire before you could even navigate to it so who cares.

 

[JasonLD]

As much as I wish MS and Sony launches their next generation consoles at $299, I don't think it would happen. I think both would go for $399 basic and $499 premium.

 

[Proelite]

$299 would be a steal for the power you'll get with these consoles.

 

[bitsandbytes]

$299 would be a steal for the power you'll get with these consoles.

Does that mean you're in the camp of reasonable in Acert's above spec list? Or do you think even higher?

 

[Proelite]

Does that mean you're in the camp of reasonable in Acert's above spec list? Or do you think even higher?

The specs in Acert93 are freaking good.

I'll be extremely happy with 18-20 gcn2 cus in either system.

Acert93's disappointed edition is like everyone else's reasonable edition, and Bkilian's "better than expected" edition.

EDIT: To be more specific, the above pertains only to the gpus.

 

[bitsandbytes]

The specs in Acert93 are freaking good.

I'll be extremely happy with 18-20 gcn2 cus in either system.

Acert93's disappointed edition is like everyone else's reasonable edition, and Bkilian's "better than expected" edition.

I agree! but you would be surprised how many people are expecting high end PC level performance @1080P/60FPS minimum! for £300

 

[Proelite]

I agree! but you would be surprised how many people are expecting high end PC level performance @1080P/60FPS minimum! for £300

I didn't say anything about (not) expecting high end PC level performance.

 

[AlNom]

Charlie does bring up an interesting point though. 32 nm SOI or 28nm bulk?

Depends on who/what you're talking about. :>

Disappointed Edition

Man, you're pessimistic.

8ROPs is so 2002. :3

 

[Blazkowicz]

Does anyone think these next-gen consoles will feature small high speed SSDs?

I don't think so. SSD actually need to be big to be fast, let's say 64GB which isn't very cheap, need a controller with decent firmware so the SSD doesn't brick itself when you sneeze at it. Or if there are small and fast SSD, they are the expensive kind such as Intel 20GB for caching purpose with SLC flash.

I think you would rather want the biggest 2.5" single platter hard drive you can afford, 500GB should be doable maybe 640GB. Then mandatory installs are not an issue (with content copied sequentially from the optical disc), every console can do DLC, and you have lavish space for cacheing.
You can still have a crappy flash for OS and maybe savegames that still works when the HDD fails.

 

[bitsandbytes]

I didn't say anything about (not) expecting high end PC level performance.

Really? Do you mean the closed box nature of consoles will narrow the gap or do you mean the GPU and/or CPU will have high end PC performance?

Honestly, I think Acerts reasonable spec is about the best I expect. Maybe a few customisations like DSPs to aid performance.

 

[bkilian]

Charlie likes to latch on to the whatever makes most sense to him in his delusional world and jumps off a cliff with it.

His articles on MS are comedy.

One more question, were there enough time after the evaluation of the first set of silicon from the fab to make changes to core count, ram count, bus type, etc?

Aah, you're assuming there's _been_ a "first set of silicon" from the fab. Aah, youth, so idealistic.

Oh, and since this is the "predict" thread: I predict, with no actual information other than the rumors that have been posted on this site, that the PS4 will have an 18 CU GPU. I could "predict" what the MS console would be, but since I actually know, that would be cheating.

 

[XpiderMX]

Aah, you're assuming there's _been_ a "first set of silicon" from the fab. Aah, youth, so idealistic.

Oh, and since this is the "predict" thread: I predict, with no actual information other than the rumors that have been posted on this site, that the PS4 will have an 18 CU GPU. I could "predict" what the MS console would be, but since I actually know, that would be cheating.

Post it on Pastebin

 

[bitsandbytes]

But is it more or less than 18CU though? This is the most important question!