Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[tunafish]

I meant when did you hear or read that? First time i'm reading such assertion...

You are reading the sentence wrong. It's: " I hope not as back when PS3 and 360 were being designed, 256 bit busses were still only available in the high end GPU's but now you get them in mid range cards."

 

[Gubbi]

Show them all the games running on PC at 1080p and then see how many of those change there mind...

Few, because the GPU needed cost more than the entire console they already own.

When people come round and see games running on my monitor the first thing they always comment on in how clear and crisp everything looks.

We're at the end of console generation where the technological disparity between PCs and current console hardware is at its greatest and yet the big title sales on console crush PC sales. When the new generation of consoles launch PC gaming will continue its downward trend.

You mentioned COD as a poster child for low res. The developers of COD prioritized temporal resolution over spatial resolution. - An excellent choice; The fast run-n-gun gameplay wouldn't be nearly as enjoyable at 30 fps.

Cheers

 

[Acert93]

Temporal resolution? But, but, but, I can go Tri-SLI and run 4k resolution with all settings on high on my eyefinity at 120Hz with furmark in the background!

 

[Megadrive1988]

I seriously hope all the talk of 4K resolution is nonesense, for the sake of framerates..

 

[idsn6]

45GHz (in total)

That is not how reality works.

 

[Ruskie]

Some interesting posts from GAF.

Aegies is ex IGN editor, now works for Polygon. And the other member already implied he had some info about Durango couple months ago.

The GPU is the only thing that seems like more than developers have hinted at to me over the last year. It could be a smart move though, if the smaller process and wafer size reduces heat and power requirements.

Sidenote: any rumor of current specs that lists anything other than x86 is extremely suspect. Anything mentioning non-AMD parts is also suspect. I'm sure they're going back and forth like crazy over cost right now, and that might mean the memory numbers won't be finalized til just before announcement. Which I've also heard is coming sooner than most people think, though that tidbit was based on a totally off the cuff exchange.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=42701113&postcount=671

Last I heard the 8 cores were running at 1.6ghz. There was another Durango event recently and if I remember correctly developers were encouraged to go for 1080p@30fps or 720p@60fps. Take from that what you will. From the previous Durango event earlier in the year the target release date was Q4 2013 with the possibility of a slip to Q1 2014. That info is pretty old now so I will probably ask for an update on that front.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=42702820&postcount=703

This was an answer to this over the top wet dream rumor where 8GB and 8 cores where already known fact, but GPU was obviously made up.

Those 8 cores running at 1.6ghz could be Opteron server CPUs that SuperMicro chassis comes with.

The quote about 1080p/30fps and 720p/60fps is interesting. I guess MS wants to encourage to set the standard like this gen with 720p and AA thing. It would be weird if one game is 1280x720 another is 1600x900 and the third one is 1080p. So, go for 1080p with 30fps or 720p with 60fps.

 

[almighty]

When the new generation of consoles launch PC gaming will continue its downward trend.

You need to check your sources my friend, PC gaming is growing every year, not shrinking.

 

[COPS N RAPPERS]

I can see both will use 88xx+ level GPU in their final hardware

Well,even 9000TF also means 1+TF lol

I'm hoping for the push to the 88xx series. according to the spreadsheet they have pluses and negatives where there should be. the series will have a greater chance of giving consoles a better library of games at 1080p. (It makes sense in theory at least.)

I seriously hope all the talk of 4K resolution is nonesense, for the sake of framerates..

4k is of the least for the next consoles, a resolution like that wouldn't be used for gaming, and would exceed the memory requirements in these consoles for media....and for what? 1080p media is at a sweet spot as is. 4k resolution actually wouldn't show improvements in home entertainment centers, that kind of leap would show in Imax theaters. as it requires that much space to view.

If consoles are lucky they'll be able to run the next batch of the upcoming generation at 1080p. (not this gen but the next one.) It's going to be even harder because the visuals being rendered could be significant this time around, the stakes of a possible 1080p experience is actually what people should be worried over.

depending on what is planed on being rendered; it can take a 16x generational leap for it to be pulled off higher than 720p.

 

[Rangers]

We don't really know when the dev kits where sent. Probably beginning of a year, and I wouldn't put much thought on series of GPU since I doubt they will go with 6 series base (VLIW4/5).

BTW HD6870 and HD6950 easily outperform Cape Verde, even with older architecture. They are higher end cards with more ROPs, more stream processors, more texture units and bigger bus width. There is considerable difference in games like BF3, Metro 2033 and Batman going anywhere from 10 to 20fps.

I'm not sure it's quite so clear cut. The transistor count is similar between Barts (1.7B) and Cape Verde (1.5B). And there are a few modern games where I've seen 7770 beat 6870 (I've seen a Crysis 2 bench where it did). You're right of course in most PC games 6870 is easily faster of course. The trick to me is wondering how it'll work in a console where software is targeted to hardware not vice versa.

6950 another story.

 

[tunafish]

I don't think they would have early kits that are stronger than the planned system. Sounds risky to me.

The G5 CPUs in the early kits for 360 were significantly faster than the final hardware, especially before people (and compilers) learned to adapt to the peculiarities of the Xenon. If you had things like a lot of small functions where the stack constantly triggered RAW hazards, having your code run 20 times slower on the final hardware was not rare. Given how late the final hardware was delivered, this caused quite a lot of grief.

So, while it's something MS has done before, it's maybe something they don't want to do again? OFC, crippling hardware is very easy nowadays, so even if it has 8 xeon cores, they might only be chosen fe. for a specific cache amount and run at 1.5GHz.

The total cost of dev kits is low enough that basically no-one cares how much they end up costing.

 

[McHuj]

Just came across this:





Would something like that be any beneficial for gaming consoles?

No. I worked for a competitor to these guys for several years. IMO, until someone cracks the problem of distributed memory and makes these things easy to program, these processors will continue to reappear every couple of years with the same claims and then same end results.

IMO, these types of processors lose out in power efficiency and performance when they're up against vector/SIMD processors running highly parallel applications. Then they lose out to high performance single thread processors in serial applications. So in a console it wouldn't have a space between the CPU and GPU. Even a DSP like Nintendo uses for audio would offer better performance/watt or /area than this type of processor.

 

[McHuj]

Some interesting posts from GAF.

There was another followup.

Early next year. It would be stupid to announce a new console while people could still return their Christmas presents. I never heard Keighley say anything about next-gen at this year's VGAs, but I can say unequivocally that publishers and developers are chomping at the bit to show next-gen products. So I expect lots of next-gen videos without platform information during the VGAs, because that's the best place to show them to the mainstream.

...

I've been told "big leap," but I mean, they're not super likely to undersell new platforms. Everybody is hoping new consoles reinvigorate excitement in the space. Industry people seem beyond annoyed that next-gen isn't here yet. I think they wanted it this christmas.

....

When publishers talk about next-gen, they're talking about the next Xbox and PS4. I think the Xbox successor will launch next year. Sony's release calendar is dead after June, and I can't remember the last time that happened. I just don't know how they can afford it.

My prediction has been a Jan/Feb pre-GDC announcement so I hope that's what happens and that he's implying that.

 

[XpiderMX]

From bgassasins on NeoGAF:

I'd say it's the other way around. Real generational leap on paper and less impressive in real world performance.

I don't like next gen if it is true...

 

[LXFBN]

What bg said simply isn't true, hardware today is much more efficient than 2005 hardware.

Wasn't there an interview from the EA need for speed guy where he said that DX11 was 300% more efficient than DX9?

 

[msia2k75]

You are reading the sentence wrong. It's: " I hope not as back when PS3 and 360 were being designed, 256 bit busses were still only available in the high end GPU's but now you get them in mid range cards."

Ah well thx...

 

[itsmydamnation]

What bg said simply isn't true, hardware today is much more efficient than 2005 hardware.

Wasn't there an interview from the EA need for speed guy where he said that DX11 was 300% more efficient than DX9?

that a rather meaningless statement and so what if it is. its missing the point. IMO the biggest improvements will come from more memory allowing artists to be more detailed. shaders will be at diminishing returns.

 

[Proelite]

From bgassasins on NeoGAF:
I don't like next gen if it is true...

The fact that BGAssassin has some sources has gotten to his head a little.

 

[goldenlight]

this neogaf as already discussed above from ex IGN now on Polygon
is interesting

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=42711433&postcount=764

When publishers talk about next-gen, they're talking about the next Xbox and PS4. I think the Xbox successor will launch next year. Sony's release calendar is dead after June, and I can't remember the last time that happened. I just don't know how they can afford it.

Remember when Gaikai or somebody said only 2 nextgen console
wii-u already out, then only PS4 and 720 is left

after that Gaikai bought up by sony
then they release PS3 slim
then they plan to reduce vita price next year (like still focusing on Vita for what ?)
also almost no news on PS4 at all

this seems like Sony can not afford PS4 and going into CLoud route ?

 

[goldenlight]

There was another followup.



My prediction has been a Jan/Feb pre-GDC announcement so I hope that's what happens and that he's implying that.

the most interesting are from Aegis ex ign (neogaf) :

I think the Xbox successor will launch next year. Sony's release calendar is dead after June, and I can't remember the last time that happened. I just don't know how they can afford it.

 

[bgassassin]

The fact that BGAssassin has some sources has gotten to his head a little.

What's that supposed to mean?

10x the hardware != 10x the visuals