Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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Would it be worthwhile to add a single Bulldozer style core to the system to combat Amdahls law? Actually would it even be practical to fit a completely different core to the system?
 
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If all this news is true, an ideal half gpu is thermally compatible with a console, and about 2TF
 
Shader power, fill rate....none of that will be the deciding factor any more.

The best console next generation will be the one that offers the highest tessellation performance, as a PC gamer I can't wait for the new consoles to release so we can finally see geometry pushed to the extremes.

If one of the next gens is noticeable weaker at tessellation then the other I expect that to be more obvious to the average person then a few missing shaders here and there that the current machines show.


Totally disagree -- and this falls clearly into the realm of diminishing returns. Even if one competitor can do 4x the tesselation at the same performance, if Console.A can make a 20k model look like 100k and Console.B with better tesselation 400k, by far the biggest visual jump is the 20k -> 100k leap.


Put another way, there is a big leap between a "circle" with 10 points being tesselated to 50 points. Moving from 50 to 200 points is not very easy to spot. e.g.


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So I completely disagree and all the tesselation videos I have seen where NV crushes AMD the reality is ramping back the AMD settings doesn't make a very big visual difference.


Now a 1TFLOPs vs. a 1.8TFLOPs GPU (assuming all the GPU guts scale similarly to flops), as rumored, literally means we could see games with HUGE IQ downgrades and important visual features completely removed. We have already seen between RSX and Xenos how relatively close GPUs can result in big differences, 80% could be the difference between Medium and High settings + better framerate in games. That is *huge*.


Tesselation, not so much.
 
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If all this news is true, an ideal half gpu is thermally compatible with a console, and about 2TF

wow, I hope a 8850 does make it to Microsoft's xbox 3 or Durango. i have to admit for months I've been pondering on what their solution would be to strong horse power and power consumption. those two just don't mix too well for a console, RROD is the prodigy of that.

This seems more like the optimum cure for the next xbox console, It's cheaper too. I was thinking about what Digital foundry had said a while back about Microsoft registering a scalable console patent. the only way that could possibly work well is if it uses THUNDERBOLT port technology, or something similar to externally expand graphics power with out voiding a warranty, and consume less internal overheating.

The next consoles should have added support though for the fastest connections to use PC hard drives.
 
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But ~3.0 tflops is not a "powerful" number? How many flops are needed? how many tflops can I have on a "gaming" PC today? 5? 6? :oops:

5+ TFLOPs isn't in a modern single board gaming PC today. Architectural differences aside (newer designs are more efficient and there are more to a GPU than shader units) this has been the recent march:

Fall'2008 -- 4850 2 TFLOPs, 4870 2.4 TFLOPs

Fall'2009 -- 5850 2.08 TFLOPs, 5870 2.72 TFLOPs (+ add, mul)

Winter '2010 -- 6950 2.25 TFLOPs, 6970 2.7 TFLOPs

Winter'2012 -- 7950 2.87 TFLOPsm 7970 3.05 TFLOPs

This is why a 1TFLOPs console is such a joke--that much compute power in a reasonably priced GPU was available in 2008. AMD has marched slowly as they have tried to reign in both die size and TDP.

It is hard to imagine (regardless of what AlStrong says!) that a console released in Fall'2013 cannot have a GPU that thoroughly outperforms GPUs from 2008 from a technical view point. The issue really comes down to how much waggle technology will absorb silicon budgets.
 
5+ TFLOPs isn't in a modern single board gaming PC today. Architectural differences aside (newer designs are more efficient and there are more to a GPU than shader units) this has been the recent march:

Fall'2008 -- 4850 2 TFLOPs, 4870 2.4 TFLOPs

Fall'2009 -- 5850 2.08 TFLOPs, 5870 2.72 TFLOPs (+ add, mul)

Winter '2010 -- 6950 2.25 TFLOPs, 6970 2.7 TFLOPs

Winter'2012 -- 7950 2.87 TFLOPsm 7970 3.05 TFLOPs

This is why a 1TFLOPs console is such a joke--that much compute power in a reasonably priced GPU was available in 2008. AMD has marched slowly as they have tried to reign in both die size and TDP.

It is hard to imagine (regardless of what AlStrong says!) that a console released in Fall'2013 cannot have a GPU that thoroughly outperforms GPUs from 2008 from a technical view point. The issue really comes down to how much waggle technology will absorb silicon budgets.

I'm not sure people paying $399 for a console would have considered the 4870x2 reasonably priced.
 
is a 7970 just a few percents faster than a 4870? (the number is 27%)
paperflops are the worthy successor to MIPS (Meaningless Indication of Processor Speed)

for the record a radeon 7750 is shit if you go against such figures but outperforms (or is the same than) a 4850.

Now a 1TFLOPs vs. a 1.8TFLOPs GPU (assuming all the GPU guts scale similarly to flops), as rumored, literally means we could see games with HUGE IQ downgrades and important visual features completely removed. We have already seen between RSX and Xenos how relatively close GPUs can result in big differences, 80% could be the difference between Medium and High settings + better framerate in games. That is *huge*.

those two console GPUs were close regarding paperflops but the Xenos walked over its competitor (granted it had a huge leg up)
 
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Xenos was an amazing design for its time.

I'm currently reading Dave Baumann's article 'ATI Xenos: Xbox 360 Graphics Demystified'

Now that we're nearing the end of 2012, can anyone shed more light on the unreleased R400, which was supposed to be the basis for Xenos?

And I'm looking forward to learning about AMD's GPU for Durango.
 
those two console GPUs were close regarding paperflops but the Xenos walked over its competitor (granted it had a huge leg up)

It wasn't just flops but they were in a similar ball park in texturing and fill rate as well. Of course Xenos had more advanced features and eDRAM as well as more memory. But I wouldn't say it "walked over its competitor" when most console games look pretty similar. The 360 typically looks better and has a more stable framerate and seemed an easier development path and fewer items in need of the same attention (having more bandwidth and memory has real benefits). But looking at developer white papers they are usually within a millisecond or two per frame on average. That may work out to 5-10% after optimizations (e.g. downgraded quality) but that is the same general ball park. (There are things RSX is faster than Xenos at, not to mention using the SPEs to shore things up). So I am not sure the parallel really fits. Going with fairly similar architectures and moving from 1.8TFLOPs+ GPU bits to 1TFLOP+ GPU bits is a huge drop off. Much more so than we saw this generation if all things a relatively even.
 
with what Microsoft did with the xbox 360 was not all that bad, what they should do this time around if it's going to be a staggering 7 to 8 year console, is give it more memory.

The ideal specs for the xbox 720 or Xbox 3 (whichever)

For a 7 to 8 year life cycle.

- 8870 or 50 (more power is always welcome just so long as the temperature is good.)
- 8gbs of GDDR 5 (developers are always in need of memory, this should no doubt help.)
- 500 gb HDD (upgradeable with PC HDDs)
- Blu-ray drive (high speed)
- 1080p 60 fps for xbox 360 games.
- 1080p native 30 fps for next gen games.
- (thunderbolt and USB 3.0 ports)
- Windows 8 and to run PC apps.

Primarily though they should focus on what they plan to do with their console than boasting about the spreadsheet. infarct they should already have good specs in check rather than us asking for it, and just keep it to themselves. that would be a more excellent marketing strategy over them showing off a piece of paper and have some body else try to best it like the last time.

though If the next console doesn't look up to expectations i can expect tons of more exhausting speculations to come. they should reflect a bit on how this next 7 years should be while they still got the time. put in as much functionality and purpose while it's still possible.

edit -also they should unveil their console slowly over the year rather than a quick holiday launch, they should enlighten us on some of their games, that builds up the hype better.
 
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