I'd say pretty close to zero. I'm guessing the performance of the final silicon is going to be around 6870-6950 or slightly faster, but with clearly lower power consumption. I think it's going to be 7850/8770/8850 or something like that. 200W GPU is not going to happen.
A "hardcore" console coming out at the end of 2013 for example, containing a GPU with the specs and/or performance of a HD 6870 or HD 6950 would be kind of "ridiculous", wouldn't it?
Just think about it:
Two years after the release of such a console for example, the GPU in it would already be around five years old
?
Is anyone really thinking that would be "next-gen" worthy?
Something like a HD 8970 or HD 9970 (or what ever they are going to be called) would probably be more appropriate for that at that time, wouldn't it
?
Also, just an example:
Is anyone here REALLY impressed by the visuals of the "Elemental Cinematic" demo video for example?
It's not necessarily THAT impressive looking, isn't it?
Now, if not even a GTX 680 appears to be able to manage full 1080p at 30 fps there
(
at least according to that SIGGRAPH 2012 presentation), then anything less than a GTX 680 for "next-gen" consoles would be kind of "ridiculous", wouldn't it
?
That's assuming you are expecting a really big leap from "next-gen" consoles of course
.