Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[kagemaru]

Seems like the Charlie Rumor is start report by some media...but why it become processor problem lol?

I wouldn't read too much into other sites reporting the same rumor. IMO more often than not, when multiple sites report a similar rumor, they are playing off of the original story and not the same source as they sometimes imply.

What I don't understand is a few months ago only alpha kits were supposed to be out, but now they are trying to mass produce final hardware? Am I missing something here?

 

[McHuj]

Seems like the Charlie Rumor is start report by some media...but why it become processor problem lol?

I think the article was really just for generating hits especially now that other blogs are picking it up. The console launches in September, there was a miracle and they fixed the issue. The console launches in late 2013, the fixed the issues and still managed to launch. Console launches in 2014, they couldn't fix the issues and had to delay. This article could "support" any potential outcome.

The one thing that does cause me to hesitate is that Pachter was indicating that MS may delay as well. Perhaps both share a source?

 

[McHuj]

I wouldn't read too much into other sites reporting the same rumor. IMO more often than not, when multiple sites report a similar rumor, they are playing off of the original story and not the same source as they sometimes imply.

What I don't understand is a few months ago only alpha kits were supposed to be out, but now they are trying to mass produce final hardware? Am I missing something here?

I think what he's saying is that they're trying to get ready for mass production by the end of 2012.

It basically a lengthy process: run a bunch, test the chips, measure the yields. If the yields are bad, tweak the process (maybe the design as well), and try again. That's around 2 months. There's a possibility that you might have to do that multiple times to get yields up to reasonable levels so that the production costs are reasonable.

Let's say you had to go through this iteration 3 times from today that's ~6 months (or March 2013.) Is that enough time to manufacture 5-10M chips and assemble the consoles for a launch in September 2013?

 

[Grall]

If you tweak the design it sounds unrealistic it'll be just 2 months. For starters, you'd need to verify your design changes first; that takes time.

 

[XpiderMX]

Any possibilities of a Full HSA chip?

 

[Gipsel]

Any possibilities of a Full HSA chip?

Define a "full HSA chip"!

But yes, it is probable that one can use HSA features in XBox720/PS4.

 

[DieH@rd]

Let's say you had to go through this iteration 3 times from today that's ~6 months (or March 2013.) Is that enough time to manufacture 5-10M chips and assemble the consoles for a launch in September 2013?

They will be extremely happy if they could produce 1mil working chips for 2013sept-dec sales, but that will happen is if stars align and enable them great yields.

 

[ERP]

They have things they can do, to make whatever the launch date they want is.
March would as I understand it be plenty of time if they have the necessary yields, If they can't produce the part in numbers for the launch but have a long term solution, they can defer launching in Europe and Japan.

 

[Rangers]

I dont see Microsoft ever launching anytime but Nov. Not September, not March, not anything but Nov. Heck, imo if they delay from 2013 then they will slip it to Nov 2014, not March in any case.

I'd bet money on Nov 2013.

they can defer launching in Europe and Japan.

Dont see this either. They were extremely supply constrained on 360 launch (shipped 1.5m worldwide 4th Q 2005), but launched it worldwide anyway. It doesn't hurt anything to be sold out (can probably argue it adds to hype actually).

 

[Gubbi]

I want a hard launch not a soft one, where demand completely outstrips supply. Last time was a disaster, there was four months worth of backlog here in Denmark.

A spring 2013 launch makes the most sense to me. That way the buzz from a new console doesn't hamper holiday sales of games for existing consoles and they might actually succeed at a reasonable hard world wide launch.

Cheers

 

[Grall]

Any possibilities of a Full HSA chip?

Health Savings Account chip...?

 

[Blazkowicz]

after a game of which is which, FSA or HSA (the name has changed) I've found out it's FSA. AMD has introduced a 'FSAIL' initialism recently covering a virtual instruction set

Spoiler

yes the name is that stupid, so much that you can read it as 'FAILS' as a honest mistake

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Dont see this either. They were extremely supply constrained on 360 launch (shipped 1.5m worldwide 4th Q 2005), but launched it worldwide anyway. It doesn't hurt anything to be sold out (can probably argue it adds to hype actually).

It costs you momentum and generates frustration in consumers who, worst case, might give up buying your hard-to-get device now and go get something else instead. Constrained supply is only good for eBayers, unless the console company is willing to launch at rare pricing. $800 each for the first 1 million units - that'd help their bank balance but probably generate a lot of ill feeling!

 

[TheWretched]

I am not so sure if it's that simple, though. Being "hard to get" can lead to a device becoming viral, whereas it might not have, if it had been in ample supply.

 

[upnorthsox]

You can't count on that though and to actually plan (and stifle) supply based on that kind of assumption is beyond risk taking.

 

[fehu]

with the wii it worked

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I am not so sure if it's that simple, though. Being "hard to get" can lead to a device becoming viral, whereas it might not have, if it had been in ample supply.

How can that theory be justified? The more you sell 1) the more money you make, 2) the larger the install base showing it off to their friends for word-of-mouth. the only way lack of availability of a product could improve demand is if people want to buy the thing just because it's rare. And if your product can't sell on it's values and needs the allure of rarity to sell it, then it'll never be a big business. Rarity is good for luxury items that sell at high value, but not good for mass consumer devices.

 

[XpiderMX]

Health Savings Account chip...?

Heterogeneous Systems Architecture

 

[AlNom]

Aren't we practically there already with the 360.

Of course, I'm not saying that it's a particularly speedy implementation wrt Xenos accessing CPU L2, but none-the-less... the basics existed.

 

[XpiderMX]

Aren't we practically there already with the 360.

Of course, I'm not saying that it's a particularly speedy implementation wrt Xenos accessing CPU L2, but none-the-less... the basics existed.

How good is Xenos as GPGPU?