Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[AlphaWolf]

Umm, no. He specifically said "We will build one of them", and he specifically said "the reason for that is because the world doesn’t have enough engineering talent for anybody to build three of them at one time. It takes the entire livelihood of a computer graphics company to build one of them". There is no reason to be obtuse when interpreting this statement. It is very obvious based on his statement that NVIDIA will build one next gen console, and it is very obvious that he thinks one computer graphics company would be spread too thin in trying to concurrently build three all new next gen consoles.

What he thinks isn't necessarily fact. The comment obviously doesn't affirm that any contract existed. So basically you've got an Nvidia execs gut feeling before the fact.

 

[ams]

To suggest that either side knows what the other side would use is sillier and just as insane.

So you believe that Microsoft and Sony execs are living in such a tight bubble that they have no idea of what GPU vendor their archrival will be using for their next gen console? And if they did use the same GPU vendor, they would have no idea about the general performance or features their archrival will have for their next gen console? Ok.

 

[ams]

What he thinks isn't necessarily fact. The comment obviously doesn't affirm that any contract existed. So basically you've got an Nvidia execs gut feeling before the fact.

I do not interpret his comments to be a "gut" feeling. When he says "We will build one of them", that is a pretty definitive statement coming from the CEO of the company.

 

[AlphaWolf]

So you believe that Microsoft and Sony execs are living in such a tight bubble that they have no idea of what GPU vendor their archrival will be using for their next gen console? And if they did use the same GPU vendor, they would have no idea about the general performance or features their archrival will have for their next gen console? Ok.

Who chose first? Do you really believe part of their criteria in choosing a GPU is not using the same vendor as their competition? That's ridiculous.

 

[ERP]

So you believe that Microsoft and Sony execs are living in such a tight bubble that they have no idea of what GPU vendor their archrival will be using for their next gen console? And if they did use the same GPU vendor, they would have no idea about the general performance or features their archrival will have for their next gen console? Ok.

They get the same leaks you see here and draw their own conclusions, until likely very late in the process.
There is no way a developer given early access to information will jepordize his relationship with a console manufacturer.
The GPU vendors are likely even more careful.
Even internally at Sony and MS specifics like the actual component suppliers will be considered very sensitive information and known by relatively few people.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I do not interpret his comments to be a "gut" feeling. When he says "We will build one of them", that is a pretty definitive statement coming from the CEO of the company.

Except for the part where you removed the context.

He said: "We will build one of them, right?"

Which makes it anything but a confident statement of fact.

 

[The Historian]

...No console GPU has ever been a straight PC GPU though.

RSX for PS3. It could only be called "custom" in the very broadest sense of the word.

 

[Ruskie]

I'm still trying to figure out how the hell could that pastebin guy know about Durango and Orbis codenames half year before everybody else found it out? He suspiciously sounds like DaE

 

[ams]

Who chose first? Do you really believe part of their criteria in choosing a GPU is not using the same vendor as their competition? That's ridiculous.

Use some common sense for a minute. Do you really think it makes sense for archrivals who are directly competing against each other to use identical GPU hardware from the exact same GPU hardware vendor when there is equally good GPU hardware available from another experienced and established GPU hardware vendor? If Microsoft/Sony used different GPU hardware vendors for Xbox 360/PS3, then why would anyone in their right mind expect anything different for Xbox 720/PS4?

 

[ams]

Except for the part where you removed the context.

He said: "We will build one of them, right?"

Err, what? Re-read it again. He did not state it as a question, he stated it as a fact.

Q: Do you think there will be another round of consoles coming?
A: Oh, no question about it.​

Q: And can you predict when it will be in terms of how many years from now?
A: We will build one of them, right.​

 

[Ruskie]

Not so sure nVidia is going to be in next gen consoles. Yes, AMD probably doesn't have enough talented people to make GPUs for 3 different customers, but thats 3 custom GPUs. It seems that (at least in Sony case) they are going for of shelf GPU with good perf per watt ratio and than cut/add things depending on what they need/want. Wii U card is finished, and Durangos one is supposedly more custom and is now high priority (according to guy who's friend is engineer at AMD)

 

[bgassassin]

Err, what? Re-read it again. He did not state it as a question, he stated it as a fact.

Q: Do you think there will be another round of consoles coming?
A: Oh, no question about it.​

Q: And can you predict when it will be in terms of how many years from now?
A: We will build one of them, right.​

You're really taking what he said out of context. You're separating his claim from his reasoning. You can't do that.

 

[Ruskie]

You're really taking what he said out of context. You're separating his claim from his reasoning. You can't do that.

Although, in his defense, I somehow doubt that Jen could say such thing in March last year if he at least wasn't contacted by one of them for developing a GPU for next gen console. Its not like he doesn't know when the development of next generation hardware begins.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Use some common sense for a minute. Do you really think it makes sense for archrivals who are directly competing against each other to use identical GPU hardware from the exact same GPU hardware vendor when there is equally good GPU hardware available from another experienced and established GPU hardware vendor? If Microsoft/Sony used different GPU hardware vendors for Xbox 360/PS3, then why would anyone in their right mind expect anything different for Xbox 720/PS4?

No you're the one that needs to use common sense. Vendor really has nothing to do with competition. The vendor of the part isn't used as a big selling point, they don't advertise 'graphics by AMD' on the box. The customers are actually told very little about the actual hardware in the boxes, they will ship with a laundry list of checkbox features, some of them will be different, their OS will be different and the box they are stuck in will look different. And yet in the end most of the games on them will be very much the same, just like this gen despite the different hardware.

 

[bgassassin]

Although, in his defense, I somehow doubt that Jen could say such thing in March last year if he at least wasn't contacted by one of them for developing a GPU for next gen console. Its not like he doesn't know when the development of next generation hardware begins.

If that's the case then that is a poor choice of words on his part. A "no comment at this time" would have been better. The guy even talks about doing it in a short time because of console makers "waiting till the last minute" to ask for a GPU to be made (probably basing that on PS3). Sounds more like pure assumption at that time.

 

[Ruskie]

If that's the case then that is a poor choice of words on his part. A "no comment at this time" would have been better. The guy even talks about doing it in a short time because of console makers "waiting till the last minute" to ask for a GPU to be made (probably basing that on PS3). Sounds more like pure assumption at that time.

Yea, that could be it. Just imagine...Jen still waiting for that next gen contact

And as I already mentioned, I don't think nVidia would deliver GPU that MS wants (as your source said, eSRAM). Sony would be better customer, but it seems they are tied with AMD.

 

[Acert93]

If that's the case then that is a poor choice of words on his part. A "no comment at this time" would have been better. The guy even talks about doing it in a short time because of console makers "waiting till the last minute" to ask for a GPU to be made (probably basing that on PS3). Sounds more like pure assumption at that time.

On the other hand the CEO of the bigger GPU-centric firm in the world is, even if vague, not easily dismissed against "random internet sources" which are (a) not reputal news outlets (e.g. like IGN) which have something to lose with false info and (b) have confirmed nothing that can be independently verified at this time.

As it stands we are past the mid point in 2012 and no official news has been made about GPU, CPU, Memory, Manufacturing, etc contracts and we have nothing solid (e.g. a leak to a reputable outlet) to hang a hat on.

So while I don't take Jen too seriously as he is vague and has a horse in the race what he says has some merit -- and so far, with how disappointingly unclear and unverifiable and contradictory "rumors" have been his statement has at least something to hang a hat on.

Also, Kepler addressing the Fermi line of products TDP issues as well as NV's experience with consoles (2 previous consoles) and software/tools and dev relationships and willingness to let the console maker make their own fab contracts and, importantly, NV's fiscal health all make it difficult just to ignore their products.

 

[ams]

You're really taking what he said out of context. You're separating his claim from his reasoning. You can't do that.

I am not taking anything out of context, his interview text is available for the whole world to read The text is very clear about what NVIDIA is doing, and about why they are doing it (rather than having just one GPU hardware vendor shoulder the load for three next gen consoles). If he said "We anticipate" or "We expect" to do something, then that would have a totally different meaning than "We will" do something.

 

[bgassassin]

I am not taking anything out of context, his interview text is available for the whole world to read The text is very clear about what NVIDIA is doing, and about why they are doing it (rather than having just one GPU hardware vendor shoulder the load). If he said "We expect to" do something, then that would be a speculative comment with a totally different meaning.

Haha. It is clear and it seems you're the only one seeing it that way so far. He said they will build one because no one can build three at one time. So what if AMD has shown they can build three at one time?

 

[itsmydamnation]

On the other hand the CEO of the bigger GPU-centric firm in the world is, even if vague, not easily dismissed against "random internet sources" which are (a) not reputal news outlets (e.g. like IGN) which have something to lose with false info and (b) have confirmed nothing that can be independently verified at this time.

As it stands we are past the mid point in 2012 and no official news has been made about GPU, CPU, Memory, Manufacturing, etc contracts and we have nothing solid (e.g. a leak to a reputable outlet) to hang a hat on.

So while I don't take Jen too seriously as he is vague and has a horse in the race what he says has some merit -- and so far, with how disappointingly unclear and unverifiable and contradictory "rumors" have been his statement has at least something to hang a hat on.

Also, Kepler addressing the Fermi line of products TDP issues as well as NV's experience with consoles (2 previous consoles) and software/tools and dev relationships and willingness to let the console maker make their own fab contracts and, importantly, NV's fiscal health all make it difficult just to ignore their products.

None of those really differentiate them from AMD, yet when in comes to runs on the board ( actually pumping out GPU's) AMD has out performed NV for years. Unless the reason for that is NV are dedicating all their engineers to console GPU's because they have both MS and SONY .

To me neither GK104 or GK107 seem ideal for a console.