Still betting Microsoft goes with NVIDIA again.
Still thinking about I don't remember which instruction that appeared on Nvidia gpu instruction set I don't remember when? Or it's a bet based on your gut feelings? Or something else?
If I were in your direction I would say that if MS were to dismiss AMD for the GPU I would be kind of be surprised if they were not doing the same for the CPU (especially as GPU is AMD strong point).
So to me if they were to use a Nvidia GPU (trumping every body in the process ) what would be your bet for the CPU?
Early leaked documents about Durango told us that MS was considering (as well as a crazily complex system) to use either X86 or ARM CPU (aside some fitting a Xenon somewhere on the board). So It's either a complete Nvidia system (based on Cortex A15) or an system including both INtel and Nvidia parts.
For some reason and as much as I would like it I can't see Intel making enough of a discount for MS to sign them, too costly. That let Nvidia. Nvidia is perceived as a bad partner in the console board for historical reasons but history shows us that when they have to they can come with pretty sweet (as it's rumored they did with their tegra3).
On the other hand, in early documents BC seemed important enough for MS to consider including a Xenon for BC in Durango. I don't like that option if BC is that important to them (vs the benefits of only supporting the two dominant(/remaining) ISA in the personal realm ARM and X86) they may as well stick with IBM, but I think it's unlikely as the benefits of ARM or X86 are greater.
My memory tells me that some
rumors stated that Sony was confident that they would made it to next gen before MSFT. I can't remember if that has been discarded as fake or forgotten though ( I guess only time will tell).
If there is truth in this I could see the odds for your bet raised a bit. In the current rumors everybody is on AMD. I would not expect Sony and MS to know exactly what the other is to push out but if MSFT were to change his mind and move for another hardware provider I guess they would have learned it at some point.
A fiction scenario could be that at some point in the second semester of 2011 MSFT strongly doubt AMD abilities to reach the requirement they had for the system. That could revolve around Bulldozer overall performances as AMD is delivering on the GPU side (pretty flawless in the last years).
At the same time Nvidia seeing is revenues from the low graphic segment melting approached them (again) and made them a real good offer deal including CPU and GPU.
MSFT seeing the problem AMD is facing with it CPU line (delay, perfs, etc.) decided to do the jump. Sony heard of it latter on and some of it transpired to a web site...
Sony may think that MSFT made a complete change in the development of their next gen console at a pretty late point and that they are on a rush to make it for 2013. MSFT may missed the 2013 holidays by a few months (and I don't think they would be willing to reproduce a RroD for their next system).
Whether Sony is right or wrong is irrelevant what would be relevant is that the leak was legit and Sony though that based on information they managed to gather at some point.
What could have Nvidia offered or shown them to sweeten the deal? We know that Nvidia is working on a high performance SoC ARm based, they have low power SoC that are to run Win8 in a couple of months, etc.
They have a nice offering of products on their own that could find their place in a console, a tegra4 SoC ( I expect it to be like the third rendition not the best in town but cheap and tiny) matched by an high performance SOC would be sexy, all this running on the same ISA.
To kind of match the rumor we hear, it could that the system is set to have a tegra 3+/4 with 1 or 2 GB of RAM running windows8 RT and the high performance SOC would kick in only in games and would access 4GB of GDDR3 (as we hope Sony could do). The system would run a special Windows8 RT edition and the low power SOC would do the necessary work for the background service and kinect 1/2 within a really low power envelope that would match an always on device.
As for the rumors surrounding the dev kits (intel + NV even though mostly debunked it seems) well MSFT may use whatever it think it fits for the developers to work on, I expect that some beefy Intel CPU with high clock speed and plenty of ram could emulate (or close enough) ARM cores and for the GPU well if they are to go with Nvidia it makes sense.
It would also match the rumors/leaks stating that Durango is like "two PCs".
AS for the gain vs an AMD based system, well it could be that a the time of the shift neither BD of Bobcat were where MSFT wants with regard to the performance per watts and transistors. Shacky execution in the AMD CPU division would have sealed the deal in favor of Nvidia.
But it could also be merit in Nvida offering, they may have given proper estimate of their upcoming Kepler part wrt to perfs per Watts and sq.mm. May be they have something really interesting coming for their next generation of GPU too.
On the CPU side, either way Nvidia is to use pretty off the shelves a15/A7 parts (for both upcoming tegra and maxwell) and MS vouched the perfs per watts and sq.mm of those CPU ir they have an interesting in house ARM implementation that MS vouched as interesting.
As for the intensive of Nvidia to do a great deal, I see multiple ones, they are facing high competition in the embedded world from companies more resourceful than they are, they may make MS a bargain if they are to use their SOC for their next products ( surface 2&3).
They need to do volume anyway even if margins suffers especially with the low end GPU market now being dead. They would secure quiet some volume (MS tablets and to a lesser extend the low power SOC in the box).
They would be the first to provide a high performance SOC based on ARM, by high performance I mean able to run windows8rt and potent enough for (really core)games. As it is with wide IO, stacked memory,etc on the horizon the very same horizon is pretty cloudy for them in the x86 realm as APU are set to be more and more relevant vs discrete. If MSFT go with the that will have positive repercussion on their brand, and that alone could put the Maxwell project in the grey.
I don't see Nvidia sell any IP to MSFT as I can see them wanting to leverage on that to sell the part on their own in different markets, but I can't see them offering good prices with a clear rebate as volume ramp up (so the price of the part goes down as volume get bigger).
PS: (not adressed to you MfA)
Definitely this is
speculation but the last pages are so boring to me it's no longer predicting/betting or anything it's about reporting rumors, leaks found (more dig out from) here and there discussing them, not that it's bad but I don't believe that it was the real purpose of that thread, for that matter I believe the thread started by Acret93 would be a better place (wrt to MSFT at least).
