Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Titanio]

Intel talking to console manufacturers about using Larrabee in next-gen systems

A bit of a "duh" piece of news, but it's the first time I've seen more explicit confirmation that Intel is pursuing the home console market with Larabee.

Supercomputing for the Masses

But the chipmakers don't expect to stop there. They plan to have dozens of processors on silicon chips within a decade. Marshalling all that power could open doors to new ways of interacting with machines.

Intel has talked to console video game makers about using chips that can perform in excess of 1 trillion calculations per second (BusinessWeek.com, 2/12/07) in future products that use cameras to track body motion to control the action, instead of using buttons or joysticks. "We imagine some future generation of [Nintendo's] Wii won't have hand controllers," says Justin Rattner, Intel's chief technology officer. "You just set up the cameras around the room and wave your hand like you're playing tennis." Intel missed out on supplying chips for the current generation of game systems, and is trying to gain a foothold there.

So yeah, eyetoy+ is what he's talking about there, but I think Sony is probably the least likely of the three to adopt their chips. MS would probably be a prime candidate, but the intel to powerpc back to intel transitions could offer further headaches for backwards compatibility (if that were still a concern..perhaps not, now that Sony has pushed it down their list of priorities).

Anyways, just thought it was worth posting in case there was any doubt that Intel wants their hat in the ring next gen.

 

[Rangers]

I would think MS might be all over this. Due to the anecdote in Takahashi's book about how badly Bill Gates tried to keep Intel in 360 out of loyalty.

The time frame might be perfect for Xbox 3 as well..and if anybody can upend Nvidia, my money is on Intel, they've got the money and their engineering is incredible (hello, ATI).

That's a whole lotta speculation though..and I'm not one to know, but it seems odd to me if Larrabee is being positioned more at GPGPU than straight GPU (such as the very Wii example)..seems odd because there isn't much market for GPGPU.

PS4 with Nvidia versus Xbox 3 with Intel inside sounds like a fun matchup :smile:

 

[one]

Thanks, very interesting article!

MS would probably be a prime candidate, but the intel to powerpc back to intel transitions could offer further headaches for backwards compatibility (if that were still a concern..perhaps not, now that Sony has pushed it down their list of priorities).

The CPU side won't be a problem, but if they choose AMD for the GPU I can't imagine AMD and Intel closely tied in the same box However it seems the economic state of AMD is really bad these days, Intel may be able to score a deal of a full-Intel system with Intel CPU + Intel GPU if they can discount enough. In any case the Wii impact is huge, it'll become harder to sell a high-end component for the console market.

 

[22psi]

Wasn't MS really looking at an Intel based CPU for 360 then went to IBM due to costs and performance tradeoffs? I don't necessarily think Intel is a sure bet for any console manufacture for the next gen as costs will be a higher priority than ever. I think looking back 3-4 years from now, MS and moreso Sony, will be thinking hard to put out a console that is more than $400 at launch.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If Intel have any sense though, they'll do a discount. It's better to have your CPU in tens of millions of consoles at a lower price than to not have it at all at a higher price... Something amicable for all parties should be wrangleable from the negotiating table.

 

[22psi]

If Intel have any sense though, they'll do a discount. It's better to have your CPU in tens of millions of consoles at a lower price than to not have it at all at a higher price... Something amicable for all parties should be wrangleable from the negotiating table.

Yeah that will probably be the case next gen, this gen Intel really missed out. I think they'll market Larrabee/whatever aggressively to all 3 manufacturers with big incentives buying bulk. I think Sony may stick with IBM however.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sony will surely stick Cell. Incredibly stupid not to!

 

[Gubbi]

I don't think the high margin economics of Intel meshes well with the cut-throat cost cutting reality of consoles.

I also don't think Microsoft will opt for a radically new programming model that Larrabee seems to imply (local memories, very long vectors).

They've already proven this generation that time-to-market is a *big* factor. One thing is being able to sell hardware before the competitors, another very important factor is the time it takes before titles that are perceived as next gen are available. This requires two things: mature tools and developers being familiar with the architecture from the get go.

Personally I think they'll opt for something like PA Semi's low power 3-way superscalar PPC cores. They'd be able to fit 12-16 of those together on a die with a fair amount of cache. You'd get easier backwards compatibility thanks to sticking with the same ISA (PPC) and the added benefit of OoO execution making development easier.

Cheers

 

[liolio]

Very in line with my prediction, TheChefO at least I wasn't that far

I'm pretty sure Ms could settle over some inflections on the way that directX is taking (more and more flexible gpu ) while INtel could lower its prices.

If this happens it will also mean tha tMs is likely to have a process advantage over Sony on the CPU,Intel is likely to be the only company to offer 32nm chips by2010/11.

 

[one]

I also don't think Microsoft will opt for a radically new programming model that Larrabee seems to imply (local memories, very long vectors).

How about adding a large IA core or two in it for the OS and backward-compat emulation? It can be a homo-ISA, hetero-multicore processor.

 

[liolio]

I don't think MS will care that much about backward compatibilty, most of this gen game are multi plateform wich include PC, MS will find a softawre solution easily for the most wanted games.

Supposely how many flop the larrabee is suppose to deliver?

 

[liolio]

I don't think the high margin economics of Intel meshes well with the cut-throat cost cutting reality of consoles.

I also don't think Microsoft will opt for a radically new programming model that Larrabee seems to imply (local memories, very long vectors).

the larrabee supossely include a share L2 cach,no?

They've already proven this generation that time-to-market is a *big* factor. One thing is being able to sell hardware before the competitors, another very important factor is the time it takes before titles that are perceived as next gen are available. This requires two things: mature tools and developers being familiar with the architecture from the get go.

If MS goes with Intel they will be able to launch @32nml before theirs competitors.
Which means that competitors won't be able to cram as many transistors so:
They will launch bigger warmer and lower clocked products
or will have to wait for the 32nm processto be more widelyavailable.

Personally I think they'll opt for something like PA Semi's low power 3-way superscalar PPC cores. They'd be able to fit 12-16 of those together on a die with a fair amount of cache. You'd get easier backwards compatibility thanks to sticking with the same ISA (PPC) and the added benefit of OoO execution making development easier.

Cheers

I don't know Ms will surely carrefully consider both.

 

[Nano]

Well, I saw this coming :smile:

At the moment, everyone seems to be in the console market except Intel.

I think Larrabee would offer outstanding possibilities for 8th gen consoles with its computing power and flexibility, but I just wonder how practical it is. As has been mentioned before, it will mean a change in programming models and would have issues with backwards compatibility. It would be a big departure from current systems.

I would find it very unlikely for Sony to adopt Larrabee in PS4, especially with the Cell development roadmap they will inevitably follow. Who knows what Nintendo will do next, but I think they'll push visual processing technology a little more than this time, with which company I can't tell. Wasn't there once suggestion of Microsoft going in-house with their Xbox 3 console architecture?

 

[Diamond.G]

Will Intel license the IP? Isn't that what screwed MS with the xbox?

 

[Color me Dan]

I was going to say the same thing, I thought the very reason MS stayed away from Intel was because of licensing issues and that is why MS was considering inhouse development. For this gen IBM gave them what they wanted which obviously Intel couldn't, so why change? That's just a hypothetical question of mine off course, but i'd imagine IBM could whip something up which would make current coding practices on the Xbox not obsolete next gen and still be very poweful and competetive.

 

[liolio]

I was going to say the same thing, I thought the very reason MS stayed away from Intel was because of licensing issues and that is why MS was considering inhouse development. For this gen IBM gave them what they wanted which obviously Intel couldn't, so why change? That's just a hypothetical question of mine off course, but i'd imagine IBM could whip something up which would make current coding practices on the Xbox not obsolete next gen and still be very poweful and competetive.

I agree but if you look at intel have been vocal about directX lately (ie not giving htecpu the role it should have in the graphic pipeline or I don'tto see more flexible gpu eating too much of my market share for some applications ),may Ms and Intel could settle over something making everybody happy while not stealing gpu vendors theirs main business)
EDIT little reminder Intel owns Havoc now

 

[liolio]

There have been really few people on that board lately, I'm amazed that so few people reacted ot this new!

For me it's a good hint at what MS could come with for the nextgen IF Intel is really serious about gaining hold on the console market (and democratize its larrabee) and thus accept to sell the chip (as the cpu part) with relatively low margin.

 

[Nano]

What are your opinions on Microsoft even going for a complete GPU/CPU solution from Intel, or on the other hand a complete solution from AMD?

 

[pascal]

Sony will surely stick Cell. Incredibly stupid not to!

Agree. Cell is a very advanced technology which is still evolving and have lots of space to explore.

IMHO PS4 should be a very fast PS3 (Teraflops Cell) with more memory and improved/better developer tools, basic software and customer service. Also full PS3 compatbility and new hardware interfaces (headup displays and gloves ).

 

[WhiteCrane]

Meh. I hope not.

RISC CPU's are better for gaming. PowerPC for life!

I like sony's way of doing things. They use specialized CPU's not general purpose CPU's. For example, PS2's CPU was made by HITACHI