Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[woundingchaney]

Each generation has its own rules. The playstation generation it was the most powerfull when it launched and it wasn't untill what 18 months later that the n64 launched ? What do we learn from that generation ? Its not to launch an under powered system or a hard to program for system (saturn) or launch extremely late (n64) The ps2 era taught us that launchig first at a low price point wont work if your broke (dreamcast) and launching late with a cheap system and no third party support wouldn't work (gamecube) and launching late with an expensive system , no brand name and no large first party excluvies (xbox ) wont work either.

Standards still remain throughout generations regardless though. Price points are comparable for mainstream acceptance. Solid library of titles are needed as well and I would say a recognizable brand name and marketing. Though what doesnt seem to be overly important is hardware.

Every gen teaches us something diffrent and next gen being a cheap console with low end graphics (comparable ) may not work no matter how many gimmicks you throw in . It may be that nex gen its the console that has the best graphics that win.

It may very well be the most advanced console that sells the most next gen, but what gaming division is going to put so much at stake repeatedly?? Surely in a business sense these divisions are looking at profit margins and investment return. The re-couping of losses scenario is simply not working currently for either MS or Sony and the entire concept looks more and more dated as the market structures itself. Unless we see a dramatic shift in unit sales and software sales it is entirely possible that neither of the HD (tech-based) consoles are going to be posting profits on a whole for this generation. Moving from one generation to the next and relying on the same base structure in order to build a successful console is bordering on Einstein's definition of insanity.

 

[Carl B]

He is just saying what i have said in the past. Nintendo could liscense the xbox 360 design from ms. Put the whole thing on 45nm or 35nm (whatever it may be at the time) and in my opinion double the memory.

What nintendo can gain from this is a complete high def system with tons of dev tools and a large amount of engines. its basicly what they got from the wii. The wii had all of the above (except high def graphics) this way nintendo can just focus on their games. A 2010 / 2011 xbox 360 would be extremely cheap.

Nintendo wants to be beholden to MS as much as MS wants to drop their own standards and run the next XBox on OpenGL and Linux. A 'complete high def' system is as easy as grabbing the nearest ancient/cheap IC design, and their primary engines are only ever their own to begin with. Or do we think for a moment that Miyamoto is going to start building Mario Party's around Unreal?

It's completely ridiculous - our cell phones will be able to put out HD graphics come 2011, I don't think Nintendo is going to be breaking a sweat to manage the same, and nor are they going to give up some of the key aspects/control of their profitability.

 

[wco81]

Nintendo better hope the Wii gamers are interested in upgrading every 5 years like hardcore gamers.

Maybe they just need to repackage the current hardware and pass it off as something new. After all, Wii gamers can't care too much about graphics.

Look at how successive iterations of the Gameboy and the DS have fared. It's mostly first-party games which sell on Nintendo platforms.

They could put out an advanced piece of hardware but they could also sell an Etch-a-Sketch with crude Mario drawings on it and it'll probably sell well.

 

[Squilliam]

Nintendo wants to be beholden to MS as much as MS wants to drop their own standards and run the next XBox on OpenGL and Linux. A 'complete high def' system is as easy as grabbing the nearest ancient/cheap IC design, and their primary engines are only ever their own to begin with. Or do we think for a moment that Miyamoto is going to start building Mario Party's around Unreal?

It's completely ridiculous - our cell phones will be able to put out HD graphics come 2011, I don't think Nintendo is going to be breaking a sweat to manage the same, and nor are they going to give up some of the key aspects/control of their profitability.

Consider Hardware design > Software tools > Consumer Experience.

In this current generation to put it simply Nintendo didn't spend up large at all on either Hardware design or Software tools. They were simply a means to help develop their consumer experience and they didn't put nearly as much time or effort into either categories. The Wiimote, Wii sports etc were all the result of their consumer focused mindset and this is their strength.

If what they did with the Wii works, why do they have to change their strategy? Its the same arguments that favour using generic engines such as UE3 for software development even though custom engines may suit the developers needs better in different ways. If it costs a $billion in terms of I.P and years of development and it costs the same amount to use a pre-existing platform but with the added benifit of being able to "hit the generation running" so to speak and better expend your limited resources in directions which may be of greater benifit to your console why not? They definately have all the cash they need.

On Microsofts side, I see no reason why they would bend Nintendo over a barrel when it profits them in triplicate. Firstly it would extend the life of the 360 platform so they can keep producing their own console cheaply with better economies of scale and continued platform software adoption, Secondly it would spread the cost of development over a wider userbase and make their Xbox 360 adventures even more profitable, thirdly it expands their direct X empire and thus their hold over a windows empire they are trying to protect.

 

[Crossbar]

Consider Hardware design > Software tools > Consumer Experience.

In this current generation to put it simply Nintendo didn't spend up large at all on either Hardware design or Software tools. They were simply a means to help develop their consumer experience and they didn't put nearly as much time or effort into either categories. The Wiimote, Wii sports etc were all the result of their consumer focused mindset and this is their strength.

If what they did with the Wii works, why do they have to change their strategy? Its the same arguments that favour using generic engines such as UE3 for software development even though custom engines may suit the developers needs better in different ways. If it costs a $billion in terms of I.P and years of development and it costs the same amount to use a pre-existing platform but with the added benifit of being able to "hit the generation running" so to speak and better expend your limited resources in directions which may be of greater benifit to your console why not? They definately have all the cash they need.

On Microsofts side, I see no reason why they would bend Nintendo over a barrel when it profits them in triplicate. Firstly it would extend the life of the 360 platform so they can keep producing their own console cheaply with better economies of scale and continued platform software adoption, Secondly it would spread the cost of development over a wider userbase and make their Xbox 360 adventures even more profitable, thirdly it expands their direct X empire and thus their hold over a windows empire they are trying to protect.

Please give it a rest. Do you really think Nintendo wants to end up paying license fees to one of their fiercest comptetitor. That would be suicidal, but it sure would be the wet dream of Microsoft. Why do think Sony was battling Immersion to the bitter end in court to avoid paying a fee for each controller and why was rumble removed in the original Sixaxis? Why do you think Wiis can´t play DVD movies? I could go on. It´s because consoles are high volumes low cost products where every penny counts.

Nintendo has all the money and competence they need to design their own competetive next gen console according to their own design goals which probably differ a lot from the old 360 design. The hardware will probably be designed to simplify support from UE3 and other HD game engines as well if development support is your major concern.

BTW the Wii was off for a pretty good start among developers as it built upon the well known GameCube design.

 

[Squilliam]

Please give it a rest. Do you really think Nintendo wants to end up paying license fees to one of their fiercest comptetitor. That would be suicidal, but it sure would be the wet dream of Microsoft. Why do think Sony was battling Immersion to the bitter end in court to avoid paying a fee for each controller and why was rumble removed in the original Sixaxis? Why do you think Wiis can´t play DVD movies? I could go on. It´s because consoles are high volumes low cost products where every penny counts.

Nintendo has all the money and competence they need to design their own competetive next gen console according to their own design goals which probably differ a lot from the old 360 design. The hardware will probably be designed to simplify support from UE3 and other HD game engines as well if development support is your major concern.

BTW the Wii was off for a pretty good start among developers as it built upon the well known GameCube design.

The Gamecube was off to a good start yes, but thats a dead end design now. I do agree they have the money and competence, however the next "Wii" will have to be a blank slate from a design perspective. They have to "buy" a new licence for all the technology they are going to use in a new console anyway and develop tools for developers to use for multi-threaded CPU design. Within a few years the Xbox 360 design will fit the current Wiis design parameters and as a mature platform their own software developers and engineers can focus their energy where it counts. Sony/Microsoft are likely to attempt a counter-attack on the market the Wii currently occupies, so they need to expend their limited manpower in directions which directly improve their chances of produces another extremely successful console.

 

[eastmen]

The Gamecube was off to a good start yes, but thats a dead end design now. I do agree they have the money and competence, however the next "Wii" will have to be a blank slate from a design perspective. They have to "buy" a new licence for all the technology they are going to use in a new console anyway and develop tools for developers to use for multi-threaded CPU design. Within a few years the Xbox 360 design will fit the current Wiis design parameters and as a mature platform their own software developers and engineers can focus their energy where it counts. Sony/Microsoft are likely to attempt a counter-attack on the market the Wii currently occupies, so they need to expend their limited manpower in directions which directly improve their chances of produces another extremely successful console.

Exactly. They were able to get away with using gamecube engines and dev tools. What will they do next gen when they have to move all their tools and engines over for high res textures and the new shader featurs out there.

liscensing the 360 with its dev tools and engines could be the cheapest way to go for them. Like said they get all the tools , they will have acess to a highly tweaked unreal 3 engine , all the 3rd party devs will have knowledge of the system plus their own engines for it.

Add in extra ram to give the aging hardware a kick and they have a cheap next gen system. Far cheaper than what it would cost them t create new systems

 

[Squilliam]

@Eastmen, if you consider the fact that the Wii uses the closest interface possible to your everyday mouse which has been implemented on a console using a console architecture which is almost transparent when considering cross platform development to a PC architecture makes sense IMO.

 

[eastmen]

@Eastmen, if you consider the fact that the Wii uses the closest interface possible to your everyday mouse which has been implemented on a console using a console architecture which is almost transparent when considering cross platform development to a PC architecture makes sense IMO.

i think the wii mote sucks and is worthless as a mouse alternative. Its only usefull with basic games and I can't picture myself playing pc games using it.

 

[Crossbar]

My reference to the GameCube was just to point out that Nintendo didn´t need to spend much money on dev tools this generation.

I you want to pursue that the smartest thing for Nintendo would be to license the 360 hardware for the next generation, that´s fine with me. Personally I think Nintendo is smarter than that. Licensing licensed technology is usually not the chepest route, investing money in evolving current tools and developing new tools seems like a smarter long term move than subsidising a competitors hardware etc.etc.

 

[eastmen]

My reference to the GameCube was just to point out that Nintendo didn´t need to spend much money on dev tools this generation.

I you want to pursue that the smartest thing for Nintendo would be to license the 360 hardware for the next generation, that´s fine with me. Personally I think Nintendo is smarter than that. Licensing licensed technology is usually not the chepest route, investing money in evolving current tools and developing new tools seems like a smarter long term move than subsidising a competitors hardware etc.etc.

so do you think a faster wii with even more memory would be the optimal way to get high def graphics. Don't you think that even if they make it 3 times faster than the wii using the same basic chips they would be at an even greater disadvantage graphics wise.

Nintendo didn't need to spend much on dev tools this gen because they used a faster verison of their past console. That wont fly next gen.

 

[Megadrive1988]

Nintendo cannot just use a Wii-based chipset that's 3-5x faster and more memory for the Wii 2 / Wii HD / Super Wii or whatever the next-gen Wii is called.

Nintendo needs a modern CPU/GPU architecture that's no older than 2007-2008 tech (preferably 2009-2010 tech) in terms of features/capabilities. As far as speed/performance (and im not talking about MHz/GHz/clockspeeds), it needs to have somewhat more performance than the PPEs in Xenon & CELL and the pipelines/ALUs/shaders/ROPs, etc in Xenos & RSX. I'd like to be able to see Nintendo 1st-party games in 1080p @ 60fps with a decent level of AA and next-gen graphics that are a console-generation and a half beyond GCN & Wii.

I'm thinking Nintendo's main franchise games looking 10-20x nicer than Metroid Prime 3 & Mario Galaxy, and 20-30x nicer than Zelda Twilight Princess. That could be achieved one a single GPU with 4870X2 level performance (55nm down to 32nm will make a large difference in die size, thermals, power consumption, cost) and a custom single or dual core IBM G5-based CPU. With 1 or 2 GB RAM total. Even if Nintendo doesn't offer as much brute power as what XB3/PS4 *might* offer. Those consoles could have 16-32 core manycore CPUs, highly complex GPUs with 2-3 billion transistors, 4-8 GB RAM.


If next-gen Wii is as comparable to XBox3 as the cheap-GCN was to the more expensive-Xbox1, that would be nice.

 

[Megadrive1988]

My reference to the GameCube was just to point out that Nintendo didn´t need to spend much money on dev tools this generation.

I you want to pursue that the smartest thing for Nintendo would be to license the 360 hardware for the next generation, that´s fine with me. Personally I think Nintendo is smarter than that. Licensing licensed technology is usually not the chepest route, investing money in evolving current tools and developing new tools seems like a smarter long term move than subsidising a competitors hardware etc.etc.

The 360 hardware is not good enough for next-gen Nintendo console. Only way that might be reasonable is if it's a beefed up 360 with 2-3x the power and 2-4x the RAM. The 360 isn't good enough for native 1080p, 60FPS, AA and truly next-gen looking graphics all combined at once. Nintendo's best bet is to use newer technology from 2008-2010.

 

[wco81]

Why do you need that kind of graphics power for Mario of little Wii Sports figures?

Hell, look at how Rock Star and Guitar Hero are selling with their crude graphics.

 

[Crossbar]

so do you think a faster wii with even more memory would be the optimal way to get high def graphics.

No and I never said such a thing. I am not trying to predict the feature set of the Wii HD, I am just pretty sure it will not based on the 360 hw that´s all.

 

[kyetech]

The 360 hardware is not good enough for next-gen Nintendo console. Only way that might be reasonable is if it's a beefed up 360 with 2-3x the power and 2-4x the RAM. The 360 isn't good enough for native 1080p, 60FPS, AA and truly next-gen looking graphics all combined at once. Nintendo's best bet is to use newer technology from 2008-2010.

So your saying that if nintendo's next gen console can 'only' put out gears of war2 quality visuals, then they havnt done good enough? Not sure about that really, that would already represent practically a ten fold increase over what their current console will do, and will piggy back nicely on current development knowledge? Would wii sports2 - mario galaxy2 - really benifit from any more horse power than the 360?

 

[ShadowRunner]

...Would wii sports2 - mario galaxy2 - really benifit from any more horse power than the 360?

Of course they would. I want my mario games looking like todays CG movies, even the most powerful of the next generation of consoles wont be able to achieve that let alone a 360

Nintendo could benefit more than both Sony/MS by doing for a comparatively high powered console as it will provide a huge leap from thier current offering and thus will be easier to justify an upgrade.

I dissagree with the notion that graphics dont matter to wii users. Its just that the motion controls and related marketing of them mattered more. Unless nintendo come up with something as unique and groundbreaking like thier current offering a huge jump in graphics capabilitys is their best bet.

 

[ShadowRunner]

No and I never said such a thing. I am not trying to predict the feature set of the Wii HD, I am just pretty sure it will not based on the 360 hw that´s all.

Im more than pretty sure, its totally rediculous!

 

[kyetech]

Of course they would. I want my mario games looking like todays CG movies, even the most powerful of the next generation of consoles wont be able to achieve that let alone a 360

Nintendo could benefit more than both Sony/MS by doing for a comparatively high powered console as it will provide a huge leap from thier current offering and thus will be easier to justify an upgrade.

I dissagree with the notion that graphics dont matter to wii users. Its just that the motion controls and related marketing of them mattered more. Unless nintendo come up with something as unique and groundbreaking like thier current offering a huge jump in graphics capabilitys is their best bet.

Well, mario would have to do something pretty spectacular to pull out more detail than a gears of war game.

I agree about the CGI rendering style though. It would be nice to see GI/radiosity rendered mario imagery, but then it can be fudged nicely today with rendering tricks (think Blue dragon),

Take the detail of Gears of war + the smooth radiosity style rendering of Blue Dragon and you wont be far off what your looking for.

 

[Megadrive1988]

So your saying that if nintendo's next gen console can 'only' put out gears of war2 quality visuals, then they havnt done good enough? Not sure about that really, that would already represent practically a ten fold increase over what their current console will do, and will piggy back nicely on current development knowledge? Would wii sports2 - mario galaxy2 - really benifit from any more horse power than the 360?

Absolutely. The realtime, in-game, gameplay graphics/visuals of the best 360/PS3 games fall far short of CG-like graphics. Gears of War2 is nowhere near good enough. While Nintendo isn't going to make CPU/GPU power the focus of the next-gen Wii, there is no reason for them to skimp out on reasonable graphics that look good really good. And to me that means better then 360/PS3 which were disappointing given all the hype.

Keep in mind that the next Nintendo console will come out in 2011 or 2012 and have to last until anywhere from 2016 to 2019 before the next-next gen (Wii3) console comes along. Do you really want 2004 graphics tech powering Nintendo games late into the next decade? I don't. The horse power of the 360 (and Ps3) are barely good enough for full HD, and also don't really display graphics that I would call "next-gen" over the original Xbox. I'd like a Wii2 to provide realtime graphics that remind me of a Pixar movie, even though Wii2 wouldn't technically be able to do 100% the rendering quality of a Pixar film, Wii2 games could look good enough to make people draw that comparison. Mario Galaxy looks amazing. Just think what EAD Tokyo could do with 100x as much power as Wii instead of 10x. The current highend PC graphic solutions already have 5-10 more power than 360/PS3 GPUs and thus those PC solutions have 50-100x the performance of Wii (if not more) so imagine how much things can advance by 2011 or 2012. Even if Wii2 doesn't have a state-of-the-art GPU by 2011/2012 standards, I don't see why Nintendo couldn't have a 32nm or 22nm GPU that has as much power as 2x CrossFire 4870X2 or Triple SLI GTX280 that's power efficient, cool, reasonably cheap to manufacture. I don't know why people seem to be satisfied with Wii2 being only 360-class.

With a powerful machine in terms of graphics, and a simple CPU architecture (single core or dual core), Nintendo and 3rd parties will have the option of doing any type of game-graphics. They can do simple Wii-like graphics in HD, or upto 360/PS3 graphics, or really amazing CG-like graphics. All depending on what they want to express and what they want to spend on game development.