Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

Discussion in 'Console Technology' started by Acert93, Jun 12, 2006.

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  1. ergem

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    they're expected increase in profit margin might come from the matured ps suite business.. i believe kaz hirai was quoted stating he expects the PSN that's including the ps suite platform to be a 3-billion dollar business in the future..

    I also heard of a similar ps suite platform for their tv which will be hardware nuetral as well as playable on the ps4..

    ps suite android + ps vita = touchscreen casual gaming with optional traditional button support
    hdtv google tv + ps4 = camera-based casual gaming with optional move support..

    my point is, ps suite has the potential to be a cash cow for sony in the future..
     
  2. Rangers

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    Hasn't PS Suite been pretty lackluster? Seems like a big leap of confidence to see it churning huge profits in 2-3 years.
     
  3. IllusionistK

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    Xbox Live doesn't even rake in $3bln/year.

    Perhaps by PS suite they mean Playstation as a whole(Hardware+Software)
     
  4. ergem

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    It is yet to be released, it was only recently released for open beta. Though I agree Sony must execute faster than the current rate, but the potential is still there.

    Sony has the games to challenge the popular titles on smartphones with their own casual games like patapon, loco roco and echochrome, and of course their thousands of ps1 back catalog.

    edit: let find the quote i'm not too sure now..

    edit2: i find it hard to quote the article, i'm only using my ipad.. but i found one article regarding the psn purportedly to gain 3 billion sales.. http://news.softpedia.com/news/Kaz-Hirai-Admits-PlayStation-Network-Is-in-the-Red-174951.shtml
     
    #11304 ergem, Apr 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 12, 2012
  5. Rangers

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    Kaz saying it means little.

    For the purposes of this discussion, imo it's a decent indicator they're not going to go big time loss leading on PS4 hardware. Occams razor. I think there's some wiggle room there for others to argue against this reasoning, but it's still pretty likely.

    Not that I even dont think you cant build a nice, pitcairn class machine at a profit. Also, Sony projecting future profits is a fools errand anyway, they have been projecting a big turnaround every single year.
     
  6. Shifty Geezer

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    XBox Live is limited to the number of enabled devices.

    PSSuite is a software platform bringing 'PlayStation' to non-PlayStation hardware. If PSS sees wide adoption on Android phones (big if!), that's currently 250 million (?) Android devices and growing, plus who knows how many Google TVs. This forecast reckons 1 billion Android devices in five years. Sony would be wanting maybe $10 per Android device average to make their wished-for turnover. Perhaps $20-30 for higher end devices only.
     
  7. TheWretched

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    I don't see it that way... I think all options are open, depending on your viewpoint. Since the Playstation stuff is one of the few businesses at Sony that actually do make a profit, lowballing it might not be in Sonys best interest. On the other hand, pulling a Wii might be even better for Sony... I dunno.
     
  8. N2O

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    ^you know many non-Xbox hardware will get Xbox Live later this year right?actually it's already in many non-Xbox hardware if you include mobile phone
     
  9. 3dilettante

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    There were several areas of overreach with the PS3's development that probably won't happen with the PS4. At least some of what bled Sony during the early parts of this generation of consoles will have no need to be repeated.

    The Blu-ray roll out isn't happening twice, and that was a chunk of the early problems and costs.

    Cell was a technological curiousity that Sony and Toshiba (IBM not as much) saw filtering into a wide variety of electronic products, not just the PS3. This was part of the justification for the engineering effort, and a probably source for some of the design parameters from Sony and Toshiba that have turned out to be miscues.

    That's probably not going to happen again either. As a product, Cell has gotten its ass handed to it everywhere not inside a PS3.
    There were some probable overextensions in expanding production capability that Sony and Toshiba went through for this chip that added to costs.
    If the rumors are correct, Sony is going with the paradigm that beat it handily last time.

    The packaging and integration research is something that might be budgeted as a more global project. Unlike Cell, this is not a technical direction everybody else is avoiding, and it can save money in manufacturing from mobile to PC.
     
  10. hoho

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    Do you know how big of a player is WP on phone market? I'd be surprised if it doesn't die in next couple of years.
     
  11. McHuj

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    The problem for Sony is that it's hard to pull off a Wii. Yes, the Wii was cheap hardware, but that wasn't the only reason (or a big one imo) for it's success. It had Wii Sports and an new control mechanism that people loved. Does anyone think that Nintendo would have had the same success if the Wii didn't have motion controls and was just an upgrade to the Gamecube? I don't.

    If Sony doesn't provide an uber console that makes the core gamers drool and they decide to "Wii-it", they have to provide something else like the Wii did. Unfortunately, I don't see that capability at Sony to innovate that. Bundling Move or a stripped down Vita controller isn't going to cut it. I want the uber console from Sony.
     
  12. bgassassin

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    So I can blame you for all this "trouble" with MS then. :razz:

    I think those vocal devs were just being greedy and wanted more beyond what were targeted. The way it's starting to sound Sony and MS were in a staring contest with them. MS blinked (recent rumors that they are going "above and beyond" a normal jump) and Sony didn't even flinch. Early on I had heard it was possible Xbox 3 would be more powerful, but that was before IGN's 6670 rumor muddied the waters. Though I still trusted the person I heard that from over IGN's rumor.

    The way this GPU is sounding, that may end up being a push. :lol:

    4GB is seeming very unlikely IMO with PS4. Xbox 3 may be the only with 4GB. And if they do that without a density increase, I look forward to seeing how they pull that off.
     
  13. liolio

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    I use this one because there was no estimate for the 7xxx series.\
    It was the closest. Bart is bigger whereas 7850 are tinier on more expansive wafer.
    Same RAM amount (a bit slower for the 6850) still there must not be that much a difference between both cards. AS you pointed out RAM (gddr5) is pretty costly if anything and considering the statement from Nv and GF as well as slow launch for AMD part I would say that the 7850 is a bit more expansive.
    May come even when 28nm is master (for the chip alone). I suspect that early series cost a lot though.
     
  14. Shifty Geezer

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    Sure. What has that got to do with Live not making 3 billion a year now?
     
  15. N2O

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    you know iOS is big right?
    also,Windows 8


    because if PS suite can do it,XBL can do it either(no offense,just guess)
     
    #11315 N2O, Apr 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 12, 2012
  16. ergem

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    of course.. that's just projection on his part. But surely that would amount to the big chunk increase we see on this chart regarding Sony's "projected" profit margin.

    Whether hirai's expectation which we now can see reflected on that chart shall come to frution will depend on a lot of ifs. But it doesn't change the fact that Hirai has been quoted to believe that he sees the PSN to grow larger in the near future. It should be logical to believe that that previous prediction is being reflected on this chart.
     
  17. tunafish

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    iOS and android are the only smartphone platforms that are actually growing. All the new releases have managed to the WP7 is reduce the rate at which it's share is shrinking. It's still losing users, not just share.

    esr plots the comscore numbers (US-only, collected from the carriers, reliable numbers on the total amount of smartphones connected to the networks, as opposed to the amount of smartphones sold) nicely, and the mobile sector is rapidly turning into a two-horse race.

    http://www.catb.org/esr/comscore/
     
  18. Heinrich4

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    Again I'm agree with you largely, especially on the APUs are the costs in the option, but that this would be the way or most "correct" to withstand/resist competition from tablets,smartphones etc in a cycle of five or more years?

    I'm still thinking inside of my ignorance on the subject that may cpus "old" and Athlon II X4 customized (with some thweaks for consoles) and die shrink to 32nm,could be more interesting for their reliability,especially if they put something custom and with HD 5850 shrink at 28 nm (which dissipates "only" 151 watts under 40nm process) could offer more raw power (2.1 Tflops + Cpu) even if have any problems even with two memory controller (DDR3 and GDDR5 = 8 modules) for 4 GBs and still remain below 200 watts.

    Half off the subject ...many rumors about next gen console sdks have a A8-3850 with 400 SIMD / shaders / Stream Processors + HD 6670/480SPs (in general gives something like 5*ps360 shader power) ... maybe they are primary setting SDKs in early stages and in fact Sony and MS are targeting for next year twice the performance as developers wish (Crytech, ID / Carmack etc.),if not would be a tremendous disappointment to an "old" gamer as I see that the next generation will come with hardware lagged very much before launch.:cry:

    I'm still thinking ... on these Sdks and in the realm of pure speculation and foolish :oops:... and if they (sony and ms) are showing signs they intend to use APUs seems clear that they are focusing efforts on a 1.25 Tflops on same die or at least praying here they are counting performance addition 25/33% to reach something like 1.6/1.7 like they did in past with old sdks for ps360 (ps3 have cell with 2.4GHz early stages and x360 gpu Radeon 9800/10800 etc).

    (Sorry for so many "if","preaching" and crying is that I was just stunned despite suposedly efficience of APU see how sony and ms would be setting so low specs for the next generation ...:shock:)

    Edit:
    Kaveri
    http://news.softpedia.com/newsImage...Includes-Tamesh-Kabini-and-Kaveri-APUs-3.png/
    Athlon II review
    http://www.legitreviews.com/article/1297/1/

    About HD 5850:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_AMD_graphics_processing_units

    Edited 3 :

    This would be an issue that needs to be answered by the developers ... they would rather deal with a hardware "Athlon II X4" (could be another model) with 2GB DDR3 + Radeon HD 5850 with 1 or 2 GB GDDR5 with all its limitations in dealing with two memory buses latencies etc., but with 2+ TFlops more power or use an APU with all the supposed improvements and facilities(Cpu and gpu "talking" each other) bus on same unified die "on the fly" and 2GB GDDR5 etc etc,but only 1.25 Tflops rely on brute force?

    Why i'm ask this? Cause sony (and probably MS) suposedly would be spending a lot of resources in PS4 (heard sometthing like US$1 billion around this years) and wants make life easier for developers (like psvita development model).
     
    #11318 Heinrich4, Apr 12, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 12, 2012
  19. Shifty Geezer

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    No-one said otherwise. The topic had drifted onto how Sony could make $3 billion when Live! currently can't. One significant advantage of Sony over MS though is that they aren't tied to an OS. They can release Sony content on Android devices, or Windows. But this is all going OT. The only particular relevance I see is confirmation that Sony would like a hardware platform that's a good fit for their software platform, hence either ARM or x86, and a normal GPU.
     
  20. N2O

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    actually i mean iOS have Xbox Live,even it only have very few feature right now


    what MS really tied just Windows(because it's dominant),but they don't tied WP because it still doesn't have enough big market
     
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