Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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I think the WiiU makes sense. It won't necessarily succeed but there's a solid line of reasoning behind it.

Nintendo don't need to break even with the WiiU, they need to start with the potential for decent margins and give themselves room to cut as needed (like with the 3DS and the Wii) without bleeding heavily or at all. And they can't afford to wait 3 years for a shrink that may or may not occur and/or be financially viable before having a system that is a) cheap enough to reposition in the market and b) quiet enough and small enough to be desirable across the board (and not just for nerds and menchildren).

That's why you won't find a $150 PC GPU in there, or copper vapo chamber cooler stretching the entire length of the console, or vast banks of GDDR5. You'll find a system that looks like something Microsoft or Sony would spend years trying to desperately engineer their way towards.

If WiiU works Nintendo won't need hi-powered hardware. If it doesn't, hi-powered hardware will only limit their room to maneuver and sink them faster. Hooray for Nintendo, and good luck to them.

 

[Acert93]

Based on the unsubstantiated rumor of a 16 "core" IBM processor in the Xbox 3 I started a thread to look at the POWER7 architecture and an optimistic effort to see if it could be cut down to console specs. Not really a prediction so I didn't post it here, but worthy of some discussion.

 

[kalelovil]

An easy one: Form Factor. If the WiiU is the size of the Wii, or smaller, you cannot fit in hot chips. I know someone was trying to compare the iPad chips in another thread but you are looking at chips created on a LP process designed with a nominal TDP regardless of their size (~160mm^2--size isn't everything as they chips are very slow for that size!) If the WiiU is going with a very small form factor you have to make a choice. I think (?) Teasy and someone else had a sig war, one with "Fast, Small, Affordable: You can pick 2." There is some truth to this. If Nintendo wants Small and Affordable it comes at the cost of being Fast.

We already know the dimensions of the Wii U display models: http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/40405/wii-u-vs-nintendo-wii

As I've said in another thread, the volume of the Wii U is only 20% less than an ASRock Core 100HT nettop (http://www.legionhardware.com/articles_pages/asrock_core_100ht_nettop,3.html), 2.06L vs. 2.5L, and that has to fit in a 2.5" harddrive, many more external ports, and be built with user servicing in mind.

I don't think it would be a particularly difficult task for Nintendo to fit componentry with a total TDP of 70W into the Wii U enclosure and without needing an elaborate cooling system.

 

[Acert93]

From your link:

Wii

The original Wii was the smallest console Nintendo had ever made. At just 159 x 44 x 216mm it was designed to fit into a bookcase or be tucked away under the television. Nintendo went for an all-white approach the first time around and that helped it exist incognito in any sitting room.
Wii U

This shiny white look has been kept up with the Wii U which is 172 x 45 x 266 mm in size. Pretty small then, but a touch bigger current-gen Wii size.

This a more direct comparison as the Wii and WiiU are aiming at the same market conditions (e.g. part of an entertainment center or possibly on carpet, etc). And while the WiiU is larger what is not know is the airflow design.

Remember, the Wii was using hardware in 2006 that was essentially a revision from 2001--this during a time period where we saw huge movement in node reduction and frequencies (e.g. the Xbox had a 733MHz CPU and 200MHz GPU and the 360 had a 3.2GHz CPU and 500MHz GPU). Not only was the Wii's TDP low but the thermal limits on the chips were pretty high. Not all chips tolerate heat as well--I have seen GPUs die at 60 degrees and other that operate fine at 80 degrees.

Anyways, the AMD GPU someone was linking too is far and above what was in the Wii in terms of power and heat. I am not saying it is impossible, only that it isn't a "bottleneck" that is easily overlooked. Just saying, "Hey, ASRock has a small enclosure" doesn't mean it is a workable solution for a console that has to be on for 4-5 hours a day at peak load 7 days a week with a failure rate less than 2% during first year of service.

 

[kalelovil]

From your link:

The Wii's size was limited by the dimensions of its disc drive, have a look at any of the disassembly videos, so its not a fair comparison. It's main circuit board is rather barren.

If we want to take the comparison to its logical extreme, some of those USB thumbstick computers which have become popular are more powerful than the original Wii in a small fraction of its size.

This a more direct comparison as the Wii and WiiU are aiming at the same market conditions (e.g. part of an entertainment center or possibly on carpet, etc). And while the WiiU is larger what is not know is the airflow design.

So is the ASRock Core 100HT. It's a small HTPC designed for quiet operation in an entertainment centre.

Not only was the Wii's TDP low but the thermal limits on the chips were pretty high. Not all chips tolerate heat as well--I have seen GPUs die at 60 degrees and other that operate fine at 80 degrees.

AFAIK the Radeon e6760 is designed for an operating temperature of up to 85 degrees C.
I've never known a GPU to die at only 60 degrees C. That would have to be a rather unconventional or poorly designed GPU, or the temperature reading was incorrect.

Just saying, "Hey, ASRock has a small enclosure" doesn't mean it is a workable solution for a console that has to be on for 4-5 hours a day at peak load 7 days a week with a failure rate less than 2% during first year of service.

ASRock would likely not be selling that if it couldn't do what you say.
And that ASRock htpc is not the only one of its kind, there are a few other manufacturers of similar small HTPCs with 70-100W power adaptors.

 

[AlNom]

I don't think it would be a particularly difficult task for Nintendo to fit componentry with a total TDP of 70W into the Wii U enclosure and without needing an elaborate cooling system.

Are you basing that on anything? Doubling the TDP just because there is no 2.5" HDD is kind of stretching the imagination. There's a 35W TDP recommended limit for the unit, and that's pretty much covering the CPU (integrated GPU)...

I also don't see what lots more external ports has to do with anything.

 

[kalelovil]

Are you basing that on anything? Doubling the TDP just because there is no 2.5" HDD is kind of stretching the imagination. There's a 35W TDP recommended limit for the unit, and that's pretty much covering the CPU (integrated GPU)...

I also don't see what lots more external ports has to do with anything.

As I have already said, look at the ASRock Core 100HT. That has a 90W power adaptor and yet is only 20% larger than the Wii U, despite having to fit a 2.5" hard drive and allow user servicing.

Or the 2011 Mac Mini. 2.7Ghz dual core, 4GB of RAM, a 500GB hard drive and a Radeon 6630m in an enclosure 35% smaller than the Nintendo Wii U. Sure, it doesn't have a disc drive but it does have an internal power adaptor which is a much greater source of heat.
The Nintendo Wii U only has to be half as efficiency as the Mac Mini at managing heat within a small enclosed space.

 

[AlphaWolf]

So how fast would a 40mm fan (like what will fit in a WiiU) have to turn to move the same amount of air as the much larger fan in that ASRock unit? You need to look at more than just the total volume of the unit, there are DTR laptops with a smaller volume, but that doesn't mean the WiiU will be using anything akin to the parts in those units either.

 

[kalelovil]

So how fast would a 40mm fan (like what will fit in a WiiU) have to turn to move the same amount of air as the much larger fan in that ASRock unit? You need to look at more than just the total volume of the unit, there are DTR laptops with a smaller volume, but that doesn't mean the WiiU will be using anything akin to the parts in those units either.

The Wii U will be standing 2 metres or so away from the user, so it is acceptable to have a system which is a bit louder than a nettop or laptop.

I don't own a modern console myself, so out of fan noise and disc drive noise which is usually the loudest (since the Wii U won't be using hard drive installations)? The Xbox360 had a really grating disc drive noise from what I hear but it didn't stop a lot of people buying it (not that I expect the Nintendo Wii U will be that loud).

 

[nomad]

As I have already said, look at the ASRock Core 100HT. That has a 90W power adaptor and yet is only 20% larger than the Wii U, despite having to fit a 2.5" hard drive and allow user servicing.

Or the 2011 Mac Mini. 2.7Ghz dual core, 4GB of RAM, a 500GB hard drive and a Radeon 6630m in an enclosure 35% smaller than the Nintendo Wii U. Sure, it doesn't have a disc drive but it does have an internal power adaptor which is a much greater source of heat.
The Nintendo Wii U only has to be half as efficiency as the Mac Mini at managing heat within a small enclosed space.

Keep in mind that most power adapters and power supplys are designed to provides more peak power than what a device actually consumes. They are less efficient at near maximum watt and would most likely fail due to over heating.

In the link you provide, power consumption was 53W total in during the stress test. The CPU temp was measured at 73C.

Look here x360 Jasper consumes around 100+ but it comes with a 150W power supply. The "newer" Valhalla ~90W machine.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/3774/welcome-to-valhalla-inside-the-new-250gb-xbox-360-slim/3

Imo, 35W is a bit low for Wii's case, but if it's just for the cpu+gpu+and maybe ram then i think it's reasonable.

 

[liolio]

I think the WiiU makes sense. It won't necessarily succeed but there's a solid line of reasoning behind it.

Indeed, the WiiUmote is imho a great idea.

Nintendo don't need to break even with the WiiU, they need to start with the potential for decent margins and give themselves room to cut as needed (like with the 3DS and the Wii) without bleeding heavily or at all. And they can't afford to wait 3 years for a shrink that may or may not occur and/or be financially viable before having a system that is a) cheap enough to reposition in the market and b) quiet enough and small enough to be desirable across the board (and not just for nerds and menchildren).

Agreed. Nintendo is doing a pretty risky move with the Wuumote as the selling point, and more power to leverage existing peripheral (wiimote+, balance board, etc.).

That's why you won't find a $150 PC GPU in there, or copper vapo chamber cooler stretching the entire length of the console, or vast banks of GDDR5. You'll find a system that looks like something Microsoft or Sony would spend years trying to desperately engineer their way towards.

I don't think so. Ms and Sony are "bending" the market and people expectation 9as well as competition) by subsidizing their hardware a lot. But I see no reason to state that they would not be able to put something together for cheap.

If WiiU works Nintendo won't need hi-powered hardware. If it doesn't, hi-powered hardware will only limit their room to maneuver and sink them faster. Hooray for Nintendo, and good luck to them.

Agreed the minimum is to be up there with the ps360, new system may launch starting 2013 nit everybody will jump in the next gen train within the first year(s). They need to be up there with the ps360 so they get ports.
IF they could have been in between this gen and the next one it would have been interesting for them, it looks like it won't be possible for them.

Still I will have a hard time finding them excuses for not flat out beating nowadays consoles. It's simply too easily done. Even within severe power constrain.

When I head about eDram, OoO, etc. I feel like Nintendo made the wrong bet, easy and efficient vs raw power. The ps360 are not easily dealt with, but they are well know now, Nintendo simply had to align it-self on the easier going out of the two ie the 360.

I said earlier a power a2 module at 2.3/2.4GHz speed would allow really easy port for the 360.
According to IBM papers a POWER EN (complete chip) @2.3GHz consume 85W.
According to the same paper a module consumes 10% of that power so 8.5 W.

I can't find proper data for the hd4670 so use AMD one for the HD5570.
@650mhz AMD state that the worse case scenario for the card is 39Watts, sounds in line with gurur3d measurements (using ddr3)
At the end of the spectrum there is the hd5670 consumes 58 Watts (guru3d again).
The GPU figure include the ram, memory controller, etc. That respectively for GPu running @ 650Mhz and 775MHz

If you put a hd 5670 and a power a2 module stock on a SoC, the system will pull north of 70 watts (gpu @7750 MHz +gdd5 1000Mhz).

Down clock the GPU below 500Mhz, the ram to 800 MHz and I' m confident that you would end up with something ~ 40Watts (SoC+RAM) without having to rely on high binning parts (see here those selected parts runs at higher clocks).

To cool such a thing is cheap (especially as it include the RAM).

It can be made, it's cheap. Let see what Nintendo comes with I'm not sure it will be cheaper more that they would have put the focus on the wrong spot.

Edit
I didn"t state it expressly but I would expect the system has I describe it to beat the ps360 and we would not hear noise about the system not being on par and Nintendo representative doing damage control.
The Cpu would beat Xenon in perfs.
Gpu would beat xenos.
It would have less bandwidth the xenos for rendering nut way more than the ps3 and with way more efficient ROPs.
For ram 768MB would do the trick.

 

[liolio]

Keep in mind that most power adapters and power supplys are designed to provides more peak power than what a device actually consumes. They are less efficient at near maximum watt and would most likely fail due to over heating.

In the link you provide, power consumption was 53W total in during the stress test. The CPU temp was measured at 73C.

Look here x360 Jasper consumes around 100+ but it comes with a 150W power supply. The "newer" Valhalla ~90W machine.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/3774/welcome-to-valhalla-inside-the-new-250gb-xbox-360-slim/3

Imo, 35W is a bit low for Wii's case, but if it's just for the cpu+gpu+and maybe ram then i think it's reasonable.

My belief is that valhalla and so the 360 power consumption after multiple shrinks is a testament to bad design choice, ie pushing clocks too high.

When it is all said and done MS may have gone with a bigger chips running slower. In the end the cost for making xenos 4 cores and 4 Simd for xenos both running at slower speed may have been dwarfed by the benefits.

 

[DoctorFouad]

Indeed, the WiiUmote is imho a great idea.

Agreed. Nintendo is doing a pretty risky move with the Wuumote as the selling point, and more power to leverage existing peripheral (wiimote+, balance board, etc.).

I don't think so. Ms and Sony are "bending" the market and people expectation 9as well as competition) by subsidizing their hardware a lot. But I see no reason to state that they would not be able to put something together for cheap.

Agreed the minimum is to be up there with the ps360, new system may launch starting 2013 nit everybody will jump in the next gen train within the first year(s). They need to be up there with the ps360 so they get ports.
IF they could have been in between this gen and the next one it would have been interesting for them, it looks like it won't be possible for them.

Still I will have a hard time finding them excuses for not flat out beating nowadays consoles. It's simply too easily done. Even within severe power constrain.

When I head about eDram, OoO, etc. I feel like Nintendo made the wrong bet, easy and efficient vs raw power. The ps360 are not easily dealt with, but they are well know now, Nintendo simply had to align it-self on the easier going out of the two ie the 360.

I said earlier a power a2 module at 2.3/2.4GHz speed would allow really easy port for the 360.
According to IBM papers a POWER EN (complete chip) @2.3GHz consume 85W.
According to the same paper a module consumes 10% of that power so 8.5 W.

I can't find proper data for the hd4670 so use AMD one for the HD5570.
@650mhz AMD state that the worse case scenario for the card is 39Watts, sounds in line with gurur3d measurements (using ddr3)
At the end of the spectrum there is the hd5670 consumes 58 Watts (guru3d again).
The GPU figure include the ram, memory controller, etc. That respectively for GPu running @ 650Mhz and 775MHz

If you put a hd 5670 and a power a2 module stock on a SoC, the system will pull north of 70 watts (gpu @7750 MHz +gdd5 1000Mhz).

Down clock the GPU below 500Mhz, the ram to 800 MHz and I' m confident that you would end up with something ~ 40Watts (SoC+RAM) without having to rely on high binning parts (see here those selected parts runs at higher clocks).

To cool such a thing is cheap (especially as it include the RAM).

It can be made, it's cheap. Let see what Nintendo comes with I'm not sure it will be cheaper more that they would have put the focus on the wrong spot.

Edit
I didn"t state it expressly but I would expect the system has I describe it to beat the ps360 and we would not hear noise about the system not being on par and Nintendo representative doing damage control.
The Cpu would beat Xenon in perfs.
Gpu would beat xenos.
It would have less bandwidth the xenos for rendering nut way more than the ps3 and with way more efficient ROPs.
For ram 768MB would do the trick.

I am pretty sure Nintendo wil suprise you and come up with an architucture a lot less powerful than what you are describing but a lot more efficient and especially a lot cheaper to produce. since GC Nintendo become genius in inctroducing day 1 efficient profit making hardware. people were comparing GC performance wth that of xbox1, but xbox1 was more expansive and loss making for microsoft, the GC was less expansive and day1 profit making....

I predict WiiU would have the same power of ps360 but be a lot cheaper to produce than the ps3 slim or the new slim 360; and that is genius in hardware design ! we will see how nintendo will do it.

I think this is the priority for Nintendo : produce a same level of performance ps360 hardware but the cheapest possible way.

if anyone in this forum could bare this challenge better than nintendo engineers, let him show us !

 

[AlphaWolf]

The Wii U will be standing 2 metres or so away from the user, so it is acceptable to have a system which is a bit louder than a nettop or laptop.

I don't own a modern console myself, so out of fan noise and disc drive noise which is usually the loudest (since the Wii U won't be using hard drive installations)? The Xbox360 had a really grating disc drive noise from what I hear but it didn't stop a lot of people buying it (not that I expect the Nintendo Wii U will be that loud).

ya well, that 40mm fan is probably going to have turn 3 to 4x as fast to move the same amount of air. It's not just going to be a bit louder, it's going to sound like a jet airplane if it needs to provide the same amount of cooling as a 60mm fan.

 

[kalelovil]

ya well, that 40mm fan is probably going to have turn 3 to 4x as fast to move the same amount of air. It's not just going to be a bit louder, it's going to sound like a jet airplane if it needs to provide the same amount of cooling as a 60mm fan.

I think you underestimate what a single 40mm x 20mm fan can achieve in a customised layout with not consideration for user access.


We simply don't know enough about the console to reach a conclusion on how much heat it can safely dissipate.

We know at least the prototype has a single 40mm fan at the back and some vents along the left side. We don't know if there are any other fans, on the bottom for instance or on an internal heatsink. We don't know how substantial the heatsinks are, whether some of them are copper, whether they have heatpipes, or how the airflow is affected by the internal layout.

One could argue the other way, and say that the vents on the side show that the Wii U is going to have considerably higher power use (because Nintendo would try to hide them and preserve the sleek lines if they could), and the fact it lies horizontally suggests it has a large vent or fan on its underside (placed there so it is hidden from view).

 

[AlphaWolf]

I never underestimate math.

 

[BRiT]

I think you underestimate what a single 40mm x 20mm fan can achieve in a customised layout with not consideration for user access.

I think you drastically underestimate the noise a 40mm fan makes spinning over 4K RPMs.

 

[french toast]

As I have already said, look at the ASRock Core 100HT. That has a 90W power adaptor and yet is only 20% larger than the Wii U, despite having to fit a 2.5" hard drive and allow user servicing.

Or the 2011 Mac Mini. 2.7Ghz dual core, 4GB of RAM, a 500GB hard drive and a Radeon 6630m in an enclosure 35% smaller than the Nintendo Wii U. Sure, it doesn't have a disc drive but it does have an internal power adaptor which is a much greater source of heat.
The Nintendo Wii U only has to be half as efficiency as the Mac Mini at managing heat within a small enclosed space.

Finally someone talking with some common sense...just take that mac mini...you seriously telling me they couldn't take out that 500gb HDD, put power adaptor on the outside ala xbox...increase the size 35%.....jeez...that wouldn't be exactly hard to do now would it...add another year to design the thing, as well as access to custom designed parts, that would be way more effeicient than off the shelp pc components and its not really hard to create a console thats at least 2-3x the power of current gen..

Lets put things into perspective....the xbox 360 had 3 IN ORDER cpus running @3.2hgz with SMT. a gpu that is now approaching IGP grade..that means...8 ROPS..16TMU's...22.6gb/s bandwidth, only 512 ram, 240 first gen SP pushing a paltry 240GFLOPS...SM3.0 class...DX9.0C...seriously people wake up

1 quad core OoO PPC with 2x SMT...@ 2.5ghz 4mb cache..
2 GB GDDR5 unified...
1 AMD HD 5570 @ 1gz....
60 GB HDD...
Someone on here tell me they could put that into Wii U case that bigger than that MAC mini??

EDIT; all the above in an SOC design..easilly doable in 2012...easy.

Or..you could go one better..for that form factor it make no semse to go AMD/PPC......if your looking for only 2x power of 360..you could go Cortex A15's +IMG TECH Rogue multi core/clusters...it would thrash an xbox360..AND be more power efficient than any other architecture to fit in a little box.

 

[novcze]

With all this talk from Sony about SoC and AMD with their APU and GPGPU stuff ... I have few uninformed questions:
Is it possible to use GPU cores to emulate SPUs from Cell?
And how crazy idea is to have APU + GPU with some sort of asymmetrical CrossFire from AMD?

 

[Brad Grenz]

1, unlikely.
2, already being done on PC.