Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Gubbi]

Consumers will want that their new media hub is able to play BD movies

Consumers don't want to pay for hardware (and software licenses) they are not going to use. I never watched a DVD on my PS2, I had the DVD kit for the original XBOX and watched one movie on it. I have never watched a DVD on my 360. I haven't bought a physical disc in 1½ year, all the while having rented 50+ movies from various video on demand services.

Physical media is in decline, even as BluRay is overtaking DVDs. On top of that you have Microsoft wanting to push their own online media service, Zune. You've also got NetFlix.

Now, they may have a SKU with BluRay support, or have a SKU with an optical drive, which physically supports BluRay, where you purchase the necessary codecs/licenses on their app Market to get BR support.

Cheers

 

[fehu]

I don't know from where are you form, but I assure you that the world has different tastes compared to usa

 

[Gubbi]

I don't know from where are you form, but I assure you that the world has different tastes compared to usa

I live in Europe.

Cheers

 

[Prophecy2k]

Consumers don't want to pay for hardware (and software licenses) they are not going to use. I never watched a DVD on my PS2, I had the DVD kit for the original XBOX and watched one movie on it. I have never watched a DVD on my 360. I haven't bought a physical disc in 1½ year, all the while having rented 50+ movies from various video on demand services.

Physical media is in decline, even as BluRay is overtaking DVDs. On top of that you have Microsoft wanting to push their own online media service, Zune. You've also got NetFlix.

Now, they may have a SKU with BluRay support, or have a SKU with an optical drive, which physically supports BluRay, where you purchase the necessary codecs/licenses on their app Market to get BR support.

Cheers

My PS2 was my primary DVD player. I had a huge catalogue of DVDs and enjoyed them on both my PS2 as well as PS3. I also use my PS3 as my primary BluRay player and as I have a LoveFilm subscription i find it a very cost effective way to consume "true" HD movie and video content, as opposed to the shitty streaming quality I get in my apartment that cuts out often, interrupting my movie mid-stream on my shitty internet connection.

I live in London.

There's most likely more people in the world like me than there are like you Gubbi, and i'd be willing to bet real money on that.

 

[Gubbi]

There's most likely more people in the world like me than there are like you Gubbi, and i'd be willing to bet real money on that.

Real money ?

Compare the outlook for Blockbuster to the outlook for iTunes, Zune, NetFlix, Vudu and others.

Oh, and I have a DVD player, one that plays my SACDs too, - another dead physical format.

Cheers

 

[Blazkowicz]

netflix and hulu are US only I think, over there VoD certainly exists but it's like providers are islands, each with their limited content.

I'm like, if I pay for it then I might as well have a disc that they can't take away from me. blu ray has competition though, mainly from DVD. DVD are decent and already have better-than-CD sound quality which means you already need a good sounding room and good speakers to take advantage of it.
DVD can also be read everywhere.

of course everyone does torrented divx. I watched more divx ran on a projector than blu ray (never, except a demo disc in a store, full of compression artifacts and with too much sharpening filter. it was pointless)

 

[Acert93]

Carts are more expensive. Also I want my nextgen console to at least have a disc drive for my countless blu-rays.

That probably means you already have a Blu Ray player as well.

I don't know from where are you form, but I assure you that the world has different tastes compared to usa

I live in the US (Seattle) and my habits are similar to Gubbis. We consume much more digitally downloadable media than DVD and deliberately chose to forgo yet another optical format library.

 

[wco81]

Optical media co-exists with digital media. Most Blu-Ray players come with Netflix, Hulu, etc. nowadays.

Apple just announced 1080p movies in their store this week, to accompany a 1080p AppleTV box. But the HD movies are around $20, or about the price of Blu-Rays which will have better picture and sound quality, not to mention additional content.

Sony has Blu-Ray players which will up convert to 4K. Apparently we will get 4K displays at some point and if content does migrate to 4K over time, the digital download/streaming formats are going to be very inadequate for this material.

Yes there is no installed-base of 4k displays or content. But back in 2006, people were saying the same thing about 1080p displays and content too.

The only products which can get away with digital media instead of optical are smart phones and tablets, so mobile devices may ultimately lead to the demise of optical media. But can game consoles get away with not having optical media? Only if they're willing to drastically drop the price of the content. After all, they would have no manufacturing and distribution costs with digital media or having to share margins with wholesalers and retailers.

Of course, retailers may not be inclined to sell consoles if you don't give them a chance to make money by selling games.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Real money ?

Compare the outlook for Blockbuster to the outlook for iTunes, Zune, NetFlix, Vudu and others.

Oh, and I have a DVD player, one that plays my SACDs too, - another dead physical format.

Cheers

People are certainly consuming more DD media. I'm not in disagreement with you there.

However, if you look at the sales of DVDs, BRs and rental numbers for disc based content, they're slowing but not significantly enough to render them negliable by the end of next-gen.

There's also the point I was making that many many people ALREADY have physical disc collections, which they're not prepared or inclined to buy again. Those who play games will likely use their console as the primary device for viewing such content, simply because its more convienient to not have to have multiple boxes under the TV.

If the next-gen consoles want to be relevant multi-media devices as well as gaming boxes, then I would certianly consider the ability to play back legacy physical media content as a boon. Better to have more options than less don't you think?

Edit:
Also, your blockbuster comparison is moot, because they failed more because of mismanagement and an inability to provide a flexible enough service. You only need to look at the growth and success of rental outlets like LoveFilm/Netflix/Redbox to see how movie/TV rental business models that have adapted to the changing times can suceed.

Trying to intimate the irrelevancy of physical movie/TV media due to the success of DD platforms alone, is disingenuous, as you're only giving half the story.

 

[Gubbi]

There's also the point I was making that many many people ALREADY have physical disc collections, which they're not prepared or inclined to buy again. Those who play games will likely use their console as the primary device for viewing such content, simply because its more convienient to not have to have multiple boxes under the TV.

I too, have a large collection of physical media, around 250 CDs and 200 DVDs. Of all my DVD movies, there are only a dozen or so I wanted to see more than once: Team America, Shaun of the Dead, The Bourne trilogy, LOTR, Blade Runner and Dr. Strangelove. Most movies are just forgettable crap; did I rent Thor ? Hell yes, do I ever want to see it again, hell no.

If the next-gen consoles want to be relevant multi-media devices as well as gaming boxes, then I would certianly consider the ability to play back legacy physical media content as a boon. Better to have more options than less don't you think?

Microsoft will want to sell a device that increases their revenue. Selling movies through Zune does that for them. Adding BluRay support costs them money: They need to support a media player, and they pay their main competitor in the console space for every console sold.

.... as you're only giving half the story.

So are you. You pretend that BluRay support has the same relevance as DVD support had 5-10 years ago. BluRay media sales in the U.S. are still only around 50-60% that of DVD. Forecasts predict that in 2015 BR is going to have 30% of the total market, DVD 15%, with the rest being DD and VOD. Compare the 30% to the almost complete dominance of DVD in 2005 (>95%).

Cheers

 

[DieH@rd]

After Crytek, DICE is also dreaming about 8GB of ram in nextgen consoles.
http://www.joystiq.com/2012/03/09/battlefield-3s-rendering-architect-details-his-dream-specs-for/

During the Game Developer's Choice awards, DICE took home the prize of "Best Technology" for its Frostbite 2 engine. After accepting the award on behalf of his team, we asked DICE rendering architect Johan Andersson what the next generation of consoles would need to include for Frostbite 2 to work 'perfectly and as intended on high-end PCs.' To Andersson, the answer is "pretty easy to answer."

"There's two things: memory and processing power," he said. "We need lots and lots of processing power. The more you can cram into a machine, we'll take advantage of that." While 'more power' is the obvious answer -- both on the CPU and GPU side -- we wondered what wouldn't be 'enough' to work with.

"Two gigabytes would not be enough when it comes to RAM [random access memory]" Andersson said. "Four gigabytes would work. Eight gigabytes? Yeah. I think that would be perfect when it comes to memory."

 

[AlNom]

Welp, you're not gonna get that with GDDR5 anytime soon.

A 512-bit DDR3 bus would be needed to get anywhere near the same bandwidth league (still shit). DDR4 is going to be pretty low bandwidth initially as well, but at least you'll have stacking options to more easily hit 8GB.

 

[Acert93]

Who says all your memory has to be your high-bandwidth memory pool

 

[AlNom]

Split memory pools are horrible. They don't make much sense for a fusion chip anyway, and they can needlessly complicate separate CPU/GPU setups on the motherboard. I was trying to make a case for eDRAM indirectly.

 

[AlphaWolf]

So are you. You pretend that BluRay support has the same relevance as DVD support had 5-10 years ago. BluRay media sales in the U.S. are still only around 50-60% that of DVD. Forecasts predict that in 2015 BR is going to have 30% of the total market, DVD 15%, with the rest being DD and VOD. Compare the 30% to the almost complete dominance of DVD in 2005 (>95%)

You are being overly generous to BRD, which accounts for 20-25% of physical media sales in the US.

I expect the majority of people who want physical media playback have a device other than a console which can provide that. I doubt most people would pay an extra $10 to cover the license fees if given the option, but if there's as much interest as people suggest an addon would make sense rather than forcing those who don't want the feature to pay for it.

 

[AlNom]

Shouldn't it just be a software license you download? The only reason Xbox 1 had an adapter was for IR remote. That's not a problem since the standardization of wireless controllers.

I think I'd rather have the option as well, since I'm not getting rid of my PS3 (until it dies magically).

 

[AlphaWolf]

Shouldn't it just be a software license you download? Times have changed since 2001 (i.e. Xbox DVD adapter)

If you don't include an optical drive, it would need to be an addon.

 

[AlNom]

If you don't include an optical drive, it would need to be an addon.

Ah I see. Didn't realize the context.

 

[Acert93]

Split memory pools are horrible. They don't make much sense for a fusion chip anyway, and they can needlessly complicate separate CPU/GPU setups on the motherboard. I was trying to make a case for eDRAM indirectly.

eDRAM counts as a high-bandwidth memory pool if you go with a more of an eDRAM scratchpad (think L3) instead of a Xenos

 

[hoho]

Split memory pools are horrible.

So how did you like the latency from CPU to RAM and back in XB360?