Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Ninjaprime]

Using this formula (tdp*(ocmhz / stock mhz)*(oc vcore/stockvcore)^2

http://www.ehow.com/how_6402697_calculate-cpu-wattage.html

and this underclocked voltage of .93v (stock 1.18):
http://hardforum.com/showthread.php?p=1038311992#post1038311992

Applying a 700MHz clock, I get 118.52Watts.

Yeah, the calculation works, but you can't really take a random post from a random guy on a random board as the basis for how 10 million+ dies are going to run. Hell, even the info there is incomplete. .93 at what clock? What mem clock? Stock? Is that with at least 24 hrs testing in 3dmark or something so that its validated stable? The voltage of 1.18 stock isn't even reference voltage(he also says 1.175, not 1.18), so it must be an OC board that is higher binned. The voltages in his sig don't jive with the numbers he claims either. Tomshardware did a test with actual stability testing on 6970s, and as far as confirmed stable goes, the best they got was 1.1v at stock 890/1375 and 0.98v downclocked to 500/1375. Barely over a tenth of a volt, nearly clock dropped in half.

http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/radeon-power-consumption,2950-7.html

This is all besides the point, 10 million+ console chips aren't going to be tweaked and overclocked and undervolted to their limits. If anything, they are going to be more conservative than video card reference voltages/clocks to ensure low rate of failure.

 

[steampoweredgod]

If you cut the clocks in half and got down to 0.9v or 0.8v you might be in range for a console chip but at that point there are much better options open than using a large chip underclocked. Theres a reason no one takes a large chip and then underclocks it for lower end chips.

how does the card normally fall to 20W at 350Mhz by throttling while out of games? Do they in addition to throttling also shut down most of the chip or something?

As I were posting in the Threat opened by ERP about "next gen gameplay/graphic differentaitor" and realized that I want MS to plainly copy the WiiUmote.
The benefit are to good to pass.
There is the synergy for xbla games development between winphone 7/8, windows 8 and the xbox.
It's a strong differentiators if not from N obviously but from last gen.
It's a strong argument for parents as the TV can be freed whenever they wants.
It opens us the gameplay as touchscreen can emulate way more successfully some KB+mouse combo that a pad can. Touchscreen by it self opens up games to different game plays.
I would expect the thing to include camera and motion sensor which should give devs even more options.
Overall I believe that MS should make the thing standard. The rumors about a less than amazing system make the thing even more likely to me. Ms and Sony lagged behind Nintendo last gen, now MS is ahead in as far as motion sensing is concerned, I'm not sure they would want to let Nintendo any advantage.

Something I've wondered about is 3D. I find 3ds 3d effect nice but I'm not sold either. It's too tiny for me to have a proper opinion. Do you think it could be worse it to include this to a hypothetical WiiU mockup and the impact on production cost.

For ref there are (shitty)7" tablet that ship @75$
EDIT
Another ref "glassless" 3d on ipad 1&2:
EDIT2
I prefer the head tracking solution by a large amount.

I would prefer they simply add compatibility to win8 tablets/smartphones

kinect 2 with likely improved rez, response time and voice recognition would be a pretty killer interface.

 

[liolio]

You have to keep in mind the demographic.

For Nintendo, that is a big win, for Sony/MS, that's a big (fixed) cost for little benefit.

I think both PS4 and xb720 will be tablet "compatible", but they won't ship with one.

And what the demographic says?
Do we know where xbox owners play?
On which display they connect theirs systems?
We don't.
What we know is that Epic stated a while after GeoW2 release that a hefty percentage of people that played geow2 did it on a sdtv.
Young children, young teenagers, teenagers, young adults, even plain adult they are not allowed everywhere to spoil the main household TV. So they use what they have not that back it included quiet some sdtv. Being able to plug your system anywhere and to play it TV or not is a huge added value to anyone. Not every household has multiple proper HD TV, even in US.
I reiterate it had a lot of value for everyone especially for parents who can't always say "no" to their children/teenager/ wanting to play their last game now they have an option.

I can't see why this is a win for Nintendo and not for Sony and MS, it's convenience it has nothing to do with the "core/ casual" so called opposition. You will have a lot of work to convince me on that one especially if you look a bit further than the average middle class US suburbs.

 

[liolio]

I would prefer they simply add compatibility to win8 tablets/smartphones

Not exclusive but non standard device/option are usually forgotten fast.

kinect 2 with likely improved rez, response time and voice recognition would be a pretty killer interface.

By design kinect will introduce lag, for example like you have to complete your jump for it to make sure you jump. If you're relying on shape recognition, there is induced lag as you have to complete whatever sign before the device can recognize it. It's the same for words attack! is not too long still, imagine take cover and you want the system to get it properly. It's dead for any fast pace gameplay.
It won't replace a touch screen like a touchscreen is no substitute to a pad (still way closer). Kinect 2 will be a nice addiction that's sure but two years after release now it's clear what it got to core gamers and I can't see resolution changing that.

 

[steampoweredgod]

Not exclusive but non standard device/option are usually forgotten fast.

This is not some obscure peripheral, this is something that 90+% of the population will likely have.

At the very least for movie playback disney has integrated bluray functionality connectivity to apps via java. They'd have to go out of their way to break compatibility with future movies.

Microsoft will have an App marketplace/store, so it is covenient for them also.

By design kinect will introduce lag, for example like you have to complete your jump for it to make sure you jump. If you're relying on shape recognition, there is induced lag as you have to complete whatever sign before the device can recognize it.
It won't replace a touch screen like a touchscreen is no substitute to a pad (still way closer). Kinect 2 will be a nice addiction that's sure but two years after release now it's clear what it got to core gamers and I can't see resolution changing that.

Predictive algorithms, once you realize the direction of movement of objects you can react to that before the movement is done. I assume some similar predictive inference is done with regards to online network algorithms to deal with latency, or at least it seems so from some of the games I've played.

 

[TheChefO]

And what the demographic says?
Do we know where xbox owners play?
On which display they connect theirs systems?
We don't.
What we know is that Epic stated a while after GeoW2 release that a hefty percentage of people that played geow2 did it on a sdtv.
Young children, young teenagers, teenagers, young adults, even plain adult they are not allowed everywhere to spoil the main household TV. So they use what they have not that back it included quiet some sdtv. Being able to plug your system anywhere and to play it TV or not is a huge added value to anyone. Not every household has multiple proper HD TV, even in US.
I reiterate it had a lot of value for everyone especially for parents who can't always say "no" to their children/teenager/ wanting to play their last game now they have an option.

I can't see why this is a win for Nintendo and not for Sony and MS, it's convenience it has nothing to do with the "core/ casual" so called opposition. You will have a lot of work to convince me on that one especially if you look a bit further than the average middle class US suburbs.

If it were that important, we'd see that crowd choosing portables.

The idea isn't to reenforce the notion of "kids toy".

Those that want such a service, can have the console tap into a tablet (*that everyone will have*).

The reason it's a clear win for Nintendo should be obvious. Take a look at their games library, top selling games and contrast them with Sony/MS.

Top 5 sellers 2011 xb360/ps3 (non Kinect):
COD MW3
Gears 3
BF3
Skyrim
Fifa

Top 5 sellers 2011 Wii
Just Dance 3
Wii Sports
Mario Kart
Just Dance 2
Zumba Fitness


After compiling this, seems I underestimated the family/mom aspect for Wii. But I hit the nail on the head for best sellers on xb360/ps3. Those are M rated games aside from Fifa.

In general, it seems the tablet concept to "kick the kid off the TV" has been nullified perhaps due to them being kicked off onto a tablet or smartphone already, or by the kids already being on portables.

 

[TheChefO]

Kinect 2 will be a nice addiction that's sure but two years after release now it's clear what it got to core gamers and I can't see resolution changing that.

Higher res and lower lag will make all the difference in using Kinect for more than just a limited gimmick.

 

[liolio]

This is not some obscure peripheral, this is something that 90+% of the population will likely have.

At the very least for movie playback disney has integrated bluray functionality connectivity to apps via java. They'd have to go out of their way to break compatibility with future movies.

Microsoft will have an App marketplace/store, so it is convenient for them also.



Predictive algorithms, once you realize the direction of movement of objects you can react to that before the movement is done. I assume some similar predictive inference is done with regards to online network algorithms to deal with latency, or at least it seems so from some of the games I've played.

I don't agree with you on this I don't see MS allowing or tablets running other OS to interact in games like a WiiU controller. Then there are the controls which might not proved optimal either (less than optimal as games without standard will be developed for a plain pad).
I think that xbla games will run (at various quality setting) on every devices from winphone to pc via console and that MS may allow some cross play playing within those platform.

I'm not sure I get the part about the app store, by all intend and purpose the live is already an app store.

I definitively don't get the part on Disney.

For Kinect 2 let say I'm more than sceptic, I would enjoy proper head tracking as demonstrated in the video though other the other "natural uses" of the device.

 

[TheChefO]

Yeah, the calculation works, but you can't really take a random post from a random guy on a random board as the basis for how 10 million+ dies are going to run. Hell, even the info there is incomplete. .93 at what clock? What mem clock? Stock? Is that with at least 24 hrs testing in 3dmark or something so that its validated stable? The voltage of 1.18 stock isn't even reference voltage(he also says 1.175, not 1.18), so it must be an OC board that is higher binned. The voltages in his sig don't jive with the numbers he claims either. Tomshardware did a test with actual stability testing on 6970s, and as far as confirmed stable goes, the best they got was 1.1v at stock 890/1375 and 0.98v downclocked to 500/1375. Barely over a tenth of a volt, nearly clock dropped in half.

http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/radeon-power-consumption,2950-7.html

This is all besides the point, 10 million+ console chips aren't going to be tweaked and overclocked and undervolted to their limits. If anything, they are going to be more conservative than video card reference voltages/clocks to ensure low rate of failure.

Keep in mind, this is the first run off of a brand new 28nm process.

It will only get better with time.

 

[TheChefO]

I don't agree with you on this I don't see MS allowing or tablets running other OS to interact in games like a WiiU controller.

MS is already doing this (limited) integration with win7 phones... I have no doubt tablets will have integration with nextgen consoles.

 

[liolio]

If it were that important, we'd see that crowd choosing portables.

The idea isn't to reenforce the notion of "kids toy".

Those that want such a service, can have the console tap into a tablet (*that everyone will have*).

The reason it's a clear win for Nintendo should be obvious. Take a look at their games library, top selling games and contrast them with Sony/MS.

Top 5 sellers 2011 xb360/ps3 (non Kinect):
COD MW3
Gears 3
BF3
Skyrim
Fifa

Top 5 sellers 2011 Wii
Just Dance 3
Wii Sports
Mario Kart
Just Dance 2
Zumba Fitness


After compiling this, seems I underestimated the family/mom aspect. But I hit the nail on the head for best sellers on xb360/ps3. Those are M rated games aside from Fifa.

In general, it seems the tablet concept to "kick the kid off the TV" has been nullified perhaps due to them being kicked off onto a tablet or smartphone already, or by the kids already being on portables.

The WiiU controller is better use for N because games like just dance? Wii sport? Zuma fitness? The WiiU controller has way more use to core gamers than a wiimote or Kinect will ever have.
All the 360 best selling games would run nicely on the a WiiU controller just not on big hdtv (if the system is connected to a big hd tv mine for instance were not because the TV was not as available as I wished).

You're trying to make it sounds that having proper screen either as a substitute or to add-on for gameplay is casual, nintendo like, that's a biased and arbitrary argument.

I gave you sound arguments about the benefit of the dedicated screen you come with M rate games? Really like parents kicking children of the living room top play Geow on TV? Or young adult kicking the family out of the living to play geow? Doesn't make much sense to me.

You are assuming that every xbox owners have a dedicated playing room with big tv for it-self, etc. That's not true. In plenty of family main TV is scarce resource. Plenty of parents don't allow kids even teenagers to watch whatever they want whenever they want in their bed room so to have a tv in their room.

And the same is true for students who lack usually money and space. See the pub in US for a network operator were all the guys are on couch toying with laptops, phone slate, etc.. How a WiiU like controller would fare in the blend? Pretty well if students share a living room it's nice to be able to let the TV free if only one want to play whatever game on his console.

And speaking of young adults and adults, you believe that I a 36 year old is completely free to do whatever the fuck I want with the tv? For real? I've a wife man
I've no children either they would try to dictate the main TV usage, I would have to compromise. WiiUmote provide option instead of compromise.

Clearly this has nothing to do with casual vs core, it provide a clear service, can add to gameplay, can serve as a keyboard, allow nice mechanics possibly with stylus or finger closer to PC point and click in accuracy, etc.

I also find the option it gives relevant for MS living room domination plan. They want it in the living room connected with the household main TV, with Kinect as an enabler for convenient usage of services. Having the console usage not always conflicting with the TV usage somehow lowers the risk for the console to be plugged elsewhere (when the option is available). Not to mention one could use the thing as tablet to browse youtube, netflix if whoever spoiled the TV (ok one may use another device but without offering the option MS is sure to lose the network usage, especially as iOS and Android will prove tough to fight windows 8 running on slate or not).

Clearly I can accept the argument that it could make the system either too expansive within the range of performance you think MS targets. Or that it would imply for MS to lowers its targeted performances which you may thing is a risky business regarding what you think are the concerns of their user base but again considerations like casual vs core or kid vs adults are imho out of place.

 

[liolio]

MS is already doing this (limited) integration with win7 phones... I have no doubt tablets will have integration with nextgen consoles.

Well doing that for game that on a platform that has next to no traction is one thing but they are strong in the console realm.

I guess it depends on what one calls integration. For cross platform playing you might be right as long as they get you to pay the gold fee to do so (will dev be interested? that's another matter see minecraft).
And they could still try to leverage exclusive xbla running on all their platforms windows 8, winphones and xbox.
By the way what we're speaking here is basically an 'extra' as you would end playing with more than often games that are designed for touch screen play, or require a keyboard, etc. I'm not sold on it. It's more MS like to try to use the winphone, windows, live synergy to maintain its closed approach to network gaming.

But I can't see MS allowing any kind of hardware to ac like a WiiU. From a hardware POV it's unclear what the requirement would be for the communication. Then they should release an app to do so on the competing OS. They would not have complete control about how the thing would perform, the app would be "lost" in a an multi task environment with the associated hazard.
Ultimately I like touchscreen and motion sensing but it's not a perfect substitute to a pad, for some genre not even close (for some others way better), the WiiUmote whereas it includes a screen is a fully functional pad.

To me Nintendo came with something bright again (and looks like they are crippling it by the way....) and adopting their approach is foremost a matter of costs.

 

[jonabbey]

Shall we assume that Vita will fill that role for PS4? It is both a controller and a (small) tablet, after all.

 

[AlphaWolf]

You are assuming that every xbox owners have a dedicated playing room with big tv for it-self, etc. That's not true. In plenty of family main TV is scarce resource. Plenty of parents don't allow kids even teenagers to watch whatever they want whenever they want in their bed room so to have a tv in their room.

If that's true those same parents aren't going to allow those kids to have a wii:u or tablet or whatever device in their room, so it would offer no advantage. Or do you think any game they play on a Nintendo device would be fine, but games on Sony and MS devices restricted?

 

[snarfbot]

how much time does kinect spend processing the image, if it spends the majority of its time waiting for a new frame then increasing the framerate would be obv.

maybe just have 2 cameras next to each other for kinect 2.0. then they would be able to detect motion in 3 dimensions while simultaneously doubling the framerate, if the inputs are staggered by half a frame.

seems like a no brainer imo.

 

[liolio]

Shall we assume that Vita will fill that role for PS4? It is both a controller and a (small) tablet, after all.

Well the vita is powerful enough to cross play with the ps3 I guess it would be clever for them to maximize its utility looking forward.
Still not every body owns of Vita and not all the ps4 owners may want to buy one. Touchscreen and motion controls can add relevant usages to games but for devs to plan for it has to be standard. In the end I could see Sony having to ship '"something" with the ps4. The question is "could all PS4 sku include a PSV?"

I start to believe that Sony will launch last (like fall 2014) may be with a process as well as a technological (newer tech) advantage over both MS and Nintendo. By this time the PS Vita will be cheaper to produce ( using a cheaper screen could help with price). Using better tech and possibly newer lithography Sony may not have much trouble to match outperform its competitor while making room for a PSV. Still that sounds costly too me.

Overall I believe they should allow the PSV to act a WiiUmote but should still come with a WiiUmote of their own with low BOM and try to maximize their hardware to try to rally a lot of gamers around the most powerful system and their exclusives while still shipping at the same price as their competitor.

the value of the different system would be a bit like that:
Nintendo: cheapest hardware, lowest perf, strongest exclusives + WiiUmote + wiimotes+ + plenty of dedicated peripheral. => the casual system but way more rounded than the Wii which was basically a crippled gaming device for most gamers.

MS: decent hardware, best services platform, kinect 2, a WiiUMote like device. The do it all device, not the most powerful but with the most complete offering from hardware to services (especially in US). Really strong in US.

Sony: Best hardware, strong exclusives, WiiUmote/PSV. Give up on motion sensing to focus on core games and social/mobile games, strong services. Sony imho doesn't have what it takes to compete on the "do it all department" with MS. Depending on MS position they may adopt a more open position in regard to network policies and social gaming (via facebook and other means). Sony may consider jumping to ARM ISA to leverage existing strong software environment.

 

[liolio]

If that's true those same parents aren't going to allow those kids to have a wii:u or tablet or whatever device in their room, so it would offer no advantage. Or do you think any game they play on a Nintendo device would be fine, but games on Sony and MS devices restricted?

No what I mean if whenever the kid teenagers want to play and that the TV is used by another person, he can play on the WiiUmote most likely in the same room as range doesn't seem to be extraordinary under parents watch. It sounds like BS but I clearly see this as something you can sell to parents.
I as a teen could not play whenever I wanted because the TV was not available I would have happily accepted the option of playing SF2 or secret of Mana on a wiiUmote. I think it would still be true for many kids/teens. It's not only about parents it's also about convenience or the kid/teen.

Moving form kids and teen, I find my self connecting my 360 to monitor to free the TV for my wife, We have not much room like in many city I ended up with the disadvantage of PC (you play on a chair and a tinier screen) with the disadvantage of console lesser input for quiet some genres, lesser IQ. Hopefully I was still in the room as my wife, I like to have her around even if we do different stuffs.

I could see benefit for parents, imagine you have nice 4 years old hanging around you may not want them to see you cutting people in piece using a chainsaw on a 55" screen, right? (beware your answer ). When they are around you can play on your WiiUmote they can't see. You can have an eye on the when they toy in the living room, watching Disney (spoiling your TV...).

That's only for the convenience, I acknowledge it's still not a handled, still quiet an improvement. Ultimately mobile computing will take over, just not now.

Then there are gameplay. Lot of use for the touch screen and the secondary screen and possibly the camera (head tracking, augmented reality) as well as the motion sensing. It also open your platform to existing mobile gaming if you have open network gaming policies (iffy about MS changing in this regard for anything but the most popular apps, they still have XBLA games which can be straight forward ports from iOS & Android). Clearly the thing has more use in core and social games than either Kinect or other motion sensing devices.

 

[AlphaWolf]

It sounds like BS, because it is BS. And it certainly brings up the question, how do you play a game designed for the wii:u controller, when you're using it as the screen?

 

[liolio]

It sounds like BS, because it is BS. And it certainly brings up the question, how do you play a game designed for the wii:u controller, when you're using it as the screen?

It's not BS or maybe you never had to share anything, lucky you.

Same question goes for Nintendo If some game implement a sort second views (punctually either way there is no point playing on TV at all and you won't watch both the TV and the slate at the same time) they have to implement an switch on event or a touch to do so (that's what is nice with touch interface it's not as reactive or precise as button but highly configurable).
If you have to touch the screen, you touch the screen I guess.

Still I can imagine extreme usage that would make the thing problematic still that kind of things would not be possible at all without such a device so the choice is either a loss or a greater.

 

[Ninjaprime]

how does the card normally fall to 20W at 350Mhz by throttling while out of games? Do they in addition to throttling also shut down most of the chip or something?

Yeah, power gating, turns off parts of the chip, and also, in this case, the C in the calculation, capacitance, drops because most of the chip is idle and transistors are not switching.