Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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Yes, Thanks Barbarian, tunafish, and Mfa!

The question is, does anyone know or have reference to how much die area/transistors it would take to "add" OoOE (more likely borrow another OOE Power design) and how would that compare to higher thread count (4 instead of 2 per core) cpus and what would be the pros and cons of either approach?

The thing is, while the ROB takes up a bit of space, it doesn't add die area in the end. To reach the same amount of performance, your in-order design will be bigger and hotter; Needing much more on-die cache, and it will burn more energy in making critical paths as short latency as possible and utilize more aggresive prefetching of data (wasting power).

Compare IBMs in-order Power 6 to the out-of-order Power 7. The Power 6 had two cores on a 341 mm^2 65nm die, vs. Power 7 eight cores on a 567 mm^2 45nm die.

On a process normalized basis each P7 core is 20% smaller than it's P6 counterpart, all while being significantly faster in single thread processing. On top of that, P7 has 4-way SMT vs. two-way for P6 and absolutely crushes it on a per socket basis.

Cheers
 
I don't think Power6 was in order to save on transistors so much, but more to get higher clock speeds ... kind of a shame for a processor launching in a time when performance/Watt got so important.
 
Revisiting my belief on Cell being abandoned, a discussion about Xbox3 led me to seeing this.

First are some posts from BBoyDubC on GAF back in March.

BboyDubC said:
I have information that a next gen console will be debuting next fall. My company just got commissioned for making a next gen cpu for one of the console makers, and they need us to push it so they can make launch of next fall. Not going to disclose any more than that.

and

BboyDubC said:
Sorry to burst your bubble, but if you think any brand new CPU can be developed in 1 year, start to finish, you're beyond crazy. We've already been working on "this iteration" for a year and it was part of our existing roadmap, we just got called to pull in our dev schedule. Think I'm still under NDA with this....

In the same thread a poster dug up this old post of his from 2007.

BboyDubC said:
Ah yes, people with masters degrees working 17 hr a day jobs are lazy morons. You is smart. Anyone that says that devs are "lazy" just because they cant get the PS3 versions up to snuff with 360 need to STFU because they dont have a CLUE about programming, the industry, and how hard programmers have to work on their games (I work for AMD - ECE Masters - and also have a computer science minor - I've programmed an operating system and freakin know how intense it is even writing single threaded code. Multi threaded code is about 15 times as complicated at high levels.). You guys are just idiots sitting on your couch, wanting people to crap out your games without an inkling of an idea what it takes to produce it.

Not a very endearing person based on a couple of those posts. :p

Then in July this rumor article from HardOCP came out with this to say about the CPUs.

Nintendo looks to thoroughly entrenched in the IBM camp and using a new custom 45nm multi-core (most likely quad) processor. This one is fully cooked at this point.

It is highly likely that Microsoft's 3rd generation Xbox will be sporting a new IBM cell processor as well although it is slightly, ever so slightly possible, that this could change. It recent public statements Microsoft has also led us to believe that it may delay plans for the next generation Xbox for a an additional year or two due to the success of Kinect.

Looking towards the Sony PS4, we hear it is still unsettled between some kind of Bulldozer (would most likely be an APU) variant and a newer updated 32nm IBM cell processor. This one appears to have flip flopped back and forth a few times but it will likely firm up very soon.
Sony is the only one mentioned considering AMD although if they stay with them I'd be shocked it was still Bulldozer-based. So, PS4 in 2012?

I also forgot about this when I posted before so I guess Cell's demise was exaggerated on my part since if this is true then Xbox3 will at least most likely continue using PPEs.

It also talked about the GPUs and while I felt MS would use GCN, I guess Sony will be as well since all three consoles will supposedly be using AMD for the GPU.
 
If Sony were going with an updated Cell wouldn't have heard something, anything about further Cell development? It seems dead and buried at this point.
 
If Sony were going with an updated Cell wouldn't have heard something, anything about further Cell development? It seems dead and buried at this point.

Why? IBM is not involved if it´s done inside Sony

Honestly i think there is no way PS4/720 can launch without compatibility to current stuff on XBL/PSN and mostly likely retail games also. If Sony is forced to use Cell they pretty much will.

I don't think CPU performance will even be that huge of jump compared to the GPUs. CPU will be as low TDP as possible to make possible to use big power GPU.

Nobody is launching in 2012 anyway. Yes Halo 4 or Last of US wont be ported anywhere
 
I just find it hard to believe that in 9 months time, they will only be able to add 4k/mo wafers to their current production of 20k/mo for a total of 24k/mo by q3/2012.
When they are upgrading a fab to 20nm they will have to take (parts of) it offline.
 
If Sony were going with an updated Cell wouldn't have heard something, anything about further Cell development? It seems dead and buried at this point.

That's my belief also, but I had felt that even MS would be getting away from using PPEs.

Nobody is launching in 2012 anyway. Yes Halo 4 or Last of US wont be ported anywhere

The last thing you want to do IMO is use games as a justification. Halo 4 can just as easily be made to release on two consoles (like Twilight Princess) and The Last of Us video only said it was running on a PS3, not that it would be released for it.
 
That's my belief also, but I had felt that even MS would be getting away from using PPEs.

The last thing you want to do IMO is use games as a justification. Halo 4 can just as easily be made to release on two consoles (like Twilight Princess) and The Last of Us video only said it was running on a PS3, not that it would be released for it.
The Last of Us was explicitly billed as a PS3 exclusive so the notion that it's a preview for a PS4 game is pretty far fetched. At this point I doubt Sony will launch in 2012. I don't see them having the content for launch and nothing has been rumoured about PS4 dev kits reaching 3rd parties. MS probably won't launch in 2012 either since there's no pressing reason to do so. Kinect and 360 are doing well, Sony doesn't look eager to start a new console cycle til 2013 at the earliest, and the WiiU is still an unknown at this point.
 
The thing is, while the ROB takes up a bit of space, it doesn't add die area in the end. To reach the same amount of performance, your in-order design will be bigger and hotter; Needing much more on-die cache, and it will burn more energy in making critical paths as short latency as possible and utilize more aggresive prefetching of data (wasting power).

Compare IBMs in-order Power 6 to the out-of-order Power 7. The Power 6 had two cores on a 341 mm^2 65nm die, vs. Power 7 eight cores on a 567 mm^2 45nm die.

On a process normalized basis each P7 core is 20% smaller than it's P6 counterpart, all while being significantly faster in single thread processing. On top of that, P7 has 4-way SMT vs. two-way for P6 and absolutely crushes it on a per socket basis.

Cheers

Thanks Gubbi!

Can you link any reference material on some of this? Reputable information on Power is tough to come by as most tech outfits these days only pay attention to x86.

Do you think IBM would be willing to license Power7?

I'm sure they didn't mind Sony/MS licensing their old CPU tech, but from what I understand, Power7 is as good as it gets right now. Or would there simply be strong language in the licensing contract to prohibit/limit the use of the design strictly to ps4/xb720?
 
The Last of Us was explicitly billed as a PS3 exclusive so the notion that it's a preview for a PS4 game is pretty far fetched. At this point I doubt Sony will launch in 2012. I don't see them having the content for launch and nothing has been rumoured about PS4 dev kits reaching 3rd parties. MS probably won't launch in 2012 either since there's no pressing reason to do so. Kinect and 360 are doing well, Sony doesn't look eager to start a new console cycle til 2013 at the earliest, and the WiiU is still an unknown at this point.

My bad. I didn't know it was mentioned last week.
 
That's what I figured may be happening, but that seems a pretty slow ramp in wafer production, no?

I just looked back at 40nm wafer production to compare and project viability of 28nm in 2012.

By the end of 2009, TSMC had 40nm wafer production at 6m/mo.

By the end of 2010, production was 35m/mo.

For a look at what this production level meant for retail product it was difficult to nail down gpu numbers but I found a couple of interesting ones:

3m dx11 ATI gpus sold in 2009. 3m more in q1 2010.

This implies roughly 1m/mo production out of a 6m/mo wafer capability. (averaged size of course as this is all the info available).

The only info we have on gpus out in the wild are the steam numbers which break down accordingly for the 5000 series:

5770 4.24%
5850 2.52%
5870 2.25%
5750 0.95%
5670 0.7%
5650 0.52%

When parsed by the 25m total number we have of AMD on the 5000 series after 1 yr on the market, this amounts to:
10.49m 334mm^2 gpus
11.42m 170mm^2 gpus
2.68m 104mm^2 gpus

Roughly ~250mm^2 avg.

What we don't know is what other customers TSMC had at the time, but this was a relatively new node and should have brought similar interests from chip designers.

All indications though point to stronger demand as evidence by chip tape outs being triple what they were on 40nm at this time in development of the node.

Good thing is as far as availability is concerned, TSMC has more than triple the capacity than 40nm did at the end of 2009 (6m vs 20m now).

40nm Volume ramp went from 6m @ q1/2010 to 35m q4/2010.
28nm Volume ramp is scheduled 24m @ q1/2012 to 50m q4/2012.


During 2010, AMD was able to ship 25million ~250*mm^2 gpus. *Averaged

Based on the above, I'm pretty sure if MS or Sony wanted to, they could manage to stock up ~1 million nextgen chipsets for a 2012 launch. ;)
 
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I wonder how stupid idea it might be to slap 6 SPE's to the PS4 CPU and mostly use them for e.g audio processing on the next-gen titles. They should be rather tiny when you can remove the PPU and L2 and just use whatever the main CPU has.
 
I wonder how stupid idea it might be to slap 6 SPE's to the PS4 CPU...

That's an option, though a bit overkill for audio only.

I'd think a 6 spe 4 ppe would be the minimum Sony would consider for ps4.

I doubt Sony will go for a high spe count though due to dev complaints of cell utilization being a pain, but as you said, 6 of them would be rather small, would enable full BC, and (AND) can be used by developers that feel like getting their hands dirty in bringing something unique to the ps4 platform.

In fact, they could be used as the defacto physics (physx) "chip" for ps4 games. Almost like the add-in cards from years back, but with tighter integration to the scene geometry, game logic, and cpu.
 
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I'm actually quite interested in the re-use of cell technology in the PS4 because of the modularity of the CPU and with direct developer feedback, it's kind of like a "build your own" CPU when it comes to this generation. One would hope they could design a CPU that will hit high utilization while maintaining BC with PS3 games.
 
Microsoft replaces veteran Xbox design boss
Jay Greene
by Jay Greene December 14, 2011 12:18 PM PST

As Microsoft's Xbox group moves toward launching a successor to the Xbox 360, it will do so without the brand and design leadership of Don Coyner, who has guided that strategy since the console's inception more than a decade ago.

Two sources who work for Microsoft say Coyner is no longer leading the design and experience group for Xbox. One of those sources said Coyner was replaced by Emma Williams, who helped guide the just-launched redesign of the Xbox Live interface.

Microsoft declined to confirm or deny the organization changes. "We don't comment on personnel issues," a spokesman said.

Coyner is a well-regarded executive at Microsoft, who joined the Xbox team as the company began working on the video game console in 1999. Coyner started as director of marketing for the group. As development of the Xbox 360 gained steam, his role expanded to include user experience. According to journalist Dean Takahashi's book, "The Xbox 360 Uncloaked," Coyner championed creating a unified design language for Microsoft's second stab at console gaming.

"He wanted to whole user experience to be consistent, like an Apple product, where everything from the screen to the package looked like it was designed by just one person," Takahashi, now lead writer for GamesBeat at VentureBeat, wrote.

That unified design won plaudits for the console at its 2005 debut and helped propel it to much greater success than its predecessor. Sales of the device have continued to grow month-over-month, defying conventional wisdom that console sales should taper after five years or so. Xbox 360 will finish this year as the best-selling console in the United States.

Coyner, who joined Microsoft from Nintendo in 1995, served most recently as general manager of entertainment design at the company. According to his LinkedIn profile, Coyner managed 140 software and hardware designers and user researchers in Microsoft's Interactive Entertainment Business group. The sources say he hasn't left the company. It's unclear, though, what his next role will be, or why Coyner is no longer in the job.

Williams, Coyner's replacement, will be tasked with guiding the design and brand strategy as the group moves toward launching the next console. The game developer Web site Develop recently pegged the launch of the next console for 2013, something a source on the Xbox team confirmed. Microsoft declined to comment on the timing of the next Xbox.

Most recently, Williams, general manager of Xbox Experiences, led a group that worked on the updated interface for Xbox Live, launched last week. The group adapted the tile-based Metro interface, which first debuted with Windows Phone 7 last year, to the Xbox experience.

It's a dramatically different look for gamers, featuring content hubs--such as video, games, and social--displayed horizontally across the top of the screen. From each hub, users can chose from a selection of rectangular tiles that display content, such as the latest games played or the hottest movies available on demand. And with Microsoft's Kinect motion-sensing controller, consumers can also use gestures and voice to navigate through the new interface.


http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-57343102-75/microsoft-replaces-veteran-xbox-design-boss/


Xbox 3 launching in fall 2013 seems right to me.
 
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