Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
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No chance of that IMO, that's like a down clocked HD7970 which would be far too power hungry. I think 1408ALU's (7850) is much more likely, also I think RAM will be more like 2GB+
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anexanhume
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Little premature either way. By 2013, we could be looking at TSMC's 20nm process (they have said it will kick off then) and 2 architecture iterations from AMD (one at end of 2012/beginning 2013, then end 2013/beginning of 2014). I would imagine it will be a hybrid between their 2013 architecture and 2014 architecture, which may mean his ALU count is closer than yours. 20nm is of dubious certainty though.
Keep in mind the 6990m already has 1120 steam processors for a 100W TDP and the next Xbox can exceed that a bit.
In regards to his prediction, I would think 256 memory interface more likely than 192.
20nm will be starting to come in small quantities in 2013, but I really can't see that being ready for a 2013 console. Especially considering how these process shrinks are often delayed, MS surely wouldn't rely on it. I'd expect the next XBox to use somewhere around 120-180w (360 was 160w), so my guess for the GPU would be under 100w. While it might very well be based on something between the 7xxx and 8xxx its still going to be limited to well under 2048 ALU's on a 28nm process AFAICS.
The final chip might end up somewhere in between my guess and IllusionistK's, but I'd bet money on it not hitting 2048 ALU's at 700Mhz in a 2013 console (I don't think it'll be anywhere near that).
BTW even though that chip is called 6990m its basically just a 20% down clocked 6870.
The final chip might end up somewhere in between my guess and IllusionistK's, but I'd bet money on it not hitting 2048 ALU's at 700Mhz in a 2013 console (I don't think it'll be anywhere near that).
BTW even though that chip is called 6990m its basically just a 20% down clocked 6870.
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anexanhume
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I agree. I was just playing "what if" with a best case scenario.
On the other hand, GloFo already has 20nm test ARM chips.
Xenon/Zephyr had 203W PSUs and would peak at 180W during gaming. PS3 would hit 200W. I would think that next gen they'd defer to a higher GPU TDP as opposed to CPU TDP. At the very least, you could look at 75W mobile GPUs like the 6970M to get an idea of where we might be at. TDP often tends to be higher than the peak power will ever be for the part too.
http://www.hardcoreware.net/reviews/review-356-2.htm (it's humorous to compare to Wii, BTW)
I only used that for reference given its 100W TDP and its form factor being more similar to what will go in a console than a full blown desktop card.
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Well it's interesting that, with 7000 series now officially around the corner and details leaking, if 2013 is true we can finally get a hazy look at the type of actual GPU that might be in next gen.
Considering that add another year for 8000 series, and it will be just a optimized version of 7000.
Of course I guess if we assume we're looking at fall 2013 for next box, they could try to shoehorn the next major AMD architecture revamp in, possibly. I'm not seeing anybody being particularly aggressive this time though.
360 and PS3 also had quite a few problems with heat. I think 180w is a fair estimate for the top end of what the next XBox will consume. I can see them using a higher percentage of the systems power on the GPU this time which is why I'm thinking of somewhere near 100w (what was Xenos?, 70w?)
Anyway I'll stick to my opinion that we won't see anything close to a 2048 ALU GCN chip in the next XBox. My post will stay unedited for future reference
Anyway I'll stick to my opinion that we won't see anything close to a 2048 ALU GCN chip in the next XBox. My post will stay unedited for future reference
anexanhume
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360 and PS3 also had quite a few problems with heat. I think 180w is a fair estimate for the top end of what the next XBox will consume. I can see them using a higher percentage of the systems power on the GPU this time which is why I'm thinking of somewhere near 100w (what was Xenos?, 70w?)
Anyway I'll stick to my opinion that we won't see anything close to a 2048 ALU GCN chip in the next XBox. My post will stay unedited for future reference
IMO they had heat problems because MS and Sony tried to cheap out on cooling solutions. Given their dissipations and internal volumes, they should have had no problems cooling those parts. Just look at where performance laptops are. You can cool a 135W CPU and two 100W GPUs in a 17 inch enclosure with about 2" of thickness.
I haven't been able to find a power consumption breakdown for either console despite my searching.
I would be surprised if they fit that amount in as well, especially if they threw in EDRAM again. I would definitely consider it an upper bound for a 2013 console.
Just like to point out that's not really true, those gaming laptops get borderline on fire if you use them for any extended length of time at full capability. However, a console is a much larger box with much more significant cooling and 200W shouldn't really be an upper bound of what they are capable of putting inside, provided they do a proper job with cooling. Not that I expect they will go much higher than 200W.
anexanhume
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I would be curious to hear your definition of "borderline on fire." Even the higher performance GPUs usually won't exceed ~80 C in usage, which is perfectly acceptable. That's why I was using the contrast of those scenarios with the bigger boxes that are consoles. If laptops can do those dimensions and temperatures without failure, so to should consoles be able to.
I think at least one manufacturer will be aggressive. So far power consumption was higher every generation. Maybe they just accepted that’s reality, if they truly want make big impact and make these boxes future proof (relatively )and make another long life cycles ,with growing popularity each year despite pc and tablet technology running away. I think we see another big increase in console power consumption (above 300W) and they will launch with very impressive GPU similar to the top end pc gpus from that time, maybe down clocked but more advanced in features . They have plenty of time to polish since they’ll probably use 28nm process. And as others above pointed out , we might demonize cooling challenges a little. There is slim chance that 20nm might be possible, but even if not, IMO its worth risk , launching big and hot boxes in fall 2013 , 20 nm process will be just right around the corner. If software is there ,(and remember we haven’t been spoiled with pc games / graphics like in 2004/2005)(another thing is learning curves for developers will probably be smaller this time ) hardcore shocked by what they see will flock to the shops and they will swallow 450- 600$ price tags . Personally , I would and i think "few " others would too
How much do those laptops cost?, how much is the cooling system?
I think there needs to be less comparisons to laptops, both on the GPU side as well as cooling solutions. This is going to be a $400 console after all.
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More like 96 degrees C and that is quite a bit beyond warm to the touch as in damn near the boiling point of water. Admittedly that is CPU, but it certainly shows a limitation in the cooling of a high end laptop.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/4954/alienwares-m18x-part-2-amds-radeon-hd-6990m-in-crossfire/4
They might have but what's the use when we get news like this: http://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-globalfoundries-28nm-apu-tsmc,14073.html
I can't see that benig any use, even if it is ready. That tech will just better move the heat to the surface of the chip. It won't speed up how quickly the heat transfers from the chip (and nanowick) into the air, which is where the heat has to be dissipated to. Any cooling solution will still need to deal with getting heat into the air, which requires surface area and volumes and air, unless they come up with something radical like a heat eating material. It should be possible to turn heat into electrical energy and recover all taht energy, but that tech won't be featuring in next-gen!
In principle a XBOX360 size console has plenty of surface area ... if you turned one entire side to a heatsink it would be plenty for 400+ Watts even with low noise fans/airflow IMO (it doesn't have to be very thick, only the first couple of cm near the heatpipes do most of the cooling). Generating airflow over that area without taking up too much space and keeping the cost down over the huge amounts of heatpipes you need would be a greater challenge.
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Yeah... copper's neither cheap nor lightweight. The console companies are expecting to ship millions of these units, and it all just adds up. We all saw how MS was stingy with 360's initial cooling design and what they did with the Zephyr/Falcon revisions. A more robust cooling solution will weigh more heavily in their minds next time, but one shouldn't expect something too elaborate.
Well, actually, the PS3's cooling is pretty insane (how much does that cost to manufacture vs your conventional PC coolers).
Well, actually, the PS3's cooling is pretty insane (how much does that cost to manufacture vs your conventional PC coolers).
You'd couple the chips to the surface and vent heat directly? How would you get airflow over the top - a blower at the side? You'd have to ensure users didn't put anything on top, and it'd have to remain not too hot or they'd get sued for burnt fingers! It's an idea, but one I'd have thought we'd have seen in PC cases which offer much larger surface area and have more heat to deal with.
Google finds some experiments in this area.
Google finds some experiments in this area.
Oil cooling should make a come back.
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