Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[homerdog]

It's 8x the current generation transistor budget:

500m x 8 = 4b

I'm not expecting anything less than this for next gen.

I would estimate that the GTX580 is at least 8x the current gen console GPUs (probably >10x when compared to RSX). Yet it does this with *only* 3B transistors.

I'm just saying, 8x performance does not necessarily equal 8x transistors. And as others have already pointed out, even at 28nm you're gonna be hard pressed to see something like a GTX580 in a console. Too much powa.

 

[TheChefO]

I would estimate that the GTX580 is at least 8x the current gen console GPUs (probably >10x when compared to RSX). Yet it does this with *only* 3B transistors.

I'm just saying, 8x performance does not necessarily equal 8x transistors. And as others have already pointed out, even at 28nm you're gonna be hard pressed to see something like a GTX580 in a console. Too much powa.

500m trans was roughly the budget for the entire console silicon in ps3 and xb360.

232m for xgpu
165m for xcpu
100m for edram

ps3 was more evenly split as I recall.

Hence my call for 4b trans (8x500m)

Granted, there are likely some efficiencies to be put to use in maximizing the available silicone to achieve more throughput without a linear 8x expansion across the transistor count, but it gives a rough ballpark for what to expect given roughly the SAME die size as before if targeting 32/28nm.

 

[Mobius1aic]

I don't see where the current Xbox360 would find its target in the 2 model line-up rumor. Xbox360 can still generare a lot of profits. It would make sense for MS to launch a revised Xbox360, a truly slim design, with a new SoC at 32nm, maybe already at CES2012, and then launch the next-generation next fall. Xbox360 would target mainstream-casual gamers, in the range 149-249$, and the Next Xbox will be sold at a much higher price range 399-499+$, targeting hard-core gamers.
I think that people are willing to pay more today for entertainment and electronics than few years ago.

Regardless of inflation, I think $300 is a good limit. You can put a nice bit of technology in a plastic box for that amount, especially if BC is left out (that is what a super cheap even more slim 360 model could provide). What if MS was to go APU + GPU? Quad core APUs are pretty cheap and powerful on their own (not to mention layed out in spec and in production), being a significant gain over Xenon, equal to Xenos in graphics (sans the benefit of eDRAM). Throw in a trusty mobile packaged VLIW4 AMD GPU like Barts + 128 bit bus + XDR2 and you have a system that destroys the 360.

 

[fehu]

just speculating

what if nextbox is completely retrocompatible to the 360, and the defective chips get some core/unit disabed and sold in a new board as regular 360?
so you have only one production line that satisfy all the lineup, and when the yelds are good enought you can start thinking about terminate the 360

 

[TheChefO]

just speculating

what if nextbox is completely retrocompatible to the 360, and the defective chips get some core/unit disabed and sold in a new board as regular 360?
so you have only one production line that satisfy all the lineup, and when the yelds are good enought you can start thinking about terminate the 360

Indeed.

 

[TheChefO]

Regardless of inflation, I think $300 is a good limit. You can put a nice bit of technology in a plastic box for that amount, especially if BC is left out (that is what a super cheap even more slim 360 model could provide). What if MS was to go APU + GPU? Quad core APUs are pretty cheap and powerful on their own (not to mention layed out in spec and in production), being a significant gain over Xenon, equal to Xenos in graphics (sans the benefit of eDRAM). Throw in a trusty mobile packaged VLIW4 AMD GPU like Barts + 128 bit bus + XDR2 and you have a system that destroys the 360.

Interesting concept:

xbox360 apu + next gen GPU = xb720.

I'd think it would be a bit wasteful as much of the silicon in the APU would be useless, but an interesting thought nonetheless.

 

[patsu]

Thunderbolt rumor...

http://www.appleinsider.com/article...etary_dock_connector_for_2012_ultrabooks.html

Intel is reportedly planning to release a proprietary connector that will work alongside its Thunderbolt technology to allow for advanced docking stations for the chipmakers' ultrabook design specifications.

...

Intel is reportedly suggesting that PC makers include "a mini DisplayPort connector, HDMI via DP++, a D-sub connector via USB, a built in USB controller that will connect to USB ports and audio, eSATA via a PCI Express based SATA controller and just about anything else you can think of that needs PCI Express connectivity."

...

In addition to the dual port solution, the report claims Intel is also considering custom dock connectors, similar to a docking solution released earlier this year by Sony. The VAIO Z uses a proprietary port and Thunderbolt technology to connect with a docking station peripheral that includes an optical drive and dedicated graphics processor.

...

 

[Brimstone]

Xbox 2012: SEIRAN (Storm from a Clear Sky)
VLIW4 GPU
RAMBUS TBI
Power 7 CPU cores


Certainly would put Nintendo in an awkward position.

 

[homerdog]

500m trans was roughly the budget for the entire console silicon in ps3 and xb360.

232m for xgpu
165m for xcpu
100m for edram

ps3 was more evenly split as I recall.

Hence my call for 4b trans (8x500m)

Granted, there are likely some efficiencies to be put to use in maximizing the available silicone to achieve more throughput without a linear 8x expansion across the transistor count, but it gives a rough ballpark for what to expect given roughly the SAME die size as before if targeting 32/28nm.

Ah, I misunderstood. So GTX580 is right at ~9x the transistors of Xenos + EDRAM. This makes more sense, and shows a near linear scaling with transistors vs performance.

 

[Rolf N]

Cooling is easier over a larger surface than a smaller one.

I never said wattage would be absolutely less, but it could be with binning.

The wattage/area quotient does not drop when you split. It's true that a larger chip is easier to cool than a smaller one if both dissipate the same wattage, but that doesn't apply when you split. A 200W part split in two is (optimistically) two half-sized 100W parts. The cooling requirements remain the same because total power remains the same, the total surface area remains the same and thus heat density remains the same.

Indeed, but binning two low power 1.4b trans GPUs would produce higher yields than a single low power 2.8b trans GPU.

Of course, an engineer could just take your approach and say, "can't do it", slap in whatever fits in a single gpu package in a small box and call it a day.



But then we'd have xb720 competing with Wuu instead of ps4. Which I'm sure some folks around here would be thrilled with.

I wouldn't worry too much about the Wii U eating all the cake. From what they've shown (very small case with a single 40mm fan), it's going to be a 50W, maybe 60W part, if they push really hard. There's plenty of room for both Microsoft and Sony to outclass it with a simple rerun of their own previous power budgets.

Current Wii U expectactions on various forums are way overblown to begin with IMO. You might say I'm an equal-opportunity party pooper.

 

[wco81]

More than CPU or GPU, could an SSD enhance performance?

Subjective feel of computers like MacBook Air, with limited RAM and slow CPU/GPU, seems faster or more responsive than computers with faster CPU/GPU and even more RAM.

Certainly SSD would help loading the game (either using as cache or for full game installs) and streaming data. But perhaps it could help with paging, if they limit RAM capacity?

One would hope consoles don't need to page but perhaps SSD could permit some acceptable level of paging? Especially for non-gaming features like some chat/communications system which would otherwise have to be in RAM?

 

[TheChefO]

More than CPU or GPU, could an SSD enhance performance?

Subjective feel of computers like MacBook Air, with limited RAM and slow CPU/GPU, seems faster or more responsive than computers with faster CPU/GPU and even more RAM.

Certainly SSD would help loading the game (either using as cache or for full game installs) and streaming data. But perhaps it could help with paging, if they limit RAM capacity?

One would hope consoles don't need to page but perhaps SSD could permit some acceptable level of paging? Especially for non-gaming features like some chat/communications system which would otherwise have to be in RAM?

SSD is still to expensive for what it brings to the table. Though I'm sure having the option to add one would be nice, I don't think the bang/buck would be worth while in a console as a standard feature as it would cost roughly $100.

That budget could buy considerable silicon or Ram.

 

[AlphaWolf]

They don't cost $100, I can buy one for $100. If MS or Sony were to buy in, I suspect they'd pay maybe half that and it would decline pretty quickly.

I wouldn't be surprised to see MS or Sony ship with an SKU of a console with 32 or 64GB of on board solid state storage, not some super fast thing however.

 

[msia2k75]

They don't cost $100, I can buy one for $100. If MS or Sony were to buy in, I suspect they'd pay maybe half that and it would decline pretty quickly.

I wouldn't be surprised to see MS or Sony ship with an SKU of a console with 32 or 64GB of on board solid state storage, not some super fast thing however.

IMO that's a given.

 

[TheChefO]

The wattage/area quotient does not drop when you split. It's true that a larger chip is easier to cool than a smaller one if both dissipate the same wattage, but that doesn't apply when you split. A 200W part split in two is (optimistically) two half-sized 100W parts. The cooling requirements remain the same because total power remains the same, the total surface area remains the same and thus heat density remains the same.

It depends on the physical layout of the package.

{GPU1}-{CPU}-{GPU2}

vs

{GGPPUU}-{CPU}

Both may dissipate the same heat, but the top one has the advantages of:
Better yields
Potential binning
Easier to cool due to separation of dies

I wouldn't worry too much about the Wii U eating all the cake. From what they've shown (very small case with a single 40mm fan), it's going to be a 50W, maybe 60W part, if they push really hard. There's plenty of room for both Microsoft and Sony to outclass it with a simple rerun of their own previous power budgets.

Current Wii U expectactions on various forums are way overblown to begin with IMO. You might say I'm an equal-opportunity party pooper.

2.6million trans for Radeon HD6950 nets 200watts TDP on 40nm.
3million trans for GTX 560 nets 210watts TDP on 40nm.

TSMC and GF are claiming roughly 50% reduction in TDP over 40nm.

That puts power draw of these chips at roughly 100watts on 28nm HKMG.



The launch xbox360 had a 203watt power supply. Power draw of the launch ps3 was roughly 209watts.

What power draw are you expecting for xb720 & ps4?



http://www.dailytech.com/Nextgeneration+28nm+GPUs+Could+Be+45+Percent+Faster/article23158.htm

http://www.globalfoundries.com/newsletter/28nm_frontier.aspx

 

[TheChefO]

They don't cost $100, I can buy one for $100. If MS or Sony were to buy in, I suspect they'd pay maybe half that and it would decline pretty quickly.

I wouldn't be surprised to see MS or Sony ship with an SKU of a console with 32 or 64GB of on board solid state storage, not some super fast thing however.

Even if they could get them for $50, that's $50 I'd rather have invested in silicon or ram.

It nets a nice benefit on PC's due to the open nature of the workload on a pc vs the streamlined operation of a console.

 

[AlphaWolf]

well it's not $50 vs nothing, its $50 vs the other type of storage you decide to provide, I'd guess the minimum for a HDD is probably in the $20 range.

loading faster is nice on any box, it's not exclusive to PC

Again I don't expect an SSD, unless it's on some elite type SKU of a console.

 

[TheChefO]

well it's not $50 vs nothing, its $50 vs the other type of storage you decide to provide, I'd guess the minimum for a HDD is probably in the $20 range.

loading faster is nice on any box, it's not exclusive to PC

Again I don't expect an SSD, unless it's on some elite type SKU of a console.

Indeed, an HDD isn't free or cheap. That's why I'm not expecting it standard on the nextgen consoles either.

A high-end variant, sure.

 

[Mobius1aic]

I'd think it would be a bit wasteful as much of the silicon in the APU would be useless, but an interesting thought nonetheless.

Wasteful in what aspect? x86 or idling SPs? I'd be very encouraging of developers using the SPs for powering physics or other things. Even if that idea doesn't hit a home run, you could have a reduced SP chip with 4 cores + 80 or so SPs to provide video playback, with on board decode, interface and dashboard rendering as well.

 

[fehu]

if the sp are usable from the cpu for something really usefull and doesn't take too much space they can be the new spu, but it's hard in my opinion, and adding exotic functionality to the cpu can trash the cache and narrow the bw to the memory more than desidered