Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
- Thread starter Acert93
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Almost a year ago we were hearing that EA had xbox720 "dev kits" (which were likely to spec PC's)
Just sayin' ...
Why would they need to kill it?
Forward compat the first year or so of games, keep a nice cushion of price disparity between them and let xb360 take the casual/kid crowd as xb720 gives the "core" gamer something to be excited about ...
Sony continued to make a killing off ps2 years after ps3 was launched ... it's not like the x360 hardware is losing money at this point ...
Sure 2012 is possible, but if it were happening I'd expect specific technical data to be known by a very wide cross section of devs at this point. The bulk of devs are going to get info at least 12 months before launch and probably 18.
Things don't stay very secret once that happens, and even though I'm mostly out of the loop now, I'd expect to have heard something, if only bitching.
I do know MS has a lot of people working on a next gen platform, they did some pretty aggressive hiring perhaps 6 months or so ago, but I don't think that is indicative of a 2012 launch.
MS in particular have been appallingly bad at stopping devs leaking, and I don't see that changing.
Things don't stay very secret once that happens, and even though I'm mostly out of the loop now, I'd expect to have heard something, if only bitching.
I do know MS has a lot of people working on a next gen platform, they did some pretty aggressive hiring perhaps 6 months or so ago, but I don't think that is indicative of a 2012 launch.
MS in particular have been appallingly bad at stopping devs leaking, and I don't see that changing.
Two things:
1) We heard nothing prior to Natal being unveiled
2) Perhaps they don't yet know they are working on nextgen games yet ... (similar to the "better with Kinect" campaign, they could do "better with xb720")
If all it takes is for devs to stick to high level languages and the game will automatically be scaled up for xb720, they have an instant launch library mirroring xb360's.
The other factor is most devs on big games also bring those titles to pc. As long as the dev tools are strong, it could be trivial (<90 days) for them to "port" the game for the xb720.
Assuming of course that MS doesn't have a radical departure from xb360 architecture which would leave all of their dev tools useless ...
I'm not saying your wrong, I'm just saying there are ways that could provide for a sufficient launch lineup without taking much time/effort while providing a handful of "showcase" titles exclusive to the xb720.
We saw much the same thing at xb360's launch. a bunch of ported pc and xbox games with only a few that actually did anything with the hardware.
If they are sticking closer to the architecture, it should allow for a more seamless transition and a better representation of what is possible with less time invested by devs to get there than what took place at xb360's launch.
Assets don't automatically scale with power!
360 launch games weren't just Xbox games running at a higher frame rate.
PC ports of console games almost always leave super powered PC's twiddling their thumbs. Throwing billions at a new console platform only to keep developers in the dark and unable to make any software that could help differentiate (and therefore sell) the platform would have to be one of the worst decisions that a platform holder could possibly make.
Creating launch titles is hard enough as it is, as is a successful launch for a platform. Purposely handicapping everyone just so you can be secretive is a really bad idea.
Just image how bad things would have been with all the 360 devs thinking they were making Xbox 1 games!
Megadrive1988
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Cannot wait for the leap into the next gen.
I have the impression that the dev kit has somehow to do with the family radeon HD 7 ***(7870 and 7850 at 100/120 watts?) and a month ago we see listed(wikipedia,forum etc) this family of AMD processors GCN and perhaps there some relationship.
Xbox Launch lineup:
How many of these would you consider specifically utilizing the xb360 hardware and not just ported xbox games (or ported pc games) with higher render resolution and higher res textures?
I count 4.
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Speaking as a PC gamer, I am just as excited for the next generation consoles as anybody. Finally we will be free from the shackles of horribly optimized DX9 ports. I don't even care if the minimum spec for games next year is DX11 GPU with a quad core CPU. Bring it on!
Regarding these NextBox dev kits, are we thinking that they are packing 6990s? If so we are in for a real treat. I would expect something more along the lines of a GTX560, maybe a 560Ti if they stretch it. And if they can put something in there equivalent to a GTX580 it would be a small miracle, even on 28nm. 6990 level power just seems out of reach until at least whatever comes after 28nm.
Regarding these NextBox dev kits, are we thinking that they are packing 6990s? If so we are in for a real treat. I would expect something more along the lines of a GTX560, maybe a 560Ti if they stretch it. And if they can put something in there equivalent to a GTX580 it would be a small miracle, even on 28nm. 6990 level power just seems out of reach until at least whatever comes after 28nm.
All those games specifically utilised Xbox 360 hardware because they all ran on Xbox 360 hardware.
All those games were made by people who knew roughly what the final hardware was 10 months before their games were being played around the world.
Not only that, but the software situation is different regarding "PC ports". Quake 4 was not a PS2 level game. Rage, otoh, runs pretty damn well on Xbox 360 and PS3. CoD MW3 runs perfectly on consoles and a high res version is not enough to draw players away to the PC.
Releasing a console with only ports of PC ports of ultra popular console games, and putting that up against a top-of-its-game Halo 4 equipped 360 would be just about the most stupid thing MS could do with its new machine.
Prophecy2k
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Well if Sony will only launch in 2013, and i'm quite sure that MS doesn't see themselves competing for the same consumer as the WiiU, then it wouldn't matter if the NextBox launched with a few NextBox exclusive games and a swathe of shitty ports. They'd effectively have a year to get more NextBox content out to persuade their consumers to upgrade before their competition launches.
Regardless, i see the biggest hurdle for a 2012 launch for MS being the lithography. If they launch at 45nm or 32nm with a console designed around those process nodes, and their competition launches a year later taking advantage of the bulk 28 and 22nm processes then MS will ostensibly be at a disadvantage.
I personally think that the 2012 launch is garbage. I see a 2012 reveal for both MS and Sony, but they will launch on the newest smallest process nodes. Otherwise why bother extending the length of the current gen? They could have easily have launch the nextbox in 2010 with Kinect as it's main feature. They didn't, they used Kinect to extend their current gen so that they could wait for the maturation of the new processes. Why jump the gun now and deny yourself a process advantage over the WiiU? It isn't like Xbox360 gamers are gonna do a mass exodus to WiiU because they've been denied "teh awesmz graffix" for too long ;-)
Regardless, i see the biggest hurdle for a 2012 launch for MS being the lithography. If they launch at 45nm or 32nm with a console designed around those process nodes, and their competition launches a year later taking advantage of the bulk 28 and 22nm processes then MS will ostensibly be at a disadvantage.
I personally think that the 2012 launch is garbage. I see a 2012 reveal for both MS and Sony, but they will launch on the newest smallest process nodes. Otherwise why bother extending the length of the current gen? They could have easily have launch the nextbox in 2010 with Kinect as it's main feature. They didn't, they used Kinect to extend their current gen so that they could wait for the maturation of the new processes. Why jump the gun now and deny yourself a process advantage over the WiiU? It isn't like Xbox360 gamers are gonna do a mass exodus to WiiU because they've been denied "teh awesmz graffix" for too long ;-)
Yes, they all RAN on xb360. That doesn't mean they were anything more than xbox/pc games running at high resolution and higher resolution textures aside from a handful that were built/tweaked FOR the specs of xb360.
I'm not saying this is ideal, but it is a good way to enable a smooth transition and bulk up the launch library.
And only a handful actually tailored them to those specs in making anything above and beyond hi-res xbox1 games.
I don't get your point. You're saying pc/xb360 ports won't be enough to move hardware? If so, I agree that those by themselves will not be enough. There will have to be some sign of what is to come that DOES take advantage of the hardware in some measurable degree above and beyond xb360 to really get sales moving.
I never said "ONLY ports". I said this will likely be the bulk of the software at launch.
And I fully expect Halo4 to be improved on xb720 if it launches next year.
As for it being a "stupid" idea or not, as long as MS is making money and taking steps to ensure they have a profitable future, I don't think they care if some would think of it as "stupid".
You've got no chance of 6990 or GTX 580.
Power, heat, cost....
7850/7870 at most imho...
Atleast we'll finally see tessellation give push...
That's the real reason I think they (MS or Sony) would want to launch 2012. To get a jump on the competition or at the very least, fear of being beaten to market by the competition.
One half process node isn't going to make much difference. 50% increase in trans count 50% increase in performance 30fps vs 45fps.
This increased trans count will also increase relative die size as the competition will be able to match die shrinks as well.
ie: the inferior machine will be able to hold a price advantage.
Xbox360 used 90nm, which became available in retail GPU a month after its launch.
New 28nm GPUs are expected by 1Q 2012. There is plenty of time to improve yields until the end of 2012. 32nm are already in mass production at GF, and IBM new Power7+ is suppose to be out by mid-2012 @32nm.
Prophecy2k
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Hmmmn i dunno Chief... a 50% difference in performance could make more of a difference than we realise, especially given the console releases will be less than a year apart. It would certainly make more of a difference in multi-platform ports between the two consoles, and considering MS barely has a first party, i would expect it to be in their interests to ensure that they are within at most 10% of the performance of their competitor, so as to repeat the same situation they had with multiplat games this gen. If there's a significant different in muliplat games next gen, i think it could hurt MS more if it was in Sony's favour than the other way around.
But ultimately it'll come down to what the customer values more, sticking with the same software and online platfom, or the graphics/performance of the two consoles.
Prophecy2k
Veteran
I see
I also saw this in the other thread too:
http://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsAction.do?action=detail&newsid=6181
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