It's still not really concrete. And the timeline sentence leaves wiggle room, It's a lot more believable than many previous rumors though, but I'm still convinced nothing earlier than 2013, even if the rest of the rumor turns out true, which I believe is possible.
Why is a 2012 release date such an impossibility?
What would be the limiting factors in releasing the console in 2012 if the design were ready to go now?
As I recall, xb360 developers didn't have final hardware dev kits until 6 months prior to release ...
If MS is literally building on the architecture already in place with xb360, I see no reason for it to take longer than the previous gen to get the product on store shelves.
This would mean the software learning curve is significantly less than last gen, and launch lineup would be a cinch. Granted, they likely wouldn't take full advantage of the hardware, but what launch lineup does?
The only real roadblock to launching in 2012 would be for sales/profit protection issues. But everything I've seen out of MS up to this point has been with an eye on future profits, not risking the future for a small gain today.
With xb360 prices dipping very low this holiday, I could see an
official drop in price to the ~$150 mark in the early part of the year leaving plenty of room for a $300-$400 nextgen system late in the year.
If they manage to work the "forward compatible" gameplan well, they should see a very nice transition without fear of consumers considering any purchase after the new system is announced as "wasted".
I'm starting to think it's not only possible, it's
probable.
Consider, MS knows full well the advantage of releasing first and knows the pitfalls of releasing last.
They can't afford to be caught flat-footed here and loose market-share to Nintendo HD or PS4.