Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Shifty Geezer]

Yeah, but as "some B3D poster" which doesn't seem suitably reverential enough.

I also wonder what their line of information was. Do they scout these pages, or GAF, or Eurogamer?

 

[rpg.314]

Considering that it takes about 3 years to design a desktop gpu, 2014 seems to be the target.

 

[AlNom]

Yeah, but as "some B3D poster" which doesn't seem suitably reverential enough.

Insensitive blokes!

I also wonder what their line of information was. Do they scout these pages, or GAF, or Eurogamer?

hm... good question. grandmaster definitely picked it up first for the DF blog, which I presume neogaf found next. *shrug* Maybe they're just citing the original source (proper as it is, though I suppose I might have written something more... article-like!).

Considering that it takes about 3 years to design a desktop gpu, 2014 seems to be the target.

It just seems so bizarre that Microsoft would just start, given the relative uncertainty, post-360-launch, of when the generation would end. They'd want to start researching the upcoming generation all the way through. Then again, maybe the contingency plan was simply Kinect or a scaled up 360 with DX11, but now it's about time to think beyond that and with more up-to-date manufacturing processes. :s

A no brainer imo. Look at the huge sales spikes both PS3 and 360 got with the introduction of slim models. Then look at Apple and Nintendo with the DS and "hey, buy our different/yearly/improved versions of the same hardware 40 times" strategies.

Indeed. The Slim reduction was quite a significant leap from Jasper, but I wonder just how much smaller they can go when they're sticking to your standard DVD drive. Looking at the photos here, http://www.anandtech.com/show/3774/welcome-to-valhalla-inside-the-new-250gb-xbox-360-slim/6, you can see how much space is wasted from the DVD drive on the left side.

The Slim, as it is, is fairly good with the cooling and quite packed inside, so it's hard to imagine them going any smaller, unless they hit 28nm and can afford to use a smaller cooling solution or at least a funky looking heatsink block so they can move the drive in closer. The heatsink/fan placement is pretty ideal with no obstruction but the exterior grill, so they'd not want that covered. hm....

 

[rpg.314]

It just seems so bizarre that Microsoft would just start, given the relative uncertainty, post-360-launch, of when the generation would end. They'd want to start researching the upcoming generation all the way through. Then again, maybe the contingency plan was simply Kinect or a scaled up 360 with DX11, but now it's about time to think beyond that and with more up-to-date manufacturing processes. :s

They still seem to be ahead (360 costs less to make than the cheapest ps3), so it would make sense for them to start ahead the next gen as well. I guess they want to come out ahead the next gen as well. So any delay from now on will only hurt sony.

Besides, there's not going to be 22nm SOI @GF, so it makes sense for them to plan ahead.

 

[AlNom]

I guess what's funny about this is that there is no job listing about the CPU side (first thing I tried after finding the GPU one). If we take the GPU listing verbatim as being for the next gen, then maybe they're already done with the CPU.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I guess what's funny about this is that there is no job listing about the CPU side (first thing I tried after finding the GPU one). If we take the GPU listing verbatim as being for the next gen, then maybe they're already done with the CPU.

Or just that there's a position there that was never vacant.

 

[eastmen]

A slimmer XB360, like PSTwo, would help carry XB360+Kinect for another two years, so this doesn't contradict the rumours of a delayed next-gen.

Patcher is claiming a 360 price drop in june. How many more does MS really have , i believe the core verison of the system will now be at $150 if the price drop is true. I think once we hit $100 for the low end its time for ms to put out something new

 

[AlphaWolf]

Patcher is claiming a 360 price drop in june. How many more does MS really have , i believe the core verison of the system will now be at $150 if the price drop is true. I think once we hit $100 for the low end its time for ms to put out something new

They could afford to drop to $150, but I don't know that they will. I could see $179 this year, $149 next year, $129 and then $99 after the next gen starts,

 

[rpg.314]

I guess what's funny about this is that there is no job listing about the CPU side (first thing I tried after finding the GPU one). If we take the GPU listing verbatim as being for the next gen, then maybe they're already done with the CPU.

Or may be they aren't looking to add anything apart from OoO

I guess they too find CPUs boring.

 

[eastmen]

They could afford to drop to $150, but I don't know that they will. I could see $179 this year, $149 next year, $129 and then $99 after the next gen starts,

it really all depends , don't forget that the higher end sku's are based on the system and kinect so if both devices get price cuts we may see a faster drop to the bottom .

If the xbox 360 drops to $150 for the core and kinect drops to $100 this year then buying them both would only cost $250 so that bundle can't stay at $300 same with the $400 bundle.

I'm sure ms will want to put out a new $400 system in the next 2 years

 

[eastmen]

http://www.maximumpc.com/article/ne...4tb_desktop_1tb_notebook_drives_shipping_soon

1TB per plater hardrives coming out soon. Sounds like we might see some beefy storage space next gen. This could put a 4TB drive for a DD only sku as a possiblity. You'd be able to fit 80 games at 50gigs a piece on such a drive.

 

[AlphaWolf]

it really all depends , don't forget that the higher end sku's are based on the system and kinect so if both devices get price cuts we may see a faster drop to the bottom .

If the xbox 360 drops to $150 for the core and kinect drops to $100 this year then buying them both would only cost $250 so that bundle can't stay at $300 same with the $400 bundle.

Huh? The bundle prices would drop the with the unit prices. If they drop the console $20 the bundle price would also drop $20, if the drop the kinect price (why would they? its been out for 4 months) the bundle would also go down that amount.

Just because you can drop price it doesn't mean you should, it needs to be a net benefit to microsoft, I'm not sure a $50 drop at this time produces that as they are already selling well.

I'm sure ms will want to put out a new $400 system in the next 2 years

I'm not so sure about that time line considering how successful kinect has been. I'm sure they want to be ready to launch, but I don't know that they want to launch right now.

 

[eastmen]

depends on how important kinect or kinect 2 is to their xbox next plans don't you think

 

[AlphaWolf]

depends on how important kinect or kinect 2 is to their xbox next plans don't you think

I don't think kinect has anything to do with it. It's always going to be an addon (it'll have a bundle option I'm sure). There's some improvements they can make to better support it with the next gen, but it can't replace traditional controls.

 

[Squilliam]

I guess what's funny about this is that there is no job listing about the CPU side (first thing I tried after finding the GPU one). If we take the GPU listing verbatim as being for the next gen, then maybe they're already done with the CPU.

To me it makes more sense given their 'talent' lies in the GPU arena given their close relationship with Direct X and GPU development that they would focus more individual attention on that part as they did this generation.

P.S. Does IBM stand a chance of making the nextXbox CPU? Their POWER 7 does look like quite the sturdy chip at 45nm, so maybe it'll fit the power budget at 32nm or lower and everyone loves redunkulous cache sizes with ED-RAM, right?

 

[AlNom]

To me it makes more sense given their 'talent' lies in the GPU arena given their close relationship with Direct X and GPU development that they would focus more individual attention on that part as they did this generation.

P.S. Does IBM stand a chance of making the nextXbox CPU? Their POWER 7 does look like quite the sturdy chip at 45nm, so maybe it'll fit the power budget at 32nm or lower and everyone loves redunkulous cache sizes with ED-RAM, right?

Power7 probably doesn't make too much sense for them. As you say, they're best on the GPU side. I mean, aside from recent endeavours to shove as much graphics tasks to Cell, is there anything that really needs a massive CPU? (There is the mention of *ahem* physics in the GPU Architecture Job listing. ) So... hey, here's an ultra-beefy GPU with unified shaders, lol-threads, textures, triangles, tessellation, etc.... Just throw things at it, it'll take care of the scheduling and threading and what-not. Don't worry about needing to make up performance by off-loading to the CPU... Of course, I am speaking within the confines of a CPU-GPU budget for a console. And well, this does sound awfully familiar now doesn't it.

There is also the PC-console porting to consider as well. Just thinking aloud, but how many devs have actually made significant use of the CPU on PC based on SPU-graphics work, not just multi-threading needs as dictated by Waternoose's triple hyperthreaded cores. (Just in case it needs to be said, Tile-Based Deferred Shading can be done on the GPU http://visual-computing.intel-research.net/art/publications/deferred_rendering/ )

 

[Ruskie]

Power7 probably doesn't make too much sense for them. As you say, they're best on the GPU side. I mean, aside from recent endeavours to shove as much graphics tasks to Cell, is there anything that really needs a massive CPU? i.e. Here's an ultra-beefy GPU with unified shaders, lol-threads, textures, triangles, tessellation, etc.... Just throw things at it, it'll take care of the scheduling and threading and what-not. Don't worry about needing to make up performance by off-loading to the CPU... Of course, I am speaking within the confines of a CPU-GPU budget for a console. And well, this does sound awfully familiar now doesn't it.

There is also the PC-console porting to consider as well. Just thinking aloud, but how many devs have actually made significant use of the CPU on PC based on SPU-graphics work, not just multi-threading needs as dictated by Waternoose's triple hyperthreaded cores.

Agreed.Nice,beefy,juicy GPU with a lot of bells and whistles would be another great design choice by MS They really outdid themselves with 360,its really designed for developers...to bad it had major RROD flaw.

 

[hoho]

They could just design a GPU that is about as general-purpose as Cell SPE's are and get nearly perfect setup. No need for super-fast CPU then

 

[liolio]

I'm not expecting Ms taking this route but if SPUs shine at something it's perfs per Watts they are pretty outstanding in this regard. I would bet they grossly outdo GPU at "mundane" calculations.

I don't expect either SOny to take that road but I've a feeling that something really "outlaw ish" in regard to nowadays standard hardware designs could surprise, in efficiency and performances.
(I think of those posts from Fafalada and Panajev2001a as back up for the assumption).

Another things so we look @ late 2013 or 2014 for next generation hardwares, it kind of sucks... (or better be impressive).

 

[AlNom]

I'm not expecting Ms taking this route but if SPUs shine at something it's perfs per Watts they are pretty outstanding in this regard. I would bet they grossly outdo GPU at "mundane" calculations.

I don't expect either SOny to take that road but I've a feeling that something really "outlaw ish" in regard to nowadays standard hardware designs could surprise, in efficiency and performances.
(I think of those posts from Fafalada and Panajev2001a as back up for the assumption).

mmm.... indeed. I do wonder how the current gen CPUs actually compare to more recent designs in the low power sector (Atom, Llano, ARM). Of course, even 45nm XCPU or Cell are still going to be an order of magnitude greater in power, but what if one scaled those particular designs up

Another things so we look @ late 2013 or 2014 for next generation hardwares, it kind of sucks... (or better be impressive).

At least we'll see what happens on the memory side of things. It's been pretty boring with GDDR5 for awhile. No hints on the next iteration.

At least as far as the 360 design philosophy went, it would be rather interesting to see the CPU be attached to the GPU right off the bat (because it'd start from a low-power design), and they could budget more for a potential off-die eDRAM.

-----------------

On a side note, regarding the job listing for future 360 developments (3rd link), I suppose we're not really done with the eDRAM. Based on measurements, we're still at 65nm for the Slim.

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1447163&postcount=239

The expected scaling from 64mm^2 @ 80nm to 65nm would be 42mm^2. We got ~45mm^2. Fair enough. Nothing is perfect, plus there are the ROPs and such to build. A hypothetical shift to 40nm would put that down to around 17-20mm^2. (TSMC 40nm production began in 2010)

hm.... A bit curious the article mentions 45nm, not 40nm for the CGPU. Anyways, scaling up for next gen using a similar design would still be... peculiar to imagine.

a) double or triple the ROPs, increased functionality e.g. texturing
b) quadrupling die size (@ imaginary 40nm) would bring it back to 360's original 80mm^2 for eDRAM @ 90nm.

30-40MB eDRAM @ 40nm, ~80mm^2

Give it a few more years for 28nm to ramp up... Could maybe hit 70-75MB @ 80mm^2 *shrug* Fun to think about it.

-----------------------------
Self-reminder to read sometime