I think they cannot afford to spend a dime to develop a new system for a few more years. Look at their financials. Their game division is in the black for 4 consecutive years and lost more than 4 billion dollars in total. You have to make some money first to burry more on a new system. Even if they start to make profit this year I don't see how they can develop their next generation system soon, which would make them lose more. Frankly, IMO PS4 before 2013/2014 seems impossible.
Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
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I think they cannot afford to spend a dime to develop a new system for a few more years. Look at their financials. Their game division is in the black for 4 consecutive years and lost more than 4 billion dollars in total. You have to make some money first to burry more on a new system. Even if they start to make profit this year I don't see how they can develop their next generation system soon, which would make them lose more. Frankly, IMO PS4 before 2013/2014 seems impossible.
corduroygt
Banned
You're right, and here's why you shouldn't be expecting a PS4 soon, and also why you shouldn't expect a price cut for the PS3 anytime soon:
Alright, here's a bold prediction taken straight from my ass . . . the next console will be a joint venture between Sony and MS. Sony does the hardware and MS provides the dev tools and online integration. They share costs and work out a revenue deal. Publishers, developers, and retailers LOVE it because there is only a single platform to target, optimize for, and allocate shelf space for.
Console war is over. Fanboys cry. Life is good.
Console war is over. Fanboys cry. Life is good.
ihamoitc2005
Veteran
Miscalculation
Some of the loss is because of support for other divisions and Sony mgmt accounts for this.
I think they will make the calculations for PS4 release based on a lot of things but also assistance (like before) to other divisions like TV, consumer electronics, movies, and music.
You're right, and here's why you shouldn't be expecting a PS4 soon, and also why you shouldn't expect a price cut for the PS3 anytime soon:
Some of the loss is because of support for other divisions and Sony mgmt accounts for this.
I think they will make the calculations for PS4 release based on a lot of things but also assistance (like before) to other divisions like TV, consumer electronics, movies, and music.
sweet dreams 
More seriously in regard to Sony situation I didn't take that out of my ass I read yesterday an article on the WSJ about Samsung they plan to grows significantly their market shares in the TV market in the upcoming years. analysts think it will drive the price lower. They state this will put pressure on Sony. Samsung ambition are higher and higher, I also read some months ago that they were" to invest ~20 billions (don't remember the exact number) for future development. They have a currency advantage on top of it (even if the Yen were to go back to more "standard" value). Put shortly Samsung is more and more a threatening giant (not only to Sony).
I don't expect them to enter the console market on their own, the purpose of my comment was to put some light on Sony overall situation.
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Microsoft is even in worst situation, because they are 6b $ below the line as a xbox division.
And even if they're having profits [300-400m$ per year], that's just too slow for getting to 0$ balance before next gen [probably 2013]. Which will, of course, definitely sink more money from division.
Sony started showing profits too [since Slim] and they are still over the line [300-400m$ as company not division though]. Sony's Playstation is prepared better for next-gen, because they've got Cell already, and its cheap for produce [and will be even cheaper soon - 32nm] , they've got blu-ray which also is cheap to produce and Nvidia after RSX failure probably has some commitments to Sony.
Even if Sony goes with simple road in getting 2x Cell/Cell2, 2gb DDR5 and mid-end fermi from 2012 - PS4 will still be at least 6-7 more powerfull than PS3 and it will be probably cost about 300$ to produce - quite cheap for starting machine [and they dont have to worry about loss on every console].
With great SPE libraries like MLAA, depth of field, motion blur, triangle occuling, EDGE, PhyreEngine and many multiplatform engines behind [Frostbite, CryEngine 3, UE 3] they wont have problems with 3rd party developers.
From Microsoft perspective they need to catch up in terms of performance and in terms of disc capacity, so they have to spend money [that they dont have as a division] for a research.
I think Microsoft's weapon for surviving, as a xbox brand, is putting all resources to promote Kinect to take some of cake from Wii's casual market and those enormous incomes Nintendo has this gen.
If they'll manage to increase profits from xbox division to about 800m-1.2b $ per years - we will see, hardcore and high performance console from Microsoft, otherwise they'll probably go Wii's route to get those 6b $ out of a hole.
I wouldn't be too concerned about Microsoft's finances. They make billions of dollars in profits every quarter, don't they? Investors don't care if one division is losing money, if the company as a whole is reaping billions. Microsoft can cheaply and easily add BluRay to their next console. Sony and Microsoft would be on even footing to secure a next-gen GPU. I highly doubt that Nvidia owes Sony anything for the "failure" of RSX. As for CPU, we'll only know if Cell is an advantage depending on what the next xbox ends up with They may go with a lesser CPU and go the GPU heavy route with GPGPU functionality. Microsoft is not going to go the Wii route. The xbox was Microsoft's strategy to find their way into the living room, and they'll eat that cost to maintain their position and push more content into the living room.
corduroygt
Banned
Did you just say Fermi and cheap to produce in the same sentence?
Really? :> http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_24/b4182036703891.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStoriesScott_Arm said:
We live in business world not Utopia, if You dont see profits from 9 years of investments You dont want such division - its simple, especially when You loss 6b $ instead just locate them in bank or in exchange and gets 5%+ profits.
Yes, but I was speaking about year 2013
Even current mid-end Fermis like GF GTX 465 costs less than 300$ in retail and are 4+ times more powerful than RSX.Really? :> http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_24/b4182036703891.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStories
We live in business world not Utopia, if You dont see profits from 9 years of investments You dont want such division - its simple, especially when You loss 6b $ instead just locate them in bank or in exchange and gets 5%+ profits.
Yes, but I was speaking about year 2013
Well, I guess I might be wrong about the investors then. I never would have guessed that many investors would be that upset about it, but if the stock price has really dropped that far, then I guess it's understandable. I still don't see any company being in a better position financially than Microsoft to be in the console business, except for Nintendo and maybe Apple. But we all know how quickly these things can turn around. PS3 lost huge money, and Nintendo fell from grace pretty badly with the Gamecube.
corduroygt
Banned
That article is the stupidest one I've ever read. MS already paid the price and made the investment and now the Xbox brings a profit overall. The losses happened in the past, and nothing can be changed about that, but why kill a business that reliably brings profit, even if that profit is insignificant compared to Windows/Office profits?
It'd be stupid to terminate it, look for how long Sony's been riding the PS2. The xbox has at least 5 more years in it that it'll generate profit before you need to spend a lot of money for R&D. Not to mention, they can still use an evolutionary design by doubling up the CPU and using a modern gpu and it'd be able to do anything that can be expected from a set top box/console.
It'd be stupid to terminate it, look for how long Sony's been riding the PS2. The xbox has at least 5 more years in it that it'll generate profit before you need to spend a lot of money for R&D. Not to mention, they can still use an evolutionary design by doubling up the CPU and using a modern gpu and it'd be able to do anything that can be expected from a set top box/console.
aaronspink
Veteran
Yes, but I was speaking about year 2013
2013, you mean when current mid-end fermi performance will be uncompetitive?
Microsoft's Online Xbox Sales Probably Topped $1 Billion
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ably-topped-1-billion-for-the-first-time.html
Microsoft's Xbox Live Is Making Boatloads Of Money On Virtual Goods
http://blogs.forbes.com/velocity/20...ox-live-is-making-boatloads-on-virtual-goods/
$625 million to $1.1 billion estimates? Microsoft may not ever get out of the hole completely, but they're seriously making one hell of a dent. I bet those same investors have a different view a month later.
Tommy McClain
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ably-topped-1-billion-for-the-first-time.html
Microsoft's Xbox Live Is Making Boatloads Of Money On Virtual Goods
http://blogs.forbes.com/velocity/20...ox-live-is-making-boatloads-on-virtual-goods/
$625 million to $1.1 billion estimates? Microsoft may not ever get out of the hole completely, but they're seriously making one hell of a dent. I bet those same investors have a different view a month later.
Tommy McClain
Of course I was talking about smth similar from 2013, but at that cost, so probably 50-60% faster than this GTX 465. We know that Sony likes to go beyond in terms of technology, but dont really think they can and that investors let them in next generation. They were very close to bankruptcy this gen.
I dont expect ps2-ps3 leap in terms of performance, but rather 10x better with great support from the beginning.
And for going beyond I cant really think about smth usefull. They already are 3D proof, they already has motion controller. TVs evolve rather to 1080p + no glasses 3D in terms of technology [1080p is sufficent enought for <50' TVs and most of us dont have place for greater panels], so they dont need so much more power in GPU to render beyond 1080p [that gtx 465 is efficent enought even on Windows in this resolution].
And we wont see real time ray-tracing in next gen for sure, maybe except next gen Polyphony's Gran Turismo - they were always ahead of others in terms of software magic ;] [we know they are making some tests with it right now].
You dont know how it works, do You? Just think about it. In this business You have limited time for generation and every new generation brings risk and sinks money at the beginning.corduroygt said:
For such a corporation, even if its not such profitable division like others, its still has own resources and those resources You could invest into smth different and more profitable or boost just other profitable division.
And investors dont look for promises but for numbers and results, if they're seeing low profits and probably next 5-8 years of pulling out from the hole [its not a profit, its getting back invested money] it doesnt look so bright.
That's why I wrote about Kinect. They wont just trash everything connected to xbox brand - it just too big, but they could completely change their strategy and somehow they're doing it now with Kinect and longer life cycle [+5-6 years] if they gonna pull of that hole even partially [to 1.5-2b loss for example], they'll probably get green light, but if not, they'll gonna change strategy again and they certainly wont take risk [Wii route?].
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Current PC GPUs are such colossal wastes of transistors for a closed box, and it's only getting worse with every iteration. I'd much rather see what could be achieved with FP24ish pixel processing, no integer bitshifts or any of that "GPGPU" nonsense, no vertex processing on the GPU, and all the saved transistors reinvested in sheer width.
Really? :> http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_24/b4182036703891.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStories
We live in business world not Utopia, if You dont see profits from 9 years of investments You dont want such division - its simple, especially when You loss 6b $ instead just locate them in bank or in exchange and gets 5%+ profits.
Yes, but I was speaking about year 2013
Profit or not, Microsoft will never leave the game console business. It is part of a big plan for company's future, when almost every home will have a form of electronic online entertainment device. Unless TV's themselves deliver these functionality for free there will always be demand for a device that combines online entertainment/networking, gaming and multimedia player functionality and Microsoft will not ignore that albeit for huge losses. Look at what happened when they were late at the handheld (iphone/ipod etc.) market. They have been struggling to enter the market for years with no signs of success.
aaronspink
Veteran
So, subpar performance, development hassles, and lots of wasted power waiting around for something to do. Yeah, that's a good idea for a console.
Why FP32? because its standard everywhere. It is consistent. Developers are familiar with it, it provides computational commonality with everything else.
Integer bit shifts? Its already in the pipeline, its basically free, and it has its uses.
No vertex processing because obviously you want everything to be slower right?
All the width in the world doesn't mean jack if you are just twiddling your thumbs because you can do anything better.
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