Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Rangers]

We've seen how having the 'best hardware' helped this generation. And the last. And the one before.... and on and on and on...

/sarcasm

Yes, it gave Xbox 360 and PS3 the entire hardcore market. A market btw, bigger than Wii's.

 

[London Geezer]

A market btw, bigger than Wii's.

... divided in two.
Anyway i really was only speaking financials. Going hardcore has left Sony for dead, MS is still ok. While Nintendo's financials, well we know them by now, especially compared to their pre-wii days.
Don't get me wrong i would never buy a Wii if my life depended on it, and my PS3 is my new baby, just talking business here.

 

[Duck Dodgers]

Imho Sony would be completely crazy to let Ms and Nintendo more than a two years head start. It would be close to suicidal.

Suicide how?

Considering it takes 3 to 4 years for console hardware to be really technologically pushed and the PS3 just starting to stretch into DX10 visuals with some exclusives I can't see the point of "updating" hardware to just "be there" with Microsoft and Nintendo that might have dx10/11 equivalent hardware.

If you make great entertainment experiences the grunt hardware doesn't matter as long as its cheap enough. If 2012 is going to be the next big leap in visuals I would more than bide my time on the GPU side of things to bring that into the next gen and stretch out the PS3 as much as I could.

Nintendo has created their own Nintendoverse and only need to bring this into the HD arena to re-start the whole saga. Beef the hardware modestly enough to deliver in this medium and support 3D. Don't fuck with the formula.

Microsoft can go for the "look at me, new hardware buy me thing" whilst PS3/Wii keep their shows firmly on the road.

 

[liolio]

I'm not sure I get where you're heading but I'll try answer you post.

Suicide how?

One year was already pretty bad for Sony this gen and they were lucky the RroD issue pretty affected the 360 momemtum.

Considering it takes 3 to 4 years for console hardware to be really technologically pushed and the PS3 just starting to stretch into DX10 visuals with some exclusives I can't see the point of "updating" hardware to just "be there" with Microsoft and Nintendo that might have dx10/11 equivalent hardware.

If you make great entertainment experiences the grunt hardware doesn't matter as long as its cheap enough. If 2012 is going to be the next big leap in visuals I would more than bide my time on the GPU side of things to bring that into the next gen and stretch out the PS3 as much as I could.

First I don't get what you mean by reaching directx10 graphic. Other than that if it makes no sense for Sony to update its hardware the same old true for MS (Wii is another matter is really out dated). The next jump in graphic quality will happen when a next generation system will launch, middleware/engine providers are no longer tied to to MS graphic API evolution. The shift will happen when the first potent enough system will ship.
The first system to hit the street will clearly benefit from this, engine will be designed fine tune for it. See the talk about ATI hardware being in the hand of developpers for more than six months now and it could affect Nvidia but that's just six month and Nvidia is till king of the hill in many ways. Taking all in account (instal based, software maturity) shipping two years after a competitor is indeed close to suicidal, they could end starting lagging 25 millions units behind their competitors.

Nintendo has created their own Nintendoverse and only need to bring this into the HD arena to re-start the whole saga. Beef the hardware modestly enough to deliver in this medium and support 3D. Don't fuck with the formula.

I don't get expect Nintendo to go with gimped hardware for the sake of it. Nintendo will do what makes financial sense whic at the time could prove different from a modest update even if don't expect Nintendo to launch the top hardware, the longer the Wii lasts the lesser the chances for a modest upgrade. Why use gimped hardware when compute power turns out cheaper and cheaper?

Microsoft can go for the "look at me, new hardware buy me thing" whilst PS3/Wii keep their shows firmly on the road.

??? Microsoft is now the second actor in the video game realm, if they launch a product it can't be seen as a "look at me" move it will have a huge impact on console market, pc market too (middleware/engine vendors will ship their new tech based on system capability) and imho on how multi-platform will be developed no matter competitors hardware merit.

 

[Tahir2]

With Natal and Move I suspect that Microsoft and Sony are seeking to add increased longevity to their current consoles.

I am going to go for a 2012 release for both companies, giving at least 18 months for their new controllers to try and increase mindshare.

If Natal and Move are a big expensive flop, and they certainly could be, I reserve the right do change my prediction.

Nintendo will enter with a new console design only when Wii sales begin to stagnate and their complex market algorithms tell them when the optimal time is to launch a new console... in other words at the moment, "Computer says "No!""

 

[aaronspink]

They will either have to come up with some innovation that people will go crazy over or go for performance.

Actually, they are probably best off going for easy to develop for. THAT is their major problem currently. Well that and having to use an oh crap our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd plans for 3d are broken, quick run out and get anything that will do 3D.

 

[NeoTechni]

I predict, thanks to Wii, we'll get a smaller leap forward technologically.
Wii taught MS/Sony where the money is.

PSP2/720/PS4 will all just be faster versions of the same processors. No more exotic ones like Cell was then.

 

[grandmaster]

I predict, thanks to Wii, we'll get a smaller leap forward technologically.
Wii taught MS/Sony where the money is.

PSP2/720/PS4 will all just be faster versions of the same processors. No more exotic ones like Cell was then.

Nope, if Wii taught MS/Sony where the money is, it's in innovating existing hardware rather than going to all the expense of a new console launch. Higher frame-rates and higher resolution won't sell games, much as we at B3D would like them to. Wii was about a new concept above all.

You look at Battlefield Bad Company 2 and it is clear that the existing consoles can keep pace where it matters with high-end PC gaming.

I expect a new console launch when there is a reason for doing so and right now the technological leap isn't really worth it. Secondly, "where the money is" right now is in recouping the investment in the current gen technology which was probably significantly higher than it really needed to be for the time it launched.

 

[aaronspink]

I predict, thanks to Wii, we'll get a smaller leap forward technologically.
Wii taught MS/Sony where the money is.

A large first party IP library that has been beloved for 20+ years and lots of in house designers so that 95% of all software sales are first party? Really cheap development costs for your first party designers?

Its like some hollywood studio deciding they are going to copy disney and that will make them successful. It doesn't work that way.

 

[ShadowRunner]

Actually, they are probably best off going for easy to develop for. THAT is their major problem currently. Well that and having to use an oh crap our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd plans for 3d are broken, quick run out and get anything that will do 3D.

You cant launch a new console on the back of it being easy to develop for. Not really sure what you are getting at.

 

[Brimstone]

102 Pages, thats alot of reading, only read about 3 of them. The way I see it is like this.
Wii2-2011-2012
Xbox720-2012
PS4-2014-2016
Nintendo and Mircosoft are gonna try to milk enough money out of these consoles. Sonys gonna try to make money on there system, which they haven't done yet, that being they'll be the last out of the gate. There gonna watch and learn and try to see what the other two are up to and how they can figure out a way to beat them in the next round. Nintendo will need to up grade to at least 2-3 times the power of the 360, that would be huge for them. Xbox 720 will not come out till 2012, not 2011 2012 it wil come out or beond that. You have to remember that 2012 Mass Effect 3 comes out and there gonna try to milk the effects of this hit to sell as many 360s as they can. Heck they might not release the 720 till 2013. The Wii2, 720 will have some type of PM and have backwards cb. 720 might also come out with a ddl only system, and one that does some type of usb, ssd, maybe even a flash memory. Maybe they will bring back HDDDVD, or go blu-ray. Who knows. I'm guessing though that they will have some type of PM, cause making just a ddl, would be suicide. Half the 360s in the usa aren't online, only about 40% of them are. Same goes for the PS4, and they have less people online than 360. Look it up if you don't belive me. Internet just isn't going to be there by the time these systems come out, if they want to go complete ddl. DDL won't come until the following gen at least. Even then, we may only see a verison of there PM system, that is complete DDL. DDL, would ruin the business, sure stops piracy, and used game sales, so what? If you complain about used game sales, who cares? If your complaing aound used game sales then the game your making must truly be a second class, even a third class title. PM will be around longer than you think. PM won't go away anytime soon. What do you think Walmart, gamestop, and the rest of these stores will do? They won't sell them, and if they do the'll just jack the price up to make up for there loses. DDL will be on the system, but PM will be around for this next gen. Less than Half the US doesn't have high speed internet. And don't forget about the speed and the caps. Say COD9 comes out, and it was DDL only, it would destory the net. PM will be aound for decades to come. They just have to decide what direction to go. Make a better disc, or use some type of USB, or something. Will we ever go complete DDL, maybe, in 20 years. And for those who think that DDL will happen this gen, look at this, look at the world, and you tell me, how many people have fast internet that goes 50MB+, and has no caps? Tell me this how long would it take to down load a game like MGS4 thats 50 gigs? People won't put up with this sort of crap, and it will fail. And if a game goes 100s of gigi, maybe even a TB, people won't put up with this, it will fail, its not gonna happen. I laugh at someone who says that DDL is gonna be all the systems next gen, sorry not gonna happen look at the facts. Heck by 2020s we may have a 4TB disc, think DDL still gonna happen? Maybe if the internet is up to par, but if its not, its not gonna go DDL. PM all the way. Oh and Sony, will not release the PS4 until, they make money on the PS and fix there PSNetwork. I wounldn't be suprized if all the next gen systems have some sort of motion, sound, 3D-4D contoller at launch.

Holographic Disc technology from General Electric will probably be the foundation for the optical drive in XB720. Disc capacity of 500 Gigabytes and transfer rates around 100 megabytes per second.


A hard drive won't come standard.

 

[thop]

A large first party IP library that has been beloved for 20+ years and lots of in house designers so that 95% of all software sales are first party?

Only 95% of all first party sales are by Nintendo?

 

[Squilliam]

Nope, if Wii taught MS/Sony where the money is, it's in innovating existing hardware rather than going to all the expense of a new console launch. Higher frame-rates and higher resolution won't sell games, much as we at B3D would like them to. Wii was about a new concept above all.

You look at Battlefield Bad Company 2 and it is clear that the existing consoles can keep pace where it matters with high-end PC gaming.

I expect a new console launch when there is a reason for doing so and right now the technological leap isn't really worth it. Secondly, "where the money is" right now is in recouping the investment in the current gen technology which was probably significantly higher than it really needed to be for the time it launched.

If in say Microsofts case where you need to wait for peripheral technology to catch up between 3DTV adoption and improvements in camera technology what do you do in the intervening 5 years between the release of Natal and the next generation camera technology which has the framerate and resolution to truely bring the interface to life?

If you're already moving towards say making use of very wide ALU arrays and have learnt the lesson from the PS3 that unique architectures take time to work out and putting pressure on developers in a time limited sense to catch up can have negative consequences on how your platform is received then what do you do?

If the only major expense to upgrade the hardware is a fixed R+D cost but that has no negative consequences otherwise, then what is the harm? If the next generation hardware is that far into the future then why not make baby steps now towards that end goal? Since they are already reworking the chip to considerable lengths then why not update the hardware inside the GPU a little to give developers an avenue to experiment with 3D and GPGPU before a system which takes full advantage of both is released?

 

[aaronspink]

You cant launch a new console on the back of it being easy to develop for. Not really sure what you are getting at.

Oh? You realize that is one of the primary advantages of the 360 over the PS3 right? Development difficulty is a BIG factor in both the quality and quantity of games produced for a platform vs the competition.

 

[aaronspink]

expense to upgrade the hardware is a fixed R+D cost but that has no negative consequences otherwise, then what is the harm? If the next generation hardware is that far into the future then why not make baby steps now towards that end goal? Since they are already reworking the chip to considerable lengths then why not update the hardware inside the GPU a little to give developers an avenue to experiment with 3D and GPGPU before a system which takes full advantage of both is released?

because you fragment your market and limit the return both for yourself and developers and you already have a system that allows developers to experiment with 3D and GPGPU called the PC which you also control?

 

[SG79]

Holographic Disc technology from General Electric will probably be the foundation for the optical drive in XB720. Disc capacity of 500 Gigabytes and transfer rates around 100 megabytes per second.


A hard drive won't come standard.

I'm not sure if MS would be interested in pushing new tech that won't be cheap by any means. They'll go for an existing technology that's becoming cheaper by each passing year, and it'll be BD.

One year was already pretty bad for Sony this gen and they were lucky the RroD issue pretty affected the 360 momemtum.

Not that I'm disagreeing that launching a PS3 successor much later is a good idea, but what happened to Sony this gen is their own doing. They came in as market leaders with the PS2 and blew it by the outrageous MSRP of the PS3. It's actually almost miraculous that there is a mere 6 million gap between them and MS worldwide.

Anyway, grandmaster hit the nail on the head. Neither MS or Sony are in any rush to push out new tech when you consider the havoc their consoles wreaked on their bottom lines for different reasons. People write off Sony's "10 year plan" as poppycock , but despite what happens with the successor, both them and MS will keep their current consoles on the market as long as they can. These are businesses after all.

Look at the PS2. Sure, it's irrelevant now as a platform and has been after the release of GOWII, but it's been adding something to the company's bottom line since and it turned 10 years old earlier in the month in Japan.

 

[Brimstone]

I'm not sure if MS would be interested in pushing new tech that won't be cheap by any means. They'll go for an existing technology that's becoming cheaper by each passing year, and it'll be BD.

The electronic guts will almost be the same as Blu-Ray, so cost to the console is minimal. The difference is how the discs are constructed. This is where General Electric made the technology breakthrough. The challenge is getting the cost to manufacture a read-only holographic disc down to the same level as Blu-Ray.


Going with a holographic disc will help thwart piracy. This is what publishers/developers will like most.

Also if the console has 2 Gigabytes or more of system RAM, the loading times using Blu-Ray would be terrible. A holographic disc data rate of around 100 megabytes per second is much more reasonable. Plus developers can stream at that rate as well.

 

[SG79]

The electronic guts will almost be the same as Blu-Ray, so cost to the console is minimal. The difference is how the discs are constructed. This is where General Electric made the technology breakthrough. The challenge is getting the cost to manufacture a read-only holographic disc down to the same level as Blu-Ray.


Going with a holographic disc will help thwart piracy. This is what publishers/developers will like most.

Also if the console has 2 Gigabytes or more of system RAM, the loading times using Blu-Ray would be terrible. A holographic disc data rate of around 100 megabytes per second is much more reasonable. Plus developers can stream at that rate as well.

Well, I'm sure GE simplified their claims last year, so we'll just wait and see if the cost issue is as minimal as they claimed. Even then, BD will be cheaper by then with better data transfer rates than the 2X drive in the PS3.

Naturally more storage is better, so is the longevity and the transfer rate (I dig the longevity aspect). It did take the BDA a while to get decent yields, so mass production will be a hurdle, especially if doesn't move beyond the storage use. BD's market share after 4 years is nowhere near DVD's, and they're likely not eager to push another format on consumers for at least another 6-7 years. They're just starting the 3D push this year.

 

[Grall]

Suicide how?

When new hardware launches devs will start targetting it. Since this new hardware will in most likelihood be a significant step up from the old, that means new titles can't be easily ported to older hardware, leaving the PS3 SOL from a multi-platform standpoint.

Since multi-platform titles are at least as important today as they've ever been that would be a harsh blow for them. Older generations of hardware are rarely supported for very long once a new generation launches - as successful as the PS2 was, not many titles were created for it once PS3 came out, and the PS2 caused the N64 to implode.

MS is now the most successful gaming company. Nintendo earns more money, but in range of titles - particulary where 3rd parties are concerned - they rule. Arguably they rule in mindset also, with their strong multiplayer infrastructure and online store (xbox live), achievements crap etc.

MS has the wallet to just iterate and iterate, blowing money as they go along, until they get things sufficiently right to just commandeer the market outright. This is what they're doing to consoles right now. You turn your back to them and ignore them at your own peril.

 

[thop]

MS is now the most successful gaming company.

Grall
Location: La-la land