Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[fehu]

http://www.anandtech.com/storage/showdoc.aspx?i=3731



3bit mlc are good for the cache teory?
By 2011 im can produce cheap chip chiap at 25nm 3bit for 122mm2 ~+200MB/s, two of this for 16GB, and when the new process is available and cheap enought, halve the traces and put in a single ~100mm2 16GB chip

Maybe when new process is available in 2015 they can keep the 16GB size and buy custom sub 50mm2 chips

 

[ban25]

A flash-based cache simply doesn't make sense. To cache it, you have to read it, so you're paying the read cost once already, and if it's too small you will be paying that cost over and over. If writes are too slow (as might be the case for MLC), then it could wind up being slower. That money would probably be better spent on a faster, larger HDD.

 

[fehu]

I can't see how a nextgen mlc can be slower than a 2,5" hdd

 

[specwarGP2]

Instead of a $60 Disc based game that I can get on Amazon for $50, I'd be willing to get $40 digital version. The digital version has to be cheaper for it to be attractive, since you can't sell or trade it. I don't know how the financials would work out regarding bandwidth costs and such, but I wonder if that would be just as profitable for the developers.

First of all, publishers aren't going to sell DD versions cheaper, even if physical media went away completely. I can understand why publishers want to get rid of physical media... What I dont get is why end users want to get rid of physical media. It makes no sense unless they must be rich and be able to afford to buy every single game that they want at full price.

 

[Prophecy2k]

First of all, publishers aren't going to sell DD versions cheaper, even if physical media went away completely. I can understand why publishers want to get rid of physical media... What I dont get is why end users want to get rid of physical media. It makes no sense unless they must be rich and be able to afford to buy every single game that they want at full price.

Thank you kindly my friend!!!

This has been puzzling me profoundly since I first started visiting internet forums and hearing the views of other gamers in the world outside of my close circle of friends.

The benefits of DD only distribution vs physical media, taking a very realistic view with a regard to product pricing in a DD-only world, don't in any way stack up comparatively against the negatives (i.e. pubs will charge what they want and you WILL cough up, e.g. MW-next will indeed end up £70).

The used-game market is great for the consumer (and the only way i could have played even half the games i played on PS2 - since i was a cheap, broke student at the time). It's bad for publishers... granted... and in that it certainly hurts developers (how many dev studios wouldn't have gone bust this gen if all media was DD?... an intriguing thought). Then again though, what's to even say that consumers would even buy more or even the same amount of content in a wholey DD world?

Every gamer i know definitely wouldn't... unless the pricing of titles was considerably less than what we have now.

 

[wco81]

Not only that, you only have one storefront, so the pricing competition is missing. You don't have WalMart equivalents slashing prices to drive traffic into the store so that you buy more high-margin products in the same trip.

They could give publishers flexibility to adjust prices quickly but until DD becomes their primary source of revenues, they're not going to try to wage any price wars.

And publishers and developers are kidding themselves if they think getting rid of the used market through DD results in more sales at initial-release prices. People will wait until prices drop or they just won't buy at all, because a certain segment of the market buys games at release with the plan to sell it when they finish playing. So they're thinking of their cost as $20 or whatever the difference between what they buy it for and what they sell it for.

 

[Squilliam]

And publishers and developers are kidding themselves if they think getting rid of the used market through DD results in more sales at initial-release prices. People will wait until prices drop or they just won't buy at all, because a certain segment of the market buys games at release with the plan to sell it when they finish playing. So they're thinking of their cost as $20 or whatever the difference between what they buy it for and what they sell it for.

What about game rental for around $15-20. If all they are doing is essentially renting a title then why not give the option of doing just that?

Say, pay $20 to rent the game, and if they like it that much they can pay a further $40-50 and own the licence for life?

 

[Boxercide]

What about game rental for around $15-20. If all they are doing is essentially renting a title then why not give the option of doing just that?

Say, pay $20 to rent the game, and if they like it that much they can pay a further $40-50 and own the licence for life?

Again, why let somebody potentially like the game but maybe not and end up only paying $20 to find out when you can make them pay $60 to find out AND boost your sales numbers?

You are arguing from a consumer standpoint, which is fairly naive.

 

[specwarGP2]

Not only that, you only have one storefront, so the pricing competition is missing. You don't have WalMart equivalents slashing prices to drive traffic into the store so that you buy more high-margin products in the same trip.

Exactly! You can get some really great deals on games from places like Amazon. I bought Uncharted 2 for $55 AND got a $20 credit towards a future game purchase. Not only do you get price competition from retailers, you can also get preorder schwag as well. I highly doubt any of this would exist in a DD only world.

 

[swaaye]

Not only that, you only have one storefront, so the pricing competition is missing. You don't have WalMart equivalents slashing prices to drive traffic into the store so that you buy more high-margin products in the same trip.

That's not true at all. There are several stores. If digital distrib becomes more popular, you can bet on companies coming out of the woodwork.

Off the top of my head, for PC:
Steam
Impulse
Best Buy
Good Old Games
Direct2Drive
EA Store
Amazon is working on it

You guys are letting ignorance and fear IMO get the best of you.

And I've already said that Steam has had deals in the past few months on older titles that you can't beat very easily. Combos packs, massive price reductions for a day, etc. It's more exciting and a better deal than driving to Walmart. Steam had a collection of all Ubisoft titles for like $30, if I recall correctly. They do that kind of thing frequently. This weekend I got all XCom games for $2 total on there.

The "gotta have the box and disc" mentality is lost on me too in this age of DVD cases with nearly zero content beyond the DVD itself anyway. And, you also get the advantage of not needing a noisy optical disk spinning away to play your game. Nothing that can get scratched up, too.

On the PC, game resale is essentially dead anyway with the DRM and serial key bullshit that has been jammed down our throats. On consoles I can see how that aspect would be a concern though. This is why I don't buy high priced, brand new games much anymore. That and I am just patient enough to wait a long time. There is always some game that I can play in the meantime.

 

[specwarGP2]

That's not true at all. There are several stores. If digital distrib becomes more popular, you can bet on companies coming out of the woodwork.

That all depends on the platform holders. If they decide that content can only be installed from their own store, then what? Only end users benefit from price competition, so why allow it?

 

[Blazkowicz]

I can't see how a nextgen mlc can be slower than a 2,5" hdd

it depends on the quality you're going after.
I expect next gen 3bit MLC memory cards and thumb drives to write under 10MB/s.

 

[grandmaster]

Flash *is* slow. SSDs are fast because multiple cells are written in parallel - sort of like an onboard RAID-0 system. That said, even cheapie 16GB USB thumb drives are getting 10MB/s write performance if you choose the right ones.

 

[Prophecy2k]

That's not true at all. There are several stores. If digital distrib becomes more popular, you can bet on companies coming out of the woodwork.

Off the top of my head, for PC:
Steam
Impulse
Best Buy
Good Old Games
Direct2Drive
EA Store
Amazon is working on it

You guys are letting ignorance and fear IMO get the best of you.

And I've already said that Steam has had deals in the past few months on older titles that you can't beat very easily. Combos packs, massive price reductions for a day, etc. It's more exciting and a better deal than driving to Walmart. Steam had a collection of all Ubisoft titles for like $30, if I recall correctly. They do that kind of thing frequently. This weekend I got all XCom games for $2 total on there.

The "gotta have the box and disc" mentality is lost on me too in this age of DVD cases with nearly zero content beyond the DVD itself anyway. And, you also get the advantage of not needing a noisy optical disk spinning away to play your game. Nothing that can get scratched up, too.

On the PC, game resale is essentially dead anyway with the DRM and serial key bullshit that has been jammed down our throats. On consoles I can see how that aspect would be a concern though. This is why I don't buy high priced, brand new games much anymore. That and I am just patient enough to wait a long time. There is always some game that I can play in the meantime.

But... we're primarily talking about the console space anyway... PC is effectively a primarily DD platform already (well... i don't know any PC gamer who actually buys DVD cases anymore).

It's on consoles where platform holders call the shots. Consoles aren't an open platform like PC and so if MS and Sony refuse to share their profits with other online retailers with a DD-only platform (and i don't see any reason for them to) then no other company can come from anywhere and do anything.

On consoles its the platform holders that hold the cards, and its this market segment that would have a seriously bitten & annoyed consumerbase if it went DD-only.

 

[wco81]

Flash *is* slow. SSDs are fast because multiple cells are written in parallel - sort of like an onboard RAID-0 system. That said, even cheapie 16GB USB thumb drives are getting 10MB/s write performance if you choose the right ones.

Brands and models?

Actually, isn't USB3 or some other faster IO ports due soon? Of course it may take awhile for peripherals to take advantage of the faster interface.

 

[Brimstone]

With Samsung paying out $900 million to Rambus, $200 million of it a direct investment into Rambus, the possibility for the XBOX 720 using XDR2 is much greater now.

 

[NRP]

Why? Is Samsung somehow involved with the nextbox? Have there been any announcements about MS' next hardware?

 

[Boxercide]

I'd think the Rambus investment to be more interesting for a potential PS4....

 

[fehu]

The use of xdr2 instead of gddr5 can solve the "4GB of ram on a reasonable bus"?

 

[liolio]

I'd think the Rambus investment to be more interesting for a potential PS4....

Why?