Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[liolio]

Just double the VRAM?

Actually their figures are weird in some place, they say 512MB of VRAM that would allow for 256MB worse of bandwidth, it doesn't exist that why I think first they were speaking of the 360 as a whole.
Actually it looks more like a mixed bag of what xenos/GF shortly GPU could offer at the time ps360 launched.
Twice the VRAM would 1GB actually neither the 360 or the ps3 have 512MB of VRAM to begin with .

And their figures for fillrate make the edram route impossible, they are speaking of larrabee or what they expect its competitors to be (software renderer enable class of VPU ) . It's prospective they have to be aware of what the tech could be.
Or it could be that MS is working along with ATI on a massively multicore VPU but it's too far streched

 

[NRP]

(why waste silicon to make bad code run well when you can spend it making good code run even better..)

Oh, I don't know . . . perhaps because it's easier to work with, thus reducing both dev time and costs?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Oh, I don't know . . . perhaps because it's easier to work with, thus reducing both dev time and costs?

Oh come now, obviously hand tuning with machine code every line of source code for a game would take virtually no time.

BTW - I'm agreeing with you NRP.

But I always get a kick out of people that think all devs are lazy and can't program just because they use high level languages.

Regards,
SB

 

[NRP]

I read a "best practices" article from MS talking about the LHS latency penalty, and it seems like even really simple code can trigger huge problems. Moreover, the corresponding "correct" code to avoid the LHS penalty seemed pretty complicated and unintuituve (at first glance anyway). I'm guessing this is at least part of the reason why Carmack et al said the 3.2 GHz 360 cpu actually performs more like a 1.6 GHz cpu.

 

[Megadrive1988]

Specs aside, what I want out of next-gen XB3,PS4 consoles, are games that look like the CG Crysis Core-X video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW5b2_rfrUY

Whether it takes 10x, 20x or 100x the performance of 360/PS3, just make it happen ^__^

 

[ninelven]

~10x for 30fps, so you'll get what you want...

 

[liolio]

This is interesting, to me "powerful" resonate with the idea of next generation systems launching late 2012/13. We may see interesting thing dependin on how well process are evolving

 

[Megadrive1988]

Next Xbox (not coming next year) to be based around Stereoscopic 3D:

http://xbox360.gamespy.com/articles/995/995135p1.html
http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/19960/Rumor-New-Xbox-Console-in-2010-We-Tell-You-the-Truth/

Our good friends at TeamXbox are reporting that recent rumors of a new Xbox console releasing in 2010 are false. The reason that a new Xbox console won't replace the Xbox 360 next year is apparently because then Microsoft takes the plunge and releases a successor, it'll support stereoscopic 3D technology.

The article goes on to say that the current crop of TV technology isn't able to support this potentially intriguing feature yet, so Microsoft is hamstrung until TVs capable of displaying stereoscopic 3D images are commonplace.

While it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Microsoft's new Natal camera tech could see a revision in the current Xbox 360 hardware launch sometime next year, a full-on Xbox 360 successor is surely a couple of years away at the very least.

...in addition to built-in Natal tech, a key feature of the next Xbox would be full HD stereoscopic 3D visuals similar to 3D movie theatres.

Need more 120 Hz sets in the wild, but I'm all for stereoscopic 3D being a key feature of the next-gen Xbox in 2011-2013.

 

[manux]

Next Xbox (not coming next year) to be based around Stereoscopic 3D:

http://xbox360.gamespy.com/articles/995/995135p1.html
http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/19960/Rumor-New-Xbox-Console-in-2010-We-Tell-You-the-Truth/





Need more 120 Hz sets in the wild, but I'm all for stereoscopic 3D being a key feature of the next-gen Xbox in 2011-2013.

There is already quite a bit of discussion of this topic in thread http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=54390&page=3 starting from post 63. Perhaps stereoscopic 3d could be splitted to a new thread?

 

[Barbarian]

Or you write your code to avoid incurring load-hit-store penalties in the first place.. It's just good practice..

(why waste silicon to make bad code run well when you can spend it making good code run even better..)

LHS penalty is often unavoidable even if you're the most brilliant programmer in the world. That pretty much screams for hardware solution.

 

[RudeCurve]

Back to the topic of data transfer speeds from ODDs, how about bringing back those True-X multi-laser DVD drives?

 

[grandmaster]

There is already quite a bit of discussion of this topic in thread http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=54390&page=3 starting from post 63. Perhaps stereoscopic 3d could be splitted to a new thread?

There already is a stereoscopic 3D thread I started a long while back.

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=51270

In common with a lot of the tech stories we see floating about, it may well be that the discussion here evolves into full-on rumours elsewhere.

 

[cbarcus]

In summary of 3 years of posting...

After three years of speculation about the new platforms, we are approaching the end of the 5-year console cycle. Of course, Sony and Microsoft do not have to release any new machines in the 2010-2011 time frame, but I'm guessing that they will and that they may look like this:

The next Xbox in 2010 (based largely upon a recent rumor pointed out in this thread):

IBM Xenon w/6 cores @ 45nm @ 3.5 Ghz (likely cache size?)
AMD Shader 5 GPU w/32mb EDRAM @ 600 Mhz
1 GB of GDDR5
~100 GB/s bandwidth
32 GB SSD
20x DVD drive?
Natal motion-sensing tech
$300


The next Playstation in 2011:

2 GBs main memory & 1 GB GPU memory
Cell w/32-64 SPEs and 4-8 PPEs @ 28nm @ 3-5 Ghz
100's of GB/s bandwidth
Nvidia-derived GPU
160 GB drive?
16x Blu-ray (can read 200+ GB discs)?
$400?

Does this seem reasonable? Anything important missing?

If Microsoft does indeed bring new hardware next year, it seems likely that it'll be based on current 45 nm fabrication. If Microsoft launches in 2010, we can expect Sony to be right behind. Recent news indicates that IBM and company are forgoing 32nm for 28nm, and it sounds like it will be ready to go by 2011. Rambus has just demonstrated an implementation of part of their new XDR memory system. Anyone heard anything else?

 

[grandmaster]

Both consoles will launch at the same price, and I'd expect both to be using BD drives. Both consoles will be engineered with price in mind and R&D efforts will move from how amazing the silicon is to innovations in gameplay experiences.

Bearing in mind that nobody has heard anything about the next gen, I reckon we're looking at 2012... Christmas 2011 *maybe*, but probably not. Indeed, this whole next generation thing could be pushed back as the R&D money is pumped into getting more out of the current gen, eg Natal.

Wii has a lot to answer for! But the bottom line is that the core tech there is 10 years old and it's outselling PS3 and 360 combined.

 

[cbarcus]

Both consoles will launch at the same price, and I'd expect both to be using BD drives. Both consoles will be engineered with price in mind and R&D efforts will move from how amazing the silicon is to innovations in gameplay experiences.

A Blu-ray drive in the next Xbox would be interesting, but I'd be surprised if MS went that route. I believe they'll try and get more out of DVD and downloading- keeping in line with PC development and keeping costs down. Have many of Microsoft's developers been asking for a BD device?

Bearing in mind that nobody has heard anything about the next gen, I reckon we're looking at 2012... Christmas 2011 *maybe*, but probably not. Indeed, this whole next generation thing could be pushed back as the R&D money is pumped into getting more out of the current gen, eg Natal.

MS didn't officially announce the 360 until May 2005, some six months before launch (if Wikipedia serves). When did Beyond3D get a whiff of what was up? June 2004? How much do you think motion control development is costing? Over 100 million? Again, I believe the Xbox will keep somewhat in line with PC development by getting an updated GPU.

Wii has a lot to answer for! But the bottom line is that the core tech there is 10 years old and it's outselling PS3 and 360 combined.

Yes, and it certainly has taken many of us by surprise, but I believe the 360 and PS3 are serving a different market. By adding motion control, they can possibly attract more interest.

 

[ShadowWolf64]

A Blu-ray drive in the next Xbox would be interesting, but I'd be surprised if MS went that route. I believe they'll try and get more out of DVD and downloading- keeping in line with PC development and keeping costs down. Have many of Microsoft's developers been asking for a BD device?



MS didn't officially announce the 360 until May 2005, some six months before launch (if Wikipedia serves). When did Beyond3D get a whiff of what was up? June 2004? How much do you think motion control development is costing? Over 100 million? Again, I believe the Xbox will keep somewhat in line with PC development by getting an updated GPU.



Yes, and it certainly has taken many of us by surprise, but I believe the 360 and PS3 are serving a different market. By adding motion control, they can possibly attract more interest.

I highly doubt that MS is going to release a upgraded spec xbox next year as that would cut into the 360's sales and that is not going to happen.Natal is going to extend the lifespan of the 360 and is not a new console from MS.MS is planning on a rebirth for the 360 because of Natal and that is why they are treating it like a new console release.

I believe the next xbox won't be out by at least 2011 or 2012 though.

 

[grandmaster]

A Blu-ray drive in the next Xbox would be interesting, but I'd be surprised if MS went that route. I believe they'll try and get more out of DVD and downloading- keeping in line with PC development and keeping costs down. Have many of Microsoft's developers been asking for a BD device?

The future is cross-platform development and that will require parity of the storage platform. More than that if the two consoles do debut for the same pricepoint (which trust me, they will) Microsoft will be left at a disadvantage if one system runs HD movies and the other doesn't.

With Xbox 360 often maxing out the dual layer DVD, more storage space is going to be required for higher quality textures at 1080p and indeed 1080p streaming movies.

 

[archangelmorph]

In any case with the big push of Digital Distribution currently underway I'd be surprised to see the next consoles from either party have any less than about 300-1000GB of HDD storage space in total (SSD and/or Magnetic Disc)..

 

[milan616]

IBM Xenon w/6 cores @ 45nm @ 3.5 Ghz (likely cache size?)
AMD Shader 5 GPU w/32mb EDRAM @ 600 Mhz
1 GB of GDDR5
~100 GB/s bandwidth
32 GB SSD
20x DVD drive?
Natal motion-sensing tech
$300

The rumor has been debunked by MS, and such a modest upgrade doesn't seem likely.

The next Playstation in 2011:

2 GBs main memory & 1 GB GPU memory
Cell w/32-64 SPEs and 4-8 PPEs @ 28nm @ 3-5 Ghz
100's of GB/s bandwidth
Nvidia-derived GPU
160 GB drive?
16x Blu-ray (can read 200+ GB discs)?
$400?

2011? For these specs and price? Extremely unlikely. I think Sony is going to play the long term game with MS, since they both took such a beating financially to bring their respective consoles to market. Sony is close to breaking even on console manufacture, they wouldn't want to throw that away so soon. You might say they'll keep supporting the PS3 while they produce the PS4, but can they really get the current PS3 to manufacture under $200 by 2011? I'd expect a slim PS3 in 2009/2010 which could put Sony on the path to a significantly cheaper console.

Further, a next generation Cell of that level would be such overkill for a console in 2011, and incredibly expensive to produce. Not to mention being very unbalanced (overpowered) with respect to whatever GPU nvidia can offer in 2011. Also if Sony went with a Larabee powered GPU, there would be even less of a need for so many SPUs. The memory you've listed does seem like a practical amount.

Neither console will go over 16x speeds on their optical disc drives either, as noise and reliability become an issue. In fact, according to Wikipedia, the maximum theoretical speed for BD is 12x (54MByte/s). With ODD speeds becoming more limited, if they don't move to high speed SSDs, I hope they'll offer a high speed flash scratch space that developers can background stream to.

 

[grandmaster]

In any case with the big push of Digital Distribution currently underway I'd be surprised to see the next consoles from either party have any less than about 300-1000GB of HDD storage space in total (SSD and/or Magnetic Disc)..

My bet would be a decent-sized flash RAM for supporting the optical drive, but let's be honest - HDD storage space is something we're all going to be paying for as an optional extra.