Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Tahir2]

Flash drives, or SSD's, seriously vary in performance. It would just add more silicon to try and reduce or make more efficient in the "cost saving drive" for the consoles BOM. Look at PS3 compared to Xbox360 - Xbox360 has a much easier time saving costs whereas PS3 had to eventually ditch the ES+EE plus who knows what else.

Just wish there was a more elegant solution. Less chips = better! (? OK large L2 cache is always sexy )

As to the main crux of the debate over the past couple of pages:

I believe digital distribution is going to be bigger next gen than this gen (stating the obvious) and maybe more than just demo downloads or patches or add on's for games - however no way are we are ready for the next-gen to kill optical media and drives.

 

[Squilliam]

Due to cost. The multi gigabytes needed will cost so much more as a flash drive than optical disc. The only way flash could work this way is with the kiosk/download concept argued above.

Digital distribution seems unlikely. As does flash storage distribution. Looks like we're lumbered with an optical drive.

Besides flash makes sense no matter what other storage you have. If there's no optical and only an HDD for downloads, flash improves performance. If there is an optical drive...flash improves performance! The presence/absence of flash isn't tied to the presence/absence of any other drive. It's not a valid replacement for any other drives either. Each device offers a data advantage to the system, a differnt balance of cost per GB, portability, access performance, etc.

You make some pretty good points, but I think we need some more information.

Is there any validity in: http://www.semiconductor.net/article/CA632496.html

"Conclusions

Even with the well documented difficulties presented by the transition to 300 mm wafers, at IC Knowledge we believe the transition to 450 mm wafers will ultimately hinge on the relative cost of die produced on 450 mm wafers vs. 300 mm wafers. Based on modeling we have performed using the IC Knowledge — 2005 IC Cost Model and the assumption discussed above, we believe that die costs on 450 mm wafers in the 2012 time frame will be lower than the cost of a similar die produced on 300 mm wafers. Our conclusion is that, ultimately, 450 mm wafer fabs will one day be built."

I was kind of basing my argument somewhat on this information. So I figured rather than go around in circles its best to prove/disprove my source first.

 

[MfA]

A less than 33% cost reduction is not really going to make a huge difference, the standard scaling and increase in levels per cell are going to be major factors when looking at cost reduction in 2-3 years.

 

[Barbarian]

The leaked PSP Go specs suggest it comes with 16Gb of flash right now.
In 4 years for the same price we can have 2x-4x more and seems realistic to be included in a next gen console.

In regards to flash-as-game-medium, it is entirely plausible if the cost of the flash is paid by the consumer, This can work if buying games on flash is just ONE way to acquire the games. For example, imagine the following 3 tiers of acquiring games:

1) Direct download via internet - perfect for hardcore gamers with fast connections
2) Copy to your own flash via kiosks - perfect for hardcore gamers without fast internet
3) Buy game + flash for higher price - perfect for a gift and everything else not covered by 1 and 2

 

[Rangers]

The leaked PSP Go specs suggest it comes with 16Gb of flash right now.
In 4 years for the same price we can have 2x-4x more and seems realistic to be included in a next gen console.

Yeah, the fact a device which will be priced probably under $200, and has all the other hardware the PSP Go has in such a small form factor, is able to include 16GB of flash, just drives home how feasible this will be in next gen consoles. Heck by then 32GB should be easily affordable, and thats a lot of flash, be it for buffering or general storage.

I'm a big proponent of the fact you dont want to be saddled with the price of a mechanical HDD in your box, I think the Arcade was a great move for MS, in terms of sales. So I'd be interested in this as shipping in a Core type configuration, without a mechanical HDD (other more upscale models could include the mechanical HDD for vast storage).

So basically instead of a future Core/Arcade style SKU including a memory card amount of storage, it could easily include 16-32GB of flash (some GB's could be set aside for caching, and some for basic general storage), without being burdened by mechanical HDD cost, and everybody wins.

In fact I think thats what Sony needs to do with PS3 this generation really, but for whatever reason they dont seem to be making any moves that direction, which makes me wonder if it's a technical problem. The leaked PS3 slim would have been a ideal candidate to get flash, but instead we see it's coming with a 120GB HDD which obviously means mechanical.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Yeah, I'm pretty surprised by that, although it could be there are multiple PS3 Slim skus. The box could be for the high end model and there could still be a flash based 32GB (or whatever) model.

At any rate I think baseline configurations with a moderate amount of internal flash augmented by an optional internal HDD, and broad support for external drives and NAS devices is very likely in the next round.

 

[grandmaster]

Yeah, the fact a device which will be priced probably under $200...

Bearing in mind the price of a 16GB iPod Touch, I find the idea of the equivalent PSP being significantly cheaper somewhat difficult to believe. Regardless of the actual reality of the product (in many ways worse than the current SKU) I'm sure it's going to be launched as a premium product with a price to match.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I can get a 16GB USB drive for £19 delivered. Newegg has 16GB flash and SDHC for <$30. That suggests a worst-case BOM to include flash at $25ish, which isn't going to break the PSP bank. Especially with the savings from losing the UMD drive, and perhaps the smaller screen being cheaper to boot.

So regardless of how Sony position the PSP Go, either as a cheap entry to the handheld market or a premium portable media device, the cost to include large amounts of flash in the handheld isn't prohibitive, showing the choice to go with flash in a console, at least up to moderate amounts, is there for next gen. Although I think given a need for installs and the size of games, 64 GBs flash won't cut it, and a large HDD will still be needed.

 

[ban25]

In fact I think thats what Sony needs to do with PS3 this generation really, but for whatever reason they dont seem to be making any moves that direction, which makes me wonder if it's a technical problem. The leaked PS3 slim would have been a ideal candidate to get flash, but instead we see it's coming with a 120GB HDD which obviously means mechanical.

16 or 32 GB of flash is nothing. My 16 GB iPhone is full, and so is my 80 GB PS3.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Depends what you're doing with. If you use a lot of media, you want a proper (NAS) media store. If you don't, you don't need much at all. My 40GB PS3 HDD has had a minimum 20GBs free since I bought it. My PC's 40 GB drive fits everything I want, save photos that I need to burn to DVD. If installs are large next-gen, we'll want good capacity, but there's no real need for insane amounts of storage. A console is the wrong place for it. Better yet, Sony should release a PlayStation Media NAS device with always-on, RemotePlay accessed through a common portal across devices.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Yeah, the "Cell Storage" idea Kutaragi had wasn't bad. I don't want my console to be the storage point for all my media, I want it to be able to access all my media no matter where I'm storing it.

 

[TheChefO]

This Natal tech really throws an interesting wrinkle in the Wii2 path.

Where do they go from here? Wii in HD will be OK ... but honestly, are Wii gamers really interested in graphics? With that said, how do they out do the Natal system which takes the Wii concept to the Nth degree.

This tech is something I saw as a clear progression for Nintendo to grow into as an extension of the Wii concept ... I really don't see a clear path for them now.

Obviously, many gamers were (and are) brought into the gaming realm with Wii, and some will buy a Wii2 for that fact alone, but as we saw with ps2 => ps3 ... gamers will jump ship when an alternative is enticing enough.



Where do you all see Nintendo taking Wii2?

 

[Tahir2]

Motion sensing we got.
Full body motion feedback?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Well it appears to be able to recognize all body parts even down to facial recognition good enough to interpret a users emotions through facial features... It goes FAR beyond simple motion sensing.

Assuming presentation is accurately representing what it can do.

Regards,
SB

 

[ban25]

I imagine it will need very good lighting to perform as well as it did on stage. I doubt many people are going to have a studio set up in their living rooms complete with hot lights.

 

[TheChefO]

I imagine it will need very good lighting to perform as well as it did on stage. I doubt many people are going to have a studio set up in their living rooms complete with hot lights.

Infrared should fix that ...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

At this point, I'd say let's wait and see how Natal actually materialises as a real product. There's a lot of promise there but no guarantees it'll be delivered. As for next-gen hardware, I'm sure they were all moving in this direction anyway, and all three players would have something similar to offer next-gen, whether Natal was shown this gen or not.

 

[TheChefO]

Full body motion feedback?

I'm sure hardcore would eat it up, but most casuals aren't going to want to put on a head to toe suit just to game ...

It'll have to be plug and go ... no fuss.



Do they have a growth path that I'm missing here?

 

[TheChefO]

At this point, I'd say let's wait and see how Natal actually materialises as a real product. There's a lot of promise there but no guarantees it'll be delivered. As for next-gen hardware, I'm sure they were all moving in this direction anyway, and all three players would have something similar to offer next-gen, whether Natal was shown this gen or not.

Even if that's the case and they all have the exact same tech ... what compelling reason then is there for a casual gamer to buy WiiHD over xb720 or ps4?


This gen, the waggle was the hook. Next gen ...?

 

[V3]

Typically gimmick don't work twice. Nintendo will need to come out with a new gimmick and it won't be motion control. Motion control will just be a standard feature like shoulder buttons and analog stick and rumble in joypad.

I doubt they have any at the moment. They didn't have anything significant with DSi. But I am sure they are working at them.