Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[V3]

That would lead to a too expansive system imho.
A RV740 is around 4 times more powerful than the xenos in peak figure and it is likely more efficient at his job on top of that. Both Sony and MS are likely to have more powerful parts than that thus I believe the Wow factor will be there for console users. Consoles can't compete against high end Pc especially now power consumption for multi gpu card is too high.

Even what people consider high end PC doesn't have the wow factor to sell it self. Only small number of people can justified the cost for the improvement. Graphic gimmick worked once, but Moore's Law can't make it work anymore.

Even with the system I stated, which would give greater than 30 times speed up compare to current gen of consoles, I don't think enough gamers will be impressed with it's graphic to justify it's price tag.

So unless a console maker can find a way to really wow gamers with graphic gimmick compare to their competitors, it's not a worthwhile gimmick to pursue as selling point for the console they're creating. It'll just be like high end PC, expensive with only small number of gamers that'll appreciate the improvement in fidelity over competitors.

I think gamers’ convenience is a better gimmick compare to graphic.

 

[SG79]

I love the conveniences of digital distribution, but it's not a realistic solution for next generation at all (some of you touched on a number of issues already). I do expect it to have more of a presence than current gen (Sony did offer digital versions of some games that are also available on BD), but 100%? Not unless every viable consumer has the means to get their games as soon as they wish.

The retail outlet idea would crash and burn when you consider the masses of consumers on a typical day of a prolific title's release.

I still prefer owning discs myself, but owning games digitally has its perks. I bought the old RE games off the Japanese PSN as they were released, and they're sooo convenient.

 

[grandmaster]

If activation keys for physical media are introduced, this introduces a whole new world of pain - playing your game on your friend's system becomes impossible, siblings with their own consoles won't be able to share games etc etc. I would expect a massive legal challenge to such a move, followed by a humiliating climbdown.

 

[Crossbar]

There is probably a very good reason why Sony never put this patent in use.

Sony has said little about the technology, patented in Japan in 2000, or how it might be deployed. But speculation over Sony's plans has sparked a furor online as game fans and consumer advocates fret that the company may incorporate it into the upcoming PlayStation 3 console, due to hit stores this fall.

They worry that it would wipe out the $1-billion-a-year market for used games and could even prevent someone from playing their games at a friend's house.

It is not unusual for technology companies to patent innovations and then never incorporate them into products.

Documents filed in April 2000 with the U.S. Patent Office describe a method of copy protection by which the game system would verify a disc as legitimate, register the disc to that particular game console, then wipe out verification data so the disc would be rendered unreadable in other PlayStations.

"Since only titles for which legitimate software has actually been purchased and which have been initially registered in the machine table can be used, resale (so-called used software purchase) after purchase by an end user becomes practically impossible," according to the patent documents.

 

[liolio]

If activation keys for physical media are introduced, this introduces a whole new world of pain - playing your game on your friend's system becomes impossible, siblings with their own consoles won't be able to share games etc etc. I would expect a massive legal challenge to such a move, followed by a humiliating climbdown.

Actually I didn't think of "activation" more of "registration" the process could be transparent.
Also I think that this process should only kick in if you instal the game on a HDD meaning that you still can play second hand/friends games.
Games could be tied to gamertag instead of console, that would be a lot less bothering forthe end users.

In regard to legal side of thing I don't know but Ms Sony and BigN have army of layers so it's may be why we still haven't see this kind of process implemented.

 

[grandmaster]

It is also worth bearing in mind the climbdown over DRM seen on iTunes etc. The momentum is clearly moving towards the consumer in terms of ownership of what he buys.

 

[SG79]

If activation keys for physical media are introduced, this introduces a whole new world of pain - playing your game on your friend's system becomes impossible, siblings with their own consoles won't be able to share games etc etc. I would expect a massive legal challenge to such a move, followed by a humiliating climbdown.

This was one of the nasty rumours pre-PS3 launch.... can't quite remember what sparked it but it struck me as one of the most bizarre ones ever.

 

[Crossbar]

This was one of the nasty rumours pre-PS3 launch.... can't quite remember what sparked it but it struck me as one of the most bizarre ones ever.

If you read the full quote in the post three posts above yours, you´ll find out. ;-)

 

[AlNom]

If activation keys for physical media are introduced, this introduces a whole new world of pain - playing your game on your friend's system becomes impossible, siblings with their own consoles won't be able to share games etc etc. I would expect a massive legal challenge to such a move, followed by a humiliating climbdown.

For one thing, it completely undermines the rental industry. It won't just be the gamers complaining.

 

[Crossbar]

For one thing, it completely undermines the rental industry. It won't just be the gamers complaining.

The rental service may go DLC as well.

http://www.edge-online.com/news/sony-considering-downloadable-psp-rentals

 

[pc999]

A company like Best Buy or Walmart might have reason to fear digital distribution because of reduced game sales at their stores. So to make up for lost revenue on games Sony and MS will need to provide them incentive on the hardware side. If they can get a good $20 - $40 per console sold it would probably make up for the lost game sales.

But must gamers buy 3-5 games a year, if they make 5$ on each game, they would still lose a lot and a lot of money. Also 40$ more in price may prevent them from entering in some markets, unless they keep subsiding their consoles...

So unless a console maker can find a way to really wow gamers with graphic gimmick compare to their competitors, it's not a worthwhile gimmick to pursue as selling point for the console they're creating. It'll just be like high end PC, expensive with only small number of gamers that'll appreciate the improvement in fidelity over competitors.

I really hope so, thankfully there is some really interesting rumors going on.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

For one thing, it completely undermines the rental industry. It won't just be the gamers complaining.

Surely you can do time limited downloads? And then more convenient subscription services.

 

[RudeCurve]

Well, there are only few games that would run on a netbook at all, but my point was not to compare netbooks to consoles, but rather to highlight the fact that a similar transition to disc less device has happened already.
The faster internet speeds plus the advent of big'n'cheap flash cards have allowed for that.
All I'm saying is, by 2012/2013 flash will be even bigger and cheaper. Internet will be faster and even more people will have it. Cutting the optical drive would noticeably reduce the manufacturing/warranty costs.
The PSP is rumored to drop the UMD any day now. Of course the PSP is portable so that makes sense for right now (actually made sense even when it launched). Give the industry few more years and the same trend will spread outside of portable devices.

Those are still bad analogies. First of all Netbooks are designed for mainly light apps and internet use, unfortunately they aren't much cheaper than a much more powerful laptop that has a HDD and DVD drive bigger screen more RAM etc. It's not a good example of any general "trend". Netbooks are a less powerful "downgrade" to standard laptops while game consoles will always be more powerful "upgrades".

Second we are talking about the next gen console offerings here which again will likely come with at least a HDD if not both HDD + ODD. Next gen games will be even bigger so people will need a place to store it. I don't think a 1TB flash disk is going to be price competitive with a 1TB HDD in 3 years. ODDs don't even cost that much to include into a console, yet it offers many benefits. If next gen consoles do not come with ODDs standard they will need to offer optional external drives for people to transfer from ODD to HDD because they surely aren't going to download 20GB+ games over the net. Only when fiber optic broadbrand becomes standard with no caps will we see consoles without ODDs.

Third UMD was a FAILURE as a movie/game/music format so it made sense to get rid of it. Also since portable games are relatively small in size, it can be replaced by flash or even ROM. On a side note I'm not sure why some people are hardon for SSDs. They are just compromises.

In summary comparing portables to consoles is like comparing Netbooks to desktops.

 

[liolio]

Barbarian may be wrong but you should consider reading all his posts before before answering him

Plus I think there will be a bigger push towards episodic/DLC style content and the era of blu-ray size games will be over before it started.

He may be wrong about digital distribution or his position too ahead of his time but he have some arguments

 

[RudeCurve]

Yeah games will transition to chapters each costing $10....lol...same with movies...lol...all because somebody wanted to save $25 from a console purchase...lol.

lol some more...

 

[MfA]

If one of the "big 2" (as far as hardware is concerned, if not revenue) goes without optical it makes sense for the other not too ... 10$ in extra component costs is cheap for the competetive advantage of being able to bring out 50 GB game while your competitor only has a couple of GB to work with. Most games might be smaller, but just because you have an optical drive doesn't mean you can't still do digital downloads as well for those games, but there will still be a couple of big exclusives and PC ports which simply will not be able to be ported well to the console without an optical drive.

Nintendo is the only one who can really make do with smaller games IMO.

 

[RudeCurve]

Yep in 3 years a BD drive will be dirt cheap to include while giving the console a huge advantage not only for games storage but also HD movie storage. I could see a barebones SKU without a HDD like we have today than one without a ODD at least for the next console.

 

[nAo]

Optical drives are too damn slow, read speed doesn't scale, hope we can get rid of them in a cost effective way asap.

 

[RudeCurve]

Optical drives are too damn slow, read speed doesn't scale, hope we can get rid of them in a cost effective way asap.

But they are still faster than broadband.

 

[liolio]

Yeah games will transition to chapters each costing $10....lol...same with movies...lol...all because somebody wanted to save $25 from a console purchase...lol.

lol some more...

DLC are becoming more and more relevant as they find their audience. GTA4 DLC seems to have done really well, it may be the begining an this is only for SP. Episodic content has been for a while on the online side of things, think about the add on coming along various RPG/MMO and map packs. Some MP games have been played for a while (CoD4) but editors had to bring some freshness in the mix from time to time. The trend could very well extend to SP part of the game. It would be that bad if price properly. Games like GeoW, ME (for example) could be splitted in 5 instead of 3 with episode coming every year instead of every two years (the first release would obviously take much more time before shipping).
May be working on more reasonable updates could allow for more carreful attention.

People like series may be having episode every year (or more often depending on the content) is a great way to capitalyze on IP strength. We know that IP strentgh tend to lower as iterations go on, it could be a way of making the most of product/Ip while it's hot somehow the same hollywood "milk it"

But I think that you missed the point because somehow you missread my comment as offensive, you were pointing @20GB games I just point that Barbarian had consider this already and his opinion is that it won't happen. That was not mean or anything. He may be right games cost a lot to do as you know fill +20GB od data is costly. We could more games looking as "pilot" if it find his public then editor start milking. The financial risk is lower.
It's not about saving 25$ on hardware for editors and manufacturer it's about making more money:
Make the most of succesful IP=> beat it while it's hot
Kill second hand market=> more sales
And I'm scared that some episodic content could be priced way higher than 10$.

I'm just discussing I think too that it's a bit anticipated or too much of a risk for the manufacturer by the time next systems are released.A manufacturer doing this choice may end with tinier marketshare but may make more money out his user base, ensure editors support, increase its marging but it's still risky busyness as it would be a new business model in the videogame world.

Once again no pun intended